An Offseason Scenario I Put Together

[H2o]

This will be an offseason like no other we have seen in a long time. With the cap decreasing, where it had been growing exponentially over the last few years, it is going to make things a bit challenging. Beane will have to navigate this whole situation and really hit on the moves he makes, both in FA and the draft. I don't know if this is anything that he would do, but this is a scenario I put together. First thing we'll have to do is take care of things at OBD with whom we re-sign and whom we cut. Right now we only have about $3.3M in cap space at the current projection.  

 

Cuts:

John Brown - Saves almost $8M in cap. I would rather resign McKenzie for less than 1/3 of what Brown is making.

Mitch Morse - Saves $4.8M in cap. Morse has never really lived up to the contract, but he has been solid. Still, you don't know which head injury will be his last.

Quinton Jefferson - Saves $6.5M in cap. He was decent, but I think we an easily fill his production with someone else at a cheaper rate. 

Vernon Butler - Saves $6.8M in cap. I know he was played out of position at the 1-Tech, but we can get similar production for cheaper. 

Lee Smith - Saves $2.25M in cap. It really is time. Bye Lee. 

Mario Addison - Saves $6.16M in cap. He'll be 34 when the season gets going and he didn't add much to the defense last year. 

 

At this point we would be sitting with close to $38M in cap space and could save more money with a couple of restructures to Dawkins and possibly Tre. Let's just say Beane restructures both of them to give us another $8M-$10M and we end up with $46M-$48M in total cap space. 

 

Re-sign:

McKenzie - (3 yrs $6M w/ $4M gtd) It's not a big contract. I don't see him getting more anywhere else. I see value on ST and in the offense for us.

 

Feliciano - (3 yrs $19M w/ $13M gtd) Feliciano wants to be here and I think we want him back, but we won't overpay. This gives him an uptick and we move him to C. 

 

D. Williams - (3 yrs $24M w/ $16M gtd) Williams had a tremendous bounce-back year and was a key cog on our OL. This would be top 10 RT $$$. I think it's enough to get it done.

 

Ike Boettger - RFA Tender

 

Bojo - RFA tender

 

Wallace - RFA Tender

 

Winters - 2 yrs $3M w/ $1.5M gtd (I don't really like it that much either, but he is a cheap depth option that knows the offense)

 

Nsekhe - 2yrs $4M w/ $2M gtd 

 

FA:

Romeo Okwara - DE - (4 yrs $32M w/ $24M gtd) He would be an upgrade @ DE for a reasonable rate. Reminds me of a younger version of Jerry Hughes and he's only 25. He can also take over for Hughes after 2021. He had a solid 2018 with 7.5 sacks, but had a down 2019. Then in 2020 he put it all together getting 10 sacks, 31 pressures, 10 QB hurries, and 10 QB hits. He also plays the run well at the position and is effective from either side of the DL.

 

Jayon Brown - LB - (4 yrs $40M w/ $28M gtd) Imo, he's an upgrade over Milano though Milano will likely get more $$$ on the open market. He's just as good in coverage even though he may not be as fast. He's a better tackler than Milano and has more pop in his pads. He played an inside LB role in that Tennessee hybrid type defense, but would be able to handle the WLB responsibilities here with absolutely no drop off.  

 

Johnathan Hankins - DT - (3 yrs $12M w/ $8M gtd)We all know what was missing up front this past year. A run stuffing 1-Tech that would eat up blockers while making plays inside. Hankins plays well against the run, but offers no pass rush for the most part. He is at the least a heavy rotational back up to Star, but could very well end up the starter. Either way it would give us a nice rotation in the interior of the DL and allow Oliver to get after it. It would also allow us to keep our big guys up front rested not having to lean on one guy all of the time. 

 

Draft: 

1. Trevon Moehrig / S / TCU - The nation's Jim Thorpe Award winner in 2020. Moehrig is an athletic freak who can squat 600lbs, bench 400lbs, and runs a 40 in the 4.5's at 6'2" 210lbs. He has a lot of positional flexibility being able to play both FS and SS, but he will eventually take over for Hyde in this defense. We could run that three S look against pass heavy offenses as Moehrig can cover anyone on the field. He takes good angles and lowers the boom on ball carriers when given the opportunity. 

 

2. Daviyon Nixon / DT / Iowa - Another guy to get after it from the interior of the defense. Between Oliver, Hankins, Nixon, Star, Zimmer, and Phillips that interior is looking VERY capable of causing opposing offenses problems. Nixon plays with power, quickness, and uses his hands well when shedding blocks. 

 

3. Nico Collins / WR / Michigan - At 6'4" and 215lbs Collins is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Especially hard to handle when you add him to an offense that already has Diggs, Davis, and Beasley to account for. He is a true vertical threat that uses his body to shield defenders, has an extra gear when he gets in any kind of space, and can go up the ladder to snag any ball Josh would hang up for him. He opted out in 2020, but averaged 20 yds per reception in 2019 even with Shea Patterson as his QB. 

 

5a. Daelin Hayes / DE / Notre Dame - Hayes reminds me a bit of Shaq Lawson. He didn't have the college production of Lawson, but he also didn't have four 1st Rounders playing by his side up front either. He is decent at setting the edge and can be a 5-8 sack per year type of player on a rotational basis. (You knew I had to go with a ND player at least once in the draft ) 

 

5b. Garret Wallow / LB / TCU - Going back to the TCU well again for another defensive player. Wallow was a S who converted to LB in college. He does well in Zone coverage and blitzing off of the edge when his number is called. He's depth and a developmental WLB to add to our defense. 

 

6. Javian Hawkins / RB / Louisville - Hawkins is lightening in a bottle, but on the smallish side standing at 5'9". He has a good build for his size though at 195lbs. He's that home run threat type of guy though who can hit a seam and take the ball 80 yards to the house. His 40 time is expected to be between the low 4.4's to the high 4.3's and you can see on the tape he is that fast in pads. Not really used in the passing game at Louisville so he will need some refinement there, but he could end up being a steal this late in the draft. 

 

7a. Tommy Doyle / OT / Miami (OH) - A developmental prospect who has the ability to evolve into our swing OT off of the bench. He has good functional playing strength, but will need to grow in pass pro. 

 

7b. Jimmy Morrissey / C / Pitt - A developmental C prospect who started a bunch of games at Pitt. He was solid, but is more of a finesse player than one who plays with a mean streak. He still could provide depth along the OL. 

 

Our lineups next year would be as follows:

 

OL: Dawkins-Ford-Feliciano-Boettger-Williams (Starting) Bench - Nsekhe, Bates, Winters, Doyle or Morrissey

WR: Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Collins, McKenzie, Hodgins

RB: Singletary, Moss, Hawkins

TE: Knox, Sweeney, Gilliam(FB/TE)

QB: Allen, Webb or Fromm

 

DE: Hughes, Okwara, Epenesa, Hayes, D. Johnson

DT: Oliver, Star, Nixon, Hankins, Zimmer, Phillips

LB: Edmunds, Brown, Klein, Wallow, Dodson, Matakevic

S: Poyer, Hyde, Moehrig, J. Johnson, Neal

CB: White, Jackson, T. Johnson, Wallace, Lewis

K: Bass

P: Bojo

LS: Ferguson

 

I know there are things I didn't address which other people say would be necessary such as CB, but I believe an improved pass rush makes all of your CB's look better. I also love what Moehrig will bring to the table for this defense on the field and I think it gives us options. Okwara will be much better than Addison. Epenesa I think takes another step forward with a full offseason of work in the weight room to get his body right and working on his craft. Hayes and D. Johnson are capable of making plays. Throw Hankins/Star into the lineup as space eaters (which we didn't have last year) so Oliver, Nixon, and Zimmer can get after it up front. Now the interior looks like a strength as well. I think that Edmunds and Brown are also a better tandem than Edmunds and Milano. On top of that, for passing downs you can have Oliver and Nixon both on the field pushing the pocket from the middle. Backup QB is sketchy. TE still isn't solved also if you don't believe Knox will get any better, but you can only do so much with the cap this year. Overall I think this team keeps us contending for the AFC and a SB next year while starting to position us for when other roster turnover starts to take place. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by H2o

[colin]

i like it all with 3 concerns:

 

1) dunno if that LB fits our scheme.  he just might not be fleet footed enough, not certain but that's my feeling.

 

2) not improving at OG.  i think that's one position that we can improve on in a hurry that will pay dividends

 

3)  not improving RB and TE production.  I know you have us drafting a guy late, but i think we need an actual impact guy at either of those (or both, but i doubt that hard) positions. 

 

of course, if your rb is that kinda playmaker then this is a slam dunk, and the LB does fit, all good except i think we need a nasty OG.

[Brennan Huff]

We need a CB somewhere. Maybe even 2

[Matt_In_NH]

It looks like you also want to RFA tender Wallace?   What you suggest is about as much room as can be created.  I think reality will be somewhere in the middle, I thin k they will create 20 something million with some mix of what you suggested.  As far as projected contracts/FA's, I think for the first wave, numbers are always more than expected.  So there might not be as much buying power for some of the guys you recommend (Look at JJ Watt for example).  I would try to find bargains as teams are forced to waive guys....there will be a lot more available than they guys that are FA's now.  The "middle class" will have a lot of value this year.

 

And the Bills want to extend Josh this offseason....which they can do without affect this years cap much if at all.

[H2o]

8 minutes ago, mattynh said:

It looks like you also want to RFA tender Wallace? 

Yes. I always miss at least one thought initially when created threads like this. Thanks. 

[CincyBillsFan]

Great effort, thanks for doing this.

 

For my part I would keep Morse as he's a steady eddy vet presence on the line and doesn't cost that much.  But your scenario certainly works.

 

Collins from Michigan is interesting.  He was a solid WR who didn't benefit from very good QB play in 2019.

 

I'm hoping for more at RB and TE though Sweeney is a definite dark horse and Knox played well down the stretch.  It would be HUGE if Knox & Sweeney really stepped it up next season.  And there is a good possibility that they just might.

 

 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

They need a better  DE than Hayes if you are getting rid of Addison...(Murphy is gone too)  I think they would need to draft a better one earlier... I would take one in the first two rounds ... or keep Addison... see if he takes a pay cut..

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

They need a better  DE than Hayes if you are getting rid of Addison...(Murphy is gone too)  I think they would need to draft a better one earlier... I would take one in the first two rounds ... or keep Addison... see if he takes a pay cut..

Okwara is the immediate upgrade to Addison. 

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, H2o said:

Okwara is the immediate upgrade to Addison. 

Yes ... but a 5th round rookie as your 4th DE?

[H2o]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Yes ... but a 5th round rookie as your 4th DE?

Between Hayes and Daryl Johnson I think we would be fine. 

[glazeduck]

Respect the amount of work put in here, differ pretty strongly with a lot of the specific elements. 

 

No way Collins falls to the end of the 3rd.

Doubtful Hayes lasts to the 5th. 

Cannot see us taking a S with our one semi-premium pick when we have as many holes to fill as we do.

Really think TE and RB need upgrading, one is not addressed at all and the other simply with late rd. flyer on a rookie. 

I don't really see it with Okwara, and the Lions drafted his brother (the more talented of the two) in last year's draft, so I'd be a little surprised if he left.

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, H2o said:

Between Hayes and Daryl Johnson I think we would be fine. 

Might have to agree to disagree on this one... Epenesa, Hayes and Johnson makes for an inexperienced DE rotation ...

 

I also would prefer they keep Morse...happy to let Feliciano go ( Morse is cheaper)..

 

I do like Jimmy Morrissey as a sneaky 7th round pick ... definitely a Process guy...

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this... well thought out...

 

[whatdrought]

Morse isn’t getting cut. It would be foolish and it isn’t happening.

[glazeduck]

21 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Might have to agree to disagree on this one... Epenesa, Hayes and Johnson makes for an inexperienced DE rotation ...

 

While I do agree that DE is a pretty glaring need (I'd even be okay with trading up for one), 2 things need to be said about that spot and your comment above:

1. It's going to be impossible to fill every need with an affordable, dynamic player. It just is.

2. Whether we like it or not, I think there's going to be a pretty serious onus on Epenesa developing into solid, reliable player. A good deal of next season's success could rely on that. 

[ngbills]

That team looks worse to me than this years team. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

22 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Morse isn’t getting cut. It would be foolish and it isn’t happening.

Foolish??  He has been mediocre the past two years.  Doesn't suck, but he is a big reason why we can't run consistently well up the middle.  (And we can save money that needs to go to other positions by cutting him)  When it comes down to it, Feliciano is a tougher hard nosed blocker then Morse.  An interior starting line of Boettger Feliciano and Ford, and adding a FA or draft pick to compete at Guard would be solid.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

That interior offensive line could get Allen killed. 

[BuffaloRebound]

On offense, I’d sign Jonnu Smith and bring back D Williams.  I’d prefer keeping John Brown but he’s gotta take a pay cut.  I think our Running Backs are adequate but I’d upgrade the #3 RB position to a vet who the coaches will actually consider for playing time like a Marlin Mack coming off an injury.  
 

On defense, I’d replace Addison with Clowney.  Butler and Jefferson need to take pay cuts or I’d replace them with Short.  I cross my fingers that Milano doesn’t get offered more than $12m per year by another team and he comes back to Buffalo at closer to $10m per year.  
 

In the draft, I’d take a DB in round 1 and an interior OL in Round 2.  
 
Wallace, Boettger, Feliciano, McKenzie are guys it’d be nice to have back at the right price but aren’t making or breaking your team and are replaceable.  

[glazeduck]

5 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Foolish??  He has been mediocre the past two years.  Doesn't suck, but he is a big reason why we can't run consistently well up the middle.  (And we can save money that needs to go to other positions by cutting him)  When it comes down to it, Feliciano is a tougher hard nosed blocker then Morse.  An interior starting line of Boettger Feliciano and Ford, and adding a FA or draft pick to compete at Guard would be solid.

It's worth pointing out that the 2 most massive QB developments of this past generation have both come working with Morse. 

 

I don't know how much that actually means, or if it's just an anomaly, but a player's worth to an organization can certainly be a lot greater that just what you see on the field. Furthermore, yeah, our running game sucked this year, but how did we manage that? We threw all day. I know there's a school of thought that you still have to run the ball to win, and yes McD has even said as much, but when your OL is built to pass protect, and your RBs are at or below avg. and you've got a great QB... at what point do you have to question whether or not restructuring to fit a "should" is worth it?

[BillsFan1988]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

This will be an offseason like no other we have seen in a long time. With the cap decreasing, where it had been growing exponentially over the last few years, it is going to make things a bit challenging. Beane will have to navigate this whole situation and really hit on the moves he makes, both in FA and the draft. I don't know if this is anything that he would do, but this is a scenario I put together. First thing we'll have to do is take care of things at OBD with whom we re-sign and whom we cut. Right now we only have about $3.3M in cap space at the current projection.  

 

Cuts:

John Brown - Saves almost $8M in cap. I would rather resign McKenzie for less than 1/3 of what Brown is making.

Mitch Morse - Saves $4.8M in cap. Morse has never really lived up to the contract, but he has been solid. Still, you don't know which head injury will be his last.

Quinton Jefferson - Saves $6.5M in cap. He was decent, but I think we an easily fill his production with someone else at a cheaper rate. 

Vernon Butler - Saves $6.8M in cap. I know he was played out of position at the 1-Tech, but we can get similar production for cheaper. 

Lee Smith - Saves $2.25M in cap. It really is time. Bye Lee. 

Mario Addison - Saves $6.16M in cap. He'll be 34 when the season gets going and he didn't add much to the defense last year. 

 

At this point we would be sitting with close to $38M in cap space and could save more money with a couple of restructures to Dawkins and possibly Tre. Let's just say Beane restructures both of them to give us another $8M-$10M and we end up with $46M-$48M in total cap space. 

 

Re-sign:

McKenzie - (3 yrs $6M w/ $4M gtd) It's not a big contract. I don't see him getting more anywhere else. I see value on ST and in the offense for us.

 

Feliciano - (3 yrs $19M w/ $13M gtd) Feliciano wants to be here and I think we want him back, but we won't overpay. This gives him an uptick and we move him to C. 

 

D. Williams - (3 yrs $24M w/ $16M gtd) Williams had a tremendous bounce-back year and was a key cog on our OL. This would be top 10 RT $$$. I think it's enough to get it done.

 

Ike Boettger - RFA Tender

 

Bojo - RFA tender

 

Wallace - RFA Tender

 

Winters - 2 yrs $3M w/ $1.5M gtd (I don't really like it that much either, but he is a cheap depth option that knows the offense)

 

Nsekhe - 2yrs $4M w/ $2M gtd 

 

FA:

Romeo Okwara - DE - (4 yrs $32M w/ $24M gtd) He would be an upgrade @ DE for a reasonable rate. Reminds me of a younger version of Jerry Hughes and he's only 25. He can also take over for Hughes after 2021. He had a solid 2018 with 7.5 sacks, but had a down 2019. Then in 2020 he put it all together getting 10 sacks, 31 pressures, 10 QB hurries, and 10 QB hits. He also plays the run well at the position and is effective from either side of the DL.

 

Jayon Brown - LB - (4 yrs $40M w/ $28M gtd) Imo, he's an upgrade over Milano though Milano will likely get more $$$ on the open market. He's just as good in coverage even though he may not be as fast. He's a better tackler than Milano and has more pop in his pads. He played an inside LB role in that Tennessee hybrid type defense, but would be able to handle the WLB responsibilities here with absolutely no drop off.  

 

Johnathan Hankins - DT - (3 yrs $12M w/ $8M gtd)We all know what was missing up front this past year. A run stuffing 1-Tech that would eat up blockers while making plays inside. Hankins plays well against the run, but offers no pass rush for the most part. He is at the least a heavy rotational back up to Star, but could very well end up the starter. Either way it would give us a nice rotation in the interior of the DL and allow Oliver to get after it. It would also allow us to keep our big guys up front rested not having to lean on one guy all of the time. 

 

Draft: 

1. Trevon Moehrig / S / TCU - The nation's Jim Thorpe Award winner in 2020. Moehrig is an athletic freak who can squat 600lbs, bench 400lbs, and runs a 40 in the 4.5's at 6'2" 210lbs. He has a lot of positional flexibility being able to play both FS and SS, but he will eventually take over for Hyde in this defense. We could run that three S look against pass heavy offenses as Moehrig can cover anyone on the field. He takes good angles and lowers the boom on ball carriers when given the opportunity. 

 

2. Daviyon Nixon / DT / Iowa - Another guy to get after it from the interior of the defense. Between Oliver, Hankins, Nixon, Star, Zimmer, and Phillips that interior is looking VERY capable of causing opposing offenses problems. Nixon plays with power, quickness, and uses his hands well when shedding blocks. 

 

3. Nico Collins / WR / Michigan - At 6'4" and 215lbs Collins is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Especially hard to handle when you add him to an offense that already has Diggs, Davis, and Beasley to account for. He is a true vertical threat that uses his body to shield defenders, has an extra gear when he gets in any kind of space, and can go up the ladder to snag any ball Josh would hang up for him. He opted out in 2020, but averaged 20 yds per reception in 2019 even with Shea Patterson as his QB. 

 

5a. Daelin Hayes / DE / Notre Dame - Hayes reminds me a bit of Shaq Lawson. He didn't have the college production of Lawson, but he also didn't have four 1st Rounders playing by his side up front either. He is decent at setting the edge and can be a 5-8 sack per year type of player on a rotational basis. (You knew I had to go with a ND player at least once in the draft ) 

 

5b. Garret Wallow / LB / TCU - Going back to the TCU well again for another defensive player. Wallow was a S who converted to LB in college. He does well in Zone coverage and blitzing off of the edge when his number is called. He's depth and a developmental WLB to add to our defense. 

 

6. Javian Hawkins / RB / Louisville - Hawkins is lightening in a bottle, but on the smallish side standing at 5'9". He has a good build for his size though at 195lbs. He's that home run threat type of guy though who can hit a seam and take the ball 80 yards to the house. His 40 time is expected to be between the low 4.4's to the high 4.3's and you can see on the tape he is that fast in pads. Not really used in the passing game at Louisville so he will need some refinement there, but he could end up being a steal this late in the draft. 

 

7a. Tommy Doyle / OT / Miami (OH) - A developmental prospect who has the ability to evolve into our swing OT off of the bench. He has good functional playing strength, but will need to grow in pass pro. 

 

7b. Jimmy Morrissey / C / Pitt - A developmental C prospect who started a bunch of games at Pitt. He was solid, but is more of a finesse player than one who plays with a mean streak. He still could provide depth along the OL. 

 

Our lineups next year would be as follows:

 

OL: Dawkins-Ford-Feliciano-Boettger-Williams (Starting) Bench - Nsekhe, Bates, Winters, Doyle or Morrissey

WR: Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Collins, McKenzie, Hodgins

RB: Singletary, Moss, Hawkins

TE: Knox, Sweeney, Gilliam(FB/TE)

QB: Allen, Webb or Fromm

 

DE: Hughes, Okwara, Epenesa, Hayes, D. Johnson

DT: Oliver, Star, Nixon, Hankins, Zimmer, Phillips

LB: Edmunds, Brown, Klein, Wallow, Dodson, Matakevic

S: Poyer, Hyde, Moehrig, J. Johnson, Neal

CB: White, Jackson, T. Johnson, Wallace, Lewis

K: Bass

P: Bojo

LS: Ferguson

 

I know there are things I didn't address which other people say would be necessary such as CB, but I believe an improved pass rush makes all of your CB's look better. I also love what Moehrig will bring to the table for this defense on the field and I think it gives us options. Okwara will be much better than Addison. Epenesa I think takes another step forward with a full offseason of work in the weight room to get his body right and working on his craft. Hayes and D. Johnson are capable of making plays. Throw Hankins/Star into the lineup as space eaters (which we didn't have last year) so Oliver, Nixon, and Zimmer can get after it up front. Now the interior looks like a strength as well. I think that Edmunds and Brown are also a better tandem than Edmunds and Milano. On top of that, for passing downs you can have Oliver and Nixon both on the field pushing the pocket from the middle. Backup QB is sketchy. TE still isn't solved also if you don't believe Knox will get any better, but you can only do so much with the cap this year. Overall I think this team keeps us contending for the AFC and a SB next year while starting to position us for when other roster turnover starts to take place. 

I give your draft a solid B . Free agency I would gone about it pretty much the same but with different players. 

 

I would love Carl Lawson instead Okwara but Okwara is also a nice player. I wouldn't mind either one. 

 

Morse u could have made him a post June 1st cut and saved 8.2 mil off the cap. 

 

I'm surprised u kept Matekavish and his 3.5 mil cap number. That's a little hefty for a team with cap issues.

 

All in all I respect your plan. I takes hard work to put this together. I commend the effort.