My Draft Thoughts

[MAJBobby]

I have 15-18 1st round graded players in my grades. So without even looking who is on the board (can’t until draft) I am looking at grades. 
 

so unless I can get to 15. I am not trading up. To be honest I am more in line with people that will never advocate for a Trade Up unless it is for a QB. 
 

so now looking at 30 (again this is all before draft even starts) the value with 30 is the 5th year option at this point. I am willing to collect picks for that 5th year option. 
 

now that we have started paying our homegrown talent and Josh will get paid pretty soon draft picks become vital they are your ticket to play the Draft Craps game. Yes it is informed gambling but still a gamble. Have to start thinking the more tickets you have to play the more chances at finding players that contribute early. 
 

just cause the ticket is in the later rounds it is still a ticket and can Hit a Milano, Davis, Williams etc etc. 

[ChevyVanMiller]

9 hours ago, wagne591 said:

We have a pretty good roster as it sits right now and there is now way 7 draft prospects make the roster or even come close. This is what I would do if I were Beane. Here are the Bills picks as it stands now:

Round Pick

1           30    Bills original selection

2           61    Bills original selection

3           93    Bills original selection

5           161 Acquired from Raiders for Zay Jones

5           174 Bills original selection

6           213 Bills original selection

7        *236 Acquired from Panthers for Marshall Newhouse

 

I would pin point 2 or three guys that you love and you think would help this team out day 1 (either by creating competition or starting) and use all the draft pick to maneuver the board to make it work. 

 

I would trade pick 30 and 93 to move up in the first round ( you wont get a top 10 but you can probably get as high as 18 to the mid 20's

I would trade pick 61 and 161 to move up in the second round (you might get as high as pick 45 by doing this) 

you could use the last three picks 174, 213, and 236 to maneuver in the later rounds. and if he didn't trade any of those picks the picks would be camp bodies and we would draft 5 guys instead of 7. It would also give us 2 picks in the top 45 instead of 4 picks in the top 161 and only one pick in the top 45. 

 

I am just playing around here but it would be nice. Plus if you were one of those guys drafted by this team rounds 5-7 you probably know in your heart you have little chance of playing on the opening day roster

 

 

 

It’s your exercise, you should pinpoint players that you love and not bother yourself with my preferences.

[Pete]

I am always a proponent of trading back, and making multiple deals.  The goal- as many top 100 picks as possible.

• This year RB early please.  Preferably after tradeback.   RB, TE, CB are our biggest needs.  We have roster spots for all 3 positions.  KR, Edge, DL, OT we might have roster spots for too.  That's the case for trading back IMO.  If roster cuts are tough in August, trade depth for 2022 picks

[SoCal Deek]

I doubt we’ll see movement for any of the reasons opined here, either up or down. If we move it’ll be a spot or two just because we know who’s picking before or after us and Beane’ll know their needs vs ours. No need to hurry to the podium if you know your guy will still be there if you let a team cut in front of you and vice versa. This will be a very un-sexy Bills draft. Thank goodness; we earned it!

[NewEra]

If there’s a guy you love @ 30, draft him.  If there are several you love @ 30, trade back get another 2nd or 3rd.  Accumulate as many 2nd and 3rds as you can by trading back and trading up.  I’d be fine if we traded away our 5th-7th rd picks in this years and next years draft to make this happen.

 

Imo, there’s solid talent in rd 2-3 that isn’t far off from the talent @30.  Quantity over quality could be the way to go in the first 3-4 rds

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, wagne591 said:

We have a pretty good roster as it sits right now and there is now way 7 draft prospects make the roster or even come close. This is what I would do if I were Beane. Here are the Bills picks as it stands now:

Round Pick

1           30    Bills original selection

2           61    Bills original selection

3           93    Bills original selection

5           161 Acquired from Raiders for Zay Jones

5           174 Bills original selection

6           213 Bills original selection

7        *236 Acquired from Panthers for Marshall Newhouse

 

I would pin point 2 or three guys that you love and you think would help this team out day 1 (either by creating competition or starting) and use all the draft pick to maneuver the board to make it work. 

 

I would trade pick 30 and 93 to move up in the first round ( you wont get a top 10 but you can probably get as high as 18 to the mid 20's

I would trade pick 61 and 161 to move up in the second round (you might get as high as pick 45 by doing this) 

you could use the last three picks 174, 213, and 236 to maneuver in the later rounds. and if he didn't trade any of those picks the picks would be camp bodies and we would draft 5 guys instead of 7. It would also give us 2 picks in the top 45 instead of 4 picks in the top 161 and only one pick in the top 45. 

 

I am just playing around here but it would be nice. Plus if you were one of those guys drafted by this team rounds 5-7 you probably know in your heart you have little chance of playing on the opening day roster

 

 

 

 

 

The more guys you draft the better your chances of finding an extra good one somewhere. Even if you don't end up keeping them all, you might find that you're cutting your 5th rounder but keeping the second 6th rounder - the one you thought about trading away - because he has surprised you.

 

Again, there have been scholarly studies done on what trading up and trading down does to your odds of success. Massey and Thaler is the most famous, the Harvard Sports Collective is also well-known, but at this point there have been dozens and they all find the same thing. Worth noting that these guys aren't dummies. Thaler has won a Nobel prize. Ever study finds that when you give up valuable assets to move up (and you absolutely will have to give up a valuable asset to trade up to #18 or #20 as you're saying here) your odds of success drop. A lot.

 

 

 

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/malmendier/e218_sp06/Thaler.pdf

 

 

 

Trading away lower round guys isn't such a big deal, but giving up higher-round valuable picks is simply a bad idea. The idea is that GMs - being human - aren't as smart as they think they are and would do better to keep more picks, especially earlier ones, to give them more chances. The exception is trading up for a QB when you haven't got one. Those guys are so important, and generally unavailable except when picked early, that trading up for one makes sense. Otherwise, it doesn't.

 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

People keep saying we need a CB2 but I’m not sure why.  Wallace has been OK and Jackson is going to get a shot after showing promise his rookie year.  Bottom line with our safeties and Tre on the other side, whoever is at that CB spot will be picked on.

 

I would like to see a big LB/ S type hybrid to go up against multiple TE offenses.  

CB2 because Wallace is on a one year deal and Jackson is a developmental player.  I’m not saying the former couldn’t re-sign or the latter couldn’t develop, but many of us would prefer to see CB2 settled for the long term.  Depth at CB is always a very good thing anyway.  Also I agree on the need for a matchup player for TEs. 

[Solomon Grundy]

7 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

We don't have enough open roster spots to fill if we stand pat and draft where we stand.  Trading back and accumulating more picks just so we can cut these guys later does not make much sense to me.

Ever hear about competition? Maybe some of the guys they draft outperforms players on roster currently. Would potentially get a better talent at a cheaper price. McDermott preaches competing 

[glazeduck]

I still go back to how the circumstances of the past year are going to affect everything. The draft is all about what you know, what you think you know and what you can't or don't know, and this year -- more than ever -- the list of things you can't know is crazy long. That's why, under the right circumstances, I still advocate for trading up for Kyle Pitts (those circumstances being: can't afford getting into the top 10 unless someone throws you a sweetheart deal and getting back a late pick or two).

 

We can't know how all of these guys stack up against each other athletically (no combine), but we DO know that he's of the top percentile or two, athletically, compared to TEs historically. We can't know exactly how competition stacks up across the board (different schedules & interconference games cancelled), but we DO know that the SEC regularly pumps out the best athletes and the best coached players on that side of the ball and we know how well Pitts played against them. We don't know how the draft will shake out, but we DO know what our needs are -- TE is arguably a top 2 or 3 need -- and we also know what the veteran free agency pool looks like: fairly deep at DE, CB, G; reasonably so at DT and OT; BLEAK at TE. We also know what the makeup of our own roster looks like, and it's not looking like there's THAT many more spots to fill, so might as well use picks to get a Ferrari in the garage as opposed to a couple more Camrys. Lastly, we can also make a very reasonable assumption that there will be a higher percentage of draft misses this year due to lack of scouting, personal interviews, etc. 

Because of all these variables, and most specifically the last one, late picks should -- at least from a market basis -- be closer in value to higher picks this season, than ever before (because at some point, the draft is always educated guesses anyway, this year the education is lower and the guesses will start earlier.)  

 

So for me, again, if its on the table (and obviously we won't know until it is/isn't); package 1, 2 and a future 2 for Pitts and, say 2 6s. You're getting one of the few known commodities at one of your biggest positions of need and the shallowest position available, who is clearly a difference maker, will help your franchise QB and continue to open up your offense, address shortcomings in the red zone and short down & distance situations and generally be another weapon. Keeping the 3 allows you to make one more informed pick and likely fill a need at CB or DT, and you can use the day 3 picks on guys with upside. That's how I'd do it.

 

A bird in the hand, at one of your weakest positions (both on roster and in availability) is worth several semi-educated guesses in the bush... 

Edited March 25, 2021 by glazeduck

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Ever hear about competition? Maybe some of the guys they draft outperforms players on roster currently. Would potentially get a better talent at a cheaper price. McDermott preaches competing 

Ever hear about using draft capital to load up on late round developmental prospects who are unlikely to crack the roster year 1 and wind up getting cut?  Its a stupid allocation of resources. 

[glazeduck]

12 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Ever hear about using draft capital to load up on late round developmental prospects who are unlikely to crack the roster year 1 and wind up getting cut?  Its a stupid allocation of resources. 

I think the competition argument, to a certain degree, holds water -- especially when we've seen Beane actually use guys who would normally be cut to get back some value in trades.

 

But to me, especially this year, I think you go get the stud, the guy you need, the guy that's very obviously going to be a good player at a need spot. Even if he doesn't become an all-time great, by trading up for Pitts, you're all but guaranteeing that pick won't be a bust -- which I think is more than you can say than just about every other player in this draft...

[Dr. Who]

39 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I still go back to how the circumstances of the past year are going to affect everything. The draft is all about what you know, what you think you know and what you can't or don't know, and this year -- more than ever -- the list of things you can't know is crazy long. That's why, under the right circumstances, I still advocate for trading up for Kyle Pitts (those circumstances being: can't afford getting into the top 10 unless someone throws you a sweetheart deal and getting back a late pick or two).

 

We can't know how all of these guys stack up against each other athletically (no combine), but we DO know that he's of the top percentile or two, athletically, compared to TEs historically. We can't know exactly how competition stacks up across the board (different schedules & interconference games cancelled), but we DO know that the SEC regularly pumps out the best athletes and the best coached players on that side of the ball and we know how well Pitts played against them. We don't know how the draft will shake out, but we DO know what our needs are -- TE is arguably a top 2 or 3 need -- and we also know what the veteran free agency pool looks like: fairly deep at DE, CB, G; reasonably so at DT and OT; BLEAK at TE. We also know what the makeup of our own roster looks like, and it's not looking like there's THAT many more spots to fill, so might as well use picks to get a Ferrari in the garage as opposed to a couple more Camrys. Lastly, we can also make a very reasonable assumption that there will be a higher percentage of draft misses this year due to lack of scouting, personal interviews, etc. 

Because of all these variables, and most specifically the last one, late picks should -- at least from a market basis -- be closer in value to higher picks this season, than ever before (because at some point, the draft is always educated guesses anyway, this year the education is lower and the guesses will start earlier.)  

 

So for me, again, if its on the table (and obviously we won't know until it is/isn't); package 1, 2 and a future 2 for Pitts and, say 2 6s. You're getting one of the few known commodities at one of your biggest positions of need and the shallowest position available, who is clearly a difference maker, will help your franchise QB and continue to open up your offense, address shortcomings in the red zone and short down & distance situations and generally be another weapon. Keeping the 3 allows you to make one more informed pick and likely fill a need at CB or DT, and you can use the day 3 picks on guys with upside. That's how I'd do it.

 

A bird in the hand, at one of your weakest positions (both on roster and in availability) is worth several semi-educated guesses in the bush... 

I like your idea, but you may need to get to pick 5 - 7 for Pitts. I don't know how those forumulas for draft picks work, but I rather doubt #30, a late second rounder, next years second which equates to a third this year and a couple of sixth rounders gets you close. I suspect it does not.

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I like your idea, but you may need to get to pick 5 - 7 for Pitts. I don't know how those forumulas for draft picks work, but I rather doubt #30, a late second rounder, next years second which equates to a third this year and a couple of sixth rounders gets you close. I suspect it does not.

Yeah that’s the biggest issue. And contrary to popular belief, there’s really no set formula, it all depends on the trading partner, your relationship with them, their needs and strategy, who’s on/off the board, what kind of leverage you/they have, etc. Which is a long way of saying that it probably won’t happen. 
 

All that said, Pitts could easily go top 5 or slip into the teens, that’s what you’d be hoping for...

[mjt328]

Looking at the roster as it stands, I see about 45-48 players that are pretty much roster locks.

Barring trades or surprise cuts, that means we only have 5-8 open roster spots.  With a total of 7 picks and the ensuing UDFA signings, I agree that using some of that capitol to move up may be wise.

 

My feeling is that Buffalo's biggest needs are CB, DE and TE, with OG, RB and DT not far behind.  

I've done numerous mock drafts, and sometimes one of the need positions falls to us at #30.  But there are other occasions where BPA is another wide receiver or middle linebacker, which would not be ideal. 

 

It will be an interesting draft, and we'll have to wait and see how the board falls. 

 

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

I think the competition argument, to a certain degree, holds water -- especially when we've seen Beane actually use guys who would normally be cut to get back some value in trades.

 

But to me, especially this year, I think you go get the stud, the guy you need, the guy that's very obviously going to be a good player at a need spot. Even if he doesn't become an all-time great, by trading up for Pitts, you're all but guaranteeing that pick won't be a bust -- which I think is more than you can say than just about every other player in this draft...

Competition is wonderful. Iron sharpens iron and all that.  Beautiful.

 

Now go through the roster and actually put names on it.  Whose roster spot is in jeopardy to a day 2 or day 3 rookie after we trade back to stockpile all these picks?  

 

The players who would have been cut who Beane traded for picks have all been vets.  

[glazeduck]

Just now, Jauronimo said:

Competition is wonderful. Iron sharpens iron and all that.  Beautiful.

 

Now go through the roster and actually put names on it.  Whose roster spot is in jeopardy to a day 2 or day 3 rookie after we trade back to stockpile all these picks?  

 

The players who would have been cut who Beane traded for picks have all been vets.  

Maybe you didn't fully read my post but I was agreeing with you.

 

But to play devil's advocate... I don't think you can call any of the following guys' spots ironclad locks: Ike, Fromm, Addison, Bates, Dodson, Ford (probably would need to be a trade, but still...), Hollister, Jackson, Daryl Johnson, McKenzie, Neal, Obada, Andre Smith... 

 

But again, I agree with you.

[Solomon Grundy]

8 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Maybe you didn't fully read my post but I was agreeing with you.

 

But to play devil's advocate... I don't think you can call any of the following guys' spots ironclad locks: Ike, Fromm, Addison, Bates, Dodson, Ford (probably would need to be a trade, but still...), Hollister, Jackson, Daryl Johnson, McKenzie, Neal, Obada, Andre Smith... 

 

But again, I agree with you.

Cam Lewis, Jordan Devey, Duke Williams, Mike Love, Bryan Cox, Tyrel Dodson, Josh Thomas, Brandin Bryant, Dean Marlowe are more names who aren’t locks

[Monty98]

12 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Well, most draftnicks are saying no DEs will be worth it at pick 30 and that we should trade up to try and get one. That makes sense to me (if it is true and it is possible. Who knows though? I could still see a better veteran  DE than anyone we could draft at 22 becoming available refusing to renegotiate or something.....

I feel like one of the edge guys will drop. Lots of very good OL and WR in the draft 4-5 QBs go in the first round, CB will over drafted. Someone out of Phillips, Rousseau, or Ouljari will drop to 30 probably. My guess is Rousseau based on his one year of production and the fact that he's super super raw. Talented but doesn't have one wow skill. This is coming from a Canes fan, I thought he'd get overdrafted based on production. He had a lot of effort sacks where he didn't give up on the play, will be something in 2-3 years but for a rebuild or early pick you want instant production. I'd love him in Buffalo as a learn from Jerry Hughes type pick

[glazeduck]

5 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Cam Lewis, Jordan Devey, Duke Williams, Mike Love, Bryan Cox, Tyrel Dodson, Josh Thomas, Brandin Bryant, Dean Marlowe are more names who aren’t locks

I didn't bother listing PS guys, but yes.

[GreggTX]

OL, DL, CB, TE. Git 'er done. I want a stud run blocker at LG. Is it too much to ask that we have a probowler or 2 on the OL? A great edge rusher would have a lot of impact and we would all like that CB2 situation to stop biting us from behind. We have no trouble finding WR's, after all. Get another very good outside CB already. Give us a probowler on the OL and the DL. Games can still be won and lost in trenches. I doubt we get all that, but if we nail 3 of 'em we're in great shape. Even 2 would be great. I hope some of the answers are already in place like Ford, D Jackson and Epinesa. This coming season one of those guys might be our consensus Most Improved Player and just take wing like Josh Allen did last year.

Edited March 25, 2021 by GreggTX