Re-sign or wave good-bye series: player 9 Andre Roberts

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

This is pretty much where I am, although I'd say he's been excellent.  3rd in the league in year one and best in the league year two.  He provided the offense with some sweet starting field position.

 

He did provide the offense with some sweet starting field position.  But he also provided the offense with some crap starting field position with poor decisions about when to run kickoffs out of the endzone (see Colts WC game). He had some turnovers that put our D in very bad spots (2 fumbles lost this year) plus a muffed catch that fortunately went out of bounds.

 

I think when we signed him, we saw a fast WR who was perhaps underutilized in the passing game and could become a sweet WR depth.  But when the Bills gave him that opportunity to play WR, the results were...unpredictable (some good, some awful, some just not getting it done).

 

I'm honestly torn because I like Roberts, but this past year I honestly saw him as a mixed blessing.  He regularly ran out kickoffs where at best, he returned us to the touchback position or lost a few yards.  Of course then there were the times he earned us GREAT field position.  I guess it's an analytics thing to work out the net cost or benefit of that.

 

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But this is a business and I think they'd be best to invest in other areas.  I'd hate to see him go, but it probably makes sense in the big picture.

 

It's tough. 

 

The Bills have a bunch of FA that would add value if re-signed:

Andre Roberts

Isaiah McKenzie

Taiwan Jones

Corey Bojorquez

Ike Boettger

Jon Feliciano

Matt Barkley

 

They have an estimated $8.9-ish M in cap, of which they need to have some amount free as "rookie pool" for signing their draft class - guessing about $3M given where the Bills are drafting.  They can cut Lee Smith for another $2.25M.

 

I'm guessing they have enough money to maybe sign 3 or 4 out of the 7 guys listed above.

Or their replacements

[Buddo]

Hard to know for sure the FO thinking on this one, but if they make him an offer, I think it's the only offer they make - non negotiable.

 

Overall, he's been a good returner for us, but I don't think he adds anything as a WR, when the hope was that he could.

 

I'd class his roster spot currently, as a 'luxury position', and in another year I'm sure the Bills would have tried to maybe work something out. Going forward, we need to get more play from whoever we have returning, simply because in this cap strapped year, the value isn't there for a guy whose sole contributions will be returning.

 

TBH, if it's a choice between say Roberts and McKenzie who gets an offer, then I'd go McKenzie every time, as he contributes offensively, while also having return ability.

[ghostwriter]

I would offer him a contract with zero guaranteed. If we are able to draft a better option, cut him and if we can’t, let him return kicks for another year.

[Spiderweb]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

As long as we have someone on the team who can return punts, I think he’s a luxury we can’t afford 

Sure hands, very good return man for punts and kickoffs. Plus can play WR in a pinch? He's someone we CAN afford. Or shall we return to the days of the punt catcher?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I chose good bye, but not quite that simple.  Bills need to find someone who can be return man, but also contribute other places.  Maybe like a McKenzie as can be both a WR and returner. 

 

The Bills seem to have too many high priced guys who only play ST for the most part, Roberts, The LB (not going to try and spell his name) T Jones.  I wonder if the team may view Gilliam as Jones replacement and also can play on the filed more as FB/TE

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

WR Andre Roberts is a UFA. Age 33, he was an all-pro KR/PR in both season with the Bills.

 

 

So he was a 2nd team all-Pro

 

Salary last season $1.3M

 

Veteran minimum for a 10+ yr veteran ~$1.06M (I think)

 

Could potentially be signed under a "Veteran Salary Benefit" provision if he takes a low signing bonus/other comp of less than $137,500.  That means the Bills could pay him vet minimum but have it count as $.875M under the cap

 

Question is does another team want him for more?  Do the Bills want him for more?

 

[Inigo Montoya]

Having a dedicated kick return specialist is a luxury in the NFL today.  Admittedly, Roberts doesn't add much on offense, but his sure handedness fielding the ball and his ability to get tough yardage is a huge benefit to the offense.  The single biggest statistical predictor of whether an offense scores on a drive is the drive's starting field position.  A big part of the Bills' offensive success last season was due to solid special teams play and good starting field position.  I hope Beane can find a way to bring Roberts back this year.  I was able to find some stats to support Robert's value to the Bills.  I know that returning kicks and punts is a team effort and you need good blocking as well, but I believe the returner is responsible for the lion's share of how effective a return is going to be. 

 

The first link below is an article that fleshes out starting field position for kick offs and punts, and as we would expect from watching the Bills last year, the Bills are near the top of both statistics.  The Bills are second in starting field position after kickoffs, and in the top ten on punts. When you combine the two it looks like the Bills have the top return game in the league.

 

Most teams have different returners for kick offs and punts, but on the Bills Roberts does both, and he does it very well.  He seems to have a knack for when to bring the ball out of the end zone and when to take a knee.  He sparked our offense several times last season cranking out a big return to get some momentum back and flip the field for the Bills' offense.  Roberts also is decisive on punts and fields the ball and starts bolting straight up the field.  He doesn't dance around after he catches the ball like a lot of returners do giving up valuable seconds that allow the coverage teams to converge.

 

The second link below has stats on average length of kickoff returns and the Bills lead the NFL with an average kick off return of 27.64 yards.  The third link below has the same stats for punt returns, and on punts Andre Roberts is ranked 7th in the NFL by average yards per return.

 

It seems that Roberts is on the bubble again, a familiar situation for him as he was let go by the Jets the same year he was a Pro-Bowl returner.  I'd hate for the same thing to happen again this year.  I know there is only so much money to go around, and if it weren't for the COVID salary cap situation we wouldn't be having this conversation, but I hope Beane can find the money to bring him back.  McKenzie had a return touchdown and might be able to slide into the role, but he's not under contract at this point either.  Roberts is a difference maker for this team and it would be a shame if we have to let him walk.  It would be even worse if we cut him loose and he lands somewhere else in the AFCE.

 

https://thecommutesports.com/2020/10/27/nfl-starting-field-position/

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=KR&yr=2020&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=KR&yr=2020&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

 

Edited March 13, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

I don't know the details with his contract, but I would imagine it couldn't be but so bad. Anyway I would definitely try to keep him if it's manageable..A serious threat on ST and very reliable catching P and KO and doesn't put the ball on the ground hardly ever.

 

He's a FA.  He has no contract.

[Charles Romes]

Isaiah really became more dependable and sure handed last year, has an extra gear and is far more productive and versatile on offense. If Isaiah can be re-signed you fill the Isaiah and Roberts roster spots with one player. 

[NeverOutNick]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why?

He has a habit of trying to do too much and it costing the team in field position or even turnover. He takes it out of the end zone more frequently than he should and doesn’t get to the 25 when he does. He used to be a very good return man but his time has passed. Let the young gun get his chance. McKenzie is more explosive and I trust the coaching staff to instill discipline so he knows when he should and shouldn’t take it out of the end zone

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Having a dedicated kick return specialist is a luxury in the NFL today.  Admittedly, Roberts doesn't add much on offense, but his sure handedness fielding the ball and his ability to get tough yardage is a huge benefit to the offense.  The single biggest statistical predictor of whether an offense scores on a drive is the drive's starting field position.  A big part of the Bills' offensive success last season was due to solid special teams play and good starting field position.  I hope Beane can find a way to bring Roberts back this year.  I was able to find some stats to support Robert's value to the Bills.  I know that returning kicks and punts is a team effort and you need good blocking as well, but I believe the returner is responsible for the lion's share of how effective a return is going to be. 

 

The first link below is an article that fleshes out starting field position for kick offs and punts, and as we would expect from watching the Bills last year, the Bills are near the top of both statistics.  When they combine the two, kickoffs and punts, only the Chiefs have a better average starting field position than the Bills.  Surprisingly, the Jets are very near the top too.

 

Most teams have different returners for kick offs and punts, but on the Bills Roberts does both, and he does it very well.  He seems to have a knack for when to bring the ball out of the end zone and when to take a knee.  He sparked our offense several times last season cranking out a big return to get some momentum back and flip the field for the Bills' offense.  Roberts also is decisive on punts and fields the ball and starts bolting straight up the field.  He doesn't dance around after he catches the ball like a lot of returners do giving up valuable seconds that allow the coverage teams to converge.

 

The second link below has stats on average length of kickoff returns and the Bills lead the NFL with an average kick off return of 27.64 yards.  The third link below has the same stats for punt returns, and on punts Andre Roberts is ranked 7th in the NFL by average yards per return.

 

It seems that Roberts is on the bubble again, a familiar situation for him as he was let go by the Jets the same year he was a Pro-Bowl returner.  I'd hate for the same thing to happen again this year.  I know there is only so much money to go around, and if it weren't for the COVID salary cap situation we wouldn't be having this conversation, but I hope Beane can find the money to bring him back.  McKenzie had a return touchdown and might be able to slide into the role, but he's not under contract at this point either.  Roberts is a difference maker for this team and it would be a shame if we have to let him walk.  It would be even worse if we cut him loose and he lands somewhere else in the AFCE.

 

https://thecommutesports.com/2020/10/27/nfl-starting-field-position/

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=KR&yr=2020&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=KR&yr=2020&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

 

 

So, based on data, the Bills are benefiting from having Roberts on the team:

 

 

Thanks for the links.  It's been my perception that he makes poor decisions sometimes about when to bring a ball out, but apparently overall, he gains us more than he costs us.

[Inigo Montoya]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So, based on data, the Bills are benefiting from having Roberts on the team:

 

 

Thanks for the links.  It's been my perception that he makes poor decisions sometimes about when to bring a ball out, but apparently overall, he gains us more than he costs us.

 

Occasionally he will get stuck bringing one out, and we all remember the Indianapolis Wild Card game where our average starting field position was actually in the stadium tunnel behind the end zone, but I thought that most of the season he seemed to make good calls on when to bring it out.  I know it's a money game, but I hope Beane can find some money under a couch cushion somewhere to bring back Roberts and BoJo.  We enjoyed really solid special teams play this past year and I think sometimes it gets taken for granted.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Occasionally he will get stuck bringing one out, and we all remember the Indianapolis Wild Card game where our average starting field position was actually in the stadium tunnel behind the end zone, but I thought that most of the season he seemed to make good calls on when to bring it out.  I know it's a money game, but I hope Beane can find some money under a couch cushion somewhere to bring back Roberts and BoJo.  We enjoyed really solid special teams play this past year and I think sometimes it gets taken for granted.

 

I think what we've seen is that Mr Beane aka "Big Baller Bean" is very talented in searching under the couch cushions.

 

It's just a matter of what priority he assigns to it and what he thinks we can get in the draft. 

 

IMHO the highest unmet priorities are pass rusher and TE at this point, but CB #2 is up there.

 

He probably has about $6M he can use right now to distribute among our remaining FA signees, with the option to cut Lee Smith (if he doesn't retire) and make it ~$8M.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He's a FA.  He has no contract.

Meant I wouldn't think it would be too expensive to keep him assuming if it's similar to contract he had. That's the contract I meant.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[billsfan89]

I don’t know why people wouldn’t want him resigned. Don’t need to over pay but you certainly shouldn’t just let him walk. A bad kick returner can cost you games. Give me a steady hand back there any time over taking a chance on a rookie. 

[Locomark]

Roberts is a one trick pony at the end of his career that offers zero value as a receiver. McKenzie seems to be improving at both receiver and returner and I think he is gaining experience from Cole and Diggs on route running. 5 TDs last year show he is valuable. Bring him back and if you also draft someone with that talent, great. 

[machine gun kelly]

Well, on the Roberts side, on avg. we were 1st in kick returns and 4th in punt returns.  On McKenzies side, he just adds so much not only in returning, but in the offense in gadget plays, backup WR, and even without practicing (I guess) filled in as a CB.  My vote is McKenzie.  If you go by veteran minimums, you save around $240k by signing McKenzie over Roberts, but it’s really the impact McKenzie can have on offense in addition to returns I’m leaning that way.

 

In a normal cap year, keep both.  This year, no.

[bmur66]

It totally depends on who we need to let go in order to keep him. Dude is quietly rock solid in the return game. That is it though. McKenzie over him for sure if that’s what it comes down to.

Edited March 14, 2021 by bmur66

[MrEpsYtown]

He should be back. He is very efficient, though not very explosive, he doesn’t make any mistakes and creates positive gains in the field position game. If you feel like you want to move on, go watch some video of Leodis McKelvin. 

[Mr. WEO]

Overall, Bills would have been better off with taking touchbacks on every kickoff.