Inigo Montoya Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) I was looking at Sportrac to see where the Bills cap situation was after releasing Brown and Jefferson and restructuring Butler and Morse. We currently have $25m in cap space which is 13th best in the NFL. Just as interesting I thought was the numbers for each team's dead cap space. The Bills are 13th best in the league with just $4.1m of dead cap on the books as of today. The league average for dead space is $9.3m. The Chargers are in the best shape with only $58,000 in dead cap space, and the Eagles are worst with $40.1m It's nice to see that Beane has made contracts over the last four years with an eye towards maximizing salary cap flexibility and minimizing dead cap space. The Eagles are in the same situation the Bills were in during year two of the Beane regime when he deliberately ate all of the dead cap off of the Bills' books in one year. It is going to be hard to field a competitive roster in Philly this year with 25% less salary available to build their roster. Beane has said repeatedly that this low dead cap hit is not an accident. He knows that to field a competitive lineup you can't handicap your roster with a big dead cap hit. It's because of this that I don't expect to see Beane making a lot of moves that push the cost of contracts down the road. I think he will do his best to structure contracts that will not put the franchise back in cap trouble. It's what a responsible GM should do. Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year. What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well. Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap. Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills. Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now. Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success". I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ Edited March 11, 2021 by Inigo Montoya 27 9 1 2
BuffaninSarasota Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 Good post, well-written and logical .... 1
Reed83HOF Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 He has been great with the free agent signings and contract structure to minimize the dead cap hits if they don't work out. Haven't seen a comment about Overdorf in sometime here either. 1
billsfan89 Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 I wonder if sustained success is the model or if the Bills should go for it the next 2 seasons and make more "win now" moves? Given that Josh's contract is going to heavily impact things in 2022-2023 (depending on the timing of his contract) and beyond is the window to win smaller than projected? It will be very telling to see how they approach this off-season. So far the choices have been to be more balanced and pick their spots for larger deals. 2
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said: I was looking at Sportrac to see where the Bills cap situation was after releasing Brown and Jefferson and restructuring Butler and Morse. We currently have $25m in cap space which is 13th best in the NFL. Just as interesting I though was the numbers for each team's dead cap space. The Bills are 13th best in the league with just $4.1m of dead cap on the books as of today. The league average for dead space is $9.3m. The Chargers are in the best shape with only $58,000 in dead cap space, and the Eagles are worst with $40.1m It's nice to see that Beane has made contracts over the last four years with an eye towards maximizing salary cap flexibility and minimizing dead cap space. The Eagles are in the same situation the Bills were in during year two of the Beane regime when he deliberately ate all of the dead cap off of the the Bills' books in one year. It is going to be hard to field a competitive roster in Philly this year with 25% less salary available to build their roster. Beane has said repeatedly that this low dead cap hit is not an accident. He knows that to field a competitive lineup you can't handicap your roster with a big dead cap hit. It's because of this that I don't expect to see Beane making a lot of moves that push the cost of contracts down the road. I think he will do his best to structure contracts that will not put the franchise back in cap trouble. It's what a responsible GM should do. Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year. What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well. Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap. Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills. Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now. Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success". I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ People have been saying for a while the Bills are in good shape.
C.Biscuit97 Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 A lot easier to do this when they don’t have to pay Allen $50 million/ year. This is their year to go all in because everything is about to become that much more difficult in 2022. 2
H2o Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 I see a shade over $15M on here https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ 1
Ethan in Cleveland Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 Good post. It all changes when Allen's extension kicks in though. 1 1
Magox Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Not sure they are done cutting players. I could see Addison next. Yea... wouldn't be surprised to see a change of strategy if they come up short of a championship this season next offseason. They aren't done yet. They are waiting for things to shake out, I think the cuts they made were for players that they believe they already have or are pretty sure that they have upgrades or at least comparable options. Gabe is very likely penciled in as the opposite side receiver to Diggs and Stills as a good option to stretch the field. John Brown was flexible in this sort of cap crunch year. Jefferson disappointed and I think they saw enough. Butler and Morse have taken pay cuts, and I imagine Addison is very likely a goner as well. The Bills have enough room to sign the rookie class and enough to sign some potential impacting well-known players who were cap casualties.
costrovs Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, H2o said: I see a shade over $15M on here https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ It had me confused for a second too, but that 15M is still from a salary cap of 173M. It'll go up to at least 183M, hence the 25M in cap space. Edited March 10, 2021 by costrovs 1
Aussie Joe Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said: Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year. What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well. Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap. Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills. Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now. Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success". I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now. Its hard to argue with what you are saying, however I think you need to consider this years cap reduction/situation as a a one off and something that they didnt forsee happening... We know the situation with the available cap space today, even after a couple of more obvious cuts and restructures that have already happened.. they dont have a lot to play with and they have some holes to fill in what we expect (hope) is a year that they will be contending for the championship... so I think they need to free up a bit more money for this free agency period... I'd be ok with restructuring a couple of guys to push a bit of money into the next couple of years.. there might be quite a large increase in the cap next year , so roll the dice whilst JA is still cheap...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: A lot easier to do this when they don’t have to pay Allen $50 million/ year. This is their year to go all in because everything is about to become that much more difficult in 2022. 2023. Allen has to sign an extension. Cap hit for 21 and 22 will not be affected that much. 1 minute ago, Magox said: They aren't done yet. They are waiting for things to shake out, I think the cuts they made were for players that they believe they already have or are pretty sure that they have upgrades or at least comparable options. Gabe is very likely penciled in as the opposite side receiver to Diggs and Stills as a good option to stretch the field. John Brown was flexible in this sort of cap crunch year. Jefferson disappointed and I think they saw enough. Butler and Morse have taken pay cuts, and I imagine Addison is very likely a goner as well. The Bills have enough room to sign the rookie class and enough to sign some potential impacting well-known players who were cap casualties. Stills isn't on the team 3
costrovs Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 It also looks like the Bills will need 5.4M for their rookies, assuming we keep all 6 picks and don't move in the draft. Let's just round that to 20M to make things easier. What do you guys think the bills will do? Didn't Beane say not to expect any major signings in FA this year? I'm assuming he means players from other teams, not Williams/Milano. Maybe cut 1 or 2 more players, and extend Williams and call it a day?
Matt_In_NH Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said: Its hard to argue with what you are saying, however I think you need to consider this years cap reduction/situation as a a one off and something that they didnt forsee happening... We know the situation with the available cap space today, even after a couple of more obvious cuts and restructures that have already happened.. they dont have a lot to play with and they have some holes to fill in what we expect (hope) is a year that they will be contending for the championship... so I think they need to free up a bit more money for this free agency period... I'd be ok with restructuring a couple of guys to push a bit of money into the next couple of years.. there might be quite a large increase in the cap next year , so roll the dice whilst JA is still cheap... Agreed, but the question is how far to you go to mitigate. You could argue you just take your medicine this year and then future years are unaffected. Or you try and spread it out. I tend to be conservative with stuff like this so my nature would be to minimize contract restructures. But they may need to do some to just fill some of the holes that are created. Andre Roberts, Feliciano, D Williams, Milano just to get started. As it stands today, we maybe can get one of those guys with what they need to still fill in on the back end and the fact they will need 8-10M for the draft class. I think you might be best off letting the dust settle and get some bargains. Player development will be huge moving forward....its hard to say this team will not take a step back talent wise for 2021. I think that will have to be accepted.
C.Biscuit97 Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: 2023. Allen has to sign an extension. Cap hit for 21 and 22 will not be affected that much. Stills isn't on the team Thanks but this is the hard part of the job. People love killing Whaley but when you have good talent getting second contracts, it costs a lot more. the good/ bad side is they actually have a legit franchise guy. But the problem is when they have to pay him a ton. This is the SB window. This is when you go all in with short year contracts. Edited March 10, 2021 by C.Biscuit97
BigdaddyinOrlando Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 He has done and awesome job w the cap, we were sitting pretty to keep everyone we wanted to keep. The pandemic hits and we are still in pretty good shape compared to many others. The man has done a phenomenal job in not having us hamstrung! Future looks very bright as far as money availability goes!
H2o Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, costrovs said: It had me confused for a second too, but that 15M is still from a salary cap of 173M. It'll go up to at least 183M, hence the 25M in cap space. Nah, I don't think so. It has the cap set at $182.5M and the adjusted cap set at $188M which would be right if you add our rollover. I think we literally have a little more than $15M right now in cap room. 2 1
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, costrovs said: It also looks like the Bills will need 5.4M for their rookies, assuming we keep all 6 picks and don't move in the draft. Let's just round that to 20M to make things easier. What do you guys think the bills will do? Didn't Beane say not to expect any major signings in FA this year? I'm assuming he means players from other teams, not Williams/Milano. Maybe cut 1 or 2 more players, and extend Williams and call it a day? He said don't expect a Diggs like move. But they tried signing Watt. I think we can forget a big $15+ million deal for anyone, but there will be some big names available below that #. 1 1
costrovs Posted March 10, 2021 Posted March 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2o said: Nah, I don't think so. It has the cap set at $182.5M and the adjusted cap set at $188M which would be right if you add our rollover. I think we literally have a little more than $15M right now in cap room. good point, I didn't see that. Looks like 15M it is.
H2o Posted March 11, 2021 Posted March 11, 2021 The more I look at how Beane is managing things I'm starting to think we'll be drafting OL twice in the first 3 rounds and expecting them to see heavy playing time. We can create a little more cap with a couple of releases here or there, but we still need $6-$7M just to sign our draft picks.
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