NFL Draft Success - Past 4 years

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

I'm actually a fan of beanes drafts I'm just stating that people will bring up the fact we might spend 3 2nd round picks on rbs.  When we could have done alot elsewhere with three 2nd round picks.

 

And you say we don't have holes, but the rest of the nfl sees our RB squad as one of the worst in the league. Our CB2 situation is not ideal. Our edge rush is not good enough. And we are probably losing Milano. Possibly lose smoke. Beane is a good GM and I trust him to make it work. But to say we just need "upgrades" is being in denial.

 

 

again your off topic. we are just discussing drafts. why is this so hard for you?

[Norcalbillsfan]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

again your off topic. we are just discussing drafts. why is this so hard for you?

How is talking about where we need to  improve the team through the draft and where we haven't improved through the draft off topic from a thread called "draft success"? I apologize if I confused you in some way.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Limeaid said:

IMO only good coaches he hired were DC Leslie Frazier and Linebackers coach Bob Babich.

 

 

Hiring a great staff off the bat is hard for a first time Head Coach, especially when you are taking a job like Buffalo. There were definitely some swings and misses. I'd say Rob Boras (still on staff) was a good hire as tight ends coach. I know he had a pretty unsuccessful stint as a coordinator with the Rams but he is a pretty well respected Tight Ends coach. And he did hire Chad Hall who is the bright young star on our staff as an offensive assistant in his first proper coaching gig.  There are a couple of other guys still on staff too from that group, Kelly Skipper and Marc Lubiak. Overall our staff is definitely stronger now.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Rick Dennison... the guy who was like his 8th choice for OC? It’s documented that he was not the primary target. He wanted Nagy or Childress amongst others and Reid promoted them a year prior to co-coordinators to block a lateral move. Not every person you want to hire is immediately available nor are the just allowed to get up and come work with you when you request it. 

 

Terrifyingly his first choice was Mike McCoy. Who went to Denver instead and didn't even last a season before being fired. Then went to Arizona and didn't even last a season before being fired. Dennison is a run of the mill OC but we dodged a bullet when McCoy turned us down. 

 

I believe Childress was his second choice and as you say Reid promoted him. I think Dennison was their third option. And I think Rick did an okay job. He did what Rick Dennison always does. He ran a very vanilla variety of the Shanahan stretch zone and it gave them enough of a run game to overcome mediocre Quarterback play and win them 9 games. And then the Bills saw a chance to upgrade and moved on to a guy they trusted to come in and develop a rookie and that has worked out pretty well.

6 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Will Beanes draft grade go down if we go rb round 2 three years in a row? For 1 draft it's not too much capital, but 3 years in a row when we have so many holes? Not a beane hater just devils advocate.

 

Singletary and Moss were round 3 not round 2. Now I agree they are pretty unremarkable players but it was 3rd round picks not 2nd.

[JGMcD2]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Terrifyingly his first choice was Mike McCoy. Who went to Denver instead and didn't even last a season before being fired. Then went to Arizona and didn't even last a season before being fired. Dennison is a run of the mill OC but we dodged a bullet when McCoy turned us down. 

 

I believe Childress was his second choice and as you say Reid promoted him. I think Dennison was their third option. And I think Rick did an okay job. He did what Rick Dennison always does. He ran a very vanilla variety of the Shanahan stretch zone and it gave them enough of a run game to overcome mediocre Quarterback play and win them 9 games. And then the Bills saw a chance to upgrade and moved on to a guy they trusted to come in and develop a rookie and that has worked out pretty well.

Thanks for clarifying... there were some reports that Childress, Nagy and evening Greg Olson (yikes) were the lead candidate. I know Ken Dorsey interviewed too. 
 

I guess all I was getting at is it’s kind of bizarre to jump all over McDermott for upgrading his staff over time and different coaches become available. Everyone has different length contracts, teams value certain coaches differently, etc. You can’t just pluck everyone you want whenever you want. I do think he did a good job identifying some younger coaches that he eventually promoted into more prominent roles over time... that’s a good thing. He’s developed some of his own coaches in his time here and that’s encouraging. 
 

Chad Hall now the WR coach

Bobby Babich now the S coach 

Jim Salgado now the Nickel DB coach 

Marc Lubick now assistant WR coach and game management... which just shows McDermott’s commitment to getting better because his game management left something to be desired so he appointed someone to help him with that in some capacity on game day. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Hiring a great staff off the bat is hard for a first time Head Coach, especially when you are taking a job like Buffalo. There were definitely some swings and misses. I'd say Rob Boras (still on staff) was a good hire as tight ends coach. I know he had a pretty unsuccessful stint as a coordinator with the Rams but he is a pretty well respected Tight Ends coach. And he did hire Chad Hall who is the bright young star on our staff as an offensive assistant in his first proper coaching gig.  There are a couple of other guys still on staff too from that group, Kelly Skipper and Marc Lubiak. Overall our staff is definitely stronger now.

 

Curious about this perception.  Say more?

 

The TE group is one on the team that appears to be perennially underperforming expectations.  Now that might be on the players, but....

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Curious about this perception.  Say more?

 

The TE group is one on the team that appears to be perennially underperforming expectations.  Now that might be on the players, but....

 

He is really well respected in the league. Think the numbers his tight ends put up in Chicago when he was a position coach there were pretty good and I remember a couple of the talking heads defending him when was struggling as OC in LA saying he is a really good position coach deserves his chance etc. I am not saying he is good, I have no idea whether he is or not, but he has coached tight ends in the league since 2004 except for his two years as OC with the Rams. 

 

[PrimeTime101]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is really well respected in the league. Think the numbers his tight ends put up in Chicago when he was a position coach there were pretty good and I remember a couple of the talking heads defending him when was struggling as OC in LA saying he is a really good position coach deserves his chance etc. I am not saying he is good, I have no idea whether he is or not, but he has coached tight ends in the league since 2004 except for his two years as OC with the Rams. 

 

All do respect and the respect he gets around the league does not = production.  but thats just me

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I wasn’t referring to the last 4 years. I was referring in general to the difference makers on the Chiefs.... Kelce, Hill, Mahomes, Chris Jones, Clark, Mathieu, even CEH. Specifically Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill.

 

All I can tell you about heat maps is some genius tried to convince us the Bills defense wasn’t all that bad in 2016 using “heat maps.” He got laughed off the forum. 

Okay.. so you’re upset with McDermott and Beane for not having more difference makers like KC? Thats your gripe...
 

But you’re leaving out that Kelce and Hill were drafted 4 and 2 years before Beane even arrived in Buffalo. Then throw in Clark, Mathieu and Chris Jones who were drafted in 2015, 2013 and 2016... also before Beane arrived in Buffalo. I’m not even going to entertain CEH as a difference maker - queue you telling me about how he ran all over Buffalo. So your ultimate point is McBeane are bad at their jobs for not jumping in their time machine and getting hired in Buffalo sooner... that’s what you’re telling me? 
 

Also you were referring to the last four years because your post said this specifically 

.. I don’t need charts, and WAR, and heat maps to tell me that the Bills have drafted solid contributors that past few years, but have not been getting true difference makers outside of say Josh Allen, Tre White, and Dion Dawkins(the last two were McD picks, not Beane). 

I value the “eye test” a hell of a lot more than analytics,  and the Bills got their asses handed to them against the Chiefs because they have too many ok contributors and not enough true difference makers like the AFC Champs. 
 

Maybe you should use a timeline or something to sort this all out... but that’s technically a chart and you don’t need those... 

 

As for heat maps... you know nothing about heat maps at all... other than one experience that I have no exposure to... which occurred 2 years before I even signed up on this forum... and use that as an insult against me? 
 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by JGMcD2

[PrimeTime101]

On 3/6/2021 at 10:23 AM, JGMcD2 said:

Lol... what did I say... no matter what you’re shown... you’re going to say you’re right. 

 

My methodology was not highly flawed... it’s definitely not perfect and it doesn’t have the same capabilities a model like PFF just created has...I made that very clear the minute I posted my initial analysis. Oddly enough it’s similar to an analysis PFF did last year that I just found linked at the top of the new article.. It was an attempt from someone to quantify something, rather than just behave off their biases. I know that’s a foreign concept to you. 
 

One guy decided to argue with me saying that surplus value isn’t a real thing... although oddly enough PFF mentions it routinely in that article. So if that’s you’re barometer for things being “highly flawed” sure. I know surplus value is a foreign concept to many, but folks that work in pro sports know all about it. 
 

You just proved to me that you have zero desire to actually learn something new, you’d rather just say you’re right... because nowhere in PFF’s methodology did they mention anything about using playing time or salary in their model. Absolutely nowhere was playing time or salary factored in. Funny enough playing time and salary wasn’t factored into my model either... 
 

Let me continue to hold your hand and show you what PFF said... hits on high draft picks are valued higher and hits on more valuable positions are valued higher...

 

A 90th-percentile hit in the top 10 is obviously much more impactful for a franchise than a 90th-percentile hit in the seventh round, as the former would generate almost 2 WAR over four years, while the latter separates from his peers by simply making the roster and generating roughly 0.2 WAR over four years.

This sounds intuitive, and it’s supported by hard data: When correlating the average percentile of a team's top-100 draft picks over the last four years to point differential in a season, the result is much larger than when we do the same with draft picks beyond the top 100. The New Orleans Saints turn out to be the top team in terms of draft consistency, mostly because their busts came in later rounds — almost entirely inconsequential for a franchise. This explains why the Saints won the NFC South four times straight after going 7-9 three years straight before 2017.

 

 

As I have already mentioned, we described draft success as teams might think about it. When a guard at No. 6 becomes a three-time All-Pro player after three years, it’s as good a pick as one could imagine.

However, since offensive guards have relatively low value compared to other positions, Nelson lands in “only” the 93rd percentile when compared to the full distribution of all players selected in his range. Of course, this is still exceptional, but it’s a small difference and illustrates that the absolute ceiling for a top-10 guard seems to be the 93rd percentile. After all, it's hard to imagine a better guard than Quenton Nelson. When we measure draft success by comparing each draft pick (non-quarterbacks) to the distribution of outcomes of all players drafted in the same range, we reward the selection of valuable positions. When doing this, we get a pretty good impression of why the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl.

 

If you’re gonna sit here and call me out... get your facts straight. You’re the type of guy that reads a headline and pretends he knows the whole story. Although I don’t even know if that’s true because you couldn’t read the title on a graph. 

This was the original post trying to explain it to you

On 3/6/2021 at 12:02 PM, ScottLaw said:

No need to hold my hand dude.... I don’t need charts, and WAR, and heat maps to tell me that the Bills have drafted solid contributors that past few years, but have not been getting true difference makers outside of say Josh Allen, Tre White, and Dion Dawkins(the last two were McD picks, not Beane). 
 

I value the “eye test” a hell of a lot more than analytics,  and the Bills got their asses handed to them against the Chiefs because they have too many ok contributors and not enough true difference makers like the AFC Champs. 

you named 3 difference makers here.. One could argue others but that's 3 and go off on a rant about the chiefs.

On 3/6/2021 at 12:52 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

then Eye this out. 

 

Tyreek Hill- 5th round draft pick. No one expected Hill to be what he is today

Travis Kelce was 2013.

Eric Fisher T drafted 2013

Chris Jones Drafted DT 2016 great pick

Frank Clark DE Drafted 2015

Tyrann Mathieu 2013

 

And you have Mahomes.. We wont get into that conversation again.

 

But these are there core stars? right? There PB selections? are any of these the last 4 years?

 

So lets take a closer look at your "eye test". I am going to post the picks and where they are at from the last 4 years? Cause that's what OP said.

 

2017

They have Mahomes 

Tanoh Kpassagnon had one sack last year with 28 combined tackles.

Kareem Hunt is in Clev. a product of an amazing running team.

the rest are producing very little or not even in KC 

 

2018

Speaks has shown 0

Nnadi turning out to be solid DT

After this other then there ST returner Smith there is nothing goonzd

 

2019

Hardman has been a solid WR.

Thornhil represents a solid S

The rest backups or zero's

 

2020

Helair IS a decent at best RB and a product of an amazing passing offense

The rest are back up, rotational or zero players.

 

Other then Mahomes... please for the love of god tell me how KC has done better then us drafting the last 4 years?

 

Key words

 

FOUR YEARS

BIG PICTURE

 

we have done better

Then I spent lots of time explaining this to you.

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I wasn’t referring to the last 4 years. I was referring in general to the difference makers on the Chiefs.... Kelce, Hill, Mahomes, Chris Jones, Clark, Mathieu, even CEH. Specifically Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill.

 

All I can tell you about heat maps is some genius tried to convince us the Bills defense wasn’t all that bad in 2016 using “heat maps.” He got laughed off the forum. 

And now all of the sudden you want to say you were off topic the whole time not referring to the last 4 years without explaining that and you want to dip into 2016 witch not the year on the OP topic?

 

lol are you serious man? get back on topic for our sanity cause your going to put us in the looney bin.

[JGMcD2]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I said they got their asses handed to them by the Chiefs because they don’t have enough difference makers.... not like the AFC Champs. Regardless of the timeline. Perhaps they’ll get to that point this season or next.  Perhaps they won’t. I never said they were bad at their jobs, I simply said they need to do a better job of drafting difference makers.

 

I have nothing against heat maps, I have a problem with someone telling me something is black when it’s clearly white.....I’m sorry if you took that as insult towards you. 

 

 

 

Right, but you made the implication that the Chiefs have done an outstanding job the last 4 years getting difference makers through the draft... because this is a thread about the draft. They have more difference makers of course... they’ve been at this roster building thing a little bit longer... that matters... 
 

I know there are some... but objectively what teams have drafted more difference makers than Buffalo dating back to 2017? How many difference makers should a team be drafting per year? 
 

Indianapolis, Baltimore and New Orleans stand out... but who else? 
 

First we probably have to agree on the definition of what a difference maker is... in my mind it’s a player at a core position (QB, LT, WR, DE, CB) that excels in all situations... clearly can take over portions of the game on their own... or it’s a player at a position of less importance (TE, LB, G, DT, S) that is clearly elite and can change the outcome of a game.

Let’s agree on a definition first....

 

I would consider Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen a difference maker... I would not consider Baker Mayfield a difference maker. I would consider Myles Garrett a difference maker... I would not consider Montez Sweat a difference maker. Travis Kelce is a difference maker... so is Kittle... Gesicki is not. 
 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Let’s agree on a definition first....

 

I would consider Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen a difference maker... I would not consider Baker Mayfield a difference maker. I would consider Myles Garrett a difference maker... I would not consider Montez Sweat a difference maker. Travis Kelce is a difference maker... so is Kittle... Gesicki is not. 

 

Agree with your principle, not sure I totally agree on Montez Sweat, if he isn't a difference maker he is fairly darn close. I think he is a darn good football player. Agree with the other examples. 

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Honestly not sure....and I’m just referring to playmakers/difference makers overall. Not necessarily from the draft. Allen is absolutely a difference maker. He’s elite. 

 

The Bills are a good team with a solid roster. That goes without saying. But they are outmatched when you compare them to the rosters/teams of the Chiefs and Bucs. Those two teams are loaded. They need to find a way to get to that level if they are going to win a Championship. 

Well you were referring to a draft because this is a thread about drafting players... and you specifically said...

 

19 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

No need to hold my hand dude.... I don’t need charts, and WAR, and heat maps to tell me that the Bills have drafted solid contributors that past few years, but have not been getting true difference makers outside of say Josh Allen, Tre White, and Dion Dawkins(the last two were McD picks, not Beane). 

And wouldn’t it be a good idea to have an understanding, context perhaps of how other teams draft and how many difference makers they’ve drafted over the same time period... before you make declarations about how many difference makers the Bills have drafted since 2017 and how that number of difference makers isn’t acceptable? You can only be good or bad at something by comparison.  
 

Ironically... I agree with your last point... they do need to find a way to get to the level of play makers the Chiefs and Bucs have... you know the best remedy for that? Time... Reid has been calling the shots in KC since 2013... Licht has been doing the same in TB since 2014. You can’t just snap your fingers and make difference makers appear everywhere. That’s the whole point of all of this... this regime is doing it as well as championship caliber organizations... they might even be outpacing them. 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree with your principle, not sure I totally agree on Montez Sweat, if he isn't a difference maker he is fairly darn close. I think he is a darn good football player. Agree with the other examples. 

Absolutely... he’s really freaking close in my opinion. That was also part of the reason I chose him... to illustrate the difference. You could probably make an argument he is, but also an argument he isn’t... that’s why I lean in the direction that he isn’t. IMO there are no questions asked about a true difference maker. 
 

You’re one of the best when it comes to the draft on TBD... where do the Bills stack up against other teams in drafting difference makers over the 4 year period this regime has been here? 

Edited March 8, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Absolutely... he’s really freaking close in my opinion. That was also part of the reason I chose him... to illustrate the difference. You could probably make an argument he is, but also an argument he isn’t... that’s why I lean in the direction that he isn’t. IMO there are no questions asked about a true difference maker. 
 

You’re one of the best when it comes to the draft on TBD... where do the Bills stack up against other teams in drafting difference makers over the 4 year period this regime has been here? 

 

I think Montez Sweat is to edge guys what Dion Dawkins is to left tackles. Really darn good but you can have that conversation both ways. For the purposes of this conversation I lean towards both being difference makers. 

 

I'd give the Bills three since 2017 - Tre, Dion and Josh. I think Edmunds and Oliver both have the talent to be but that needs to translate into more consistency on the field.

 

I'd give the Saints the same - all from that great '17 draft - Lattimore, Ramczyk and Kamara. 

 

The Ravens maybe 4 - Humphrey from the great '17 corner class and then Jackson, Orlando Brown and arguably Mark Andrews (though I think he is another of those borderline guys). 

 

Washington I might give 4 too - Young, McClaurin, Sweat and Allen (they have had the advantage of consistent early picks). 

 

49ers I'd say 3 - Kittle, Warner, Bosa

 

So the Bills are in that top group but Brandon Beane I would say has found 1 - it is the most important 1, sure. But I want either for Edmunds or Oliver to breakout to that level or form him to hit on one this year. One more difference maker, especially defensive front 7, would put this team over the top.

[Rico]

22 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I wasn’t referring to the last 4 years. I was referring in general to the difference makers on the Chiefs.... Kelce, Hill, Mahomes, Chris Jones, Clark, Mathieu, even CEH. Specifically Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill.

 

All I can tell you about heat maps is some genius tried to convince us the Bills defense wasn’t all that bad in 2016 using “heat maps.” He got laughed off the forum. 

The Big Cat.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Rico said:

The Big Cat.

 

Never came back did he? I mean I was no Tyrod fan but blaming Tyrod's 3rd down ratio for Rex being a freaking clown was a stretch.

[Rico]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Never came back did he? I mean I was no Tyrod fan but blaming Tyrod's 3rd down ratio for Rex being a freaking clown was a stretch.

I don't think he ever did come back, but I wish he would! Heat maps FTW!

[Rico]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Pretty sure his argument was Rex was a good coach and coaching the defense effectively and used heat maps to justify it.... historic thread. 

The heat maps don't lie.

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Montez Sweat is to edge guys what Dion Dawkins is to left tackles. Really darn good but you can have that conversation both ways. For the purposes of this conversation I lean towards both being difference makers. 

 

I'd give the Bills three since 2017 - Tre, Dion and Josh. I think Edmunds and Oliver both have the talent to be but that needs to translate into more consistency on the field.

 

I'd give the Saints the same - all from that great '17 draft - Lattimore, Ramczyk and Kamara. 

 

The Ravens maybe 4 - Humphrey from the great '17 corner class and then Jackson, Orlando Brown and arguably Mark Andrews (though I think he is another of those borderline guys). 

 

Washington I might give 4 too - Young, McClaurin, Sweat and Allen (they have had the advantage of consistent early picks). 

 

49ers I'd say 3 - Kittle, Warner, Bosa

 

So the Bills are in that top group but Brandon Beane I would say has found 1 - it is the most important 1, sure. But I want either for Edmunds or Oliver to breakout to that level or form him to hit on one this year. One more difference maker, especially defensive front 7, would put this team over the top.

This is about where I’m at with things as well... so basically Buffalo has done things as well as, if not better than every team in the NFL... yet many are still griping that it’s not good enough... it doesn’t matter if it’s the eye test or numbers.. or a combo of both... 

 

Great write up! Thinking about it more... I do agree with your Sweat/Dawkins assessment. A poor example on my end then! 

Edited March 9, 2021 by JGMcD2