Bills keen on Alabama RB Najee Harris, per NBC Sports and Tony Pauline

[dave mcbride]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

First, you are mixing generations of RB's.   The Marshall Faulk type athletes don't even play RB anymore.    They make the big money playing CB or WR or S.    You can't draft a RB in round 1 anymore and assume he's going to ball out for 8-10 years.    As the level of athlete has decreased 26 has become the new 30.

 

Second........the best all purpose RB's in the league are a hodgepodge of guys like McCaffrey(1st round),  Kamara (3rd round) Aaron Jones (5th round) and Austin Ekeler(undrafted who caught 92 passes in 2019).    The Bills need speed.......the fastest RB's in the NFL over the past 3 seasons are probably Raheem Mostert and Philip Lindsay.......also both undrafted. 

 

I think you should take a closer look at who the best RB's in the NFL are.    And then eliminate guys like Zeke and Derrick Henry who need an offense tailored to them or at least need the ball handed to them 20+ times per game to have their full impact........because that doesn't make sense with a Josh Allen at QB.     

 

I don't know if there is even a "kind" of RB you can only find in round one.........but what I do know is that the kind the Bills need you can find all over the draft and in UDFA.    It's proven.

 

Did you see the Mark Gaughan column? Good piece. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/first-round-running-back-for-bills-what-history-and-analytics-say-about-the-idea/article_aa5d29a6-8e3e-11eb-97a7-5775771608b4.html

20 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I know about mixing generations of RBs. I did that intentionally. I did point out quite a few RBs that have been drafted recently though like McCaffery, Gurley, Elliott, and even guys in the last 15 to 20 years like Tomlinson and AP. Those guys are huge differences compared to a RB you draft in the 4th round. I feel like if you want a difference making, game breaking and speed type back that you need to find that guy in the first and maybe 2nd rounds. And again, I also feel like there is a difference between drafting a first round RB when you are a losing team as opposed to when you are a SB caliber team. 

That’s what the Gaughan column today focuses on. 

[Bray Wyatt]

49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Did you see the Mark Gaughan column? Good piece. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/first-round-running-back-for-bills-what-history-and-analytics-say-about-the-idea/article_aa5d29a6-8e3e-11eb-97a7-5775771608b4.html

That’s what the Gaughan column today focuses on. 

The next question he should have asked would be if so, is it worth using a 1st round pick on a player you don’t expect to be there after 4 years? I think ultimately the answer is no, and I am not one that would hate a rb at 30 as I get the train of thought, but for long term planning purposes of a franchise it’s not the move.

 

If we want to draft a rb, I say trade back to the top of rd 2 and get more picks 

[JaCrispy]

Too slow...and we already have 2 RB’s slowing down our offense...

 

I hate the idea of drafting a RB in round 1, but if we do I would rather have Etienne or J. Williams...Harris does nothing for me- but what do I know? Lol

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Did you see the Mark Gaughan column? Good piece. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/first-round-running-back-for-bills-what-history-and-analytics-say-about-the-idea/article_aa5d29a6-8e3e-11eb-97a7-5775771608b4.html

That’s what the Gaughan column today focuses on. 

 

 

I wouldn't call it a good piece.  Meh.

 

Too many omissions.

 

He thoroughly presents the pro-drafting a RB in round 1 side........which is admittedly a small/weak argument so it's easier to cover..........and undersold just how bad of a proposition drafting RB's in round 1.......especially after the top 10 picks......has been.

 

And he almost entirely omits the opportunity cost of taking a RB.

 

Things change FAST in the NFL........the Bills aren't totally set up everywhere for 5 years........they could be absolutely desperate for help on the lines or secondary in 2 seasons and not have enough money to address those key positions with quality......we just don't know.

 

That's why you should treat the early part of the draft to build the long term foundation of your team..........and RB's are never that.

 

The Chiefs drafted CEH.........that is sold as something of a win..........but in reality he basically performed like Devin Singletary when he got the ball last season.........they tried to upgrade on him with LeVeon Bell(which failed because Bell was shot).

 

I don't think Harris or Etienne are better prospects than CEH.........but fwiw, Etienne is spun as wildly productive and durable...........it's not mentioned how his ypc dropped from 7.8 to 5.2 in his senior year.......and if that's maybe because he's already had well over 800 touches on his smallish frame.   Also,  he actually sucks at KOR's.........maybe because 4.44 is pretty fast for a RB nowadays.....but not REALLY exceptionally fast for a skill position.

 

I think a big part of this issue with these RB's is something I've already touched on..........they AREN'T the athletes that once populated the position.   A guy like Etienne is probably nothing more than a reserve NFL RB in the 80's and 90's.   Guys like that couldn't take the pounding and keep producing.

 

Gaughan wants to sell the idea that what you sacrifice long term with RB's.......you make up with concentrated impact.    But in reality even the Zekes and Barkley's and McCaffreys are probably only going to give you 3 exceptional years out of 5.   And those are the "HR", generational types.    The track record outside those types that are taken in round 1 is abysmal. 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I wouldn't call it a good piece.  Meh.

 

Too many omissions.

 

He thoroughly presents the pro-drafting a RB in round 1 side........which is admittedly a small/weak argument so it's easier to cover..........and undersold just how bad of a proposition drafting RB's in round 1.......especially after the top 10 picks......has been.

 

And he almost entirely omits the opportunity cost of taking a RB.

 

Things change FAST in the NFL........the Bills aren't totally set up everywhere for 5 years........they could be absolutely desperate for help on the lines or secondary in 2 seasons and not have enough money to address those key positions with quality......we just don't know.

 

That's why you should treat the early part of the draft to build the long term foundation of your team..........and RB's are never that.

 

The Chiefs drafted CEH.........that is sold as something of a win..........but in reality he basically performed like Devin Singletary when he got the ball last season.........they tried to upgrade on him with LeVeon Bell(which failed because Bell was shot).

 

I don't think Harris or Etienne are better prospects than CEH.........but fwiw, Etienne is spun as wildly productive and durable...........it's not mentioned how his ypc dropped from 7.8 to 5.2 in his senior year.......and if that's maybe because he's already had well over 800 touches on his smallish frame.   Also,  he actually sucks at KOR's.........maybe because 4.44 is pretty fast for a RB nowadays.....but not REALLY exceptionally fast for a skill position.

 

I think a big part of this issue with these RB's is something I've already touched on..........they AREN'T the athletes that once populated the position.   A guy like Etienne is probably nothing more than a reserve NFL RB in the 80's and 90's.   Guys like that couldn't take the pounding and keep producing.

 

Gaughan wants to sell the idea that what you sacrifice long term with RB's.......you make up with concentrated impact.    But in reality even the Zekes and Barkley's and McCaffreys are probably only going to give you 3 exceptional years out of 5.   And those are the "HR", generational types.    The track record outside those types that are taken in round 1 is abysmal. 

 

 

I do think he starts out by stressing that what is effectively your position dominates the nfl, and for good reason. He then shifts to contrarians arguing otherwise, and frankly i was more interested in their views because the conventional wisdom—which I agree with—is old hat at this point.  He could have done something with the interesting argument that you should only keep rbs for their first four years by adding that, as you say, there’s an opportunity cost with this approach (i.e., drafting an o-lineman in the first instead who might be be a steady 10-year contributor for you).

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I do think he starts out by stressing that what is effectively your position dominates the nfl, and for good reason. He then shifts to contrarians arguing otherwise, and frankly i was more interested in their views because the conventional wisdom—which I agree with—is old hat at this point.  He could have done something with the interesting argument that you should only keep rbs for their first four years by adding that, as you say, there’s an opportunity cost with this approach (i.e., drafting an o-lineman in the first instead who might be be a steady 10-year contributor for you).

 

It's funny though that there is this perception that wear and tear STARTS to accumulate at the pro level.

 

Between Harris and Etienne we are talking about almost 1600 touches already between carries, catches and returns.    That's a lot of collisions at a very high level of college football.

 

Alabama and Clemson might have already squeezed out a lot of that first contract production.

 

And perhaps that's one reason why so many first round RB's turn into outright disappointments or busts.

 

They are in an evaluator's blind spot.........too productive in college to ignore.......if you squint and tilt your head they may seem like a worthwhile risk at 30.........but the impact of their existing mileage is hard to quantify.

 

 

[LyndonvilleBill]

Still not sold on a RB at 30, but, I'll keep an open mind for now. 

 

Was doing some reading and came across these 2 articles (many more out there). Sounds like we are not the only ones that ask the question, Which one is better? Just found them interesting coming from the outside... one from November and the other a little more recent. 

 

 

 

https://thegameday.com/6669/article/najee-harris-vs-travis-etienne-whos-2021-nfl-drafts-top-running-back/

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/najee-harris-travis-etienne-who-is-top-2021-rb1-nfl-draft/

[Rochesterfan]

On 3/27/2021 at 11:35 AM, Figster said:

 

I understand the skepticism on trading up for Najee Harris. My most respected poster on this board when it comes to football is against it.( @Rochesterfan )

 

The Buffalo Bills would have to make a big change in how they view the importance of having an above average run game IMO.  Not much doubt in my mind had Buffalo committed themselves to running the football Singletary would have had a more productive season. If Buffalo drafts Harris running the football will have to be more then just an afterthought.

 

 

 

 

 

I understand why people love Harris (I also get why they don’t).  He was an undeniable force in college and you can see the Henry comparison and ability with better hands and catch radius.

 

My feeling on Harris is he played on the best team with an o-line that has 7-8 guys better than any defensive lineman they played.  The holes and the time were always there for him (and his back-up) to easily run through to produce.

 

My fear is that he has average speed for a RB and therefore once the OLine becomes average and the defense becomes faster - many of those elite runs evaporate.  
 

If he had Elite speed - then maybe his YPC could translate or he could breakaway on swing passes, but I honestly think with his speed - he becomes a potential 3 down average back.  Probably a bit better than Moss or Singletary, but not elite and at this level I think he becomes Sony Michel or Damien Harris - especially if he could get the Pats OLine versus most other teams.

[Figster]

44 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I understand why people love Harris (I also get why they don’t).  He was an undeniable force in college and you can see the Henry comparison and ability with better hands and catch radius.

 

My feeling on Harris is he played on the best team with an o-line that has 7-8 guys better than any defensive lineman they played.  The holes and the time were always there for him (and his back-up) to easily run through to produce.

 

My fear is that he has average speed for a RB and therefore once the OLine becomes average and the defense becomes faster - many of those elite runs evaporate.  
 

If he had Elite speed - then maybe his YPC could translate or he could breakaway on swing passes, but I honestly think with his speed - he becomes a potential 3 down average back.  Probably a bit better than Moss or Singletary, but not elite and at this level I think he becomes Sony Michel or Damien Harris - especially if he could get the Pats OLine versus most other teams.

Its an understandable position to take. So while I think power may help make up for the lack of barn burner speed. Without the strong emphasis on the run game and big bodied and talented oline bama/Saban implements your assesment is a reason for concern. 

 

Thanks, always much appreciated to hear your thoughts. Especially on what would be a 1st round draft selection Buffalo needs to have an imediate impact from on a team eyeing its 1st championship.  

Edited March 29, 2021 by Figster

[Rochesterfan]

11 minutes ago, Figster said:

Its an understandable position to take. So while I think power may help make up for the lack of barn burner speed. Without the strong emphasis on the run game and big bodied and talented oline bama/Saban implements your assesment is a reason for concern. 

 

Thanks, always much appreciated to hear your thoughts. Especially on what would be a 1st round draft selection Buffalo needs to have an imediate impact from on a team eyeing its 1st championship.  

 

If the Bills interview him and feel he can be a difference maker - I am on board.  He has shown some elite character traits in his time and leadership.

 

My concerns are what they are.  His talent caught the eye of the best program in football and I hate to criticize him because of the talent on that team, but to me many Alabama players suffer from the same issue NE players suffered from.  They were so much better on a specific team with a specific scheme and they do not fit into every other team/scheme.

 

Since there is no film of him running behind the ND line for example - we have to base on what we see.  The question becomes how much to teams subtract because of the value of the position and the talent around him?

 

I think right around 30 is a great spot for him to go - I am just not sure with our pass first offense that he is the fit.  I could see TB loving the pick (not that they need a RB), but I am not sure Buffalo is the best landing spot.

[Just Joshin']

I am trying to imagine this draft day conversation.......

 

Beane:  Terry, I want to go RB in the draft.  I know Edge and CB are weak and we need depth on the OL/LB but adding a RB will put us over the top.  I know I just drafted 2 RBS and signed Breida but time I will get it right.

 

Pegula:  How did you win Executive of the Year?

[Rochesterfan]

1 minute ago, Just Joshin' said:

I am trying to imagine this draft day conversation.......

 

Beane:  Terry, I want to go RB in the draft.  I know Edge and CB are weak and we need depth on the OL/LB but adding a RB will put us over the top.  I know I just drafted 2 RBS and signed Breida but time I will get it right.

 

Pegula:  How did you win Executive of the Year?

 

More like Pegula:  You are Executive of the Year and you just took us to 13-3 and an AFCCG.  It is your call - I am on board 100%.

 

Who should the Sabres trade now?

[Figster]

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

If the Bills interview him and feel he can be a difference maker - I am on board.  He has shown some elite character traits in his time and leadership.

 

My concerns are what they are.  His talent caught the eye of the best program in football and I hate to criticize him because of the talent on that team, but to me many Alabama players suffer from the same issue NE players suffered from.  They were so much better on a specific team with a specific scheme and they do not fit into every other team/scheme.

 

Since there is no film of him running behind the ND line for example - we have to base on what we see.  The question becomes how much to teams subtract because of the value of the position and the talent around him?

 

I think right around 30 is a great spot for him to go - I am just not sure with our pass first offense that he is the fit.  I could see TB loving the pick (not that they need a RB), but I am not sure Buffalo is the best landing spot.

I agree, from a  leadership and good character standpoint Harris fits the Bill as a process player for McD.

 

I can also see TB loving the pick. Not a Buc fan by any means. With that being said Tampa and Najee Harris are a match made in football heaven IMO. 

[ColoradoBills]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's funny though that there is this perception that wear and tear STARTS to accumulate at the pro level.

 

Between Harris and Etienne we are talking about almost 1600 touches already between carries, catches and returns.    That's a lot of collisions at a very high level of college football.

 

Alabama and Clemson might have already squeezed out a lot of that first contract production.

 

And perhaps that's one reason why so many first round RB's turn into outright disappointments or busts.

 

They are in an evaluator's blind spot.........too productive in college to ignore.......if you squint and tilt your head they may seem like a worthwhile risk at 30.........but the impact of their existing mileage is hard to quantify.

 

 

 

It's one of the intriguing things about Javonte Williams.

I'm not a huge college fan but he is one I want to know more about. 

[ganesh]

On 3/26/2021 at 10:49 PM, SCBills said:

Doubt it.  5th or 6th maybe.  
 

Decent rookie year.  Terrible sophomore year.  Teams will see the promise he showed as a rookie, but only 2 years left on his rookie deal.  

or they could trade Moss and retain Singletary for higher draft capital

[Fan in Chicago]

13 minutes ago, ganesh said:

or they could trade Moss and retain Singletary for higher draft capital

I doubt that the Bills will bail on Moss so soon. He is also a hard runner so perhaps the Bills are looking for a speedier back. They set the floor by getting Breida.

 

Singletary though is in a weird place for the Bills - bad sophomore outing at an undervalued position. There is little return they can get for him.

The question returns to the source of the problems with the running game. If the FO believes in Ford and adds a C/G in 2nd or 3rd round, they may think about giving Singletary another year.

 

But I do agree with BADOL and others - tough to argue in favor of drafting a RB (any running back) at #30 when we can use help on the lines, LB and CB position. If I were to guess, the Bills wont draft a RB till round 5 or later cos they think they have adequate quantity and variety at the position now. Spend the top 3 picks on one of the above positions or a S/LB hybrid.    

Edited March 30, 2021 by Fan in Chicago

[Turk71]

19 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I doubt that the Bills will bail on Moss so soon. He is also a hard runner so perhaps the Bills are looking for a speedier back. They set the floor by getting Breida.

 

Singletary though is in a weird place for the Bills - bad sophomore outing at an undervalued position. There is little return they can get for him.

The question returns to the source of the problems with the running game. If the FO believes in Ford and adds a C/G in 2nd or 3rd round, they may think about giving Singletary another year.

 

But I do agree with BADOL and others - tough to argue in favor of drafting a RB (any running back) at #30 when we can use help on the lines, LB and CB position. If I were to guess, the Bills wont draft a RB till round 5 or later cos they think they have adequate quantity and variety at the position now. Spend the top 3 picks on one of the above positions or a S/LB hybrid.    

Adequate quantity and variety at rb?

Who is the Bill's power back? 205lb Moss?

What you need is a 3 down guy who can do it all. Then you're never signalling your intentions.

  Quantity and variety? How about the things that matter the most, talent and team fit? 

  Harris would be a beast in a spread offense, forcing defenders back into the box and opening up the field. The guys the Bills have need more run blocking focus and the Bills line isn't built for that.

  I'm not saying the Bills should necessarily move up for him, but if he's there at 30.....

 

[DCOrange]

 

[PirateHookerMD]

Rapoport with a straight up "copy paste" job from whatever Najaee's agent texted him. 

[RichRiderBills]

On 3/27/2021 at 9:31 AM, OldTimer1960 said:

Again, OL run blocking was pretty bad last year.  You might note that Etienne “regressed” statistically last year with a lesser OL than he had year before.

 

Sure, and QB flux where teams could stack boxes. Still had over 1500 AP yards and 16 total TDs. Regression or not, I'm pretty comfortable Etienne is a huge upgrade.