RichRiderBills Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, BillsVet said: On the cusp of a new league year, the latest Bills narrative advanced is that continuity is the way forward. To that point, they retained pending UFAs while restructuring others now slotting them with less cap space when you consider rookie signing requirements. Doing the same thing over again, albeit even on a 13-3 team, is no guarantee of success. Schematically, Buffalo was predictable on both sides of the ball last year and personnel issues have not been addressed for 2021, such as: 1. An ineffective running game which didn't get much push on the interior. Both their starting C and RG have been restructured/retained. The LG is a RFA and perhaps average. 2. The inability generate a good pass rush. Aside from cutting one DLineman, they've largely kept that unit intact and their defense in 2020 was the highest paid unit by more than 9.5M? This will likely remain the case in 2021? 3. Teams could throw in Buffalo, even with a very pricey secondary. That was helped, particularly in the AFC CG, by a defense which sat on its heels. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2020/defense/ Perhaps Buffalo has another signing planned and other roster clipping to make for more cap space. Perhaps younger guys elevate their level of play. Perhaps they have a draft pick come in and play well from the start. Retaining the same players who struggled to address those primary issues does not inspire a lot of confidence. Nor would employing the same offense and defense scheme as the HC is wont to do. I just don't want to see this team become like the late (EDIT: Green Bay) McCarthy years when they expected to succeed with Rodgers, an average OL and little at the skill positions. Josh deserves more than the status quo. I disagree with most of your points. So do facts and data. This team came up short one game Shy of the superbowl, won in a number of ways and generally had a fantastic season. Bills had the #3 offense overral, often deferring to run because of the effectiveness of the passing game. They gave defenses fits, and their 13-3 record speaks to that. Hardly predictable. The Bills got decent pressure on the QB, ranking #15 in sacks. They were #18 in pass protection, and really improved later on after early struggles. I agree we can improve here, but not by panicked moves. This team will likely never be a true blue power running team. Id be surprised if some move was still in the cards here; likely a young Guard\ Center and some form of dynamic RB or WR. They've downgraded Addison and will likely make some additional moves for players. Please stand by. BTW continuity is no fad or "latest narrative"; its a time tested recipe that has produced excellence. Edited March 15, 2021 by RichRiderBills 1
Alphadawg7 Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, BillsVet said: On the cusp of a new league year, the latest Bills narrative advanced is that continuity is the way forward. To that point, they retained pending UFAs while restructuring others now slotting them with less cap space when you consider rookie signing requirements. Doing the same thing over again, albeit even on a 13-3 team, is no guarantee of success. Schematically, Buffalo was predictable on both sides of the ball last year and personnel issues have not been addressed for 2021, such as: 1. An ineffective running game which didn't get much push on the interior. Both their starting C and RG have been restructured/retained. The LG is a RFA and perhaps average. 2. The inability generate a good pass rush. Aside from cutting one DLineman, they've largely kept that unit intact and their defense in 2020 was the highest paid unit by more than 9.5M? This will likely remain the case in 2021? 3. Teams could throw in Buffalo, even with a very pricey secondary. That was helped, particularly in the AFC CG, by a defense which sat on its heels. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2020/defense/ Perhaps Buffalo has another signing planned and other roster clipping to make for more cap space. Perhaps younger guys elevate their level of play. Perhaps they have a draft pick come in and play well from the start. Retaining the same players who struggled to address those primary issues does not inspire a lot of confidence. Nor would employing the same offense and defense scheme as the HC is wont to do. I just don't want to see this team become like the late (EDIT: Green Bay) McCarthy years when they expected to succeed with Rodgers, an average OL and little at the skill positions. Josh deserves more than the status quo. Are you aware we were 6th in the NFL in pressuring the QB, and got the QB second fastest in the NFL behind only the Steelers? So...I don’t agree with your assessments. Edited March 15, 2021 by Alphadawg7 1
Doc Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 If the Bills can stand pat while their competitors get worse...that’s improving, right? 1
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 46 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said: I disagree with most of your points. So do facts and data. This team came up short one game Shy of the superbowl, won in a number of ways and generally had a fantastic season. Bills had the #3 offense overral, often deferring to run because of the effectiveness of the passing game. They gave defenses fits, and their 13-3 record speaks to that. Hardly predictable. The Bills got decent pressure on the QB, ranking #15 in sacks. They were #18 in pass protection, and really improved later on after early struggles. I agree we can improve here, but not by panicked moves. This team will likely never be a true blue power running team. Id be surprised if some move was still in the cards here; likely a young Guard\ Center and some form of dynamic RB or WR. They've downgraded Addison and will likely make some additional moves for players. Please stand by. BTW continuity is no fad or "latest narrative"; its a time tested recipe that has produced excellence. What "facts and data" do you offer to validate your view? I see some offensive rankings, but who cares? They were defeated by the AFC Champs twice last season. The question is how are they supplanting them beyond the tired narrative that "KC lost their 2 OT's!" Nowhere did I talk about pass protection - they're pretty good there and have a mobile QB who feels pressure quite well. My issue remains with the run blocking, which as others have said, was not good all season. As for the pass rush, McD's scheme looks to generate that from the front 4. Yet, there wasn't one guy on a 51M defensive line who could regularly get to the QB as evidenced by the AFC CG performance. Last year is over. This is the time to reload and I'm seeing the same people back ostensibly playing within the same schemes. Just because it worked last year doesn't guarantee anything next season. BTW, how did you feel about continuity when it was yammered about when Dick Jauron was inexplicably re-signed? Was it a "time-tested recipe" back then as well? 13 minutes ago, Doc said: If the Bills can stand pat while their competitors get worse...that’s improving, right? You're making a massive assumption that everyone (read KC as well) regresses. You'd plan around your competition getting worse as a strategy? Really? 1 1 1
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: Good God - what a worthless post at this point. So the Bills that just went 13-3 and made the AFCCG and are working to retain many pieces of the roster is a bad thing? The fact that the team did not have its starting 5 offensive Linemen play 1 snap together. The fact that they did not have any preseason to adjust either the new O line or D line and had to make those adjustments on the fly. This all means that we can not get better as Allen learns even more and as Moss gets his NFL body under him and the OLine gets some time together with all 5 starters - maybe some of that will allow Daboll to be a bit different. Maybe they played a more conservative defense because that is what had worked to slow down KC prior - now TB showed a different way - do you think the Bills might be able to adapt? Do you think the Bills can better adapt as they know exactly what their team can do? Do you think the Bills might still get players in FA and the draft. And if you are going to use the draft understand they need a bit over 3 million (not the 6 million BS you spout) because of where they are drafting and the top 51 players for the cap. So that doubles what they have left with some other potential money still available. My God - I could understand if this was the middle of September and they were struggling, but with FA just starting - you should turn your fan card in and go sit in time out to think about what you said. 🤦♂️ Last year, as I've noted, has concluded. And nowhere did I say those players they've retained are bad. It's simply a matter of is it enough and my contention is it's not. Fans should be able to discern that every team on their schedule has been dissecting film of Allen and Daboll's offense - as Steve Spagnuolo already did in the AFC Championship. Deal with differing opinions. If you cannot debate scheme, resource allocation, and emerging NFL trends that's cool. But when someone does, don't lose you stuff because it's hard to contemplate.
RichRiderBills Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, BillsVet said: What "facts and data" do you offer to validate your view? I see some offensive rankings, but who cares? They were defeated by the AFC Champs twice last season. The question is how are they supplanting them beyond the tired narrative that "KC lost their 2 OT's!" Nowhere did I talk about pass protection - they're pretty good there and have a mobile QB who feels pressure quite well. My issue remains with the run blocking, which as others have said, was not good all season. As for the pass rush, McD's scheme looks to generate that from the front 4. Yet, there wasn't one guy on a 51M defensive line who could regularly get to the QB as evidenced by the AFC CG performance. Last year is over. This is the time to reload and I'm seeing the same people back ostensibly playing within the same schemes. Just because it worked last year doesn't guarantee anything next season. BTW, how did you feel about continuity when it was yammered about when Dick Jauron was inexplicably re-signed? Was it a "time-tested recipe" back then as well? You're making a massive assumption that everyone (read KC as well) regresses. You'd plan around your competition getting worse as a strategy? Really? I meant pass defense ...Bills pass defense was #18, and much better down the stretch. We were excellent the season prior, and that tells you the fix is not as elaborate and big moves are not needed. The Bills had and excellent DVOA rank at seasons end, finishing 4th overral. Fourth, we come to the Buffalo Bills, who end the year as the top team in the AFC. The Bills are also red hot right now with DVOA over 40% in six straight games. In our weighted DVOA ratings, which lower the strength of early games to get a better idea of how teams are playing now, the Bills have narrowly passed New Orleans to rank as the No. 1 team going into the postseason. That from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/final-2020-dvoa-ratings We could all around with more data and facts, like how tough our strength of schedule was, how the Bills played versus top 10 defenses and top offenses...how they played against playoff teams. But you can google that stuff. Hint; it supports that both 2020 ( and 2019) were very good seasons..not Jauron years with no results. Its frustrating to hear a viewpoint like yours. It was a great season, and I think your missing the incredible accomplishement and consistancy, and instead can only see the few blemishes. We were 6-0 in division and beat two very good teams in the playoffs. I love that we're creating a stable base . Edited March 15, 2021 by RichRiderBills
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 Just now, RichRiderBills said: I meant pass defense Bills defense was #18 there and much better down the stretch. We were excellent the season prior, amd that tells you the fix is not as elaborate and big moves are not needed. The Bills had and excellent DVOA rank at seasons end, finishing 4th overral. Fourth, we come to the Buffalo Bills, who end the year as the top team in the AFC. The Bills are also red hot right now with DVOA over 40% in six straight games. In our weighted DVOA ratings, which lower the strength of early games to get a better idea of how teams are playing now, the Bills have narrowly passed New Orleans to rank as the No. 1 team going into the postseason. That from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/final-2020-dvoa-ratings We could all around with more data and facts, like how tough our strength of schedule was, how the Bills played versus top 10 defenses and top offenses...how they played against playoff teams. But you can google that stuff. Hint; it supports that both 2020 ( and 2019) was a very good season. Its frustrating to hear a viewpoint like yours. It was a great season, and I think your missing the incredible accomplishement and consistancy, and instead can only see the few blemishes. We were 6-0 in division and beat two very good teams in the playoffs. I love that we're creating a stable base . For the record, they had the most expensive defense in the NFL. If they're going to need that again or close to it in 2021, that's pretty clear the investment to get to the 18th overall defense (your assertion not mine) is a poor ROI. Spending big dollars on a defense that doesn't get to the QB and cannot hold down QB's is not good enough when it takes 100M to staff it. Their pass defense against Mahomes broke down when it mattered most. Either that was a scheme or personnel issue and we'll see if they correct it. Last year is still over and if you're not improving, you're regressing. This is not hard, but it does require an objective analysis which many fans are unwilling to acknowledge. Many of you are already forgetting they were thrashed in the AFC Championship, just as the year before people saw Houston overcome a 16 point deficit by the time February rolled around and UFA was about to start. 1 1
John from Riverside Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, BillsVet said: For the record, they had the most expensive defense in the NFL. If they're going to need that again or close to it in 2021, that's pretty clear the investment to get to the 18th overall defense (your assertion not mine) is a poor ROI. Spending big dollars on a defense that doesn't get to the QB and cannot hold down QB's is not good enough when it takes 100M to staff it. Their pass defense against Mahomes broke down when it mattered most. Either that was a scheme or personnel issue and we'll see if they correct it. Last year is still over and if you're not improving, you're regressing. This is not hard, but it does require an objective analysis which many fans are unwilling to acknowledge. Many of you are already forgetting they were thrashed in the AFC Championship, just as the year before people saw Houston overcome a 16 point deficit by the time February rolled around and UFA was about to start. Didnt the Chiefs....with the exception of 2 teams last year pretty much trash everybody? Maybe the answer against that team is to control the ball and not let Mahommes and company go off
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 Just now, John from Riverside said: Didnt the Chiefs....with the exception of 2 teams last year pretty much trash everybody? Maybe the answer against that team is to control the ball and not let Mahommes and company go off If the goal is to be second best in your conference this year, yeah...sure.
John from Riverside Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BillsVet said: If the goal is to be second best in your conference this year, yeah...sure. It sounds like you want to "out chief" the chiefs I dont know if that is a great solution either
Rochesterfan Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, BillsVet said: Last year, as I've noted, has concluded. And nowhere did I say those players they've retained are bad. It's simply a matter of is it enough and my contention is it's not. Fans should be able to discern that every team on their schedule has been dissecting film of Allen and Daboll's offense - as Steve Spagnuolo already did in the AFC Championship. Deal with differing opinions. If you cannot debate scheme, resource allocation, and emerging NFL trends that's cool. But when someone does, don't lose you stuff because it's hard to contemplate. Yes - so you have been debated throughout the thread and almost universally told to relax and see where we are going and you counter with it is not last year. No kidding - so therefore we should expect the young players to improve and the guys that were injured early in the year to be healthy and therefore we should expect some improvement. We have the ability at this point to start 5 guys that they wanted to start last year and never got to play a snap together, but still managed to be an above average OLine with the injuries and have both RBs average over 4 YPC. Maybe seeing as those players are all getting some time together could they improve. We have a defense that put together a good 2nd half of the season as players got healthy and we are looking to build on that. We have a staff that is always looking to find ways to get better- so the expectations rise and the players and coaches self scout and adjust. Are last years Bills as good as last years KC team - based on results - No, but they were not far off and the expectations as KC has to remodel their entire OLine and WRs means that there is no reason not to expect the Bills to have gained on them. So while at the moment the Bills are pretty much status Quo the KC team is at a net negative. So yes - I think the Bills have closed the gap on the only AFC team better than them last year. I also believe the AFC east will be significantly better this year, but the Bills overall schedule will be significantly easier and so I would expect them to be around 13-3 again - the question becomes does that drive home enough wins to be the #1 seed as I think KC gets pushed harder by other teams after showing some weakness. Finally of course fans and teams have been dissecting the Bills offense and that is incumbent upon the staff to adjust, but why would you not expect the team to adjust. The offense last year was a heck of a lot different from 2019 with scheme and playcalling, but you do not think they can adjust by bringing back the players. I think the continuity allows Daboll to begin at a higher level and add more plays and more things the defenses need to figure out. This still does not even include any additional trades, FA signings, and draft picks that can all come in and improve the team. As I said - your post is fine for mid-September if we are struggling, but for an hour before FA starts - it was garbage. Edited March 15, 2021 by Rochesterfan 1
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 Just now, John from Riverside said: It sounds like you want to "out chief" the chiefs I dont know if that is a great solution either Never said that John. Chiefs are the best team in the AFC and after that showing last year they need to do more than the status quo. Pass rush would be a good place to start with a veteran who isn't elderly or young unproven draft pick.
John from Riverside Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BillsVet said: Never said that John. Chiefs are the best team in the AFC and after that showing last year they need to do more than the status quo. Pass rush would be a good place to start with a veteran who isn't elderly or young unproven draft pick. So in a year where there is massive blood letting due to the cap the bills manage to keep most of their players that made it to the AFC Championship game prior to the start of free agency.....and you see that as a BAD thing The chiefs have literally lost their offensive line Im sorry man....you are just not making any sense 1 2
Motorin' Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 3 hours ago, JDHillFan said: Schematically so predictable that they led the AFC in scoring. Sign me up for more schematically predictable. Yeah, I think it was less about schematic predictability as it was them not doing a good enough job changing up their call signals.
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: Yes - so you have been debated throughout the thread and almost universally told to relax and see where we are going and you counter with it is not last year. No kidding - so therefore we should expect the young players to improve and the guys that were injured early in the year to be healthy and therefore we should expect some improvement. We have the ability at this point to start 5 guys that they wanted to start last year and never got to play a snap together, but still managed to be an above average OLine with the injuries and have both RBs average over 4 YPC. Maybe seeing as those players are all getting some time together could they improve. We have a defense that put together a good 2nd half of the season as players got healthy and we are looking to build on that. We have a staff that is always looking to find ways to get better- so the expectations rise and the players and coaches self scout and adjust. Are last years Bills as good as last years KC team - based on results - No, but they were not far off and the expectations as KC has to remodel their entire OLine and WRs means that there is no reason not to expect the Bills to have gained on them. So while at the moment the Bills are pretty much status Quo the KC team is at a net negative. So yes - I think the Bills have closed the gap on the only AFC team better than them last year. I also believe the AFC east will be significantly better this year, but the Bills overall schedule will be significantly easier and so I would expect them to be around 13-3 again - the question becomes does that drive home enough wins to be the #1 seed as I think KC gets pushed harder by other teams after showing some weakness. Finally of course fans and teams have been dissecting the Bills offense and that is incumbent upon the staff to adjust, but why would you not expect the team to adjust. The offense last year was a heck of a lot different from 2019 with scheme and playcalling, but you do not think they can adjust by bringing back the players. I think the continuity allows Daboll to begin at a higher level and add more plays and more things the defenses need to figure out. This still does not even include any additional trades, FA signings, and draft picks that can all come in and improve the team. As I said - your post is fine for mid-September if we are struggling, but for an hour before FA starts - it was garbage. You've missed the point entirely. Every team in the league is doing what Buffalo does: assess their team and look to improve. But that requires having cap flexibility and evaluating where your scheme requires more talent. The offense was better in 2020 because Allen made the leap, they traded for Diggs all the while having Brown and Beasley. The OL got a solid RT who thankfully was re-signed. They don't have much cap room now to add another weapon right now. Already in 2021, they've lost their WR2 and not improved a pass rush with an interior OL likely be the same. Meanwhile, they're again going to spending 100M on a defense which delivered mediocre to average results last year. It did not show up when they needed it most. Question is: Does an essentially static group of starters put them over the top? If you disagree, fine. Making broad assumptions ain't what I consider much of a response either.
Rochesterfan Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 Just now, BillsVet said: Never said that John. Chiefs are the best team in the AFC and after that showing last year they need to do more than the status quo. Pass rush would be a good place to start with a veteran who isn't elderly or young unproven draft pick. Maybe a rookie going on his second year that gets an entire off season. Maybe the return to health of both LBs that they used a ton in the zero gap in 2019, but only limited in 2020 due to injuries. I think there are many ways the Bills improve just by getting healthier. For example having even 1 healthy WR in the playoff game might have made a huge difference, but the fact that all 4 starting WRs were injured and limited had a big impact. Sometimes status quo is actually getting better if the team you are chasing is getting worse as KC appears to be. Sometimes making a bunch of additions via FA does not improve a team as guys struggle to come together. As I said - I will wait and pass judgement later. Right now - status quo is good.
Rochesterfan Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, BillsVet said: You've missed the point entirely. Every team in the league is doing what Buffalo does: assess their team and look to improve. But that requires having cap flexibility and evaluating where your scheme requires more talent. The offense was better in 2020 because Allen made the leap, they traded for Diggs all the while having Brown and Beasley. The OL got a solid RT who thankfully was re-signed. They don't have much cap room now to add another weapon right now. Already in 2021, they've lost their WR2 and not improved a pass rush with an interior OL likely be the same. Meanwhile, they're again going to spending 100M on a defense which delivered mediocre to average results last year. It did not show up when they needed it most. Question is: Does an essentially static group of starters put them over the top? If you disagree, fine. Making broad assumptions ain't what I consider much of a response either. It seems that most fans agree that yes a static group of starters that has consistently shown improvement when healthy is better than what KC has done in losing their entire OLine. That WR2 they lost missed several games and the Bills managed to go 5-0 when he was out. His replacement also was the only receiver in the NFL to have over 20 catches and average over 19 yards a catch in the entire NFL over the last 6 games (per Sal). So yes they have lost a little, but they adjusted last year and they have guys to continue to adjust. With Davis and Hodgkins - maybe they look to big body some DBs and perform more double moves. The entire offense might change with out Brown as they move to more and different route combos. Just saying - well they are the same and therefore worse is foolish. They are young and have a staff that has changed up every year as the players develop - there is no reason to assume they are just sitting there even with nearly the same roster.
clayboy54 Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 1 hour ago, BillsVet said: Last year is over. This is the time to reload and I'm seeing the same people back ostensibly playing within the same schemes. Just because it worked last year doesn't guarantee anything next season. How in the world do you know the Bills will be playing with the same schemes? I can't imagine that would ever happen year-to-year in the NFL. The same players in a new and revised scheme to better reflect their personal growth and another year of continuity may very well put this team over the top. It might not too, but it is foolhardy to expect the team to trot out with the same schemes.
John from Riverside Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: If you want to "control the ball" against the Chiefs you gotta convert 3rd downs.... the Bills couldn't do that due to offensive line breakdowns(Specifically the guy they just resigned-Feliciano) and their receivers not being able to get open. These are all areas where the Bills need to improve along with getting a better pass rush which was also exposed against the Chiefs.... it was laughable how easy it was for them and it was pretty eye opening the gap between the two teams. The Bills have doubled down on some questionable players(Addison, Feliciano). Hopefully they figure out a way to give the team a significant piece or two in FA than just status quo because it clearly wasn't good enough. Is this a bad time to point out that Mongo has been a good player for us and played with a torn pec?
BillsVet Posted March 15, 2021 Author Posted March 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, clayboy54 said: How in the world do you know the Bills will be playing with the same schemes? I can't imagine that would ever happen year-to-year in the NFL. The same players in a new and revised scheme to better reflect their personal growth and another year of continuity may very well put this team over the top. It might not too, but it is foolhardy to expect the team to trot out with the same schemes. The HC needs an 8-9 DL man rotation which typically eats up 22-25% of their cap. It's always been his MO to demand that depth to support the defense he runs. I'm not saying they're completely without scheme versatility, but what they want to do on defense is neither cost efficient nor productive anymore. And it's not likely to be improved much. That said, everyone has had another year of film on Buffalo.
Recommended Posts