ColoradoBills Posted March 14, 2021 Posted March 14, 2021 (edited) OK, I'm snowed in at my house in the Colorado Rockies and I don't have anything better to do. I'm retired and I just got signed up for my first Covid shot Tuesday! A trip back to Buffalo is being Planned! I wanted to take a top overview (35,000 ft for you people that were stuck in those meetings like I was) of this years crazy FA. First off I truly enjoy looking through all things Spotrac and I found something interesting I want to share. I'm using their info and for anyone wanting to "tear into me" over this don't bother. I did what I did for myself. If you don't agree that's fine! If you got some thought out input I will edit my OP. Using todays available Cap for Free Agency (money available to the teams) and taking off a very reasonable amount of leeway. What I mean there is teams are NOT going to spend every penny available in FA I came up with a $ amount. Currently that is around $572M. That figure comes form $780M right now available minus $208M ($6.5M team average) in wiggle room. That would be money left over after FA for draft and some working space. So there is around $572M chasing FAs. Let's take off $100M ($3M or so from each team) for signing a few no name team depth type players. The Bills need to sign a type of guy like Bojo, Boettger, etc) All teams still typically need to. Now we are down to $472M. Now comes the crazy part. I added up the 85 or so players (minus a few that won't get signed for various reason ie OT Fisher) from the Spotrac FA list that have a "Market Value" attached to them. I'm using this as starting point as well as a lot of others do on this site.). That number is a whopping $817M. Now if you say that through signing deals these players take only a 2/3 (.67) 1st year hit of their average "Market Value" that still comes to $548M. Remember this is just the 85 players of the currently 769 Free Agents on the list. So the $472M in team money available for FA and just looking at the 85 "Market Value" players leaves a deficit of -$76M. What is further interesting is that all the recently released players (John Brown as an example) are not even figured in the "Market Value" on Spotrac! I reason this to be that things are moving way to quick right now and they are not going to do the calculation for these guys. As of right now there are 769 FAs on the Spotrac list and I was just talking about the top 85. That leaves another 684 FAs per Spotrac! I have NEVER seen a FA list this long in all my years of following Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/released/ My conclusion is what a lot of us have been thinking. There are way way too many Free Agents chasing way too few dollars! I just had to prove it to myself! I think there will be a frenzy to sign the marquee players and FAs targeted by teams with money but it wont last long until a good portion of the available FA $'s are eaten up and then the FUN will begin. All these numbers are fluid and a lot of things are happening but the basics still apply. I know Beane and his boys know this and I expect him to make us happy in the next week or so! FWIW and for anyone interested it took me only an hour or so to rough these numbers. I'm sure smart GMs and Player Agents have done the same. I expect a Free Agency period like none we have ever seen before and the Wizard is not going to let it pass. Think about the guys who have to sign cheap and where will they want to go. Buffalo will be on a lot of those lists. Then again I could be totally wrong but something tells me a Super Bowl run is coming THIS YEAR! Edited March 14, 2021 by ColoradoBills 1 2
Redneck Posted March 14, 2021 Posted March 14, 2021 Wow - very different analysis - love it! Could we take your math further and predict that McBeane will sign 3-5 strong contributors/starters and probably no marquee players? Maybe a new Feliciano?
whatdrought Posted March 14, 2021 Posted March 14, 2021 It’s a good year to be a bonafide contender with star power, primetime slating, and a culture that is admired and respected around the league. I expect several players on one year deals that will leave us asking “how did we do that?!” 2
ColoradoBills Posted March 14, 2021 Author Posted March 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Redneck said: Wow - very different analysis - love it! Could we take your math further and predict that McBeane will sign 3-5 strong contributors/starters and probably no marquee players? Maybe a new Feliciano? It seems to me that it's such a unique situation that Beane is not going to let it pass without doing nothing. I don't expect any BIG signing. They will go to the teams that can afford to pay those player top dollar. I do have hope that a couple of impactful players will get signed especially now that Buffalo is a "destination". Not many better places to take a 1 or 2 year contract till this blows over. 16 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I'm sure smart GMs and Player Agents have done the same I'm quoting myself to clarify. I do not think I got this down compared to GMs and Agents. I'm sure they got list broke down by position and with much more details than I do along with other teams suspected needs etc.
Redneck Posted March 14, 2021 Posted March 14, 2021 lol - I posted "A new Feliciano" and we got the original back! 1
Simon Says Posted March 14, 2021 Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Redneck said: Wow - very different analysis - love it! Could we take your math further and predict that McBeane will sign 3-5 strong contributors/starters and probably no marquee players? Maybe a new Feliciano? How? After signing Feliciano, Bills have enough to sign their draft picks. Have to do some serious restructuring
ColoradoBills Posted March 14, 2021 Author Posted March 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Georgie said: How? After signing Feliciano, Bills have enough to sign their draft picks. Have to do some serious restructuring Bills draft pick take $1.5M off the Top 51 Cap.
billsfan89 Posted March 14, 2021 Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, whatdrought said: It’s a good year to be a bonafide contender with star power, primetime slating, and a culture that is admired and respected around the league. I expect several players on one year deals that will leave us asking “how did we do that?!” I do expect one or two vet ring chasers, not major names but maybe a guy like Kyle Rudolph taking a one year deal. I think what is more likely to happen is teams retaining a lot of talent and signing a lot of talent by backloading deals. Tons of guys are going to have Matt Milano style deals with low cap numbers in year one.
ColoradoBills Posted March 14, 2021 Author Posted March 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: I do expect one or two vet ring chasers, not major names but maybe a guy like Kyle Rudolph taking a one year deal. I think what is more likely to happen is teams retaining a lot of talent and signing a lot of talent by backloading deals. Tons of guys are going to have Matt Milano style deals with low cap numbers in year one. I did try to address the first year cap hit in my numbers. But I think you are right about the 1 year contracts. I expect to see a lot of them at bargain prices. It would be a way for players to ride the storm out. A TE could garner a serious look by Beane especially a one year type deal. It would reduce the risk as to Knox's development or not.
Malazan Posted March 15, 2021 Posted March 15, 2021 7 hours ago, Redneck said: Maybe a new Feliciano? This new Feliciano is waaay better than the old Feliciano
strive_for_five_guy Posted March 16, 2021 Posted March 16, 2021 On 3/14/2021 at 4:42 PM, ColoradoBills said: OK, I'm snowed in at my house in the Colorado Rockies and I don't have anything better to do. I'm retired and I just got signed up for my first Covid shot Tuesday! A trip back to Buffalo is being Planned! I wanted to take a top overview (35,000 ft for you people that were stuck in those meetings like I was) of this years crazy FA. First off I truly enjoy looking through all things Spotrac and I found something interesting I want to share. I'm using their info and for anyone wanting to "tear into me" over this don't bother. I did what I did for myself. If you don't agree that's fine! If you got some thought out input I will edit my OP. Using todays available Cap for Free Agency (money available to the teams) and taking off a very reasonable amount of leeway. What I mean there is teams are NOT going to spend every penny available in FA I came up with a $ amount. Currently that is around $572M. That figure comes form $780M right now available minus $208M ($6.5M team average) in wiggle room. That would be money left over after FA for draft and some working space. So there is around $572M chasing FAs. Let's take off $100M ($3M or so from each team) for signing a few no name team depth type players. The Bills need to sign a type of guy like Bojo, Boettger, etc) All teams still typically need to. Now we are down to $472M. Now comes the crazy part. I added up the 85 or so players (minus a few that won't get signed for various reason ie OT Fisher) from the Spotrac FA list that have a "Market Value" attached to them. I'm using this as starting point as well as a lot of others do on this site.). That number is a whopping $817M. Now if you say that through signing deals these players take only a 2/3 (.67) 1st year hit of their average "Market Value" that still comes to $548M. Remember this is just the 85 players of the currently 769 Free Agents on the list. So the $472M in team money available for FA and just looking at the 85 "Market Value" players leaves a deficit of -$76M. What is further interesting is that all the recently released players (John Brown as an example) are not even figured in the "Market Value" on Spotrac! I reason this to be that things are moving way to quick right now and they are not going to do the calculation for these guys. As of right now there are 769 FAs on the Spotrac list and I was just talking about the top 85. That leaves another 684 FAs per Spotrac! I have NEVER seen a FA list this long in all my years of following Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/released/ My conclusion is what a lot of us have been thinking. There are way way too many Free Agents chasing way too few dollars! I just had to prove it to myself! I think there will be a frenzy to sign the marquee players and FAs targeted by teams with money but it wont last long until a good portion of the available FA $'s are eaten up and then the FUN will begin. All these numbers are fluid and a lot of things are happening but the basics still apply. I know Beane and his boys know this and I expect him to make us happy in the next week or so! FWIW and for anyone interested it took me only an hour or so to rough these numbers. I'm sure smart GMs and Player Agents have done the same. I expect a Free Agency period like none we have ever seen before and the Wizard is not going to let it pass. Think about the guys who have to sign cheap and where will they want to go. Buffalo will be on a lot of those lists. Then again I could be totally wrong but something tells me a Super Bowl run is coming THIS YEAR! Watching all these other teams pay big dollars today, really hoping your prediction plays out accordingly. Wild card might be some of these last minute cap restructures by teams, freeing up additional space to sign free agents? 1
ColoradoBills Posted March 19, 2021 Author Posted March 19, 2021 For anyone who cares. Initial Estimated Free Agent Money: $572M Current Estimated Free Agent Money (as of Noon March 19th): $234M (see NOTE) That comes out to about 60% of the FA $'s have already been spent. NOTE: This is Spotrac #'s which has a lot of players contracts confirmed but have not hit the books yet in the Team Salary Cap Space list. So the 60% spent is a lot higher but I don't have anything better to use! Initial Total Free Agents Available: 769 Spotrac Market Value Players: 85 Current Total Free Agents Available: 586 (Currently 181 Players have signed in FA). Current Spotrac Market Value Players: 37 still available. Shouldn't be too much longer before players/agents start to get a little desperate. I still have hope for Beane to do more.
Recommended Posts