Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?

[Don Otreply]

Being that player value is always subjective from team to team, and pick to pick, the best we can hope for is for Beane to be Beane and enhance the team with whatever action he takes. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

15 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

An argument can be made all these were BPA as well.  

 

We already had a HUGE chunk of cash invested in our DL when we drafted Epenensa.  He wasn't even active in his first NFL game.  How is that a "need"?

We had two RB's ahead of Singletary.

Jordan Phillips was our starting 3 tech when we drafted Oliver.

You can see in the Bills War Room how much Beane loved Ford.  

We traded up for Edmunds because they loved him as well.  Lorenzo Alexander on WGR said when he spoke to Beane about it, they had Edmunds above Roquan Smith.  You don't trade up to just fill a need in the first round,  you trade up for someone who is high on your board.

 

Just because you draft someone to improve a position doesn't mean it's a need.   

Fair argument especially with the Epenesa pick. I guess its perspective.  The Bills had no other player capable of playing MLB on the roster when they drafted Edmunds. When they drafted Knox, Kroft and Croom were the only TEs on the roster.
If the Bills lose Williams you don’t think OT will be taken in the first or second round? 
And like someone else posted, I have no idea where the Bills grade these players. Did McD let Gilmore walk, trade down, and White was magically the BPA on their board when they had a gaping hole at CB? 

[PrimeTime101]

33 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Fair argument especially with the Epenesa pick. I guess its perspective.  The Bills had no other player capable of playing MLB on the roster when they drafted Edmunds. When they drafted Knox, Kroft and Croom were the only TEs on the roster.
If the Bills lose Williams you don’t think OT will be taken in the first or second round? 
And like someone else posted, I have no idea where the Bills grade these players. Did McD let Gilmore walk, trade down, and White was magically the BPA on their board when they had a gaping hole at CB? 

I am not convinced we let williams go. There is plenty of places and things to do to keep williams. We cant go creating to many holes to fill by a rookie.  Williams had a great season... im not the one to just let him walk.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Would trading out for a proven veteran be the best strategy due to the uncertainty of  the lack of scouting, no combine etc etc due to COVID? Not saying the Bills should, just asking if they should.

 

 

No. 

 

In a year when we have little cap space, it doesn't make much sense, unless the salaries are low, and it's unusual to get a good player with a cheap veteran contract, partly because the other team doesn't want to let them leave. Trading for vets is generally a more expensive way to go. Not the year for that.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Really depends on Milano and possibly watt. If the bills get neither and don't get a plug and play LB in FA I think you have to go after the ND LB if he slides, or if collins from Tulsa get to us. But I would not be surprised at all if our rd 1 and 2 picks are LBs. Because after edmunds play this year can/ will beane pay edmunds a massive contract? cuz someone else will. Might be in this same situation again, forced to go LB instead building somewhere else.

 

 

If Milano goes, that'll even further increase the already good odds that Edmunds stays. It might be hard to pay two LBs big money. If we're not paying Milano, paying Edmunds will be less painful.

 

As for picking LBs in the first and 2nd this year? That would be a massive surprise. One? Certainly very possible, especially if Milano goes. Two? Really unlikely. We have other needs.

[BigBuff423]

21 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

I'll disagree because when you start with Allen, you've already lost me. If you can't see how QB is an outlier in any given year and the fact that unless you have an Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, etc. that it is ALWAYS an area where you're looking to upgrade then there's nothing anyone can say with regard to logic. As for Edmunds, Beane said he didn't think he'd be there at 16 so he went up and got him. Oliver some argued that year could have gone in the top 5 and that he might have been the most talented defensive player in the entire Draft making his value pretty obvious. Singletary you've already conceded that one, Moss led the FBS in broken tackles and some projected him to be a low 2nd Rd pick and dropped because of his 40 time at the Combine - which he ran with a hamstring injury. Epenesa was being mocked IN THE FIRST ROUND and again, Beane called him and said he had no idea what other teams were thinking but were glad to get him and Knox, again was similar to a Singletary pick. The Bills had Clay, who did almost nothing for the team despite a huge contract handed out by the incompetent Doug Whaley, Jason Croom, and Keith Towbridge - all in a year when Beane said they were dumping salary and eating Dead Cap money and hitting the reset button. Of course the team "needed" a TE, but it's not like he over-spent on Draft value for Knox. As for Ford, did you forget that Beane went and spent a bunch of money and assets on the Offensive Line following the 2018 season? Mongo, Morse, etc. were all FAs because Beane and the team knew Offensive Line was an issue and mixing in a Rookie on a line of Vets makes huge sense especially when Beane really believed(s) Ford is a long-term solution somewhere on the line and said after the Draft Ford was graded higher than where he was Drafted and were holding their breath when Carolina traded in front of them to take a different lineman. Can Beane be exaggerating? Of course he can, but it's up to you and all of us to determine IF we believe him. Given his forthright answers to the media thus far and handling some tough questions since he's arrived, I choose to believe him. You may not and that's certainly your prerogative but given the information presented, I'm going to say that he primarily attacks needs in FA and uses BPA overall. I did say in my post that it generally applies and if you're going to make an argument that it doesn't, I'd say you have a valid point in Knox and that's about it IMO.

 

We're talking about Draft, but also if you look at the team deficiencies in 2017, '18, & 2019 and then followed the Free Agency signings, I think it's clear and obvious what Beane is doing: he's taking as many needs as possible off the table to pursue their best player at each Draft position.

 

However, you've also conveniently left off the fact that the team had Cordy Glenn but Drafted Dawkins and that was AFTER Whaley gave Glenn a huge contract, Drafted Fromm merely from a value perspective, Drafted Bass based on value in the 6th Round despite having Hauschka (sp?), and Drafting Dane Jackson again based on value. When you consider Phillips, T. Johnson, Darryl Williams, Siran Neal, Tommy Sweeney (who missed this year but showed promise at the end of 2019) and others not to mention Wyatt Teller who had a monster season for the Browns, I'd say Beane has shown he can draft well and "generally" uses value to determine his pick as opposed to reaching for a need. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

21 hours ago, NewEra said:

First preference is to trade back.

 

If Pitts, parsons, or waddle slip to 20ish, I’d consider trading up.  If Kadarious Toney, Zaven Collins, Kwity Paye are there when we’re 1-4 picks away, I’d consider trading up.

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks. 

 

 

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks. 

 

 

Great addition to the list. I second that motion.  He’d be perfect for this team.  The raiders just seem too perfect a fit, I can’t see them passing on him

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks. 

 

 

Correct. I’m guessing that the front office approaches EVERY draft with both moving up and moving back in mind. These decisions are made on the fly depending who’s offering you what and who’s still on your board. 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Obviously your likelihood increases of hitting on a good player the higher your picks. That goes without saying.

 

The percentage of 1st round picks actually panning out is close to 50% and it gets lower in subsequent rounds. You need draft picks to build a complete roster, but I think people tend to overrate them on the board.

And obviously some franchises have demonstrated a better job drafting than others....I just think people overrate draft picks a bit. A little different scenario, but I’m sure your opinion on how the Rams are building their team is ass backwards.... but they’ve been a very successful team the past 3 years. Going to the SB in one of them and again mortgaged their future draft picks already this offseason.

 

I think you overrate Beanes drafts to this point. He hit a grand slam with Allen. That’s really been his one great pick.(And absolutely huge one)This team isn’t even close to the AFC Championship if Allen doesn’t play MVP level this past season.

 

Your other examples.....Edmunds is solid but he has his fair share of struggles and is not a playmaker whatsoever.  He’s probably the most inconsistent player on the team and often looks lost. Phillips was coming on last season after starting the season terribly  before improving at seasons end. Another meh player to this point. Johnson is a solid find. Singletary had a strong rookie season and looked completely lost this past season at times. Moss was coming on at the end of the season. Again, both are pretty meh players. 
 

In no way does mortgaging a 3rd round pick to move up to mid 20s hurt this team going forward. That’s ridiculous, IMO. 

 

 

 

Well, if it goes without saying then how come you disagreed with it? You said it was a crapshoot. Now you say it's not. I guess it goes without saying it's not a crapshoot. I guess it's at least good that you've got it the second time around.

 

It's ridiculous to think we're overrating Beane's drafts at this point, ridiculous.

 

I didn't say he's been superb, just that he's been very good. And he has. Again, his one draft that's been three years in the league has Josh Allen, Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson in the 4th, and Wyatt Teller in the 5th. The worst of that bunch are solid picks and there are also several excellent values there. And again, yeah, the values do include Allen. And the fact that you don't think Wyatt Teller in the 5th was a terrific pick at this point says more about you than about Teller.

 

And kid yourself about Edmunds if you must - many apparently must - but he's a two-time Pro Bowler at age 22 that the Bills absolutely love, a central figure on a defense that's been very good since he got here, except for the time when Edmunds was injured early in the season. He's a great pick. Not a huge value, but a really solid pick. And Harrison Phillips when healthy has been good and solid for a 3rd, getting quite a bit better later in the season this year as he got his strength back and beginning to look like his pre-injury self.

 

That's a really good class in the only year that's been in the league long enough to give a good idea what their potential is.

 

The rest are too young to fully judge, especially after a year without a real offseason, but there are a bunch of guys who so far look like solid gets in Oliver, Epenesa, Moss, and Singletary (2nd in the league in YPA his first year, there's every chance that's a line issue in the run game)  and a bunch of them who look like real bargains in guys like 6th rounder Johnson, 7th rounder Sweeney, 7th rounder Dane Jackson, 6th Tyler Bass and 4th Gabe Davis.

 

And a bunch who we haven't seen enough of yet to know for sure in Ford, Hodgins, and Knox.

 

And absolutely dumping a 3rd round pick hurts your team's odds of success going forward. Again, all you need to do is look at Massey and Thaler and the Harvard Sports Collective Study, and basically every other serious study done on the subject. The more shots you have, the better your odds of helping your team.  You don't trade major assets to go up higher in the draft, unless you're going after a franchise QB.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Albany,n.y.]

19 hours ago, TPS said:

Sammy Watkins says hello...

When you trade up, you have to do it with some degree of sanity.  I trust the Bills management not to do something as crazy/stupid as trading up for a player when they can get a comparable or better player in their original draft slot.  Beane & his scouts do a lot of work on their high picks.  I don't believe Beane would have ever made that trade, nor would he have traded back into the 1st round for JP Losman, John McCargo, etc. 

 

You have to have competent management whether you're trading up or down.  The Bills didn't have that for almost the entire time of the drought.  Donahoe looked good on paper when he was hired, but was very mediocre.  The Levy, Brandon, Nix & Whaley terms were draft disasters. 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

When you trade up, you have to do it with some degree of sanity.  I trust the Bills management not to do something as crazy/stupid as trading up for a player when they can get a comparable or better player in their original draft slot.  Beane & his scouts do a lot of work on their high picks.  I don't believe Beane would have ever made that trade, nor would he have traded back into the 1st round for JP Losman, John McCargo, etc. 

 

You have to have competent management whether you're trading up or down.  The Bills didn't have that for almost the entire time of the drought.  Donahoe looked good on paper when he was hired, but was very mediocre.  The Levy, Brandon, Nix & Whaley terms were draft disasters. 

@Aussie Joe provided a couple other examples under McBeane, Zay and Cody.  I simply disagree with the generalization about trading up vs trading back.  It's all about the specific situation, not a general rule that one is better than the other.

[Royale with Cheese]

15 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Fair argument especially with the Epenesa pick. I guess its perspective.  The Bills had no other player capable of playing MLB on the roster when they drafted Edmunds. When they drafted Knox, Kroft and Croom were the only TEs on the roster.
If the Bills lose Williams you don’t think OT will be taken in the first or second round? 
And like someone else posted, I have no idea where the Bills grade these players. Did McD let Gilmore walk, trade down, and White was magically the BPA on their board when they had a gaping hole at CB? 

If Williams walks then if there is a RT with a high grade....I’m sure they’ll take him.

 

I fully expect them to sign at least one vet to compete for a job that’s starting caliber.  

[Tipster19]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:
 

I think the Edmunds debate has been discussed an infinite amount of times here. He is a 2x pro bowler because the conference is incredibly void of middle linebackers. If the guy was on the Carolina Panthers, he wouldn’t even sniff the pro bowl with all the LBs in the NFC. Hell, we watched two of them in David and White in the SB who you could instantly see Edmunds isn’t in the same world of. He’s a solid player, who is madly inconsistent and lacks instincts, the reason he never makes big plays. 
 

I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been thinking the last several weeks, especially watching Devin White, how much I would love to see a snot, slobbering maniac for a MLB. As great as Luke Kurchly was he struck me being passive and now I see the same the same tendency with Edmunds. Now Devin White, he’s the kind of MLB that would make this defense go. How about a position change for Edmunds? He has the athletic ability and measurable to be an edge rusher. If Watt does end up in Buffalo him and Hughes would be great mentors to learn from. Edmunds and Epenesa would be great in a rotation, relieving Watt and Hughes. Next question would be who could replace Edmunds at the MLB position? Could AJ Klein be a good replacement or would the Bills have to go outside of the organization to get that position filled? 

[ghostwriter]

Here’s a mock I did on PFN Mock Simulator. Initially traded back, picked up a 2nd and 3rd and then moved up a few times.

 

BUF
51. Carlos Basham Jr.
EDGE Wake Forest

 

BUF
61. Jabril Cox
LB LSU

 

BUF
67. Jay Tufele
DT USC

 

BUF
91. Quinn Meinerz
OC Wisconsin-Whitewater

 

BUF
119. Tedarrell Slaton
DT Florida

 

BUF
125. Ben Cleveland
OG Georgia

 

BUF
133. Jack Anderson
OG Texas Tech

[Sherlock Holmes]

Trade up for Friarmouth after trading our 1st for McCaffrey.

[YoloinOhio]

Baby got BACK

[Albany,n.y.]

20 hours ago, TPS said:

@Aussie Joe provided a couple other examples under McBeane, Zay and Cody.  I simply disagree with the generalization about trading up vs trading back.  It's all about the specific situation, not a general rule that one is better than the other.

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

 

[buffaloaggie]

This is a very deep draft. Trading back and gathering more picks makes the most sense in this draft. 

 

[TPS]

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

Yeah, that's why I stated "McBeane". However, your point was about trading back vs trading up, not who is doing the picking.  I don't think it's controversial to say the choice is dependent on the situation.  If you have a group of say 6-7 guys with similar grades, and you don't have a specific positional need, I'm sure Beane would not hesitate to make a move back to pick up additional assets and still get one of the guys in the group. 

 

The real issue in your example is the Bills (Buddy) were desperate to find a "franchise" QB in a terrible QB class--it was either EJ or Geno Smith.  The Rams took Tavon Austin with the Bills' pick, and the Bills were able to get Kiko and M Goodwin with the additional picks from the trade.  Maybe they should've taken a someone like OT Pugh at 16 and stuck with Fitzpatrick? There were some decent players at pick 8, but picking up 3 starters by trading back and keeping Fitz "could" have been a good strategy back then.   Hindsight...