A case against continuity

[BillsVet]

On the cusp of a new league year, the latest Bills narrative advanced is that continuity is the way forward.  To that point, they retained pending UFAs while restructuring others now slotting them with less cap space when you consider rookie signing requirements. 

 

Doing the same thing over again, albeit even on a 13-3 team, is no guarantee of success.  Schematically, Buffalo was predictable on both sides of the ball last year and personnel issues have not been addressed for 2021, such as:

 

1. An ineffective running game which didn't get much push on the interior.  Both their starting C and RG have been restructured/retained.  The LG is a RFA and perhaps average.  

2. The inability generate a good pass rush.  Aside from cutting one DLineman, they've largely kept that unit intact and their defense in 2020 was the highest paid unit by more than 9.5M? This will likely remain the case in 2021? 

3.  Teams could throw in Buffalo, even with a very pricey secondary.  That was helped, particularly in the AFC CG, by a defense which sat on its heels. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2020/defense/

 

Perhaps Buffalo has another signing planned and other roster clipping to make for more cap space.  Perhaps younger guys elevate their level of play.  Perhaps they have a draft pick come in and play well from the start.

 

Retaining the same players who struggled to address those primary issues does not inspire a lot of confidence.  Nor would employing the same offense and defense scheme as the HC is wont to do.  I just don't want to see this team become like the late (EDIT: Green Bay) McCarthy years when they expected to succeed with Rodgers, an average OL and little at the skill positions.  Josh deserves more than the status quo. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by BillsVet

[Jauronimo]

Can we at least wait until free agency starts or better yet, preseason ball before we say everything is the same?

[BuffaloRebound]

1 minute ago, BillsVet said:

On the cusp of a new league year, the latest Bills narrative advanced is that continuity is the way forward.  To that point, they retained pending UFAs while restructuring others now slotting them with less cap space when you consider rookie signing requirements. 

 

Doing the same thing over again, albeit even on a 13-3 team, is no guarantee of success.  Schematically, Buffalo was predictable on both sides of the ball last year and personnel issues have not been addressed for 2021, such as:

 

1. An ineffective running game which didn't get much push on the interior.  Both their starting C and RG have been restructured/retained.  The LG is a RFA and perhaps average.  

2. The inability generate a good pass rush.  Aside from cutting one DLineman, they've largely kept that unit intact and their defense in 2020 was the highest paid unit by more than 9.5M? This will likely remain the case in 2021? 

3.  Teams could throw in Buffalo, even with a very pricey secondary.  That was helped, particularly in the AFC CG, by a defense which sat on its heels. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2020/defense/

 

Perhaps Buffalo has another signing planned and other roster clipping to make for more cap space.  Perhaps younger guys elevate their level of play.  Perhaps they have a draft pick come in and play well from the start.

 

Retaining the same players who struggled to address those primary issues does not inspire a lot of confidence.  Nor would employing the same offense and defense scheme as the HC is wont to do.  I just don't want to see this team become like the late McCarthy years when they expected to succeed with Rodgers, an average OL and little at the skill positions.  Josh deserves more than the status quo. 

Free agency is 4 minutes old.  

[JoPoy88]

Turning the roster over has no “guarantee of success” either, so what’s your point?

[Doc]

Besides FA, there’s still an opportunity to get better through the draft. 

[KGun12TD]

Some people are never happy...UGH!!!

[BuffaloBill]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

Besides FA, there’s still an opportunity to get better through the draft. 

Correct, like every team out there the Bills should land one or two starters and one or two strong contributors through the draft.

[John from Riverside]

Do you know if we didn’t just play in the AFC championship game this thread would mean so much more

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Don’t underestimate player development and increased experience (especially playoff experience).
 

Bringing back the exact same team from last year and they are automatically a better team. 
 

That said, I think we will see them in free agency and draft make some key upgrades still.

[Jerome007]

3 minutes ago, KGun12TD said:

Some people are never happy...UGH!!!

And forget that the much lower than expected salary cap changes things for ALL teams.. Staying the same is actually a GREAT thing if other teams regress! Especially for a 13-3 team. And as mentioned, it's not over, at all.

[Rico]

Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Don’t underestimate player development and increased experience (especially playoff experience).
 

Bringing back the exact same team from last year and they are automatically a better team. 
 

That said, I think we will see them in free agency and draft make some key upgrades still.

Full training camp + pre-season can also help.

[stosh64]

13 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

On the cusp of a new league year, the latest Bills narrative advanced is that continuity is the way forward.  To that point, they retained pending UFAs while restructuring others now slotting them with less cap space when you consider rookie signing requirements. 

 

Doing the same thing over again, albeit even on a 13-3 team, is no guarantee of success.  Schematically, Buffalo was predictable on both sides of the ball last year and personnel issues have not been addressed for 2021, such as:

 

1. An ineffective running game which didn't get much push on the interior.  Both their starting C and RG have been restructured/retained.  The LG is a RFA and perhaps average.  

2. The inability generate a good pass rush.  Aside from cutting one DLineman, they've largely kept that unit intact and their defense in 2020 was the highest paid unit by more than 9.5M? This will likely remain the case in 2021? 

3.  Teams could throw in Buffalo, even with a very pricey secondary.  That was helped, particularly in the AFC CG, by a defense which sat on its heels. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2020/defense/

 

Perhaps Buffalo has another signing planned and other roster clipping to make for more cap space.  Perhaps younger guys elevate their level of play.  Perhaps they have a draft pick come in and play well from the start.

 

Retaining the same players who struggled to address those primary issues does not inspire a lot of confidence.  Nor would employing the same offense and defense scheme as the HC is wont to do.  I just don't want to see this team become like the late McCarthy years when they expected to succeed with Rodgers, an average OL and little at the skill positions.  Josh deserves more than the status quo. 

So we are as good as we were last year BEFORE F/A and BEFORE the draft?

What a **** position to be in, fire everyone!!

sarc/off

[Tenhigh]

1 minute ago, Jerome007 said:

And forget that the much lower than expected salary cap changes things for ALL teams.. Staying the same is actually a GREAT thing if other teams regress! Especially for a 13-3 team. And as mentioned, it's not over, at all.

This year is only a boon for teams with lots of cap space.  Fortunately,  most of them are terrible.  For the good teams, like the Bills, not losing your good starters and building through the draft should lead to success. I do expect more parity this year though, as bad teams get talent infused and good teams lose key starters to cap casualties. 

[BillsVet]

17 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Can we at least wait until free agency starts or better yet, preseason ball before we say everything is the same?

 

With ~10M in cap space and rookies yet to sign, there's little room unless other cuts/restructuring occurs.  That's why I'll contend the likelihood is they've made their moves in pro personnel.

 

16 minutes ago, Doc said:

Besides FA, there’s still an opportunity to get better through the draft. 

 

Banking on rookies to come in and play well, particularly at needs like DE, CB, and interior OL from the start is not an effective strategy. 

[Biden is Mentally Fit]

Schematically so predictable that they led the AFC in scoring. Sign me up for more schematically predictable. 

[BillsVet]

12 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

And forget that the much lower than expected salary cap changes things for ALL teams.. Staying the same is actually a GREAT thing if other teams regress! Especially for a 13-3 team. And as mentioned, it's not over, at all.

 

I'm not concerned with AFC dregs like the Jets, Jags, and Texans.  Good teams continuously improve and those are the ones they need to focus on defeating in the post-season.

 

The ante has been raised. 

1 minute ago, JDHillFan said:

Schematically so predictable that they led the AFC in scoring. Sign me up for more schematically predictable. 

 

What happened last season is over.  This is a discussion about 2021. 

 

People have seen Daboll now 3 years.  Josh had a great season and I expect more next year, but QB's can't do it all alone.  You can be sure defenses will do what KC did in the AFC CG to throw him off.  To that end, it'll take some an improved scheme and personnel to overcome that.

[KGun12TD]

22 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

And forget that the much lower than expected salary cap changes things for ALL teams.. Staying the same is actually a GREAT thing if other teams regress! Especially for a 13-3 team. And as mentioned, it's not over, at all.

 

You couldn't be more right about this...We went 13-3 with all the flaws. We have great leadership across the board. Keeping this team intact at its core can only be a good thing.

[Inigo Montoya]

The Kansas City Chiefs have no offensive line right now.   I'm happy with where the Bills are sitting today. 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[BillsDude]

To the OP, at 12:00 Beane started working his tampering magic. You may not see it right now, but stay tuned! He likely has 10 phones in his Bills basement and they are all ringing off the hook, and each of his fingers picks up one, while he plays it cool balancing them all, sitting back in his recliner grinning and one by one telling each on the other end what it means to be Buffalo Bill, the financial terms required to be A Bill, and how he can help them succeed and be happy as a Buffalo Bill. Just wait and see, and assume our master magician is at work again This is far from over! Remember Beane never takes a minute off, much less than a day off. He works on Sundays too. He has a master plan, and will go step-by-step to achieve that.

[Heitz]

Yup, can’t see any reason to give this regime the benefit of the doubt on their strategy... 🙄