NFL Draft Success - Past 4 years

[JGMcD2]

Colts Twitter put this up today. Curious to see how it aligns with my analysis that I did a few months back. To the naked eye, it looks like most teams remain in the same bin in this analysis that they did in my analysis.... for all of the Beane is a bad drafter folks and the “you’re an idiot your numbers don’t make sense” folks. 
 

Link to my follow up analysis... 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by JGMcD2

[H2o]

I don't know. I've heard on here many times about how Beane sucks in the draft and has only hit on Josh Allen. The people on here have to know it all, right?

[Reed83HOF]

20 minutes ago, H2o said:

I don't know. I've heard on here many times about how Beane sucks in the draft and has only hit on Josh Allen. The people on here have to know it all, right?

🤣

 

This board is almost as bad as the people who call WGR and get on air to offer the worst opinions ever

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Reed83HOF

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

🤣

 

This board is almost as bad as the people who call WGR and get on air to offer the worst opinions ever

 

 

Actually I have to give it to WGR callers for worst opinions.

[MJS]

Nice job. I really liked your analysis before and this other analysis has some similarities to your results.

[Maynard]

3rd best? I’ll take it!!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6-10, 4-12, 6-10, 6-10, 

6-10, 9-7, 8-8, 7-9, 

 

9-7, 6-10, 10-6, 13-3.  3 playoff seasons. 

 

🤔

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-today-buffalo-s-best-draft-decision-in-the-past-five-years
 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

I don't know. I've heard on here many times about how Beane sucks in the draft and has only hit on Josh Allen. The people on here have to know it all, right?

[RoyBatty is alive]

24 minutes ago, Maynard said:

3rd best? I’ll take it!!

So happens to be our position in the NFL this year.

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

8 hours ago, H2o said:

I don't know. I've heard on here many times about how Beane sucks in the draft and has only hit on Josh Allen. The people on here have to know it all, right?

AFC Title game inside of 3 years.  Nuf said about McBeanes.   Next question?  

[hondo in seattle]

10 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Colts Twitter put this up today. Curious to see how it aligns with my analysis that I did a few months back. To the naked eye, it looks like most teams remain in the same bin in this analysis that they did in my analysis.... for all of the Beane is a bad drafter folks and the “you’re an idiot your numbers don’t make sense” folks. 
 

Link to my follow up analysis... 

 

 

 

Great work.  Like your methodology.

 

Good to see you that both methods have Bills among the best and the Pats in the bottom half.  

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Can anyone actually explain what these numbers mean? Or do you just put a chart with numbers on it and say “see, I told you!”

It’s not my fault you don’t understand... and I’m not about to explain it all over again here when it’s already been done in another thread... that’s why the thread was included. 

 

You can either read my methodology in the other thread and that will explain what those numbers mean... or you can read the title on the damn graph in the Tweet and that will explain what those numbers mean. Something tells me that regardless of what any data tells you, you’re just the type to think you’re always right. 

 

Do you really need me to hold your hand? 

 

EDIT: I’ll regretfully hold your hand and attach the article explaining the tweet too... I did this really difficult thing where I googled the title of the graph and the first result was the article. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

Edited March 6, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Malazan]

12 hours ago, H2o said:

I don't know. I've heard on here many times about how Beane sucks in the draft and has only hit on Josh Allen. The people on here have to know it all, right?

 

The Bills were one the absolute worst teams in the league last season and only beat the very worst crap tier teams all season long so how you can say they draft well if they suck?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Edited March 6, 2021 by jeremy2020

[GunnerBill]

On the table in this thread I think the top 12 feel kind of instinctively right. Without having done any of this number crunching and trying to assign value to things if you said to me "who are some of the teams you think have drafted well recently?" The Colts, the Saints, the Ravens, the Buccs, the Bills, the Chiefs, the WFT and the Titans would all be on my list. When I get down to #13 though and the Atlanta Falcons feature I start to ask "what is going on?" They have drafted basically 2 good players in four years. Calvin Ridley who is a very good receiver and Chris Lindstrom who is  "solid" guard who they overdrafted with the 14th pick. Other than that it is bust city... Takk McCinley, Isaiah Oliver, Kaleb McGary, Deadrin Senat and while it is early to completely give up on him AJ Terrell was awful as a rookie. Now if you were going back to 2016 that would make sense because they smashed the '16 draft out of the park with Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, Austin Hooper and De'Vondre Campbell in the first four rounds. But since then they have drafted appallingly. 

[machine gun kelly]

To the OP, thank you finding a creating some data to support what the eyeballs see in Beane does a nice job in the draft, as well as McD if you include 2017.  It’s one of the main reasons I’m confident he’ll find some gems this year although even more challenging as we are picking at the bottom of the draft order for most rounds.

 

One thing I found interesting in the table is a false assumption.  You would think the teams that have perennially excellent records would be picking towards the bottom of the draft, so you would assume they were not as good in the draft.  It’s really the opposite.  Outside of the Packers, Pats and Hawks who ranked 21-23rd, most of the top teams are also very successful teams.  Basically supporting these teams not only draft well, but really well as they pick later in the draft.

 

So OP, the next time some knucklehead posts again how bad McBeane is in the draft, feel free to post this reply over and over gain.  If you don’t, I will.  Good job bud.  The issue for me is not a critical eye on the flaws of the team as every team has flaws.  The no duh is we didn’t run well, we are flawed at TE, we haven’t found a good rush with four.  Those are well founded, but the remarks that just aren’t accurate in anyway is what I think annoys some.

[PrimeTime101]

First of all.. We can or should all agree, no matter how many stats, graphics, videos and analytics are shoved towards a recruiting team then the gm, the draft is still rolling the dice. Drop crystal Ball stuff out of your heads, get the "I could of done better ism" out of your heads and just pay attention to one thing. We got solid draft picks that have worked out at a better rate then many teams.

 

Yep you were right about one player that year but got others wrong. none of that matters. All that matters is that our draft picks as a whole. In general... are working out better then other teams. As a whole.

 

OP did a good job here making us look at the big picture.

 

GG
 

7 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

To the OP, thank you finding a creating some data to support what the eyeballs see in Beane does a nice job in the draft, as well as McD if you include 2017.  It’s one of the main reasons I’m confident he’ll find some gems this year although even more challenging as we are picking at the bottom of the draft order for most rounds.

 

One thing I found interesting in the table is a false assumption.  You would think the teams that have perennially excellent records would be picking towards the bottom of the draft, so you would assume they were not as good in the draft.  It’s really the opposite.  Outside of the Packers, Pats and Hawks who ranked 21-23rd, most of the top teams are also very successful teams.  Basically supporting these teams not only draft well, but really well as they pick later in the draft.

 

So OP, the next time some knucklehead posts again how bad McBeane is in the draft, feel free to post this reply over and over gain.  If you don’t, I will.  Good job bud.  The issue for me is not a critical eye on the flaws of the team as every team has flaws.  The no duh is we didn’t run well, we are flawed at TE, we haven’t found a good rush with four.  Those are well founded, but the remarks that just aren’t accurate in anyway is what I think annoys some.

and you might of said it better then what I just posted. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Outside of the Packers, Pats and Hawks who ranked 21-23rd, most of the top teams are also very successful teams.  Basically supporting these teams not only draft well, but really well as they pick later in the draft.

 

 

The Seahawks are the hardest to fathom. They are consistently bad first round drafters. They have not had a single first round pick make it to a 2nd contract with the team in 10 years. Earl Thomas who was their second first round pick in 2010 was the last and there are a number of flat out busts among the remainder. John Schneider has been better as a rule finding guys who can play later in the draft, but the reality is Russell Wilson has been covering up a lot of flaws on that team. If they get off to a slow start one year and go say 1-3 I think it could all unravel pretty fast there.

 

Green Bay have not drafted well for while now, a point I made a lot in the Jordan Love debates. There are a lot of moves to slam the Pack for before focusing on them taking a shot at the future in the most important position on the field. Their propensity to overdraft crappy DBs has been especially interesting. 

 

New England's drafting has also gone to pot. They had a 7 or 8 year stretch of fantastic drafting that built the team around Brady to make that second era of Superbowl runs. But the reason Tom looked around last year and thought "I'm off" is because that supply line has tapered off. Other than oline and secondary there is very little talent on that roster. 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Colts Twitter put this up today. Curious to see how it aligns with my analysis that I did a few months back. To the naked eye, it looks like most teams remain in the same bin in this analysis that they did in my analysis.... for all of the Beane is a bad drafter folks and the “you’re an idiot your numbers don’t make sense” folks. 
 

Link to my follow up analysis... 

 

 

 

 

Hadn't seen your original post. Interesting stuff.

 

Both of these fit very well with what I've seen on the field. I'd have guessed a bit further down but not much. 

 

Thanks.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Hadn't seen your original post. Interesting stuff.

 

Both of these fit very well with what I've seen on the field. I'd have guessed a bit further down but not much. 

 

Thanks.

 

Yea my eye test on the Bills I'd have them top 10 but second half of that top 10. If you include the 17 draft then top 5 makes more sense. That White, Dawkins, Milano class is one of the best drafts in Bills history (maybe the best non-Polian draft?)

[Thurman#1]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Seahawks are the hardest to fathom. They are consistently bad first round drafters. They have not had a single first round pick make it to a 2nd contract with the team in 10 years. Earl Thomas who was their second first round pick in 2010 was the last and there are a number of flat out busts among the remainder. John Schneider has been better as a rule finding guys who can play later in the draft, but the reality is Russell Wilson has been covering up a lot of flaws on that team. If they get off to a slow start one year and go say 1-3 I think it could all unravel pretty fast there.

 

Green Bay have not drafted well for while now, a point I made a lot in the Jordan Love debates. There are a lot of moves to slam the Pack for before focusing on them taking a shot at the future in the most important position on the field. Their propensity to overdraft crappy DBs has been especially interesting. 

 

New England's drafting has also gone to pot. They had a 7 or 8 year stretch of fantastic drafting that built the team around Brady to make that second era of Superbowl runs. But the reason Tom looked around last year and thought "I'm off" is because that supply line has tapered off. Other than oline and secondary there is very little talent on that roster. 

 

 

Part of that - by no means all of it, but part of it - relates to the fact that in those last ten drafts they've only made six first round picks. They have traded them away, and generally done pretty well on the trades. But yeah, they're an interesting example.

 

And yeah, the Pats drafted so well for so many years, and then the wheels fell off lately. I so wonder what happened. Did they lose a draft guy or two, like an assistant GM at that point, or a director of scouting? I haven't kept track closely enough, but it's a remarkable turnaround.

Edited March 6, 2021 by Thurman#1