Drafting- a non American perspective

[Seoulofstone]

I've been watching the NFL since I was 7. The days of Walter Payton and William Perry. I found the game mesmerizing back then all the razzmatazz and explosive plays.

 

 Maybe it's normal at a young age that you simply don't care about roster construction you just follow favorite players. Nowadays living in the US I take much more interest in the draft.

 

 I love the idea of finishing order deciding pick position. I want a competitive league and this is a system that should give bad teams a chance at parity.

 

There are things that I find odd about the pre draft process I honestly think the combine is weird and even a little creepy. Players' traits aren't measured in this way in the sports I watched growing up, even though clearly elite traits are desirable.

 

My highlight is the Senior Bowl. I find the stories surrounding smaller school guys much more compelling. I like the idea that they are dropped into a group of strangers and asked to play. Pleased that they were able to hold it this year.

 

  As draft approaches I find that a sort of concensus about where guys 'should' be picked emerges across various mock draft sites. What I find interesting is how so many fans can't see beyond that pundits pecking order despite the fact that many players wont live up to that draft position because of scheme or personal struggles or simply because a flashy highlight reel at college can be meaningless in a different context. We all remember the hype around numerous failed top 10 picks.

 

  I find the idea of watching 'film' or 'tape' amusing because it sounds so old fashioned. I like football, but I can't imagine watching a whole game and focusing on one player. It really seems like a laborious and by no means fool proof way of figuring out how successful they will be at the next level. Kudos to those with the patience to do so.

 

 There's so much that I don't understand, so my method is to find some guys who are balanced in their assessments but aren't afraid to be bold in defending outliers. For me Joe Marino, Daniel Jeremiah and Kiper.

 

 Finally, here is my bold (and likely incorrect) prediction for this year. After the blue chip guys, I reckon you can get similar value at the end of the first than around picks 10-15, just like in 2016 + 2017.

 

Kenny Clark 27 -Sheldon Rankins 12

William Jackson 24>Eli Apple 10

Tre White 27- Marathon Lattimore 11

TJWatt 30> Derek Barnett 14

 

This will be an unpopular opinion especially the last:

  Surtain-Stokes

  Paye-Phillips

  Darrisaw-Cosmi

  Pitts-Friermuth

  

 

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2021 by Seoulofstone

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

I've been watching the NFL since I was 7. The days of Walter Payton and William Perry. I found the game mesmerizing back then all the razzmatazz and explosive plays.

 

 Maybe it's normal at a young age that you simply don't care about roster construction you just follow favorite players. Nowadays living in the US I take much more interest in the draft.

 

 I love the idea of finishing order deciding pick position. I want a competitive league and this is a system that should give bad teams a chance at parity.

 

There are things that I find odd about the pre draft process I honestly think the combine is weird and even a little creepy. Players' traits aren't measured in this way in the sports I watched growing up, even though clearly elite traits are desirable.

 

My highlight is the Senior Bowl. I find the stories surrounding smaller school guys much more compelling. I like the idea that they are dropped into a group of strangers and asked to play. Pleased that they were able to hold it this year.

 

  As draft approaches I find that a sort of concensus about where guys 'should' be picked emerges across various mock draft sites. What I find interesting is how so many fans can't see beyond that pundits pecking order despite the fact that many players wont live up to that draft position because of scheme or personal struggles or simply because a flashy highlight reel at college can be meaningless in a different context. We all remember the hype around numerous failed top 10 picks.

 

  I find the idea of watching 'film' or 'tape' amusing because it sounds so old fashioned. I like football, but I can't imagine watching a whole game and focusing on one player. It really seems like a laborious and by no means fool proof way of figuring out how successful they will be at the next level. Kudos to those with the patience to do so.

 

 There's so much that I don't understand, so my method is to find some guys who are balanced in their assessments but aren't afraid to be bold in defending outliers. For me Joe Marino, Daniel Jeremiah and Kiper.

 

 Finally, here is my bold (and likely incorrect) prediction for this year. After the blue chip guys, I reckon you can get similar value at the end of the first than around picks 10-15, just like in 2016 + 2017.

 

Kenny Clark 27 -Sheldon Rankins 12

William Jackson 24>Eli Apple 10

Tre White 27- Marathon Lattimore 11

TJWatt 30> Derek Barnett 14

 

This will be an unpopular opinion especially the last:

  Surtain-Stokes

  Paye-Phillips

  Darrisaw-Cosmi

  Pitts-Friermuth

  

 

 

 

 

I could see Phillips > Paye.

 

I definitely don’t see stokes being better than Surtain, although Farley or Horn could be the best.  
 

pitts > lady gronk by a wide margin imo, but landing spot is incredibly important for pass catchers.  If pitts lands in Miami, Philly, Detroit, NYG, NYJ, Carolina, Washington, Chicago, Indy, NO or Baltimore......anything could happen. 

I haven’t looked at any Darrisaw tape because he won’t fall to 30, so no comment.   

[Seoulofstone]

32 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I could see Phillips > Paye.

 

I definitely don’t see stokes being better than Surtain, although Farley or Horn could be the best.  
 

pitts > lady gronk by a wide margin imo, but landing spot is incredibly important for pass catchers.  If pitts lands in Miami, Philly, Detroit, NYG, NYJ, Carolina, Washington, Chicago, Indy, NO or Baltimore......anything could happen. 

I haven’t looked at any Darrisaw tape because he won’t fall to 30, so no comment.   

I see Surtain as the highest floor guy. Obviously he's tall at 6"2 but slowish at 4.5 speed. Horn had bad games this year but at 4.39 is quick. Nice size at 6"1.  Stokes is 6"1 with 4.25 speed with good SEC tape. So how have people got Stokes stacked as the weakest 1st round CB?

 

  I guess it depends if you want a guy who can also play press man, but Stokes would excel in Buffalo's zone, also giving them coverage for speed guys. I guess this is the hill I die on this year. 😆.

 

 I will say that I expect Phillips to fall. Medically retired from football after his freshman year? Oof.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Seoulofstone

[4merper4mer]

We already drafted a non American with that cricket player who has been on the practice squad the last 10 years.  No thanks.

[The Wiz]

In regards to the pundits and predraft rankings. 

 

 

[NewEra]

15 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

I see Surtain as the highest floor guy. Obviously he's tall at 6"2 but slowish at 4.5 speed. Horn had bad games this year but at 4.39 is quick. Nice size at 6"1.  Stokes is 6"1 with 4.25 speed with good SEC tape. So how have people got Stokes stacked as the weakest 1st round CB?

 

  I guess it depends if you want a guy who can also play press man, but Stokes would excel in Buffalo's zone, also giving them coverage for speed guys. I guess this is the hill I die on this year. 😆.

 

 I will say that I expect Phillips to fall. Medically retired from football after his freshman year? Oof.

Good post.  I agree with all of this. I haven’t dove deep on Stokes yet.  While breaking down waddle and smith, I saw him get burned badly on a few plays....but they do that to most corners. 
 

Currently in Cancun, so I haven’t caught up to date with pro days. The internet here is beyond bad.  Did stokes run a 4.25??

[SoCal Deek]

All things being equal I’d gravitate to a kid with an NFL bloodline. I think those kids have personal pressure to perform and built in mentors to help them in the transition to professional life. (I’m not sure if that theory has panned out but there’s gotta be quite a large sample size for it to be studied.)

[Seoulofstone]

29 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All things being equal I’d gravitate to a kid with an NFL bloodline. I think those kids have personal pressure to perform and built in mentors to help them in the transition to professional life. (I’m not sure if that theory has panned out but there’s gotta be quite a large sample size for it to be studied.)

I expect that's true and helps Surtain. But athletically he is nothing like Lattimore and Humphrey. We will see I suppose.

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Good post.  I agree with all of this. I haven’t dove deep on Stokes yet.  While breaking down waddle and smith, I saw him get burned badly on a few plays....but they do that to most corners. 
 

Currently in Cancun, so I haven’t caught up to date with pro days. The internet here is beyond bad.  Did stokes run a 4.25??

 

 Cancun huh? Fabulous, enjoy your vacation! Yes Stokes ran in the 4.2s twice, at his pro day and the HOA regional combine. So he's definitely rapid, but in fairness a lot of guys are getting eye popping times at their pro-days.

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

I expect that's true and helps Surtain. But athletically he is nothing like Lattimore and Humphrey. We will see I suppose.

 

 Cancun huh? Fabulous, enjoy your vacation! Yes Stokes ran in the 4.2s twice, at his pro day and the HOA regional combine. So he's definitely rapid, but in fairness a lot of guys are getting eye popping times at their pro-days.

 

Yeah, my wife and I got our 2nd vaccine shots and decided it was time for the beach. 7 days of beach, waves, booze and sunburn!  

 

I figured times would be better outside of a combine setting.  I knew stokes was a track guy, but so was lee Evans and he ran a 4.4 iirc.  Stokes would probably be sub 4.4, impressive. Defiantly seems as if there ar some quality corners in rd 1-3.  Trade don and get more picks!