Not Sure We Will Repeat as AFCE Champs

[ngbills]

7 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

There's a very good chance that our defense last year was a fluke--that we were hit harder by the inability to play together. Star will likely help, but we also have a bunch of players on the ascent, and will likely not have two star linebackers playing with one arm most of the season. In any case, I suspect we'll be closer to the 3rd of 2017 and 2018 than the 16th of 2019, and have many reasons to feel that way.

And along these same lines our offense could be a fluke.

 

Most (vegas odds included) will pick the Bills to win the division. I am speaking for the OP, but I think his point is other teams got much better on paper while the Bills basically stood pat. Did they do enough to close the gap? Most likely not. But they definitely made it more interesting and closed the gap. If pre free agency it was say 90% chance Bills repeat it is now maybe 80%. 

Edited March 24, 2021 by ngbills

[thurst44]

45 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Or the following:

• Sanders delivers as expected.
• The Bills address the run game, and add a real threat at RB.
• They add a legit pass rusher.
• Epenesa, or Oliver (or both) have a breakout season.
• Edmunds, or Milano (or both) stay healthy.

If one of those five things occur, the Bills remain at the top of the AFCE.

If two of those things happen, the Bills are better than last season.

If three of those things happen, the Bills are a lot better than last season.

If four of those things happen, the Bills dominate the AFC.

If all five of those things happen? ...dang!!!

This is my way of thinking too. When you lose in the AFC Championship and went into that game on an eight game winning streak where you beat your opponents by double-digits in all but one game, you WANT to stand still. More often than not, you lose key players. This year, they kept the players they wanted to keep. There's a reason a lot of national outlets are giving us praise for the offseason despite for nothing "splashy" happening. 

[JMF2006]

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

 

The Bills best ST player was neither of those two guys.....it was our kicker Sea Bass

 

As a Bills rookie he set the single season scoring record for a kicker.

 

What records did Bjork break?  or Roberts?  

 

Haack is a pretty good punter and I think he has a few TD passes under his belt (shades of #8 an all time Bills great)

 

Relax Hondo and Billieve in the process.

 

This is a 13 win team and a 2 round play off winner and our QB is just starting to realize his potential.

 

The other three teams in this division have a long way to go to catch this juggernaut

[wagne591]

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

I have to disagree with your statement that our two best players were Roberts and Bojorquez. Roberts was good but I would much rather see Lil Dirty back there especially for punts. To me he is more shifty and always has a chance to break one (i.e. the Miami game last year). Yes Roberts was good and he always came out with a full steam of head....but he wasn't shifty and if there wasn't a hole there he wasn't going anywhere. As for Bojo, I thought he was average. Yes he had some great punts but he also had some pretty bad ones (i.e. the 12 yarder vs the Cards). You can look here and see that he was just average  https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/3/12/22324339/2020-analysis-buffalo-bills-punter-corey-bojorquez i just think we didn't see much of him last year so when we did see him we were all shocked. 

 

I think Tyler Bass was one of our studs on ST and glad he is with us. I will only talk playoffs with him. The Colts game he made a great kick at the end of the game to seal the deal for us. He didn't do so hot vs Bal but neither did Tucker (probably the best kicker of all time) because the winds were crazy. And in the Championship game he was he was perfect with FG's 4-4 with 2 from 50+ yards (although he did miss an Extra point). 

 

I also think we have some great cover guys like Jones and Tyler M. 

 

I also think most people on this board are underestimating C. Ford as a Guard (which is where he will be this year) we have a solid line with Dion, Ford on the left side Morse int he middle and Mongo and Williams on the right. Or you could flop the Guards around who cares. I really think the weak link on our line is Morse. I remember watch the Pats game when Morse went down with a concussion and with Bates and Mongo and Winters in the middle. We will see. 

 

We have a pretty damn good team with the only franchise QB in the Division which we need to pay next year along with Edmonds if we want him. So Beane is looking for long term success. The addition of Sanders is good and resigning our own is great. I still think we get a free agent Edge rusher or Beane has his eyes on a couple of players in the draft and will trade up to get them. If we kept all our draft picks only 2 or 3 will make the team anyway. 

 

 

[Coffeesforclosers]

Until the rest of the division has a comeback for "Who's your quarterback though?", It's our division to lose.

 

 

[thurst44]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

And along these same lines our offense could be a fluke.

 

Most (vegas odds included) will pick the Bills to win the division. I am speaking for the OP, but I think his point is other teams got much better on paper while the Bills basically stood pat. Did they do enough to close the gap? Most likely not. But they definitely made it more interesting and closed the gap. If pre free agency it was say 90% chance Bills repeat it is now maybe 80%. 

True, but there's less reason to think that than there is to think the defense will return to form.

(1) Allen has improved every year since JuCo. He could regress, but there's more aspects about him that suggest he will stay the same or improve: he's a natural born leader, he's smart, he's addicted to studying tape, he doesn't appear to have any distractions, players around him seem to love him.

(2) Bringing back almost the whole offensive line. Other than Dawkins and Ford, there's no reason to believe any players are on the upswing, but the fact that they will have continuity should help.

(3) Davis and Knox could both make huge steps. Sure, Gabriel Davis could have a sophomore slump, but he had a knack for the endzone and a seemingly preternatural sense of the sidelines. Dawson Knox has been maddening sure, but he's also made some spectacular catches for all the inexcusable drops. Also, he's a brutal runner after the catch. 

(4) Singletary had a 5.1 ypc year his rookie season and would have had 1000 yards had he stayed healthy. He could rebound or last year could be more indicative of who he is. Moss is raw and had moments and is probably more likely to improve than go backwards. There's a good chance they could add a dynamic rookie like Etienne or Najee Harris. Sure, Christian Wade is probably never going to play an NFL game, but we have seen his top-level speed.

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

 

 

While I agree with your main idea, that nobody should be "sure" we'll repeat as division champs, saying that no level of our D was consistently good is overplaying your hand.

 

The defensive backfield was excellent as usual.

 

Also, we didn't step back. We brought back a group that is consistently improving the last couple of years. And we improved a bit at WR and a lot at backup QB, which could potentially be a major deal. Maybe even a bit at TE, though the proof will be in the pudding there. Cody Ford being healthy would likely be a real improvement.

 

You're right that it'll be harder this year. No sure thing at all, but we'll be the favorites for good reason.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Rocket94]

6 hours ago, 947 said:

Buffalo will be favored to win the division. There will surely be a few dumba$$ talking heads who pick the Dolphins or Pats to generate hits, but the vast majority will still pick the Bills.

Probably the friggin Dolphins will be picked by some!

[JMF2006]

7 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Probably the friggin Dolphins will be picked by some!

 

Lets see those people put some significant money on that and then I will Billieve they aren't just click baiting

[Rocket94]

5 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

Lets see those people put some significant money on that and then I will Billieve they aren't just click baiting

There is always a few pundits...especially now after the loss to the Chiefs and other teams making moves.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm listening....

 

 

So we "got worse" because we traded a big-legged punter who could kick us out of trouble, but was usually unable to pin the other team deep (lots of touchbacks) for a reliable punter who excelled at pinning the other team inside their own 20, and because we moved on from a great return guy who averaged 27 yds on kickoff returns (vs if it's in the endzone, it comes out to the 25) and who varied between getting us great field position on some returns vs. getting us pinned inside our own 5 yd line on others (see Colts game)?

 

 

You absolutely should not be sure we'll repeat as AFCE champs.   Every year is a new year.  Nothing is given.  Everything is earned.

 

Here's the thing though...when you're 13-3, the other teams have to step up to come even with you.

 

 

 

 

IMO, yeah, we got worse losing Bojorquez. 

 

They didn't sign him because they couldn't agree on a contract, not because they didn't want him.

 

“We’re always trying to improve our roster,” McDermott said. “Corey was in a situation where he had a good year and we got to a situation where both sides were talking and we just felt we had an opportunity that’s best for our team. At the end of the day, we wish Corey the best.”“The one thing is, we’ve got a young kicker, we plan to have Reid (Ferguson) here as a long snapper – we were looking for someone who definitely wanted to be here for the long term,” Beane said. “We just weren’t on the same page (with Bojorquez), so we decided to look elsewhere and we’re very excited. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/five-takeaways-from-brandon-beanes-and-sean-mcdermotts-free-agency-news-conference/article_029d2958-883c-11eb-803d-1bfcaf5594c0.html

 

 

Roberts too. That appears to also have been a money move. Roberts was absolutely one of the best KRs in the league. But you can't afford everything. Hopefully McKenzie can replace him without too much of a dropoff. But when they had the money last year they kept both guys and had Roberts return the kicks, though that McKenzie punt runback was really pretty.

 

I like Haack as a replacement, but yeah I think it's fair to say there's a dropoff. Perhaps not a very large one, hopefully.

 

They saved money on these moves, which may/should help elsewhere. But purely in terms of STs, yeah, I think it's fair to say they got a bit worse.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Thurman#1

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

we have the best qb, and an established system going... until someone knocks us off, we are the established favorite by a wide margin 

[Brennan Huff]

It’s not going to be a walk in the park. But also, it’s not too late to delete this...

[Boatdrinks]

Not sure the Bills will repeat as AFCE champs ? Me either, but who is ? A wise man once said , “ that’s why they play the games”. It’s also the reason we all watch them. 

[BruceVilanch]

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Where we're blessed is that one of our elite players lines up behind center.   

Diggs is Elite, Dion Dawkins is a top 7 LT, Poyer and Hyde is arguably a top 3 S tandem. and then we have Josh, and an Elite QB in a division with mediocre to bad QB's is generally enough to get it done. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, junior12thman92 said:

• Haack is better at pinning the ball than Bojo is. Bojo has a stronger leg. 
• Roberts is a big loss in the return game - hopefully McKenzie can fill in nicely.
• Hollister > Smith, Kroft.
• Sanders is as good, if not better than Brown

 

Given all that (and the fact that we're going to add in the draft), I don't think we took a step back. When it comes to NE, MIA, and NYJ, everyone knew they would improve considering they were all in the top 5 in cap space. 

 

Maybe Haack is a also a better holder than Bojo.  There were about 1/2 dozen times on field goal attempts laces were in the wrong direction, some were still made, some were missed.   I actually question if that factored into the Bills letting Bojo go?  Missing field goals due to bad holds likely could cost losing a game more than a couple yards less net on punts.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I'm 100% confident we will win it again especially if Newton is starting again. Sure the Dolphins defense is scary good, but I think they'll only go as far as their weakest link. Who knows if the Bills haven't improved just as much if not more? Star is back, Oliver is going into his critical 3rd year, and Espenesa should take that next step. The one thing we have is continuation which is much better than a bunch of flashy free agents. Also Sanders could push this offense out of the stratosphere.

[Southern_Bills]

Only team with an outside shot is Miami. We kept a really good team in tact, that means alot. 

 

No guarantees of course but I like the Bills chances.

[BillsFan2313]

Ok

[transplantbillsfan]

Stood still at best and probably stepped back????

 

Allen's a year older with a year's more experience.

 

Allen and Diggs will have a full off-season to further build their chemistry.

 

We didn't lose ANY starters really other than John Brown who many would say we upgraded from with Sanders.

 

Mongo and Ford manning G in an OL now essentially together for 3 years... and continuity is a critical component to good OL play.

 

Everyone is back on D. 

 

PLUS we get Star back who we clearly missed last year.

 

Continuity of system and coaches.

 

Plus Beane has proven to be a good drafter so we'll get 1 or 2 impact players in the draft.

 

You're nuts if you think we stepped back.

Edited March 24, 2021 by transplantbillsfan