Star L. possible cut?

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, TPS said:

This issue has been bothering me since our discussion.  It's my understanding that making him a post-June cut would mean they are only on the hook this year for his guaranteed money and one year of the prorated bonus, pushing the remaining two years into next year's dead cap.  I checked out "over the cap", and they show his cap hit as I was figuring.  Designating him a June 1 cut, gives them $500K cap saving, with $7.1 mil dead cap this year and $5.2 mil next year:

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

I assum this is the correct reading of it.  Again, I'm not 100%, but I thought that's how it worked.

That’s odd.  I’m going by Spotrac’s numbers, which look different.  OTC doesn’t really break out the numbers for cuts quite as neatly but I don’t think they are the same anyway. I am going to do the math from scratch and post that.  You can click the red X at the right under the 2021 financials to see what I’m seeing:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/star-lotulelei-12294/

[Fan in Chicago]

I havent read the entire thread and am not a capologist - How does the impact on our cap change if he is traded (assuming for a moment that we do find a willing trade partner)? Maybe throw in a 6th or 7th rounder along with him to sweeten the pot. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Hapless, of course you're right that nobody can legally require vaccinations.

 

But that doesn't mean that if a player decides not to get the vaccination the NFL should still be required to give them the ability to opt out. That's a very questionable thought.

 

I don't know what will happen with optouts. Duh. But if the vaccine is widely available well before the season, that will likely take a great deal of pressure off the NFL in terms of providing the option to opt out.

 

Just to be clear, vaccinations with licensed vaccines can be legally required by an employer in certain circumstances.  Vaccinations approved under EUA (emergency use authorization) cannot be required by an employer.  Therefore the NFL can not legally require players to be vaccinated since no current covid-19 vaccines are licensed, they are all approved under emergency use authorization. 

 

I don't know if it's a "questionable" thought or not, but it's "up to" the NFL and NFLPA what they will collectively bargain.  If the NFL pushes for no opt out option, and a player with a risk condition (vaccinated or not) gets seriously ill it would be very bad optics I would think, and the NFL seems to be an "optics" driven outfit.

 

Just my opinion.  Perhaps you are right and there will not be an opt-out.

[TheFunPolice]

What if Star is thinking of retiring, but the team asks him to opt out this year instead, making his cap hit almost nothing this season and absorbing the acceleration next season once the cap goes up?

 

If it's a deal between teams and players this time around, as opposed to a flat rate, then the Bills could say "take an extra 500,00 or 750,000 and wait a year to call it a career."

 

Everyone wins. His cap hit drops to almost nothing, and he gets to pocket some extra cash that he would not see if he retires now. 

Edited March 12, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[BarleyNY]

@TPS I’ll give this my best shot.  Good god, OTC and Spotrac don’t even have the same contract details which is making this even tougher.  So I worked them out individually. 
 

OTC: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M this season and $1.15M next.  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each.  That means a post 6/1/21 cut would cause cap hits of $7.1M (4.5+2.6) in 2021 and $6.35M (1.15+2.6+2.6) in 2022.  Indeed that’s a $500k savings this season.  $13.45M in total dead money is pretty brutal though. 
 

Spotrac: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M (same) this season and $2.5M next (different).  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each(same).  So the numbers will work out the same except that there would be $1.35M more dead money in 2022 ($7.7M) and total dead money would be $14.8M.

 

Spotrac’s calculations are off.  I see why but I won’t bore you with it.  Probably a spreadsheet mistake.  OTC doesn’t do a good job of showing dead money beyond 2021 either.  The future guaranteed salary is wonky too.  It’s hit usually accelerates to the present season with a release, but post 6/1 it would be in the following season I believe.  I think I worked this all through properly, but fire away any questions or if you spot a mistake. 

35 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I havent read the entire thread and am not a capologist - How does the impact on our cap change if he is traded (assuming for a moment that we do find a willing trade partner)? Maybe throw in a 6th or 7th rounder along with him to sweeten the pot. 

Guaranteed salary would be the new team’s responsibility.  We’d have a $7.8M cap hit (dead money) if we traded him.  That’s $200k more than what it would be if he’s on the roster this season.  But that would close the book on him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I havent read the entire thread and am not a capologist - How does the impact on our cap change if he is traded (assuming for a moment that we do find a willing trade partner)? Maybe throw in a 6th or 7th rounder along with him to sweeten the pot. 

 

Trading Star, as far as I can tell, would be cap-neutral.  $7.8M cap hit if traded, $7.6M cap hit at present.

The trade partner would pick up $4.5M in salary and $0.5M in likely-to-be-achieved bonuses.

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

19 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

What if Star is thinking of retiring, but the team asks him to opt out this year instead, making his cap hit almost nothing this season and absorbing the acceleration next season once the cap goes up?

 

If it's a deal between teams and players this time around, as opposed to a flat rate, then the Bills could say "take an extra 500,00 or 750,000 and wait a year to call it a career."

 

Everyone wins. His cap hit drops to almost nothing, and he gets to pocket some extra cash that he would not see if he retires now. 

 

As far as I know, if Star retires, his guaranteed salary becomes void and the Bills can ask him to repay $7.8M of roster bonuses.

Which is why most players under contract with guaranteed money and amortized signing bonuses won't retire (see Wood, Eric)

[TPS]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

@TPS I’ll give this my best shot.  Good god, OTC and Spotrac don’t even have the same contract details which is making this even tougher.  So I worked them out individually. 
 

OTC: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M this season and $1.15M next.  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each.  That means a post 6/1/21 cut would cause cap hits of $7.1M (4.5+2.6) in 2021 and $6.35M (1.15+2.6+2.6) in 2022.  Indeed that’s a $500k savings this season.  $13.45M in total dead money is pretty brutal though. 
 

Spotrac: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M (same) this season and $2.5M next (different).  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each(same).  So the numbers will work out the same except that there would be $1.35M more dead money in 2022 ($7.7M) and total dead money would be $14.8M.

 

Spotrac’s calculations are off.  I see why but I won’t bore you with it.  Probably a spreadsheet mistake.  OTC doesn’t do a good job of showing dead money beyond 2021 either.  The future guaranteed salary is wonky too.  It’s hit usually accelerates to the present season with a release, but post 6/1 it would be in the following season I believe.  I think I worked this all through properly, but fire away any questions or if you spot a mistake. 

Guaranteed salary would be the new team’s responsibility.  We’d have a $7.8M cap hit (dead money) if we traded him.  That’s $200k more than what it would be if he’s on the roster this season.  But that would close the book on him.

I think you have it right.  I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations?  My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following.

 

Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought.   Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star.  This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt....

 

While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a hole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

Ps. Thanks for doing that.

Edited March 12, 2021 by TPS

[Fan in Chicago]

25 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Guaranteed salary would be the new team’s responsibility.  We’d have a $7.8M cap hit (dead money) if we traded him.  That’s $200k more than what it would be if he’s on the roster this season.  But that would close the book on him.

Thanks. So it will be a one-time hit this year. But the cap hit is pretty large

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Trading Star, as far as I can tell, would be cap-neutral.  $7.8M cap hit if traded, $7.6M cap hit at present.

The trade partner would pick up $4.5M in salary and $0.5M in likely-to-be-achieved bonuses.

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

Thanks, Hopeful

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, TPS said:

I think you have it right.  I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations?  My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following.

 

Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought.   Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star.  This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt....

 

While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a whole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

This is just my opinion, but if they're keeping Butler because they're worried about Star showing up at camp and on the field in good form, that's a mistake.

I felt Butler showed neither enthusiasm nor prowess at the 1TDT last season. 

 

As best as I could tell, last year the Bills adopted a system of "be nice and play 1TDT and we'll give you a 3TDT rotation" sort of like "eat your spinach and we'll give you a piece of chocolate cake".  It worked - kinda.

 

The Bills really signed Butler to be their Jordan Phillips replacement at 3TDT and it's probably still where he's best utilized.

 

[TPS]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is just my opinion, but if they're keeping Butler because they're worried about Star showing up at camp and on the field in good form, that's a mistake.

I felt Butler showed neither enthusiasm nor prowess at the 1TDT last season. 

 

As best as I could tell, last year the Bills adopted a system of "be nice and play 1TDT and we'll give you a 3TDT rotation" sort of like "eat your spinach and we'll give you a piece of chocolate cake".  It worked - kinda.

 

The Bills really signed Butler to be their Jordan Phillips replacement at 3TDT and it's probably still where he's best utilized.

 

Yes, and my thought is just a hunch based on the rumor that started this thread, so take it with slightly more than a grain, just slightly.... 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I retired in my 50’s and I can see why many players say they will really miss the locker room and the guys. I guess it depends upon how much you like your work. I loved mine, but it wasn’t really transferable when we moved. 

 

For Star a lot will depend upon how he’s managed his body and conditioning during his year off. Did I read he dropped a bunch of weight? 

 

I loved mine too until the company got sold and the culture totally changed.  You definitely got to put the effort in to keep in touch with people!

 

As to Star, I can't find anything current about the weight loss thing.  It might have been on twitter.

I think anything could happen concerning his future.  I have no hard evidence but I do remember talk (rumors) 2 years ago or so about

him maybe losing his passion for football and wanting to get more involved with his church.  I want to stress that it was a rumor but

I remember making a mental note of it at the time.

 

When it's all said and done I think he plays one more year and I hope he kept himself in shape.

[TheFunPolice]

Star dropping a bunch of weight makes him useless to the defense, sadly. 

 

What he should have been doing this year is putting in the work in the dining room to be the biggest, best version of his 1DT self. 

 

Luckily, our future big DT (which is something Beane and McDermott obviously want in their defense) is named Slayton and he's in this draft coming up! There's a couple of giant DT's actually, that would make sense as mid-round picks to get a young giant guy in the system for cheap to play that role. 

Edited March 12, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Star dropping a bunch of weight makes him useless to the defense, sadly.

 

It's been asked of others who have said this:

-what is the source of the rumor that Star has dropped weight and has it been verified?

 

I haven't received an answer yet.  Thanks.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

As to Star, I can't find anything current about the weight loss thing.  It might have been on twitter.

 

I can't find it on Twitter either, but their search engine isn't the greatest so....

 

Quote

I think anything could happen concerning his future.  I have no hard evidence but I do remember talk (rumors) 2 years ago or so about

him maybe losing his passion for football and wanting to get more involved with his church.  I want to stress that it was a rumor but

I remember making a mental note of it at the time.

 

I think I quoted it above, it frankly didn't sound as though football was his passion even in college.  I think that's true about more of these players than we know, which is why the big Demotivation sets in once they get paid.

 

Edit: here

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's been asked of others who have said this:

-what is the source of the rumor that Star has dropped weight and has it been verified?

 

I haven't received an answer yet.  Thanks.

 

I also couldn’t find anything, Star is on Twitter, maybe we should just ask him lol

[Doc]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I can see it as a possibility. Not a likelihood, though, far from it.

 

Go ahead and stick with Fromm if you like, but I think you're wrong there. The guy was the COVID backup. He missed out on large parts of what a rookie usually gets. In a Super Bowl-possible year, you don't want a guy like Fromm who's never thrown a single pass, and never even had a real off-season to be your QB if Allen gets injured. Expect Barkley or a replacement to be on the roster. At the edge of possibility I could imagine that replacement being Davis Webb. At least he's a guy who you know what you have.

 

I agree with you that they can get Feliciano for $3 - $4M cap hit this year if they do a little contract ju-jitsu. And I also agree that he would be worth that even in this difficult year.

 

But if you offer most of the others vet min, even the ones who would like to stay are likely to be gone. The difference between vet min and $1.5 or $2M isn't all that big for a team, but it's huge for these guys. You look at a guy like McKenzie. You speculate Roberts will be gone, which I think is a real possibility. If so, McKenzie's value immediately rises. Again, he had five TDs last year and a kick return TD besides. If we don't give him $2 or $3M, someone will. And he'll take that offer if we're offering vet min, and then we'll be stuck offering someone else a contract and discovering that for vet min you get a guy you hope not to see in the lineup except as a short-term injury replacement.

 

Same for guys like Marlowe. He'll never be a $4M guy, but he has real value as a backup who won't drop the level at which your defense will play. He'll very likely get more than vet min. A bit less than he might another year? Yeah, probably. But that's exactly why teams that have money this year are even luckier than teams that have money in a normal year. They can offer a guy like Marlowe or McKenzie a 20% or 30% cut and get a bargain in that teams that are having cap problems won't be able to match. Guys like Marlowe, Barkley, Boettger, Levi Wallace. They don't come back for vet min. In Joe B's season projection, he suggested tendering them as UFAs and understanding you might lose a few of them. Yeah, much more reasonable.

 

And I'd love to see them re-sign Williams. I'm with you there, but IMO that's where the tight cap hits and hurts. Not in forcing us to miss out on a guy like Marlowe or McKenzie or Barkley or Yeldon, if they want to keep him, or Bojorquez or Feliciano, who you can bring back without spending too too much extra. It's the guy with the big possibilities like Daryl Williams. So far in his career, Williams earned $2.8M in his first four years and last year's $6M. He's not going to be looking to give us a break here.

 

The general consensus has long been that we could sign Milano or Williams. I think that's right, though I'd love to get them both.

 

So they probably can't bring Williams back but they will have to replace him, and not with a vet min guy either. Even if they think it's likely they will go OT in the 1st round, Beane loves to fill his obvious holes in FA with mid-level guys so he isn't forced to reach in the draft if things don't fall the way he likes. So IMO they can't bring back Williams but will bring in a replacement for somewhere between, say $2.5 - $4M, maybe a bit less this year if they are willing to finagle the contract a bit to backload it.

 

Agree on pretty much everything but Fromm/Barkley.  That the Bills kept Fromm on the 53-man roster tells me they liked enough of what they saw to not risk cutting him to try and sneak him onto the PS.  He is a supposedly a quick study and will have had a year in the NFL and in the system anyway.  And while he didn't have the same experience most rookies do, he'll get that this year.  Again the tight cap make Barkley expendable, but he's unlikely to get offers so they should keep him on speed dial, while Webb will likely be on the PS.

 

[JohnNord]

On 3/11/2021 at 8:14 AM, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

Your friends sources are wrong.  Star’s contract makes it very unlikely he gets cut.  Too much dead cap space.   

[Reed83HOF]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think I quoted it above, it frankly didn't sound as though football was his passion even in college.  I think that's true about more of these players than we know, which is why the big Demotivation sets in once they get paid.

 And a year away from the game and the grind. If you have enough to live on, it makes it really hard to want to go back...

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

I think you have it right.  I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations?  My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following.

 

Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought.   Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star.  This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt....

 

While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a whole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

Ps. Thanks for doing that.

Thanks right back at you.  Great catch. 

[TheFunPolice]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's been asked of others who have said this:

-what is the source of the rumor that Star has dropped weight and has it been verified?

 

I haven't received an answer yet.  Thanks.

 

 

I have only heard that on this thread. I was mostly responding to the person who said it here. 

 

Hopefully it's not true.