My Draft Thoughts

[ColoradoBills]

Don't want them trading up in the 1st.  Maybe trade down a few spots with the 1st but I don't see teams who would be interested at the top of the 2nd.

Maybe Atlanta at #35.  I wouldn't go lower than that.  Bills need quality players to break into the roster not quantity IMO.

That would net a 4th (which the Bills don't have).

 

Probably best to stick where they are at for the 1st 2 rounds.

Beane likes to do something like using a 5th to move up a little in the 3rd to get "his guy".

 

BPA with the 1st 3 rounds in the positions of CB/RB/TE/DE/OL (not in any order) would be fine with me.

The later rounds are going to have a hard time breaking the roster.  McDermott and Beane might go LB/DB there.

They seem to spot some talent there.

 

[RichRiderBills]

My #1 Target is Kaderious Toney

 

This is the electric guy we need.

 

Year one he fills in for Andre KR/PR and we ease him into McKenzie role. 

 

Keep in mind, Sanders is a 1 year deal. McKenzie is still likely a fill in guy who will always be under the gun. I personally think McKenzie has too limited a use to be a long term. 

 

#2 choice for that first pick is Etienne #3 is Hariss #4 BPA

 

Bills are in great shape with this pick.

Edited March 25, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[billsfan89]

I think the key word for this draft is impact. This team retained a 13 win talent base but now it needs to find those last 2 to 3 pieces needed to get this team over the top. At picks 30 and 62 along with the rest of their selections it is going to be difficult to get the impact they need out of an Edge rusher. 
 

Rarely do edge rushers click in their first years even ones drafted up high. I think if I am the Bills I am targeting an NT at pick 30 and a DE at pick 62. A true run stuffing NT with some pass rush upside is something that should be available at pick 30 and can help the team short and long term. Then at pick 62 you take a chance on a pass rusher who can help take over once Hughes and Addison are gone. 
 

Round 3 I dip into what is supposed to be a deep tackle class and draft some depth for the Oline and just take depth pieces in round 5 to round out the team.

[RichRiderBills]

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think the key word for this draft is impact. This team retained a 13 win talent base but now it needs to find those last 2 to 3 pieces needed to get this team over the top. At picks 30 and 62 along with the rest of their selections it is going to be difficult to get the impact they need out of an Edge rusher. 
 

Rarely do edge rushers click in their first years even ones drafted up high. I think if I am the Bills I am targeting an NT at pick 30 and a DE at pick 62. A true run stuffing NT with some pass rush upside is something that should be available at pick 30 and can help the team short and long term. Then at pick 62 you take a chance on a pass rusher who can help take over once Hughes and Addison are gone. 
 

Round 3 I dip into what is supposed to be a deep tackle class and draft some depth for the Oline and just take depth pieces in round 5 to round out the team.

 

My big belief is that the pass rush was not a total disaster last year and we may be stronger rushing as well in 2021 for a few reasons;

 

A. I like the potential of this new Efe dude.

B. Addison may play better.

C. Healthier Milano amd Edwards good for blitzes.

D. Epenesa flashed and I see promise.

E. Whole DL may click better w a healthy, rested, Star back in. 

[Motorin']

11 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

We don't have enough open roster spots to fill if we stand pat and draft where we stand.  Trading back and accumulating more picks just so we can cut these guys later does not make much sense to me.

 

Are you sure about that? I think when you subtract the practice squad guys, there are 9 open roster spots currently. 

[Fred Slacks]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The more guys you draft the better your chances of finding an extra good one somewhere. Even if you don't end up keeping them all, you might find that you're cutting your 5th rounder but keeping the second 6th rounder - the one you thought about trading away - because he has surprised you.

 

Again, there have been scholarly studies done on what trading up and trading down does to your odds of success. Massey and Thaler is the most famous, the Harvard Sports Collective is also well-known, but at this point there have been dozens and they all find the same thing. Worth noting that these guys aren't dummies. Thaler has won a Nobel prize. Ever study finds that when you give up valuable assets to move up (and you absolutely will have to give up a valuable asset to trade up to #18 or #20 as you're saying here) your odds of success drop. A lot.

 

 

 

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/malmendier/e218_sp06/Thaler.pdf

 

 

 

Trading away lower round guys isn't such a big deal, but giving up higher-round valuable picks is simply a bad idea. The idea is that GMs - being human - aren't as smart as they think they are and would do better to keep more picks, especially earlier ones, to give them more chances. The exception is trading up for a QB when you haven't got one. Those guys are so important, and generally unavailable except when picked early, that trading up for one makes sense. Otherwise, it doesn't.

 

This.  People kept saying we were good at WR last year after grabbing Diggs int he trade.  We added Davis and the 6th rounder.  Davis was a pleasant surprise and the 6th rounder people seem to think has potential.  but no one knows.  We got Milano in the 5th 4 years ago.  We didn't target him otherwise he would have been drafted higher.  That is where he was graded out on our board when we drafted.  Lest we forget John McCargo/Kyle Williams 1st and 5th round picks in the same year.  

 

We still have like 20 spots to fill for camp.  They will draft as many players they can.  Maybe one or two moves if they really like someone they feel is slipping.  But they need cheap labor to take into camp.

 

Myself I want CB2, DE wrecker (not likely to happen where we are drafting), DT 1 tech, & TE.  In that order.  TE I would prefer a FA and DE I just don't feel like there will be a game changer where we pick.  If they grab a CB on the first night (move up or at pick 30) then I will feel like this draft was successful no matter what the other picks are. 

[Jauronimo]

17 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Are you sure about that? I think when you subtract the practice squad guys, there are 9 open roster spots currently. 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/3/23/22344582/resetting-the-buffalo-bills-2021-roster-jon-feliciano-mitchell-trubisky-emmanuel-sanders-josh-allen

 

Thats 63 players by my count.  What am I missing?

[Motorin']

7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/3/23/22344582/resetting-the-buffalo-bills-2021-roster-jon-feliciano-mitchell-trubisky-emmanuel-sanders-josh-allen

 

Thats 63 players by my count.  What am I missing?

 

16 - 17 of those guys are practice squad level players.  

Edited March 25, 2021 by Motorin'

[glazeduck]

50 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think the key word for this draft is impact. This team retained a 13 win talent base but now it needs to find those last 2 to 3 pieces needed to get this team over the top. At picks 30 and 62 along with the rest of their selections it is going to be difficult to get the impact they need out of an Edge rusher. 
 

Rarely do edge rushers click in their first years even ones drafted up high. I think if I am the Bills I am targeting an NT at pick 30 and a DE at pick 62. A true run stuffing NT with some pass rush upside is something that should be available at pick 30 and can help the team short and long term. Then at pick 62 you take a chance on a pass rusher who can help take over once Hughes and Addison are gone. 
 

Round 3 I dip into what is supposed to be a deep tackle class and draft some depth for the Oline and just take depth pieces in round 5 to round out the team.

You're looking for impact and then drafting a backup, 2-down DL and a developmental pass rusher? 

[Jauronimo]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

16 practice squad guys. 

53 is the size of an NFL roster + 16 Practice Squad Players = 69 (nice). There are currently 63 players on the roster, the majority of which are returning starters and depth from a team that went to the AFC Championship and some newly signed FAs.  We had minimal roster turnover and there are few obvious holes on this team.  We have 7 picks in the draft and then there is the annual scramble for undrafted free agents as well as cut down casualties.

 

If this team was some bottom feeder or had just been pilfered in FA, then I'd agree.  If there is enough room for all 7 picks its only because Beane had an immaculate draft.  Trading back for more picks as others are suggesting makes no sense to me.

[Motorin']

Just now, Jauronimo said:

53 is the size of an NFL roster + 16 Practice Squad Players = 69 (nice). There are currently 63 players on the roster, the majority of which are returning starters and depth from a team that went to the AFC Championship and some newly signed FAs.  We had minimal roster turnover and there are few obvious holes on this team.  We have 7 picks in the draft and then there is the annual scramble for undrafted free agents as well as cut down casualties.

 

If this team was some bottom feeder or had just been pilfered in FA, then I'd agree.  If there is enough room for all 7 picks its only because Beane had an immaculate draft.  Trading back for more picks as others are suggesting makes no sense to me.

 

I'm saying 16/17 of the 63 listed on the current roster are practice squad players... But as far as draft strategy, I think there's room to draft solid contributors / game changers at CB2, DE, RB, WR, TE, 1Tech, BIG NICKEL & SAM. That's 8 positions we could upgrade, and we could always use another stud on the Oline.  

 

I'm not saying we will hit on that many ballers, but there's a better chance of hitting when you trade back and have 9 picks vs. trading up and having 5 picks. 

 

But I hear what you're saying about trading up twice to land 2 legitimate starters.

[billsfan89]

50 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

You're looking for impact and then drafting a backup, 2-down DL and a developmental pass rusher? 

 

I see an NT as having a big impact as I am not really sure of Star this upcoming season, first off one injury to Star and this team has no proven NT, secondly even if Star turns in a decent season depth is needed. I think the NT position is a far bigger need than some here realize. The developmental pass rusher part is more so a longer term need fill and not immediate impact. 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

We don't have enough open roster spots to fill if we stand pat and draft where we stand.  Trading back and accumulating more picks just so we can cut these guys later does not make much sense to me.

 

Plenty of places for rookies:

 

RB -  Yeldon's spot is open.   Singletary is productive but replaceable.   Moss seems more physically beat up than advertised.   I could see him being RB1 or even off the roster entirely.

 

WR - Got 5 regulars back but they could carry 7 and none of the depth guys like Duke or Hodgins or Kumerow are special talents.

 

TE - Definitely room for a rookie TE on the roster.

 

OL - Bates is the only veteran reserve under contract......possibly multiple spots open.

 

DL - Need a pass rushing DE and and young DT1T.........they could cut, trade, IR or release vets to make room for better, cheap young talent.

 

LB - Have 4 locks.......but one that really plays ST only........definitely could use one on a rookie deal for sure.

 

CB - Dane Jackson might be too fragile......Wallace and Johnson are in walk years.......definitely can see a rookie making the team.

 

S - Both of the backups are replaceable.........especially if a rookie was able to come in and also play that big nickel spot.

 

 

[glazeduck]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I see an NT as having a big impact as I am not really sure of Star this upcoming season, first off one injury to Star and this team has no proven NT, secondly even if Star turns in a decent season depth is needed. I think the NT position is a far bigger need than some here realize. The developmental pass rusher part is more so a longer term need fill and not immediate impact. 

NTs are becoming less important by the year. Even if Star wasn't on the roster and the rookie were to start immediately, that wouldn't be good value. Not to mention there's no fits for what you're looking for -- Tyler Shelvin is the only DT on TDN's top 12 DTs that weighs above 315 and there's absolutely no way he's worth a first round pick. Beyond that there are affordable options in free agency and plenty of gap holders that will be found late in the draft. Drafting a backup NT, when you can draft a starting CB, TE, G, possibly DE is not going to have the impact that you're looking for.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

My big belief is that the pass rush was not a total disaster last year and we may be stronger rushing as well in 2021 for a few reasons;

 

A. I like the potential of this new Efe dude.

B. Addison may play better.

C. Healthier Milano amd Edwards good for blitzes.

D. Epenesa flashed and I see promise.

E. Whole DL may click better w a healthy, rested, Star back in. 

 

The pass rush last year in my opinion was average to slightly above average. I don't think the pass rush was necessarily bad last year. My issue is that to have success consistently in the playoffs you need a very good or better pass rush, esp against Patrick Mahomes. I am not sure if they even draft an edge at pick 30 that an edge rusher is going to have a big enough impact year one to take a decent/solid pass rush and get it to improve dramatically. 

[Patrick Duffy]

18 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I’m thinking they move back and draft for depth on the roster. Just read that Addison restructure makes him a FA next season. Unless a Surtain/Collins/Horn drops to 30, I want the Bills to trade back. No 1st rd RB please

I think so too. Obviously depends on how things play out with who falls etc, but yeah it's a good possibility they do that.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

NTs are becoming less important by the year. Even if Star wasn't on the roster and the rookie were to start immediately, that wouldn't be good value. Not to mention there's no fits for what you're looking for -- Tyler Shelvin is the only DT on TDN's top 12 DTs that weighs above 315 and there's absolutely no way he's worth a first round pick. Beyond that there are affordable options in free agency and plenty of gap holders that will be found late in the draft. Drafting a backup NT, when you can draft a starting CB, TE, G, possibly DE is not going to have the impact that you're looking for.

 

We saw the importance of an NT last year, but I will admit ignorance as to the top prospects that will likely be available. I am fully trusting in the valuation of McBenae and if they go BPA or edge rusher. For once it is great that the draft is not trying to be the biggest part of the off-season and trying to save the direction of the team. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

18 hours ago, wagne591 said:

We have a pretty good roster as it sits right now and there is now way 7 draft prospects make the roster or even come close. This is what I would do if I were Beane. Here are the Bills picks as it stands now:

Round Pick

1           30    Bills original selection

2           61    Bills original selection

3           93    Bills original selection

5           161 Acquired from Raiders for Zay Jones

5           174 Bills original selection

6           213 Bills original selection

7        *236 Acquired from Panthers for Marshall Newhouse

 

I would pin point 2 or three guys that you love and you think would help this team out day 1 (either by creating competition or starting) and use all the draft pick to maneuver the board to make it work. 

 

I would trade pick 30 and 93 to move up in the first round ( you wont get a top 10 but you can probably get as high as 18 to the mid 20's

I would trade pick 61 and 161 to move up in the second round (you might get as high as pick 45 by doing this) 

you could use the last three picks 174, 213, and 236 to maneuver in the later rounds. and if he didn't trade any of those picks the picks would be camp bodies and we would draft 5 guys instead of 7. It would also give us 2 picks in the top 45 instead of 4 picks in the top 161 and only one pick in the top 45. 

 

I am just playing around here but it would be nice. Plus if you were one of those guys drafted by this team rounds 5-7 you probably know in your heart you have little chance of playing on the opening day roster.

 

18 hours ago, wagne591 said:

 

 

 

 

18 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I’m thinking they move back and draft for depth on the roster. Just read that Addison restructure makes him a FA next season. Unless a Surtain/Collins/Horn drops to 30, I want the Bills to trade back. No 1st rd RB please

 

IMO the Bills are in a different situation this year than prior years in that the team is trying to win now in 2021, so need to not do anything to weaken 2021 roster.  The Bills have 8 D-lineman that contributed to the 2020 teams success, plus now add Star back in plus the new guy Obada. 

 

Drafting Addision's replacement now adds 11, no way they carry 11 D-lineman on their 53 so that means cutting someone to make room for the rookie, the likely names would be Johnson or Zimmer who also BTW are still on cheap contracts too.  I have a hard time seeing a rookie and maybe a lower drafted rookie at that coming in and being better than guys with 2 + years NFL experience and already experienced in this defense in 2021.  Would the rookie potentially help the team more in around 2023, sure, but they are in a win now mode.

 

As far as Addison's replacement, they may have just signed him in Obada if he is as good as many here think.  Just like Daryl Williams this year, they could sign him to an extension prior to next year start of free agency.  And likely if he doesn't pan out, then they look to sign the top FA edge rusher next year as likely have money then.  Maybe they even do both.  If you want to pick a D-lineman with a late pick, 5th round or lower could chance placing him on the PS, but not if drafted any higher.

 

To me you want to slot your draft picks in positions where they can add to improvement of the roster in 2021 without immediate weakening the roster by cutting someone, to me that would be:   #2 CB, depth at CB, O-line(Backups only play due to injury, and maybe LB.

 

So agree with OP in that can't see all 7 picks making the roster, but would also like to keep three picks in first three rounds.  I'd more go for something like trade 1st and 2nd round picks to move up to around 21st in 1st round, but also get around a 21st pick in 3rd round so we'd now have a  higher 1st and 2 later round 3rds. Then would try and take my two 5th, plus one of 3rds to move up higher in 3rd round to around 20th.  Draft point chart validates I'm not in the weeds with value of picks.

 

Overall then picking 21st in round one and 20th and 21st in round three, plus still have 6th and 7th rounder.  Those are safe picks to dump to PS with little worry.  If I were Beane I'd try and make a couple moves for that.

[LyndonvilleBill]

I'm thinking trade back out of the 1st (maybe ATL? But not too far) pick up a 3rd or 4th. 1st pick, CB, 2nd pick s/lb/big nickel, 3rd NT (Shelvin or McNeill), 4th RB (R. Stevenson or Chris Evans, power type) then who knows.. TE, DE, OC/G..

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by LyndonvilleBill

[somnus00]

18 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

We don't have enough open roster spots to fill if we stand pat and draft where we stand.  Trading back and accumulating more picks just so we can cut these guys later does not make much sense to me.

I'd say that we're top heavy with plenty of holes. This team needs more depth at several key spots. Maybe even a starting CB2 and Guard. Just because someone is currently on the 53 man roster, doesn't mean he can't be improved upon with a draft pick. More ammo means more chances to hit on a few picks.

 

Just my opinion on the matter. I'm not saying you're wrong. We just see things differently.