Zach Ertz about to be traded? [Edit: or Not]

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Do you really want to spend 8-11 million on a player who would basically be a luxury and not a "need" though?

 

I get it, they would be better with Ertz.

 

How much better is the real question. Especially when they Bills do employ a lot of 10-11 personnel, and keeping in mind they are tight against the cap as is with much bigger holes to fill. (Darryl williams or replacement, Felciano or replacement, pass rusher, potential CB2, potential milano replacement)

Why would we pay him 8-11M?  
 

We likely played so much 10-11 personnel because our 2nd TE was Lee Smith the majority of the year.  Why didn’t we play more 4 wide when Andre Holmes was our 4th WR?  
 

Our offense needs to add new wrinkles on a yearly basis.  We can’t stay the same.  We did vs KC and got shut down because of it. If we want to win a SB, the offense must evolve.  Going 10-11 personnel all game might not be the answer 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ya I see what you’re saying.

 

I just don’t think the bills are going to switch up what they do best though , which is 11 personnel.

 

Will they use 12 some times or some games?

 

Sure I think they will as daboll is a very matchup based coach.

 

But Allen is most comfortable in 11, that’s what they do best in, and I can’t see them bringing in a veteran TE who is going to cost a lot when they are already pressed up against the cap.

 

Just my opinion sir, I could be wrong.

 

I don't think Allen's "comfort level" in one or another personnel set should drive what the offense does.  He is a relatively young QB and mixing up the personnel helps keep defenses off balance.  He can get comfortable!  Maybe I misunderstand you?

 

The Bills ran (1,2) sets the 3rd most of any personnel grouping last year - 8% of the time.  That's actually 2nd lowest in the league.  IMHO that was solely a reflection of the "put the best players on the field" philosophy.  Having one or two of Brown Beasley Davis sit down while either Kroft or Smith got up put a better offensive weapon on the bench. 

 

The Bills started running more (1,0) or 4WR sets last year because we had 4 excellent to good WR and a decent pass protecting RB, but it was predictable - we didn't run block well enough wth the OL to run from it often so it was 74% pass the 15% of the time we ran it.

 

The reason (1,1) became the Bills most common personnel grouping ("what they do best in", 71%) was IMO because it offered us the best combination of flexibility and personnel match.  We ran 64% pass, 36% run from it with roughly the same success (55%, 53% respectively) because we had 3 excellent WR and a decent pass-protecting RB and TE to put on the field in it.  The Bills overall pass/run breakdown was 60/40, so it isn't that far off from what we did overall.

 

If we had different personnel that offered stronger options at different positions, IMHO we would run different personnel groups.

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan130]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think Allen's "comfort level" in one or another personnel set should drive what the offense does.  He is a relatively young QB and mixing up the personnel helps keep defenses off balance.  He can get comfortable!  Maybe I misunderstand you?

 

The Bills ran (1,2) sets the 3rd most of any personnel grouping last year - 8% of the time.  That's actually 2nd lowest in the league.  IMHO that was solely a reflection of the "put the best players on the field" philosophy.  Having one or two of Brown Beasley Davis sit down while either Kroft or Smith got up put a better offensive weapon on the bench. 

 

The Bills started running more (1,0) or 4WR sets last year because we had 4 excellent to good WR and a decent pass protecting RB, but it was predictable - we didn't run block well enough wth the OL to run from it often so it was 74% pass the 15% of the time we ran it.

 

The reason (1,1) became the Bills most common personnel grouping ("what they do best in", 71%) was IMO because it offered us the best combination of flexibility and personnel match.  We ran 64% pass, 36% run from it with roughly the same success (55%, 53% respectively) because we had 3 excellent WR and a decent pass-protecting RB and TE to put on the field in it.  The Bills overall pass/run breakdown was 60/40, so it isn't that far off from what we did overall.

 

If we had different personnel that offered stronger options at different positions, IMHO we would run different personnel groups.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for your detailed post. Here is what I will say though.

 

1. They are going to be paying Allen somewhere in the 40 mil range- whether they extend him this year or next remains to be seen- So in saying that, he is the franchise guy needless to say, and I think they should absolutely run schemes in which he is comfortable/excels in. 

 

2. You just said it- the bills run schemes in which matches that personnel. Well that personnel and scheme they ran resulted in what, the 2nd or 3rd ranked offence in the NFL? And thats with Josh playing with a  shoulder injury for multiples games and their WR2 being injured for the majority of the year.

 

So my question to you is. Why would you want to change that? lol. And that doesn't even speak to the financial side of things and trading assets to get a player like ertz. 

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Why would we pay him 8-11M?  
 

We likely played so much 10-11 personnel because our 2nd TE was Lee Smith the majority of the year.  Why didn’t we play more 4 wide when Andre Holmes was our 4th WR?  
 

Our offense needs to add new wrinkles on a yearly basis.  We can’t stay the same.  We did vs KC and got shut down because of it. If we want to win a SB, the offense must evolve.  Going 10-11 personnel all game might not be the answer 

He is making 11 million right now  lol or somewhere in that range- eagles are going trade him not release him- Sure they may take some salary, but that's why i said 8-11 mil.

 

The reason the Bills got crushed by the chiefs was because a variety of issues.

 

1. The couldn't run against super soft boxes

2. The o line got blown up all game

3. The Wrs were injured and ineffective.,

4. Josh didn't have his best game.

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by BillsFan130

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Why would we pay him 8-11M?  
 

We likely played so much 10-11 personnel because our 2nd TE was Lee Smith the majority of the year.  Why didn’t we play more 4 wide when Andre Holmes was our 4th WR?  
 

Our offense needs to add new wrinkles on a yearly basis.  We can’t stay the same.  We did vs KC and got shut down because of it. If we want to win a SB, the offense must evolve.  Going 10-11 personnel all game might not be the answer 

 

 

This is very important IMO.

 

They aren't going to be able to just run it back.    The league adapted to them and exploited their weaknesses in the playoffs.  They have significant room to improve and grow in several areas and may need to improve in all of them just to get back to being that 30 ppg team again in 2021.

[NewEra]

22 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Thank you for your detailed post. Here is what I will say though.

 

1. They are going to be paying Allen somewhere in the 40 mil range- whether they extend him this year or next remains to be seen- So in saying that, he is the franchise guy needless to say, and I think they should absolutely run schemes in which he is comfortable/excels in. 

 

2. You just said it- the bills run schemes in which matches that personnel. Well that personnel and scheme they ran resulted in what, the 2nd or 3rd ranked offence in the NFL? And thats with Josh playing with a  shoulder injury for multiples games and their WR2 being injured for the majority of the year.

 

So my question to you is. Why would you want to change that? lol. And that doesn't even speak to the financial side of things and trading assets to get a player like ertz. 

He is making 11 million right now  lol or somewhere in that range- eagles are going trade him not release him- Sure they may take some salary, but that's why i said 8-11 mil.

 

The reason the Bills got crushed by the chiefs was because a variety of issues.

 

1. The couldn't run against super soft boxes

2. The o line got blown up all game

3. The Wrs were injured and ineffective.,

4. Josh didn't have his best game.

 

8M cap hit for the teams that trades for him and the Eagles may very well release him.

 

regarding the reasons we got crushed.  1 and 3 are the same reason.  The WRs were ineffective, partly because they were hobbled, partly because the chiefs weren’t worried about the RBs or Knox and played dime all game.  One way to pull a team out of dime?  Play 2 TE sets like the bucs did.  We couldn’t play 2TE sets because we only had one TE threat (that KC obviously didn’t see as a threat) on the roster. 
 

I get your point and I agree with it to an extent.  I just think that there are several ways to skin a cat and having a dynamic 2TE set would do our offense wonders and create problems for opposing DCs

[HappyDays]

Interesting development:

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Thank you for your detailed post. Here is what I will say though.

 

1. They are going to be paying Allen somewhere in the 40 mil range- whether they extend him this year or next remains to be seen- So in saying that, he is the franchise guy needless to say, and I think they should absolutely run schemes in which he is comfortable/excels in. 

 

2. You just said it- the bills run schemes in which matches that personnel. Well that personnel and scheme they ran resulted in what, the 2nd or 3rd ranked offence in the NFL? And thats with Josh playing with a  shoulder injury for multiples games and their WR2 being injured for the majority of the year.

 

So my question to you is. Why would you want to change that? lol. And that doesn't even speak to the financial side of things and trading assets to get a player like ertz. 

 

I'm not in favor of Ertz myself.  Thought I made that pretty clear elsewhere.  I AM in favor of upgrading at TE and at OL.

 

As defenses see what a team does, they evolve to stop it.  Then the offense needs to evolve a counter-punch.  If being the 3rd best team in the league falling to maybe 6 or 7 the following season is good enough for you, I guess there's no need to change a thing.  Doubt Beane and McDermott see it that way, though.

 

Example, look at the Ravens top-scoring offense of 2019.  The 49ers, Bills and then the Titans laid down a blueprint on how to limit and contain it.   Now not every team had the Jimmies and Joes to pull it off.  But the strategy was out there.  As a result, the Ravens struggled more on offense in 2020.  It's not like they sucked, they were 7th in the league or something, but passing yards and TDs dropped and picks crept up.

 

The reason that you change and evolve is that the NFL is a constant arms race.   Just to stay in the same place, a team has to evolve and improve.  Any gaps in the offensive game become hooks for a defense to exploit.   It was pretty well known by the end of the season that the Bills didn't have run-blocking that could succeed against a good DL, and that basically our WR could be shut down by physical press man coverage or taken away by bracketing. 

 

So the Bills need counter-measures.  Two of the obvious counter measures are an effective run game that can force teams out of dime coverage, and effective TE play (Knox can be taken away by physical coverage too).

In NFL football terms, Josh is only a grade-school kid, or maybe in middle-school now.  Do you give attention to what your middle-schooler is comfortable with?  Sure.  But do you also ask them to continue to grow and develop mentally and physically?  You betcha!  If you've followed any of the great long-term QB - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, even Manning - what they were comfortable with their 3rd or 4th year was a smaller vocabulary than they eventually wound up using. 

 

Also, it may be a point that coaches have decades of football experience, and that handing over offensive design to a guy with 3-4 years in the league or even 8 years in the league (Wilson) is not Best Practice.  Take input, ask him to work with you on play design, listen if he says "I'm really not comfortable with that" and try to figure out why and if it could be adapted, sure.  But stop evolving and run only what The Franchise is comfortable with in Year 4 - Bad Idea.

 

 

[mikemac2001]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Interesting development:

 

 

simple you ask what teams he would possibly like 

 

reach out to teams for compensation 

 

rework deal if needed and trade a pick 

 

3 sides agree on everything before deal is done 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

8M cap hit for the teams that trades for him and the Eagles may very well release him.

 

regarding the reasons we got crushed.  1 and 3 are the same reason.  The WRs were ineffective, partly because they were hobbled, partly because the chiefs weren’t worried about the RBs or Knox and played dime all game.  One way to pull a team out of dime?  Play 2 TE sets like the bucs did.  We couldn’t play 2TE sets because we only had one TE threat (that KC obviously didn’t see as a threat) on the roster. 
 

I get your point and I agree with it to an extent.  I just think that there are several ways to skin a cat and having a dynamic 2TE set would do our offense wonders and create problems for opposing DCs

I think we are in agreement that adding ertz would make their offence better and more versatile.

 

I just don’t think it would be wise to add a player who’s going to be making a lot of money , when there really isn’t really a big need at the position.

 

I am not saying Knox is the answer yet. But they did invest a fairly high pick on him and he’s still fairly raw, so I think you got to bet on him on year 3 that he’s going to have some big improvements. (Josh Allen for example taking the big step year 3 who was a raw player out of Wyoming )
 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by BillsFan130

[RichRiderBills]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/tight-end/

 

Even though im for it...to support the notion Ertz should not be traded for...check this list out. Most of the top paid TEs in the league will be available. 

 

Either way Ertz should be restructured. 

 

When looked at, Ertz is overpriced...i think letting him restructure to 3 years 18 million with some cash up front is more in line. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[Simon Says]

I don't see  Beane paying  that much for a TE,certainly not giving up draft picks. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lower-priced free agent ,plus a rookie. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Do you really want to spend 8-11 million on a player who would basically be a luxury and not a "need" though?

 

1) We aren't spending $8-11M on Ertz.  His salary for 2021 is $8.5M.  That is what we would pay, unless we negotiate an extension with him which would likely lower his cap hit, not raise it.

2) You may think a good TE that defenses actually worry about is a "luxury" but various things Beane said about "we never got to the point where other teams said we've got to stop their TE from going off" may indicate he thinks improvement at TE is a need.

 

4 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

 (Darryl williams or replacement, Felciano or replacement, pass rusher, potential CB2, potential milano replacement)

 

Yep, we've got other holes.

[ngbills]

Look at the TE's in the last few super bowls - Kelce, Gronk, Kitttle, Ertz, Hooper. The majority of super bowl teams have a TE that is huge part of the offense. In todays NFL you need a TE. 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Look at the TE's in the last few super bowls - Kelce, Gronk, Kitttle, Ertz, Hooper. The majority of super bowl teams have a TE that is huge part of the offense. In todays NFL you need a TE. 

 

Yep.  RT, pass rusher, and Tight End are what I’d spend money on this offseason.  The other needs I’d fill in with low priced vets and draft picks.  

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I think we are in agreement that adding ertz would make their offence better and more versatile.

 

I just don’t think it would be wise to add a player who’s going to be making a lot of money , when there really isn’t really a big need at the position.

 

I am not saying Knox is the answer yet. But they did invest a fairly high pick on him and he’s still fairly raw, so I think you got to bet on him on year 3 that he’s going to have some big improvements. (Josh Allen for example taking the big step year 3 who was a raw player out of Wyoming )
 

 

I guess this is where we differ.  I think we need another threat at TE for the offense to continue to evolve and change things up while still having the ability to go 4-5 wide. We couldn’t go 2TE because our TE1 was average and out TE2 was actually OL8.  If we’re counting on Sweeney or Gilliam to become that threat opposite knox, we should probably just scrap the idea of being effective running 2TE sets.

 

After much thought, I believe that that TE is in fact a need for our offense to continue to evolve effectively. I believe that how we address the OL and TE this offseason are even more crucial than pass rush.  We can’t be cocky about our offense and think “our offense was great last season, it’ll be great again in 21”.  It might very well be great again, but it won’t matter if we don’t have our first Td drive in the AFCCG til there’s 4 mins left in the game.  
 

For those that will chime in regarding pass rush being the most important, look at what the Bucs did to the chiefs. I agree pass rush is incredibly important.  I don’t believe we’ll be playing kcs OL consisting of all backups playing out of position.  Beating the chiefs will be more about outscoring them, as opposed to shutting them down.  Our O must improve and evolve.

[DJB]

Hes old, washed and overpaid. 

 

No thanks. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

Hes old, washed and overpaid. 

 

No thanks. 

 

He's younger than Cole Beasley who just had the best season of his career. When did 30 years old become "washed" in the NFL? Maybe for running backs. Most other positions can make it to 33 before they see that decline. Ertz has been in the league a long time which means he knows how to make himself available to the QB and adjust to the ball. That's something we didn't get from our TEs last year.

[BillsFan130]

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

1) We aren't spending $8-11M on Ertz.  His salary for 2021 is $8.5M.  That is what we would pay, unless we negotiate an extension with him which would likely lower his cap hit, not raise it.

2) You may think a good TE that defenses actually worry about is a "luxury" but various things Beane said about "we never got to the point where other teams said we've got to stop their TE from going off" may indicate he thinks improvement at TE is a need.

 

 

Yep, we've got other holes.

I really don’t think having a great TE is the missing piece to the offence.

 

Would it help? Sure but at what expense? Letting darryl Williams walk? Not worth it IMO.

 

They got to be able to run the ball against light boxes and they just couldn’t do that last year and the chiefs exposed them On it.

 

When the other team has 6 dbs all game and you can’t run again 5-6 man light boxes, that is by far the biggest issue.

[BillsFan130]

30 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I guess this is where we differ.  I think we need another threat at TE for the offense to continue to evolve and change things up while still having the ability to go 4-5 wide. We couldn’t go 2TE because our TE1 was average and out TE2 was actually OL8.  If we’re counting on Sweeney or Gilliam to become that threat opposite knox, we should probably just scrap the idea of being effective running 2TE sets.

 

After much thought, I believe that that TE is in fact a need for our offense to continue to evolve effectively. I believe that how we address the OL and TE this offseason are even more crucial than pass rush.  We can’t be cocky about our offense and think “our offense was great last season, it’ll be great again in 21”.  It might very well be great again, but it won’t matter if we don’t have our first Td drive in the AFCCG til there’s 4 mins left in the game.  
 

For those that will chime in regarding pass rush being the most important, look at what the Bucs did to the chiefs. I agree pass rush is incredibly important.  I don’t believe we’ll be playing kcs OL consisting of all backups playing out of position.  Beating the chiefs will be more about outscoring them, as opposed to shutting them down.  Our O must improve and evolve.

Fair enough buddy. While I agree on some things you say, I differ on a few so we’ll have to agree to disagree on those.

 

I Appreciate your well thought out and respectful posts 👍

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Fair enough buddy. While I agree on some things you say, I differ on a few so we’ll have to agree to disagree on those.

 

I Appreciate your well thought out and respectful posts 👍

Like wise.  👊