The Compensatory Pick System Is BROKEN.

[Rigotz]

For those who are still struggling to understand why it’s a bad thing to give all of the good teams more free draft picks, while giving the bad teams none, here’s an article:

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2018/04/05/three-ways-fix-compensatory-picks/

 

It also gets into specifics about why the system was designed. Hint: it wasn’t to make sure that good teams continue to get more draft picks than bad teams.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

For those who are still struggling to understand why it’s a bad thing to give all of the good teams more free draft picks, while giving the bad teams none, here’s an article:

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2018/04/05/three-ways-fix-compensatory-picks/

 

It also gets into specifics about why the system was designed. Hint: it wasn’t to make sure that good teams continue to get more draft picks than bad teams.

Direct quote from the first paragraph:

 

”The idea was well-meaning: to give something to a team that lost a player.”

 

That’s exactly why it was designed. And that’s how it works.

 

Imagine digging up an article that proved you wrong in the first 3 sentences.

[Rigotz]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Direct quote from the first paragraph:

 

”The idea was well-meaning: to give something to a team that lost a player.”

 

That’s exactly why it was designed. And that’s how it works.

 

Imagine digging up an article that proved you wrong in the first 3 sentences.

You expected the NFL to make a statement that specifically states “we want the teams who nobody wants to play for to have a fair chance” ... that was your expectation? 
 

Or, maybe you expected the rule to say “the NFL intends to reward bad football teams for being unattractive destinations that have to overpay every year” ... was that it?

 

Read between the lines, jesus. Or even try reading more than just the first 3 lines. The intent of the original rule was clear.

[Tuco]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

For those who are still struggling to understand why it’s a bad thing to give all of the good teams more free draft picks, while giving the bad teams none, here’s an article:

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2018/04/05/three-ways-fix-compensatory-picks/

 

It also gets into specifics about why the system was designed. Hint: it wasn’t to make sure that good teams continue to get more draft picks than bad teams.

 

For what it's worth, fix #2 has been implemented.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 3/10/2021 at 9:56 PM, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

It's almost embarrassing how bad Buffalo has been at taking advantage of the comp pick system. We have 0 comp picks with Beane as GM. That's a disturbing lack of planning. 

 

Well its usually players coming off rookie contracts who are getting paid in free agency.  Since they have been here they've only had 4 drafts... and they extended the 3 players from 2017.  

 

If anything its a product of poor drafting prior to their arrival.  1 player from 2016 draft was signed away (Ragland was traded for a 4th - more than the comp pick).  1 player was eligible in 2015 (maybe? i don't remember how much miller got paid, and they had already traded darby by this point).  2 players from 2014 in watkins and brown - watkins was traded.  

 

If they sat on darby and watkins maybe they get comp picks.  They traded them both for considerably more value than comp picks.  Between all these trades, there was considerable roster turnover.   They've always drafted between 6-8 players every season. 

 

They made these moves in the same time to acquire picks:

Teller + 7th for 5th and 6th in 2020

Bodine for a 6th in 2020

Zay Jones for a 5th in 2021

Glenn + 1st and 5th to move up in the 1st

Tyrod for pick 65

Mccarron for 2019 5th

Newhouse for 2021 draft pick

 

At least 3 of those guys were almost guaranteed cut players.  

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

11 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Well its usually players coming off rookie contracts who are getting paid in free agency.  Since they have been here they've only had 4 drafts... and they extended the 3 players from 2017.  

 

If anything its a product of poor drafting prior to their arrival.  1 player from 2016 draft was signed away (Ragland was traded for a 4th - more than the comp pick).  1 player was eligible in 2015 (maybe? i don't remember how much miller got paid, and they had already traded darby by this point).  2 players from 2014 in watkins and brown - watkins was traded.  

 

If they sat on darby and watkins maybe they get comp picks.  They traded them both for considerably more value than comp picks.  Between all these trades, there was considerable roster turnover.   They've always drafted between 6-8 players every season. 

 

They made these moves in the same time to acquire picks:

Teller + 7th for 5th and 6th in 2020

Bodine for a 6th in 2020

Zay Jones for a 5th in 2021

Glenn + 1st and 5th to move up in the 1st

Tyrod for pick 65

Mccarron for 2019 5th

Newhouse for 2021 draft pick

 

At least 3 of those guys were almost guaranteed cut players.  

 

How about defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore? Robert Woods? Shaq Lawson? Jordan Phillips? 

 

Beane has pissed away a handful of 3rd round comp picks by handing out UFA contracts to replacement level players. Trading some of those signees away for late round draft picks is still a net loss. 

 

I think Beane has done pretty well as GM (who can argue with a 13-3 season and 2 playoff wins?), but he's been absolutely atrocious when it comes to handling comp picks. 

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

How about defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore? Robert Woods? Shaq Lawson? Jordan Phillips? 

 

Beane has pissed away a handful of 3rd round comp picks by handing out UFA contracts to replacement level players. Trading some of those signees away for late round draft picks is still a net loss. 

 

I think Beane has done pretty well as GM (who can argue with a 13-3 season and 2 playoff wins?), but he's been absolutely atrocious when it comes to handling comp picks. 

Our roster has not yet been at the point where the Comp pick formula will benefit us.

[GunnerBill]

On 3/11/2021 at 1:11 PM, dneveu said:

 

Pandemic and limited salary cap this year. Brown and Jefferson don't factor in, if any rfas are non tendered I don't think they count either. So it's basically just Milano, Feliciano, and Williams. If they only target players who were cut they'd probably get some, but I doubt it.

 

 

What I was actually thinking was Milano and Williams would get top end deals and then we would still have McKenzie, Roberts, Murphy, Winters all likely to get qualifying offers, expecting that we would keep Mongo. 

 

But ignore that given the events of the last 3 days.

[GunnerBill]

On 3/12/2021 at 2:08 AM, Rigotz said:

For those who are still struggling to understand why it’s a bad thing to give all of the good teams more free draft picks, while giving the bad teams none, here’s an article:

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2018/04/05/three-ways-fix-compensatory-picks/

 

It also gets into specifics about why the system was designed. Hint: it wasn’t to make sure that good teams continue to get more draft picks than bad teams.

 

That article is pretending that that the system isn't working as intended because cut players don't count when signed. Except of course that is entirely intentional. 

 

You can argue the system should be changed if you wish to but you are trying to argue it isn't working as intended. And that is just not true.

[GunnerBill]

On 3/12/2021 at 2:25 AM, Rigotz said:

You expected the NFL to make a statement that specifically states “we want the teams who nobody wants to play for to have a fair chance” ... that was your expectation? 
 

Or, maybe you expected the rule to say “the NFL intends to reward bad football teams for being unattractive destinations that have to overpay every year” ... was that it?

 

Read between the lines, jesus. Or even try reading more than just the first 3 lines. The intent of the original rule was clear.

 

The rule was NEVER intended to help bad teams or good teams. It was designed to compensate teams who lost free agents. 

 

I think they should do away with 3rd round comps and start them in round 4. A more radical suggestion would be to only count free agents a team loses that they themselves drafted, to recognise the role they played in developing them into NFL players. There would be a certain logical consistency to that.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The rule was NEVER intended to help bad teams or good teams. It was designed to compensate teams who lost free agents. 

 

I think they should do away with 3rd round comps and start them in round 4. A more radical suggestion would be to only count free agents a team loses that they themselves drafted, to recognise the role they played in developing them into NFL players. There would be a certain logical consistency to that.

Radical indeed, but would eliminate the role that certain teams serve in acquiring other teams FAs and maintaining if not accentuate their value. Trading for a Jerry Hughes, turning him from a bubble player to a very good vet and then losing him in FA would be well served as Comp pick worthy scenario.

 

The reason why the Pats do so well in Comp picks is because of this btw. There was like 3 or 4 years in a row they acquired disappointing or middling Browns players for next to nothing, turned them into good players and then let them hit FA.

 

The larger part of all this is why the Bills don’t do Comp picks well under Beane. Chiefly, this is due to their team building strategy. They basically traded away all of their players worthy of comp picks to start. Then, Beane and McD have signed MANY UFAs in their tenure here. I haven’t looked it up, but I would bet we are probably top 5 in the NFL when it comes to raw number of UFA’s signed. Their strategy seemed to be acquire a ton of mediocre to solid UFA’s to build the backbone of our roster. The great OL acquisition period of 2019 comes to mind, where they grabbed Mongo, Morse, Long, Neshke and a few others. That’s going to hurt your comp formula. 

Now Beane has offset this by ALSO taking advantage of regularly trading guys on the roster fringes for late picks rather than outright cuts. And now that we are no longer a team that can afford to pay decent UFAs a premium at low value positions, I would expect the formula to work again in our favor.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Radical indeed, but would eliminate the role that certain teams serve in acquiring other teams FAs and maintaining if not accentuate their value. Trading for a Jerry Hughes, turning him from a bubble player to a very good vet and then losing him in FA would be well served as Comp pick worthy scenario.

 

The reason why the Pats do so well in Comp picks is because of this btw. There was like 3 or 4 years in a row they acquired disappointing or middling Browns players for next to nothing, turned them into good players and then let them hit FA.

 

The larger part of all this is why the Bills don’t do Comp picks well under Beane. Chiefly, this is due to their team building strategy. They basically traded away all of their players worthy of comp picks to start. Then, Beane and McD have signed MANY UFAs in their tenure here. I haven’t looked it up, but I would bet we are probably top 5 in the NFL when it comes to raw number of UFA’s signed. Their strategy seemed to be acquire a ton of mediocre to solid UFA’s to build the backbone of our roster. The great OL acquisition period of 2019 comes to mind, where they grabbed Mongo, Morse, Long, Neshke and a few others. That’s going to hurt your comp formula. 

Now Beane has offset this by ALSO taking advantage of regularly trading guys on the roster fringes for late picks rather than outright cuts. And now that we are no longer a team that can afford to pay decent UFAs a premium at low value positions, I would expect the formula to work again in our favor.

 

I agree. I am not necessarily saying I'd go that way either. I just think if you are in the camp that believes in curtailing the comp pick system then there would be a logical coherence to restricting to "home grown".

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 3/13/2021 at 2:22 AM, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

How about defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore? Robert Woods? Shaq Lawson? Jordan Phillips? 

 

Beane has pissed away a handful of 3rd round comp picks by handing out UFA contracts to replacement level players. Trading some of those signees away for late round draft picks is still a net loss. 

 

I think Beane has done pretty well as GM (who can argue with a 13-3 season and 2 playoff wins?), but he's been absolutely atrocious when it comes to handling comp picks. 

 

Gilmore was before Beane.  We didn't exactly have replacements for Lawson and Phillips at the time either.  If you had drafted other ends/tackles for the rotation you might not sign anyone, but Buffalo had spent a lot of draft capital on upgrading offensive line and QB.