Are you scared of the CAP?

[CaptnCoke11]

We do have a team that was 13-3 last season and most of the guys are back.  There’s no need to be restructuring all these big contracts we currently have and pushing money down the road to future years when Beane has to pay Allen and Diggs very shortly.  Sign a depth guy or two then draft well.  

Edited March 18, 2021 by CaptnCoke11

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Bills fans are a bit frugal when it comes to analysis. It has nothing to do with their history. It’s because their team is currently paying Mario Addison, star lotulolei, and Aj Klein a large percentage of the cap. 

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Because the CAP is meaningless - they should not be afraid of the money and Fisher could come back and be their savior.

 

They cut them because the 2 players are not worth the contract at this point

 

Fisher couldn't come back and be the saviour. That is the point. And Schwartz's back might be done, hence his market has been very slow. 

[CountDorkula]

NO the only reason this is a topic currently is because of a global pandemic.

Next Year when the cap goes to nearly 200mil nobody blinks an eye.

[mjt328]

It is true the salary cap can often be manipulated, and room can be made to fit certain contracts.

GMs do this by either asking a player for a pay cut, or restructuring and pushing the cap-hit into later years.

 

The problem is, eventually players stop being willing to take pay cuts.  They want the money they earned.

And eventually players reach an age where you simply can't push their cap hits into later seasons.  

That's when you are forced to start releasing/cutting players, and the quality of your team takes a serious hit.

 

////////

 

Some fans seem upset that Kansas City is able to be a player in Free Agency this year.  But let's take a closer look.

The Chiefs were forced to cut both starting tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz).  They have a half dozen free agents who started double-digit games last year, who they cannot re-sign (Sammy Watkins, DeMarcus Robinson, Austin Reiter, Bashaud Breeland, Damien Wilson, Tanoh Kpassagnon).  They have also made contract restructures for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones.

 

Yes, they were able to get Joe Thuney in free agency.  But his cap hit will only be $5 million this year.  Next year's it will be over $17 million.  Next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7 million to $35 million (and his current contract already goes to age 37, so restructuring is going to be difficult).  Jones' hit goes from $8 million to $29 million.  Kelce's hit goes from $5 million to $9 million.  

 

This offseason, the Chiefs are going to be forced to replace some solid/fringe starters and depth across the roster.  They still have key pieces, so they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites.  But by 2022, they will be forced to make some hard decisions about guys like Tyreek Hill and Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathiu.  They won't be able to keep everybody.  And that's when the teams nipping at their heels right now (like the Bills) will have a perfect opportunity to overtake them.

 

//////////

 

Bottom line.  You can be a team that pushes all of its chips into the middle of the table (like the Bucs, Chiefs or Rams), and mortgages future years to win a Super Bowl now.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy, and sometimes it works.  But eventually the bill comes due, and you will be forced to rebuild the roster from the ground-up.  A good example is Seattle, where they are currently struggling to rebuild a contender around Russell Wilson.

 

My feeling is that Brandon Beane wants a team like the Patriots, Steelers or Packers.  A team that can be a consistent winner and Super Bowl contender for the duration of their franchise QB's career.  These teams usually build through the draft, and then use free agent dollars to retain their own.  Or they wait for the bargains to come around after the first wave of free agency is over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2021 by mjt328

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

This is just plain stupid - If KC was not afraid of the cap why did they get rid of their 2 tackles without replacements.  Because they freed up Cap space to sign others - while both being injured for next season.
 

Why did they not sign Trent Williams like you said - oh because at some point it costs more than the players worth.  They must be a little scared of the CAP or you go higher to get the guy you want.

 

Why didn’t they sign Hunter Henry or Smith to supplement the TE position, Why didn’t they sign a quality WR as they really could use talent at WR as was shown in the SB.  
 

At some point every team has to make Cap related decisions - the question is how much do you want to push to the future and how much do you want to get out of the way.  KC has been ok for several years (prior to Mahomes), but never way over spent.  It became a thing in KC once they paid the QB and got a structure from the deal that they could manipulate.  The best team in this salary cap era is NE and they rarely got into salary cap jail - which kept them good for a long, long time.  The Saints should have been that successful, but their CAP management was terrible and they kept pushing bonuses to the future until bam they have to do stupid deals that will hurt the team going forward.

 

Beane is not adverse to borrowing from the future, but he is trying to balance that out so you become a contender for a long time.  The Mahomes restructure is nice one year - just pushes the money forward a bit, but then if they do it again and again eventually that dead CAP will cost you 3-4 players.  His deal already cost you OL depth and a 2nd SB.  Now it looks like it is costing you OL and WR talent.

 

 

Um ... Fisher was going to be out for the season in the final year of his contract, and Schwartz has a major back issue. Back injuries for big men are bad news. As for Fisher, he is literally worth zero dollars in the final year of his contract. Only a fool wouldn’t cut him.

Edited March 18, 2021 by dave mcbride

[DJB]

I'm more scared of the Clap

[CountDorkula]

7 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

It is true the salary cap can often be manipulated, and room can be made to fit certain contracts.

GMs do this by either asking a player for a pay cut, or restructuring and pushing the cap-hit into later years.

 

The problem is, eventually players stop being willing to take pay cuts.  They want the money they earned.

And eventually players reach an age where you simply can't push their cap hits into later seasons.  

That's when you are forced to start releasing/cutting players, and the quality of your team takes a serious hit.

 

////////

 

Some fans seem upset that Kansas City is able to be a player in Free Agency this year.  But let's take a closer look.

The Chiefs were forced to cut both starting tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz).  They have a half dozen free agents who started double-digit games last year, who they cannot re-sign (Sammy Watkins, DeMarcus Robinson, Austin Reiter, Bashaud Breeland, Damien Wilson, Tanoh Kpassagnon).  They have also made contract restructures for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones.

 

Yes, they were able to get Joe Thuney in free agency.  But his cap hit will only be $5 million this year.  Next year's it will be over $17 million.  Next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7 million to $35 million (and his current contract already goes to age 37, so restructuring is going to be difficult).  Jones' hit goes from $8 million to $29 million.  Kelce's hit goes from $5 million to $9 million.  

 

This offseason, the Chiefs are going to be forced to replace some solid/fringe starters and depth across the roster.  They still have key pieces, so they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites.  But by 2022, they will be forced to make some hard decisions about guys like Tyreek Hill and Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathiu.  They won't be able to keep everybody.  And that's when the teams nipping at their heels right now (like the Bills) will have a perfect opportunity to overtake them.

 

//////////

 

Bottom line.  You can be a team that pushes all of its chips into the middle of the table (like the Bucs, Chiefs or Rams), and mortgages future years to win a Super Bowl now.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy, and sometimes it works.  But eventually the bill comes due, and you will be forced to rebuild the roster from the ground-up.  A good example is Seattle, where they are currently struggling to rebuild a contender around Russell Wilson.

 

My feeling is that Brandon Beane wants a team like the Patriots, Steelers or Packers.  A team that can be a consistent winner and Super Bowl contender for the duration of their franchise QB's career.  These teams usually build through the draft, and then use free agent dollars to retain their own.  Or they wait for the bargains to come around after the first wave of free agency is over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What if i told you the Patriots are really bad at drafting and have been for a long time.

 

Seattle will be back in the Playoffs and be a contender as long as they have Russ.

 

The Saints were 112 million over the cap.

They were over the Cap when the signed Jarius Byrd.

 

teams do it all the time.

 

The Bills could free up 30 Million in the blink of an eye.

the Cap is a thing, but anyone who is afraid of it is silly, IMO.

[Rochesterfan]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Um ... Fisher was going to be out for the season in the final year of his contract, and Schwartz has a major back issue. Back injuries for big men are bad news. As for Fisher, he is literally worth zero dollars in the final year of his contract. Only a fool wouldn’t cut him.

 

Totally agree with this - I am saying if the CAP was meaningless and KC was not afraid of it - there would be no reason to make those moves.  KC also would have gone out and signed several other players to improve the team across the board.  Adjusting Mahomes contract does not show a lack of fear of the CAP - it shows that they are evaluating needs and what they are willing to spend - same as every team.

 

The idea that everyone is afraid of the CAP because we have not gone out and restructured everyone is wrong.

 

It will be interesting - What do people expect the CAP to be next year - assuming things are 100% back to normal.  

 

 Let’s say the CAP rises to what it was expected to be this year (pre COVID) about 210 million.  The NFL CAP would have been under 160 Million this year without the adjustments.  If the NFL moves 15 million of the lost cap space off from next year - the CAP next year is back to 2019 levels at 195 million.  If they decide to recoup it all in 1 year the Cap next year could be nearly flat to this year.

 

Everyone is making assumptions about how much the CAP will rise and until we get the actual numbers teams should be smart about pushing excessive amounts of money into next year.  2023 with the new deals should provide the huge growth, but next years CAP is still in flux.

[clayboy54]

What I'm concerned with, is the way Robert Kraft can skirt the rules and defy the principle of the cap and still get away with it. He's the Boogeyman in this scenario. He does it while the other owners kiss his ring.

[Don Otreply]

I’ve almost never been scared... least of all about pro football... 

[Matt_In_NH]

There is no such thing as a cap casualty

[May Day 10]

There is a happy medium.  Really gotta prep for Allen's payday (hopefully).  

 

This particular season is very restrictive as everyone knows.

 

Also, going heavy-handed in FA rarely works out.  Cycling good drafting/coaching with smart decisions letting the correct players walk at the right time is the key.

 

[mjt328]

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

What if i told you the Patriots are really bad at drafting and have been for a long time.

 

The Patriots are not really bad at drafting.

They aren't as good as their reputation, but Belichick did a solid job of keeping a good enough team around Tom Brady.  

He almost never splurged on free agents, which is the point I was trying to make.

 

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Seattle will be back in the Playoffs and be a contender as long as they have Russ.

 

Is Seattle a serious Super Bowl contender though?  I'm not so sure.  

Russell Wilson is frustrated and complaining that the Seahawks can't give him a decent O-Line, and the defense is trash.

The best players on the team outside of Wilson (Jamal Adams and DK Metcalf) are still on rookie contracts.  

 

They have no space this season to add players, which is exactly my point.  They are in the prime of Wilson's career and can't upgrade the roster around him enough to give them a serious shot at the Super Bowl.

 

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

The Saints were 112 million over the cap.

They were over the Cap when the signed Jarius Byrd.

 

Have you seen the list of players the Saints were forced to release?  They completely gutted the team to get back to zero.

 

New Orleans has a reputation of being constantly good, but after their 2009 Super Bowl year, they had multiple 7-9 seasons where they missed the playoffs.  Look at the 2012, 2014-2016 seasons.  They totally wasted Drew Brees in his prime for those years.  Why?  Because they had to reconstruct the roster to makeup for their cap problems.  Byrd's stupid contract was a major reason for that.

 

They were ultimately able to rebuild (mostly through the draft), then make one more 4-year run before Brees called it quits.

Was it worth it?  They never won another Super Bowl. 

 

 

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

teams do it all the time.

 

The Bills could free up 30 Million in the blink of an eye.

the Cap is a thing, but anyone who is afraid of it is silly, IMO.

 

Sure they could.  And maybe they still will.

But there are long-term consequences.  And maybe Beane believes throwing $10 million per year at Carl Lawson isn't worth the player(s) it will cost him 2-4 years down the line.

 

 

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

The cap isn't completely meaningless, but I do think Bills fans assign way too much importance to it. You can look around the NFL and see many teams doing creative things to get around the cap. 

 

The Saints have been in cap hell for multiple years now. During that time they've been one of the best teams in the league, and a perennial super bowl contender (no SB appearances, but they've had brutal playoff losses). Have they really had to pay for manipulating the cap? If they have I'm not seeing it. 

 

Teams will sometimes go into a year realizing they won't be competitive and decide to bite the bullet on bad contracts (see: 2018 Buffalo Bills ). We didn't HAVE to eat 30mm in dead cap by trading away Dareus, Glenn, and Taylor, but we CHOSE to do that to give us more of an advantage in 2019.

 

Teams are only punished by the cap when they chose to be. 

[thurst44]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

We do have a team that was 13-3 last season and most of the guys are back.  There’s no need to be restructuring all these big contracts we currently have and pushing money down the road to future years when Beane has to pay Allen and Diggs very shortly.  Sign a depth guy or two then draft well.  

I agree with you mostly, but it's also very likely the salary cap is going to explode in the next few years. Is it savvy to play off that idea (like Bill Belichick seems to be doing) or savvy to hedge your bets? I'm not going to claim I know the answer. I'm no capologist, but from my vantage, it seems we're nowhere near the dangerous ledges the Saints and Falcons and others have put themselves on and we can probably afford a couple restructures to get a bargain-with-upside DE, CB2, TE. I'd avoid RB, b/c free agent RBs are so rarely worth their price and their success can so often be a part of the offense they are in more than some positions. 

 

One of the restructures could even incorporate Diggs' raise for 2022 and beyond. Furthermore, I suspect the clauses for Dawkins and White are there for that reason. Barring something terrible happening, we will still want them around at the end of their contract. 

 

That said, I'm also fine with rolling with the current roster. We were indeed 13-3 and a game away from the Super Bowl and I've never bought into the idea you should play to beat one other team. They don't have many (if any) glaring holes (pass rush was not great but not as awful as people think--we were middle of the pack on sacks and many analysts pointed out we were actually pretty good at winning our blocks), and a lot of young players who are likely to step up next year (Oliver and Edmunds are likely nowhere near their ceiling). 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Bills fans are a bit frugal when it comes to analysis. It has nothing to do with their history. It’s because their team is currently paying Mario Addison, star lotulolei, and Aj Klein a large percentage of the cap. 

Well those players are getting more than I would have imagined before hand. I recall seeing their #'s and was pretty surprised at the amount they got. Definitely more than I would have predicted then. 

 

At least Klein showed some promise after a few bad games. He really redeemed himself and played well. 

[Patrick Duffy]

As for the OP, lol at "scared of the cap". I know you mean "worried" instead of "scared" I suppose. Anyway, speaking for myself, I'm not really scared of anything or anyone, however I do respect things. Like I'm not scared of a tornado, but I damn sure respect it.

[LabattBlue]

I’m so scared I’ve been sleeping with the lights on.  Make it stop!!!

[Milanos Milano]

The CAP?  The communist American party?