Beane's salary cap management

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I wonder if sustained success is the model or if the Bills should go for it the next 2 seasons and make more "win now" moves? Given that Josh's contract is going to heavily impact things in 2022-2023 (depending on the timing of his contract) and beyond is the window to win smaller than projected? It will be very telling to see how they approach this off-season. So far the choices have been to be more balanced and pick their spots for larger deals.

To me it’s a balancing act.  Mortgaging the future too much will place us where we were in the late 90’s with John Butler.  I loved him at the time post Polian, but he mortgaged the future buying tons of defensive talent like Spielman, Big Teddy, Wiley, Paul, and so on.  Donahue was brought into fix it, when Butler went to SD and we know what a banner job he did.

 

I understand the sentiment to buy a couple of stars and I floated the possibility of Ngakoue, but Inigo you are right.  The problem even for some of soundest smartest guys on this board who are so passionate about the Bills, they want to whatever it takes to get that first SB championship.  Most of us aren’t old enough to remember the 60’s championship wins.
 

As always Inigo, thank for such a thoughtful and thorough thread that places things into perspective.  I guess the insiders knew what they were doing when they voted him for executive of the year.   I see the mood down here in Tampa after they pulled off what most thought wasn’t possible.  To completely emasculate the Chiefs to 0 TD’s in the biggest game of the year.  People in this city have been on cloud 9 since that night.  I just want the same for my present and former Buffalo brethren.

 

Besides, unless there more pay cuts, we don’t have that much.  Some wise man again on this board have reminded us in years past we have to keep $12 mil. minimum in the rears.  $7 mil. for the draft, and a $5 mil., emergency fund as players get hurt, and replacements are needed every year.  So if we can find one or two more players to accept modest cuts, that would be optimal.

Edited March 11, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was looking at Sportrac to see where the Bills cap situation was after releasing Brown and Jefferson and restructuring Butler and Morse.   We currently have $25m in cap space which is 13th best in the NFL.

 

Just as interesting I thought was the numbers for each team's dead cap space.   The Bills are 13th best in the league with just $4.1m of dead cap on the books as of today.  The league average for dead space is $9.3m.   The Chargers are in the best shape with only $58,000 in dead cap space, and the Eagles are worst with $40.1m 

 

It's nice to see that Beane has made contracts over the last four years with an eye towards maximizing salary cap flexibility and minimizing dead cap space.  The Eagles are in the same situation the Bills were in during year two of the Beane regime when he deliberately ate all of the dead cap off of the Bills' books in one year.  It is going to be hard to field a competitive roster in Philly this year with 25% less salary available to build their roster. 

 

Beane has said repeatedly that this low dead cap hit is not an accident.   He knows that to field a competitive lineup you can't handicap your roster with a big dead cap hit.   It's because of this that  I don't expect to see Beane making a lot of moves that push the cost of contracts down the road.   I think he will do his best to structure contracts that will not put the franchise back in cap trouble.  It's what a responsible GM should do.

 

Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year.  What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well.   Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap.  Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills.   Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now.

 

Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success".  I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

 

I would be suprised if they restructured a bunch of current contracts.  Beane has already told us not to expect big splash free agents and there are a LOT of players that are going to be looking for work.

 

The "core" of the team is set and I expect us to be looking for bargains.

[Utah John]

If we get Williams and Milano back, that's success. Add in Feliciano, who sounds like he'll not push for a max contract in order to stick around, and we're good.

 

Losing Williams means drafting an OT for need rather than going for BPA.  That usually doesn't work out well.

[ALF]

A bigger salary cap in future years from the TV contract is perfect timing for  re-signing Allen and keeping other good players.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

 

We have about $15M. Not $25M.

 

They haven't included the Butler pay cut, though, as nobody knows yet how much it will be. So we'll have a bit more. He'll likely cut another guy or two

 

Having said, that, we'll have to sign our draft class, Corey Bojorquez or a replacement, Matt Barkley or a replacement, Andre Roberts or a replacement, TJ Yeldon or a replacement, Levi Wallace And E.J. Gaines or  replacement CBs, Dean Marlowe or a replacement, Feliciano or a replacement, Boettger or a replacement, McKenzie or a replacement, Taiwan Jones or a replacement and Isaiah McKenzie or a replacement.

 

None of these guys count now against the cap, and a bunch of them will be on the team.

 

Not to mention Matt Milano or a replacement and Daryl Williams or a replacement.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Agree on Singletary, and Moss..... they are back up RBs that could be replaced by cheap Vets or later round picks. Bad use of resources in the 3rd round. 
 

Fords a bust to this point. Way too early on AJE. Knox is a dumb, athletic and frustrating football player. Probably a backup TE in this league at best. Oliver is good and will get better. I’ve said enough on Edmunds. He just doesn’t move the needle at MLB.

 

 

That's ridiculous. Singletary was fifth in the NFL last year at YPA. To say that he's a backup is showing far more about how little you get it than it is about our RBs.

 

You've heard Beane say that they weren't the problem. He's infinitely more likely to be right than you are.

 

Now, are they top 5 or 10 RBs? No, they sure haven't shown that. But most of the problem was the line and the fact that they didn't work on running enough this year.

 

As for Ford, there's no such thing as "a bust to this point." A guy is a bust or he's not. If he hasn't done well yet but turns into a good player, he was never a bust, the dolts who said he was were not clever enough to know they were popping off far too early. It's indeed too early to know on Ford, though he doesn't look good enough at tackle. But in his first year at guard, having no real offseason to work on it, and then being switched side-to-side, which is an extremely tough switch, and having five games to work on all of that, he didn't have any real chance to show what he had. He still has a very good chance to be a player there.

 

And yeah, you have said enough on Edmunds. You disagree with the Bills there too, and of the two of you, it ain't likely them that doesn't get it.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

DL, OL, CB. 

 

 

Yeah, sounds good. And LB if we lose Milano. Maybe a TE. RB in the later rounds.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

And LB if we lose Milano. Maybe a TE. RB in the later rounds.

I'm ok at LB because of McDermott. I think he'll find a way. The other positions are premium positions and we need some more talent. We just don't compare at DL and OL to other Super Bowl teams. 

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

OTC has us at $19.5 under and Butler still is not known and Lee Smith's 2.25 us still there.

 

So 21.5 plus Butler's restructure

 

 

 

OTC has left a lot out of our dead cap. Compare their dead money numbers to Spotrac's.

 

OTC has not accounted for Quinton Jefferson's $1.5M, Tyler Kroft's $800K, and a bunch more smaller ones. It totals around $2.3M.

 

Nobody has taken Lee Smith off, because as of yet he's still contemplating. When he makes his mind up, the Bills will decide what they want to do with him and everyone will go from there.

 

 

 

EDIT:  DOH! Looks like Spotrac hasn't taken off Morse's cut yet either. Perhaps that's why they are diverging a bit.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's ridiculous. Singletary was fifth in the NFL last year at YPA. To say that he's a backup is showing far more about how little you get it than it is about our RBs.

 

You've heard Beane say that they weren't the problem. He's infinitely more likely to be right than you are.

 

Now, are they top 5 or 10 RBs? No, they sure haven't shown that. But most of the problem was the line and the fact that they didn't work on running enough this year.

 

I think both Singletary and Moss are not so much backups but just not difference makers. If you had either of them with a difference maker at running back they'd look better. Beane says they are not the problem.... maybe he is right... but he also has an interest in defending the guys he spent valuable assets on. To me the problem is more the disconnect between the type of offensive linemen they have prioritised (and continue to with the Morse news) and the running backs they have prioritised. The two (the line and the backs) have never felt to me like they are the perfect compliment for each other. Maybe that is because they changed some things on the hoof which can happen, maybe they misevaluated which is possible, or they think they do mesh and there is a reason it hasn't worked out on the field. I said yesterday that I think it would be a really fascinating conversation to sit down and have with Beane in private and really get a sense of why they have built it that way because I was saying as long as two years ago I wasn't sure about it and while Singletary had some nice success early (his first 4 games) once teams saw tape on him his last 24 games he has averaged a paltry 4.2 yards per attempt and Moss this year 4.3. I am not putting it all on the backs.... or all on the line.... I just think the combination doesn't really mesh. 

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

The whole topic of Cap management is really interesting.

 

On one hand I think Beane has done an incredible job with outs. He won’t ever get us into that situation of carrying  all that dead cap money in the future again like a few years ago.
 

Yet we pumped way to much money into a Dline that’s underachieved to what’s been invested.
 

We also have a mantra of wanting to draft and keep our own. While Milano might not be worth top tier dollars.   if we look at him in context to our other  draft picks he may just be the best of the bunch and he’s gone. Now obviously circumstances have a part  in this. 
Covid cap has really put a wrench for a team like us because we are so close.
 

Yet this season I don’t think we can really go all In for it. We have are now having to pick and choose where to spend. Unless Beane somehow can land a bunch of stars at one year rentals.. many teams are in similar situations,  but some teams with lots of cap space will close the gap. 

 

I honestly think this season is more about hold the Fort steady.   We are very much a legitimate threat -12-13 win team  again but we need to get lucky in my opinion to see this roster jump to Super Bowl quality.

 

With the bigger cap on the horizon I am sure Beane is already looking ahead to next year crop of Free agents and trying to see what make sense this year and beyond. If this is their best chance to land someone who can get to the Qb then go for it. There are guys out there and it’s a need. I’m particularly interested in Lawson because of his age and something along the lines of most Qb pressures of all the free agents out there.

My prediction is that

Beane has to sign one more of our lineman back it and it will be Mongo.
He has more versitality than Williams. We probably draft a tackle or find a value free agent if any available.
 

Plus I think Williams will be looking to get paid and someone with more cap space will sign him. If somehow we can get them both good but not at the expense of not finding someone who can get to the Qb. 

 

Beane makes two splashes in Free Agency- one will be one of the better Pass  rushers available. I’m sure he can be creative with the cap to push some money to future years. 

 

The other I am unsure of- I’m keeping an eye on Tight End because it’s not too often so many options hit the market. How do they really feel about Knox?

 

The other is possibly a number 2 Corner.

 

Beane has his work cut out for him this season. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Boxcar]

13 hours ago, Magox said:

 

They aren't done yet.   They are waiting for things to shake out, I think the cuts they made were for players that they believe they already have or are pretty sure that they have upgrades or at least comparable options.   Gabe is very likely penciled in as the opposite side receiver to Diggs and Stills as a good option to stretch the field.  John Brown was flexible in this sort of cap crunch year.

 

Jefferson disappointed and I think they saw enough.   Butler and Morse have taken pay cuts, and I imagine Addison is very likely a goner as well.

 

The Bills have enough room to sign the rookie class and enough to sign some potential impacting well-known players who were cap casualties. 

Jefferson was mostly playing out of position. I have no idea why they went with Butler instead.

[BuffaninSarasota]

12 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Seems out of place here.

Yes, along with no typos or blatant misuse of apostrophes....

[Jobot]

15 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I wonder if sustained success is the model or if the Bills should go for it the next 2 seasons and make more "win now" moves? Given that Josh's contract is going to heavily impact things in 2022-2023 (depending on the timing of his contract) and beyond is the window to win smaller than projected? It will be very telling to see how they approach this off-season. So far the choices have been to be more balanced and pick their spots for larger deals.

 

I think there's two windows here at play.

 

Window 1- Allen under his rookie contract.

Window 2-Allen in the prime of his career.

 

Window 1 is short, and IMO not worth gambling away years from window-2 that can so easily get derailed in the NFL with injury or other factors coming from a 16 game season. Mahommes winning a superbowl is a MASSIVE outlier where everthing fell into place..even down to his superbowl opponent/opposing qb/opposing coach.

[MrSarcasm]

6 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

To me it’s a balancing act.  Mortgaging the future too much will place us where we were in the late 90’s with John Butler.  I loved him at the time post Polian, but he mortgaged the future buying tons of defensive talent

Mortgaging the future is about the stupidest thing a team could do. 

 

Eagles and Saints are 2 teams that mortgaged their future and are now in cap hell and have to start over.

 

I'd rather be the Steelers and Ravens- draft well, keep your own if possible. 

 

Sustained success is much more valuable.

 

 

[JGMcD2]

51 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

Mortgaging the future is about the stupidest thing a team could do. 

 

Eagles and Saints are 2 teams that mortgaged their future and are now in cap hell and have to start over.

 

I'd rather be the Steelers and Ravens- draft well, keep your own if possible. 

 

Sustained success is much more valuable.

 

 

You have a better chance of making a Super Bowl that way... 

 

If you’re in the playoffs you ALWAYS have a chance... if you mortgage the future for 1-2 seasons you theoretically increase your chances for 2 seasons but it’s still a crapshoot. I’d rather been in the conversation 10 years in a row than load up for 2 years and miss the playoffs for 8. 

[dave mcbride]

14 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

He also played for Carolina so it’s being considered....

He is an appealing player regardless. He's an extremely good fit for Daboll's scheme, and he is lightning fast (4.31 40).  He'll turn 25 in August too.

[ColoradoBills]

I want to comment on "restructures".

Most teams (especially playoff caliber teams) have a couple of players under a restructure contract.

It's a very useful tool if not overdone like the Saints/Eagles have done.

Beane is conservative but he does have some decent options to pull off $5M-$7M of cap savings this year using it.

Poyer, Beasley and Hughes (with a void year) come to mind.  All 3 combined only have $7M ish in Dead Money left on their contracts.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if some of these players have already been approached and Beane has this knowledge in his quiver if needed.

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, Boxcar said:

Jefferson was mostly playing out of position. I have no idea why they went with Butler instead.

May have to do with size as Butler is 330 and Jefferson 285-290.  Butler gives them a large option at 3T on run downs to put next to Star. And Butler as a DT on passing downs could be like Jordan Philips when paired with Oliver to generate inside pass rush.  Another Edge rusher would help the pass rush scheme.  Have to believe that is where some of available cap will go.

[Saxum]

17 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Lee Smith already said he was retiring so that adds $2.25 to the $18, so we are at around $20.25M plus whatever Butlers reduction is. I will assume some more moves or restructures will becoming as well. 

 

Lee Smith said he is considering retiring (someone else speculated he is retiring) and he has not intention on having a long career like T*m Br*dy but was waiting to hear from Bills on next season.