Round 1 Updated Mock Draft - Last Stab At It Before The Draft (Page 4)

[custcarcen]

30. Buffalo Bills - Caleb Farley / CB / Virginia Tech  - The way the board played out allowed Farley to fall right into our lap. To have Farley opposite Tre would be outstanding and possibly give us the best Secondary in the league. I thought long and hard about taking Moehrig here as he epitomizes "Process" and is an excellent player in his own right, but a legit #1b (notice I said 1b, not #2) CB is too good to pass up. *** Previously Teven Jenkins ***

 

I have been thinking more and more that Farley is going to drop and that he's a good investment at #30.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

They are actually in great position to take a corner. The hit rate on corners taken in the late first has been very high going back several years. After this season they will have a total of 2 corners under contract - Tre white and Dane Jackson. It truly is a need. 

But who are the corners and how certain can you be that they are good prospects?  Samuel is a good prospect with low-end size that may limit him to slot - similar thoughts on Mouldin, the two Georgia CBs have great tools, but limited film and production.  Talk me into a great CB pick at 30 - I want to believe.

[YoloinOhio]

40 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But who are the corners and how certain can you be that they are good prospects?  Samuel is a good prospect with low-end size that may limit him to slot - similar thoughts on Mouldin, the two Georgia CBs have great tools, but limited film and production.  Talk me into a great CB pick at 30 - I want to believe.

Who are the corners? Yikes I don’t have the energy to re-create the wheel here 😂. Just pull up the big boards and scouting reports online.

[OldTimer1960]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Who are the corners? Yikes I don’t have the energy to re-create the wheel here 😂. Just pull up the big boards and scouting reports online.

Didn’t need a condescending response, was looking for your opinion.  I can and have read a lot for the last 30+ years of drafts.

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Didn’t need a condescending response, was looking for your opinion.  I can and have read a lot for the last 30+ years of drafts.

I was not trying to be condescending, I literally would be like copying and pasting from scouting reports - I’m not a scout and don’t watch film. I mostly only watch the Big ten tbh. I’ve seen some ACC games.

Edited April 13, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[Coach Tuesday]

Good stuff.  Really hard to do a mock so I’m always impressed with the thought that goes into it.

 

My Tuesday morning coaching:

 

I’m not buying Mac Jones to SF.  I cannot fathom them trading up that high for a fringe first round prospect with no elite traits.  The pick HAS to be fields or lance.

 

Pitts likely goes top 5 and no way makes it past Miami or Detroit.

 

Ossai is a round 2-3 prospect IMO.

 

I still think Chase to Cindy, Smith to Miami.  And Smith is the better prospect, don’t care about his weight. He’s Gold Jacket-level good.

 

I think Toney falls out of Round 1.  Production and speed just aren’t there and you at least need one.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, H2o said:

30. Buffalo Bills - Caleb Farley / CB / Virginia Tech  - The way the board played out allowed Farley to fall right into our lap. To have Farley opposite Tre would be outstanding and possibly give us the best Secondary in the league. I thought long and hard about taking Moehrig here as he epitomizes "Process" and is an excellent player in his own right, but a legit #1b (notice I said 1b, not #2) CB is too good to pass up.

 

I've seen a lot of discussion on this possibility lately, but I feel like Farley to the Bills is a catch 22. If he's available at 30, that's because the medicals didn't check out with other teams that pick before us. And nothing about this regime indicates they take medical risks in the draft. So I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Farley falls to us and also we pick him. If he's medically cleared he won't make it anywhere close to us. Farley to the Bills is a dream scenario to me but I can't foresee it.

[BuffaloRebound]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've seen a lot of discussion on this possibility lately, but I feel like Farley to the Bills is a catch 22. If he's available at 30, that's because the medicals didn't check out with other teams that pick before us. And nothing about this regime indicates they take medical risks in the draft. So I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Farley falls to us and also we pick him. If he's medically cleared he won't make it anywhere close to us. Farley to the Bills is a dream scenario to me but I can't foresee it.

The whole draft this year is a catch 22.  Opt-outs, lack of scouts on campus, shortened seasons, cancelled games.  A crazy year all around, making a hard task of projecting these guys that much harder.  Probably better to trade back from 30 and get more bites at the apple because the miss rate is gonna be higher across the board this year.  

[glazeduck]

4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But who are the corners and how certain can you be that they are good prospects?  Samuel is a good prospect with low-end size that may limit him to slot - similar thoughts on Mouldin, the two Georgia CBs have great tools, but limited film and production.  Talk me into a great CB pick at 30 - I want to believe.

Barring the obvious names at the very top, the only cb that would represent good value at 30 is Newsome. Melifonwu, purely from a “package” standpoint would probably be the guy after that (still pretty raw though). Molden is a nickel guy, pretty much exclusively, and with limited upside. Samuel would be *okay* value in the 3rd but even then he’d be underwhelming to me. To me, neither offer much, are very exciting prospects or feel like especially good fits for us. 
 

There’s a big grouping of cbs in the mid-2nd to mid/late 3rd that would be looking at: Meli, Campbell, Adebo, Trill Williams, Kelvin Joseph, Stokes, Aaron Robinson, St. Juste, Marco Wilson, Shaun Wade, Mukuamu... If we end up drafting a cb, my guess is it’s in this range and very likely one of those guys.

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I was not trying to be condescending, I literally would be like copying and pasting from scouting reports - I’m not a scout and don’t watch film. I mostly only watch the Big ten tbh. I’ve seen some ACC games.

Thanks, I shouldn’t have been annoyed with the response.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good stuff.  Really hard to do a mock so I’m always impressed with the thought that goes into it.

 

My Tuesday morning coaching:

 

I’m not buying Mac Jones to SF.  I cannot fathom them trading up that high for a fringe first round prospect with no elite traits.  The pick HAS to be fields or lance.

 

I 100% agree. The 49ers are happy for everyone to think it is Mac but they are picking Fields or Lance. I still lean towards Fields for scheme fit reasons. 

 

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Pitts likely goes top 5 and no way makes it past Miami or Detroit.

 

I think 6 is his floor. I think Miami would run to the podium if he was there. Atlanta could pick him at #4 but for me they should either go Quarterback or trade out and improve their awful defense (which as of right now is on paper the worst in the entire league). Cincy could pick him or Chase or Sewell. I am on record as to what I think they should do, but they are the Bengals. Miami if they pick at 6 and Pitts is there.... I think he is the pick.

 

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Ossai is a round 2-3 prospect IMO.

 

I am higher on him. I think he is a project but I think the talent is there. 

 

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I think Toney falls out of Round 1.  Production and speed just aren’t there and you at least need one.

 

I think this too. I am not as concerned about the speed, I think he is fast enough but when you start looking at where teams might go in the backend of the first round there are not a lot of obvious wide receiver fits. Green Bay or New Orleans could go there, but they have lots of other needs too. Baltimore is the obvious one but Toney isn't really a fit there. I could, potentially, see the Bears at #20 having an interest but if they ultimately pass then I think Toney is likely an early day 2 player. 

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Was interesting to listen to an analysis of Farley’s injuries today on the LockedOn Bills podcast. Joe had his doctor of physical therapy on to explain Farley’s injury history and how similar injuries have impacted careers. At the end of the podcast I was left thinking if Beane and the medical staff clears him, I’m all for it. I just don’t think he makes it to the Bills. I think Stokes out of UGA would be an awesome option. 

 

Not high on Stokes in round 1. Don't even think he was the best corner on his own team. On Farley I suspect you are right.... either the medical is favourable and he doesn't last until the Bills or it is not and he slides out of the first altogether. Because teams can't get these guys in the building this year and get their own doctors to do any additional checks every team is going off a single medical report. sure, there might be teams who are more risk averse than others but if 29 teams have passed on Farley then the medical is likely so worrying that the Bills pass too. 

[H2o]

10 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good stuff.  Really hard to do a mock so I’m always impressed with the thought that goes into it.

 

My Tuesday morning coaching:

 

I’m not buying Mac Jones to SF.  I cannot fathom them trading up that high for a fringe first round prospect with no elite traits.  The pick HAS to be fields or lance.

 

Pitts likely goes top 5 and no way makes it past Miami or Detroit.

 

Ossai is a round 2-3 prospect IMO.

 

I still think Chase to Cindy, Smith to Miami.  And Smith is the better prospect, don’t care about his weight. He’s Gold Jacket-level good.

 

I think Toney falls out of Round 1.  Production and speed just aren’t there and you at least need one.

Yeah, this year is tough with all of the circumstances surrounding the college season and the lack of an actual Combine. It's definitely why you have seen so many off the charts 40 times.

 

I'm not completely sold on Mac Jones to San Fran either, but I do believe he absolutely fits the Cousins/Ryan mold of a Shanahan QB that he gets the most out of. I, personally, think Fields should be the 3rd QB off the board with Lance the 4th and Jones the 5th. But what do I know, really? 

 

Pitts is a wild card in this draft. He could go anywhere from 4th to 11th imo. I love the guy's talent and think he will be elite wherever he goes. The question is who do you pass on to take him that could be elite at an actual position of need for the teams making the pick in his stead? 

 

With Ossai going to Baltimore, I see him being a perfect fit for what they do. He has explosiveness off of the edge, an excellent closing burst, good size at 6'4" 256lbs, ran a 40 time in the 4.4 range, a 41" vert at almost 260lbs, a 10'1" broad jump, and has the ability to drop into the flats or short areas in Zone coverage. He just feels like a Baltimore scheme fit to me. 

 

Tennessee was hard, but I think they take a WR in Round 1 with the signing of Bud Dupree to give them some juice off of the edge. Whether that's Toney, Bateman, or Marshall? Idk. I gave them Toney because of the versatility to contribute on offense and in the return game since they cut Adoree as well. But as you say, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up a Day 2 guy. 

 

I really like DeVonta as well. He reminds me of Diggs watching him run his routes and with the football in his hands. I just think that teams go for Chase and Waddle first. If Waddle doesn't get hurt then Smith doesn't win the Heisman. 

[No_Matter_What]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not high on Stokes in round 1. Don't even think he was the best corner on his own team. On Farley I suspect you are right.... either the medical is favourable and he doesn't last until the Bills or it is not and he slides out of the first altogether. Because teams can't get these guys in the building this year and get their own doctors to do any additional checks every team is going off a single medical report. sure, there might be teams who are more risk averse than others but if 29 teams have passed on Farley then the medical is likely so worrying that the Bills pass too. 

Yeah but the slide needs to end somewhere when a team decides that potential value is too big to pass. Jaylon Smith went 34. and he was considered top 5 pick before injury. Reuben Foster went 27 with huge red flags (which materialized pretty quickly).

 

But I do agree with you and @HappyDays that it is like Catch XXII. But with every player like this there is a turning point and it might be our pick. If there is 70% chance that he is fine and plays like top 10 pick and 30% chance that we will not play a down in the NFL I'd pull the trigger on 30.

[H2o]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've seen a lot of discussion on this possibility lately, but I feel like Farley to the Bills is a catch 22. If he's available at 30, that's because the medicals didn't check out with other teams that pick before us. And nothing about this regime indicates they take medical risks in the draft. So I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Farley falls to us and also we pick him. If he's medically cleared he won't make it anywhere close to us. Farley to the Bills is a dream scenario to me but I can't foresee it.

From all the reports I've seen he has gotten good feedback from the doctors about his surgery, that it's not chronic and shouldn't be a problem moving forward. It is sort of a Pipe Dream that he lasts until #30 though as he likely wouldn't make it past Tennessee with them having cut both Butler and Jackson. If he does though, I wouldn't really hesitate to draft him. He was fantastic in 2019. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Yeah but the slide needs to end somewhere when a team decides that potential value is too big to pass. Jaylon Smith went 34. and he was considered top 5 pick before injury. Reuben Foster went 27 with huge red flags (which materialized pretty quickly).

 

But I do agree with you and @HappyDays that it is like Catch XXII. But with every player like this there is a turning point and it might be our pick. If there is 70% chance that he is fine and plays like top 10 pick and 30% chance that we will not play a down in the NFL I'd pull the trigger on 30.

 

The difference is in those years teams could have their own doctors look at these guys. This year they have a single medical report. Every team has EXACTLY the same info. Yes, risk appetite is different, but if it is bad enough that 29 teams have passed it is not like the Bills know something those others don't. It would just mean they are radically more willing to take the risk. Agree at some point the slide will end.... because someone will decide the value is too great to pass on. I guess I'd just be surprised if that was at #30 if 29 teams have passed..... although, the Bills and Chiefs down there with pretty complete rosters but corner spots that could be upgraded maybe feel safer taking the risk than say Arizona at #16 who need a contributor. 

[Coach Tuesday]

36 minutes ago, H2o said:

I really like DeVonta as well. He reminds me of Diggs watching him run his routes and with the football in his hands. I just think that teams go for Chase and Waddle first. If Waddle doesn't get hurt then Smith doesn't win the Heisman. 

 

FWIW, Football Outsiders has Devonta as the highest WR prospect by far, and one of the top WR prospects they've ever charted.  They're not very high on Waddle.  (ESPN+ paywall/subscription required etc.).

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not high on Stokes in round 1. Don't even think he was the best corner on his own team. On Farley I suspect you are right.... either the medical is favourable and he doesn't last until the Bills or it is not and he slides out of the first altogether. Because teams can't get these guys in the building this year and get their own doctors to do any additional checks every team is going off a single medical report. sure, there might be teams who are more risk averse than others but if 29 teams have passed on Farley then the medical is likely so worrying that the Bills pass too. 

I think Stokes is going to be the player a lot of teams wish they had picked. Watched a ton of UGA and he is the best corner on the Dawgs for me. 

[Coach Tuesday]

On 4/13/2021 at 8:24 AM, H2o said:

Yeah, this year is tough with all of the circumstances surrounding the college season and the lack of an actual Combine. It's definitely why you have seen so many off the charts 40 times.

 

I'm not completely sold on Mac Jones to San Fran either, but I do believe he absolutely fits the Cousins/Ryan mold of a Shanahan QB that he gets the most out of. I, personally, think Fields should be the 3rd QB off the board with Lance the 4th and Jones the 5th. But what do I know, really? 

Here is Football Outsiders’ analysis of Jones, and I agree.  Their conclusion:

 

“With that in mind, there should be no way the 49ers (or any other team) burn a top-five pick on Jones. Draft picks in that range should be for players who have a franchise-changing potential rather than players who can just be solid starters, which is especially true for quarterbacks. Jones is more along the lines of a second-round talent who could get a value bump into the mid-/late first round by virtue of being a quarterback.”

 

I’ll say it again: smokescreen.  The pick will be Lance or Fields.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[YoloinOhio]

32 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Here is Football Outsiders’ analysis of Jones, and I agree.  Their conclusion:

 

“With that in mind, there should be no way the 49ers (or any other team) burn a top-five pick on Jones. Draft picks in that range should be for players who have a franchise-changing potential rather than players who can just be solid starters, which is especially true for quarterbacks. Jones is more along the lines of a second-round talent who could get a value bump into the mid-/late first round by virtue of being a quarterback.”

 

I’ll say it again: smokescreen.  The pick will be Lance or Fields.

Every draft analyst/film guy  I’ve listened to has said this same thing. It just makes no sense that they would invest 3 first rounders in Jones. The fact that the national media guys like Schefter and kiper keep parrotting it tells me it won’t happen. Someone is purposely feeding it to them. Just like someone told mort to go on tv last night and talk about how Justin fields played baseball so that hurt his mechanics 🤣. This pre draft media stuff is hilarious. 

Edited April 14, 2021 by YoloinOhio