whorlnut Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 It’s kind of clear at this point that Beane wants to upgrade TE. I highly doubt Hollister is the upgrade that he envisions. He made a run at guys like Gronk, Jonnu Smith, and Zach Ertz, among others. Ertz might still happen, but if it doesn’t, I could see him maybe targeting Pat Freiermuth in the draft. Freiermuth’s nickname is “Baby Gronk” and while that might be too high of praise, it speaks of his skill set. He is very athletic and attacks the seam. Elite size for the position. I would like to see a trade down into the top of the second to take Freiermuth, and pick up another top 75 pick to use to go after an edge, corner, or lineman. With the way Beane has been aggressive this off-season to upgrade TE, I just can’t see him staying with what he has. Penn State’s pro day is this week. We will see... 5 1 1
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) I absolutely can see him staying with what he has. Having said that, I am usually a fan of trading down, and Freiermuth looks like a good prospect. I wouldn't mind, if they like him enough. Edited March 22, 2021 by Thurman#1 5
Richard Noggin Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 Sounds great if it works. The proposed plan--to trade down for a SPECIFIC player--is initially fraught with risk, and the additional uncertainty in trading back many hours from Day One to Day Two of the draft. Each selection in the space between picks is a vulnerability, and the added time for intel gathering and trade talks overnight could easily add to the volatility. (I'm not going to research right now if the top of the 2nd round (Day Two) features above average trade frequency, but I'd be happy to see the results.) I think trading back, in theory, is best conducted with a value-based BPA approach in mind. There's either a logjam of equivalent talent available at a team's pick, so they trade back as far back as that logjam would reach (thereby ensuring they don't miss on a valued prospect while simultaneously adding value to their draft) OR there's a dearth of talent deserving of the pick, so they trade back to acquire assets rather than reaching. I'm sure targeted, player-specific trade-backs happen. I just don't think they're the best strategy longterm for maximizing draft value. 2 1 2
Brennan Huff Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) If we don’t go pass rush specialist with our first pick then I am so done with this team Edited March 22, 2021 by Brennan Huff 1 4 1
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) As long as Baby Gronk doesn't become Gronk 2.0 and we trade down to the 40's and some team takes him one pick before us and we land the next Torell Troupe. If we go offense in the first, I'm hoping Friermouth or Etienne. Personally I'd rather have Etienne and then take a shot at Trembly in the 2nd or 3rd as well as an EDGE. That should be RD's 1-3 RB/TE/EDGE in whatever order is BPA on our board. Edited March 22, 2021 by BillsRdue 1 1 1
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said: Sounds great if it works. The proposed plan--to trade down for a SPECIFIC player--is initially fraught with risk, and the additional uncertainty in trading back many hours from Day One to Day Two of the draft. Each selection in the space between picks is a vulnerability, and the added time for intel gathering and trade talks overnight could easily add to the volatility. (I'm not going to research right now if the top of the 2nd round (Day Two) features above average trade frequency, but I'd be happy to see the results.) I think trading back, in theory, is best conducted with a value-based BPA approach in mind. There's either a logjam of equivalent talent available at a team's pick, so they trade back as far back as that logjam would reach (thereby ensuring they don't miss on a valued prospect while simultaneously adding value to their draft) OR there's a dearth of talent deserving of the pick, so they trade back to acquire assets rather than reaching. I'm sure targeted, player-specific trade-backs happen. I just don't think they're the best strategy longterm for maximizing draft value. Agreed. From what I've seen - and I'm not a serious draft guy - there's not likely to be a lot of value at the positions we need at #30, with what seems like a very reasonable group of OLs and maybe a CB or two. Beane's method seems to be BPA at a position of need. But you're right that he doesn't narrow down position of need to one. He's clearly looking at a minimum of three or four possibilities based on how the talent is likely to lie when our pick falls. If he would rather have a pass rusher, a TE or another WR early, it looks to me like he might possible trade back. The News today predicted Kwity Pay at #30. I think if he's there, they don't trade back, but in most mocks he's long gone. Edited March 22, 2021 by Thurman#1
Aussie Joe Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, whorlnut said: I would like to see a trade down into the top of the second to take Freiermuth, and pick up another top 75 pick to use to go after an edge, corner, or lineman. Please tell me how this trade works on the chart... extra credit if you can identify trading team and who they are moving up for.. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp 1
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BillsRdue said: As long as Baby Gronk doesn't become Gronk 2.0 and we trade down to the 40's and some team takes him one pick before us and we land the next Torell Troupe. If we go offense in the first, I'm hoping Friermouth or Etienne. Personally I'd rather have Etienne and then take a shot at Trembly in the 2nd or 3rd as well as an EDGE. That should be RD's 1-3 RB/TE/EDGE in whatever order is BPA on our board. It's always worth remembering that Torell Troup was developing into a formidable player. He looked like he was going to be a real success. Then he played large parts of a season with a fractured back, pushing through the pain with pills. That willingness to sacrifice himself for the team cost him his career and his health. Here's the address of the Tyler Dunne story, and some excerpts: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/from-the-archives-torell-troup-the-one-the-bills-drafted-a-pick-before-gronk/article_556036f6-1ec6-5312-9986-27b3545822ef.html Excerpts: "Troup, to the outside world, is a certified bust. Yet another name thou shalt not speak of in the annals of Bills futility. But what happened? If those fans on Twitter only knew. “'I could understand [the twitter hate he got for years] if I was a bust,' Troup said. 'I know Buffalo has drafted a lot of guys who haven’t lived up to their expectations. But for me to be on my way, and living up to what the coaches wanted me to be and them telling me that – and then to get hurt and sidelined – it hurts. It hurts my pride more than anything that I wasn’t able to do more. I loved being up there, I loved that team and I loved the fans.' “'I would’ve done anything to play for the fans and that’s probably one of the reasons I am where I am now.' "When Gronkowski was scoring more touchdowns than any tight end ever in 2011, Troup was, as he said, 'all doped up' on Toradol to survive Sundays. During the week, he chugged pain pills like Tic Tacs. Troup played that season with a fractured back – his disc slipping, jamming into nerves – enduring the most unthinkable pain he doesn’t wish upon his worst enemies. "Teammates told him to quit. Coaches, he claims, told him to play. So he played to the literal point of tears and the subsequent L4/L5 spinal fusion ended his career. He’s more casualty of a ruthless business than bust. More commodity chewed up and spit out by the NFL than outright failure. Each creak of a joint in the a.m. is his aching reminder of his season from hell. “'They saw the pain that I was in, man,' Troup said. 'Being who I am, all I wanted to do was do what I was told. I never thought about talking back or saying I don’t want to play. No matter how much pain I was in, if they wanted me to play, I played. It went to where I couldn’t play no more.' "Over the phone, there’s a cough. A deep breath. 'Sorry,' Troup said, 'I’m getting a little choked up.' ... and another excerpt ... "His rookie year was OK. A start. This second season would be dynamite. "Through the 2011 lockout, Troup trained with a vengeance. He reported to training camp at a chiseled 319 pounds, eager to break out. Practices began at St. John Fisher and the kid who had 23 tackles and no sacks the year prior was dominant for stretches. “'Honestly, I was killing the offensive line,' Troup said. 'Eric Wood, I’m good friends with him, but they couldn’t handle me.' "One day in the lunchroom, head coach Chan Gailey and General Manager Buddy Nix couldn’t contain their excitement. The two asked Troup to sit down with them and told this bull in a china shop they had no clue what he did over the offseason, but, wow, were they ecstatic to see this all transfer to game day. "Their words added more fuel to Troup’s fire. His tear continued. Teammates today still remember Troup’s raw strength. “'Low center of gravity,' guard Kraig Urbik said. 'Super strong. Legs were very thick. Strong dude – he was tough to move for sure.' "'He was a strong dude,' Wood said. “'Big, powerful guy,' added veteran Kyle Williams. 'He’s probably not your pass rusher, but a guy who could stack things up at the line and make plays at the line of scrimmage and do some good things there.' "Reached by phone, Nix instantly remembers this camp well. “'Those big guys are hard to find! Especially him,' Nix said. 'He had some movement ability and was really a strong anchor guy.' "As Nix recalls, the Bills were shifting to a 3-4 scheme when they took Troup and needed a nose to take on double teams. "He doesn’t remember teams being scared off by Gronkowski’s injury history, but the Arizona tight end was the one with the shoddy Carfax report. Back surgery sidelined him his entire final season at Arizona. Troup? He missed a few games due to a knee scope as a freshman but was healthy in totaling 52 tackles (12.5 for loss) as a junior and 35 tackles (five for loss) as a senior. "Then, without warning, his world started to crumble down. "In a one-on-one pass rushing drill against Wood, Troup used a head bob to freeze the center. He smacked Wood with his right arm and Troup’s hand snapped, breaking the bone underneath his right knuckle. Initially, Troup thought he jammed the finger. By the time he reached the trainers he said his hand looked like a baseball glove. "Troup missed one week of practice, wrapped the paw in a club and was prepared to punctuate his knockout summer in the preseason finale against Detroit. To this day, he cannot pinpoint the play, the moment, but during this game he fractured his lower back. “'I played all through the game doped up,' he said, 'so I couldn’t feel it.' "On Wednesday, it felt like he pulled both hamstrings. He received an epidural. Tests later revealed the fracture. A disc in his back was slipping and pushing against nerves, causing burning and numbness down his legs. "Troup sat out the first three weeks of the season and returned. “'It’s easy to look back now and say, "I should have sat my ass down,” ' Troup said. 'But I was young. I was stupid. And it cost me my career.' ” Troup, if he'd only sat down, taken the season off and got surgery, he might easily have been remembered as a terrific Buffalo Bill. There's much more to the story, I copied maybe a third of it. It's heart-breaking. Troup should not be thought of as a bust. Instead, he's a tragedy, a guy who gave up his health for this team. Edited March 22, 2021 by Thurman#1 4 2 9
Rubes Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 Thanks for sharing that, I didn’t know most of the story. Really sad story. 1
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Rubes said: Thanks for sharing that, I didn’t know most of the story. Really sad story. Yeah, it really was. Seems like he is a hell of a guy and headed towards being a terrific player. Whenever I see someone mention Troup as a bust, I share this story. More people should know. Edited March 22, 2021 by Thurman#1 3 1
BuffaloBillsGospel Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) I definitely would not give up on Dawson Knox yet, were always trying to replace guys that look promising, not really sure what the deal is with that. Dawson barely saw action in that Ole Miss offense coming out of college, the guy has shown glimpses of being a really dominant TE at times, I think it's going to take him a bit longer to develop since he didn't have the reps of alot of these other tight ends. I'm still interested to see what Knox brings to the table because I think his best football hasn't been played yet imo. Edited March 22, 2021 by BuffaloBillsGospel 1
nato7412 Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said: Please tell me how this trade works on the chart... extra credit if you can identify trading team and who they are moving up for.. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp NYG is possible, our first is 620 pts, they could give 42 and 76 for it which would be 690 so a slight overpay. We have 2 5ths so we could add one of those to sweeten the deal(those are about 23 pts)
Aussie Joe Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 1 minute ago, nato7412 said: NYG is possible, our first is 620 pts, they could give 42 and 76 for it which would be 690 so a slight overpay. We have 2 5ths so we could add one of those to sweeten the deal(those are about 23 pts) Thanks for responding.. it wasnt even your idea So its about a 10%- 11% overpay... 42 is pick 10 of the second round .. Not quote top of the 2nd ....and its pick 76 ( Not Top 75) but who is being that pedantic? I would do it though and give them a 5th in change... Get Gettleman on the phone now I say and get it done.. I wont hold my breath though that they want someone at 30 that bad... 1
BornAgainBillsFan Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said: I definitely would not give up on Dawson Knox yet, were always trying to replace guys that look promising, not really sure what the deal is with that. Dawson barely saw action in that Ole Miss offense coming out of college, the guy has shown glimpses of being a really dominant TE at times, I think it's going to take him a bit longer to develop since he didn't have the reps of alot of these other tight ends. I'm still interested to see what Knox brings to the table because I think his best football hasn't been played yet imo. I'd be right there with you, BBG, if he'd shown any improvement this past year. But he didn't. Still woefully inconsistent hands and below average blocking. Having said that, I think Knox could be a good TE2 for the foreseeable future. Let's see if Hollister can be an effective TE1 (with the hopes that Josh's familiarity with him gives a boost to his pass-catching effectiveness). Then draft a TE late, and let him battle it out with Becker for TE3. We need to have Diggs getting at least 10 targets a game. I'm against any move that lowers that number.
Rochesterfan Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 5 hours ago, nato7412 said: NYG is possible, our first is 620 pts, they could give 42 and 76 for it which would be 690 so a slight overpay. We have 2 5ths so we could add one of those to sweeten the deal(those are about 23 pts) Nice Job responding even not as the OP, but then who are the Giants overpaying for to move up to 30. I am sure there might be someone that falls, but to risk a drop of 12 with so few talented TEs in the draft - I am not sure he makes it.
Rochesterfan Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 5 hours ago, BornAgainBillsFan said: I'd be right there with you, BBG, if he'd shown any improvement this past year. But he didn't. Still woefully inconsistent hands and below average blocking. Having said that, I think Knox could be a good TE2 for the foreseeable future. Let's see if Hollister can be an effective TE1 (with the hopes that Josh's familiarity with him gives a boost to his pass-catching effectiveness). Then draft a TE late, and let him battle it out with Becker for TE3. We need to have Diggs getting at least 10 targets a game. I'm against any move that lowers that number. I just do not see Becker as TE3. The Bills still have Gilliam and Sweeney along with Knox and Hollister. My guess is Hollister and Gilliam battle it out for special teams/H back role and Knox/Sweeney are your in line guys. Becker is your Smith replacement and I think sits on the PS until they want the extra OLine blocking help - similar to Smith last year. With 5 TEs on the roster and 4 of them being very young - I just don’t see a late flyer at TE. If you are drafting one - it has to replace a top 2 position and I do not see that in this draft in a viable spot. If they trade for one they are again looking at higher end. I know it will tick people off, but I think they are set with the TE room. They have a better blocker/H back now in Hollister and athletic TE in Knox as their 1-2 punch and Sweeney can fill either role and Gilliam showed special team prowess and an ability to both block and catch as needed.
babulator Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 7 hours ago, Brennan Huff said: If we don’t go pass rush specialist with our first pick then I am so done with this team There likely won't be any top tier rushers when we pick. I would not trade up for anybody in this draft and I'm not sure Ossai or anyone else makes it down to us. Would you draft 2nd or 3rd round talent with your 1st pick? That's likely the situation we'll be in. We'll probably take a corner with our 1st pick but id up for trading back for Friermuth.
whorlnut Posted March 22, 2021 Author Posted March 22, 2021 7 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said: I definitely would not give up on Dawson Knox yet, were always trying to replace guys that look promising, not really sure what the deal is with that. Dawson barely saw action in that Ole Miss offense coming out of college, the guy has shown glimpses of being a really dominant TE at times, I think it's going to take him a bit longer to develop since he didn't have the reps of alot of these other tight ends. I'm still interested to see what Knox brings to the table because I think his best football hasn't been played yet imo. Maybe so, but Beane has been very involved in looking to upgrade this off-season. He’s the one calling the shots. 1
whorlnut Posted March 22, 2021 Author Posted March 22, 2021 8 hours ago, Brennan Huff said: If we don’t go pass rush specialist with our first pick then I am so done with this team What if it’s the fourth or fifth option and they don’t fit our scheme? What if it’s an Epenesa clone and isn’t a fast twitch athlete? There is so much more that goes into a pick than if he’s just a specific position. Pass rush is definitely something they will look at, but don’t kid yourself and think Beane isn’t looking at every option to upgrade TE this off-season. He’s seen how elite TEs can carve up his team and it’s pretty clear he wants one of his own.
Solomon Grundy Posted March 22, 2021 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Please tell me how this trade works on the chart... extra credit if you can identify trading team and who they are moving up for.. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp 36 & 81 wouldn't be a bad move. Not saying that Miami do this with in conference rival. Edited March 22, 2021 by Solomon Grundy
Recommended Posts