Redrafting 10 years of Bills 1st & 2nd Round Picks

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Welp. I think this is the first time I have consciously acknowledged the fact that we took Marcell Dareus over Julio Jones.... Yikes.

It made sense at the time.

[NoSaint]

16 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

It’s so easy to do the hindsight, vs, actually doing the job of these GM’s.  There is no doubt before Beane, the only GM we had worth his salt was Butler and before him Polian.  I know Butler placed us in a cap problem, but he assembled a heckova defense primarily from FA and trades.

 

I read it, but these writers get to look how smart they are as they have the results to critticize the guys who actually had to make the pics.

 

Thanks OP for sharing as not toward you.  It’s just an easy to write as you have the luxury of knowing what happens for the last 10 years.

you say it’s easy, but he still didn’t do great. Many of the grades were questionable at best (especially in round 2 where getting a solid starter is a success) and the proper picks were pretty inconsistent.

[machine gun kelly]

Saint, I just mean it’s easier fir revisionist history to look back 10 years and the author of the article stating I would’ve picked this guy or that guy.  Well, he has the luxury of how they performed in the NFL for anywhere of 10 or less years.  That’s the easy part.  There is no doubt our previous GM’s were not good at all prior to Beane.  I hope that clarifies.  It’s kind of a big so what as I can look back year by year, see who worked out on ours or another team, or drafted better than us.

[JustWinPlease]

I like the idea of the exercise, but at least make it realistic and actually build the team...

 For example, why would we draft Bell, Kamara and Dobbins in the span of a few years? It makes no sense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

Some of this was hard to read lol

 

https://coldfrontreport.com/redoing-10-years-of-bills-1st-2nd-round-picks/

 

A lot of this is total 20/20 hindsight. 

 

We badly needed a LT when we drafted Cordy Glenn, and he did, in fact, develop into a fine LT which is one of the premium positions, worth drafting high, much more so than LB.   Very few people would say it's a mistake not to draft a premium LT over a LB

 

A team really can't predict a guy's injury trajectory in the NFL too well - there are guys that are avoided due to injury history like Thurman Thomas or Rob Gronkowski who have no problems, and others who have no problems in college but just can't stay healthy in the league.

 

If I had the stomach, I could do the same for a bunch of other entries on the list.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I know EJ wasn't great, But calling him one of the worst picks in NFL history is a bad take. That 2013 draft was horrible and the Bills needed a QB. If they had picked him at 8, that would have been awful. But they traded back, got a second rounder too which eventually became McCoy

 

The real mistake was doubling down on EJ a year later

 

I'd say the real problem was not taking a Quarterback a year earlier from a decent crop of day 2 / day 3 guys in Foles, Cousins and Russ. How a team that needed a Quarterback, even one that at that point was still somewhat committed to Fitz, could look at that group and not think "let's take a shot on one of these guys" is a mystery to me. 

[Captain Hindsight]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd say the real problem was not taking a Quarterback a year earlier from a decent crop of day 2 / day 3 guys in Foles, Cousins and Russ. How a team that needed a Quarterback, even one that at that point was still somewhat committed to Fitz, could look at that group and not think "let's take a shot on one of these guys" is a mystery to me. 

I think they would have taken Wilson in the 4th. After that draft Nix said something to the effect of you can't wait to draft a QB if you like him. Hence the "reach" of EJ

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Captain Hindsight said:

I think they would have taken Wilson in the 4th. After that draft Nix said something to the effect of you can't wait to draft a QB if you like him. Hence the "reach" of EJ

 

Indeed. Nix thought Russ was going later. That was a mistake. 

[No_Matter_What]

58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A lot of this is total 20/20 hindsight. 

 

I always wanted to ask - why 20/20? I mean I get the meaning of the phrase (i.e. that with later knowledge you know what you should've done in the past), but I don't understand that 20/20 part. Should it mean that you have like 20 pieces of info out of 20 possible later?

 

Not a native speaker ofc. And I googled and didn't find explanation.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

I always wanted to ask - why 20/20? I mean I get the meaning of the phrase (i.e. that with later knowledge you know what you should've done in the past), but I don't understand that 20/20 part. Should it mean that you have like 20 pieces of info out of 20 possible later?

 

Not a native speaker ofc. And I googled and didn't find explanation.

 

Really?  Googled?

 

https://www.aao.org/eye-health/tips-prevention/what-does-20-20-vision-mean

 

20/20 meaning, first hit

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd say the real problem was not taking a Quarterback a year earlier from a decent crop of day 2 / day 3 guys in Foles, Cousins and Russ. How a team that needed a Quarterback, even one that at that point was still somewhat committed to Fitz, could look at that group and not think "let's take a shot on one of these guys" is a mystery to me. 

 

Oh, absolutely.....we traded up in the 3rd round and I was like Oh, Here we go...it's gonna be Russ Wilson

 

No.  It was TJ Graham, and Nix was all giddy about it too.  6 picks later Seattle drafted Russell Wilson.

 

Then in the 4th round, Cousins was drafted 3 picks before ours.

 

I grant at the time we had just decided Fitzpatrick had franchise potential and given him a contract, but then the rest of the season happened...perfect time to hedge the team's bets.  Worst thing that happens is trade value.

 

[Nextmanup]

There's so many to comment on there, but Cordy Glenn instead of Bobby Wagner is one that really got to me.

 

The list is a great reminder that "draft ranking" is not really a thing.

 

I.E., you don't get the 5th best player in the draft with the 5th pick.  You don't get the 18th best player with the 18th pick.

 

Team valuation of players is way off all around the league.

 

For this reason, number of picks is almost always better than perceived rank.

 

You could quietly pick 27th every year, and if you had perfect vision of who to take, you'd still stock your team with pro bowlers and HOFers.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

There's so many to comment on there, but Cordy Glenn instead of Bobby Wagner is one that really got to me.

 

The list is a great reminder that "draft ranking" is not really a thing.

 

I.E., you don't get the 5th best player in the draft with the 5th pick.  You don't get the 18th best player with the 18th pick.

 

Team valuation of players is way off all around the league.

 

For this reason, number of picks is almost always better than perceived rank.

 

You could quietly pick 27th every year, and if you had perfect vision of who to take, you'd still stock your team with pro bowlers and HOFers.

 

 

 

Cordy Glenn was really good here before the injury though. And LT > Linebacker. 

[Captain Hindsight]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Cordy Glenn was really good here before the injury though. And LT > Linebacker. 

Agreed. Glenn was a top 12 tackle when he was here. Highly respected enough in the league to be worth a 2nd round pick (essentially) when we traded him to Cinci

[dma0034]

Only two I wished were drafted:Mack over Watkins and AJ Green (Or Julio but Green was the better player coming out of college) over Dareus

[DeltaDigital]

This is difficult to read.