Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?

[Tipster19]

I don’t expect for the Bills to just stand pat at the 30th pick overall unless for reason there is a serious slide of talent of need. If not then which train of thought would be more beneficial, trading up or trading back? I would think that either way could be influenced by the salary cap reduction. By trading up I would think that it would take some serious draft capital (multiple picks) to get in position of acquiring a serious talent, especially of one of need. Now who or what position that would be I cannot say but by doing this this would create one big contract and spending less money on multiple draft picks all the while of having a 1st rd player who provide the Bills with a 5th year option. 
 

In trading back the Bills could accumulate multiple players, providing a better chance of filling needs with smaller contracts. Drafting for LBs and OL, very good players could be found in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rds. Expecting to be losing some players due to the salary cap reduction (*see Milano) it would be the prudent way of balancing the ledger but the influx of young inexperience players might not be in the best interest of the window of opportunity that the Bills are currently in. This might though allow the Bills to add some mid range veterans through free agency to help offset the mass addition of young draftees. 
 

So which would be a better fit for the Bills, drafting for a higher quality of player of need in the 1st rd and have less picks or to draft for a quantity of lower draft picks?

[TC in St. Louis]

Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the first and is willing to be generous, let's do it.  You do lose the 5th year of control once you leave the first round, though.  That may be a factor.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

[Augie]

I trust our front office. It’s impossible to know what the best option is now. Who falls, and how do you value them? How many guys who are graded almost equally are available coming up? 

 

I like the idea of trading back for more cheap talent, but I’ll trust the guys who are paid to do this for a living. They seem pretty good so far. 

[LABILLBACKER]

As much as I'd kill to trade up and go after Pitts, it would be foolish and way too costly. Because of the pandemic this whole season was upside down. Most college players have less tape to go off of. Draft picks this season will be much riskier. And the lower cap puts us in a weaker position to sign the players we desperately need like "in the trenches". The correct strategy for Beane I feel is to trade back and get that extra 2nd round pick and maybe a 4th? Obviously there's so many players you'd like to snag. Najee Harris, Boogie Basham, a killer 1tech or a run blocking guard. Maybe a LB to replace Milano? We'll need to walk away from all the players Ethan mentioned and maybe a few more. It's all about beating KC from here on out. And a pass rusher should be #1 priority. 

[BruceVilanch]

I think we'll have a better idea after FA shakes out and we see where we are, but I believe Beane has moved up every draft so my money would be on a trade up.

[BillsShredder83]

Trade up. I think our roster is at the point that we need more quality pics over depth pics. It's getting harder and harder to crack a Bills roster w/ this front office in place. Ill take a few players ready to help push the needle at this point. I could be wrong, but that's been my thought process going into this draft

[Doc Brown]

I like the idea of always having that 5th year option every year so staying put at 30 and taking the best player available at an area of need/depth is fine with me.

[MJS]

Either... or neither. Whichever.

[Saxum]

I think it is too early until they determine who is staying, who is going and who is available in free agency. 

If draft was before it would be different but it isn't.

[billsbackto81]

Depending on the cost I'd trade up for a difference maker. Pass Rusher, CB or RB, in that order.

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I think we'll have a better idea after FA shakes out and we see where we are, but I believe Beane has moved up every draft so my money would be on a trade up.

Well if the past predicts the future, he very well may trade up, but not necessarily do it in the first.  It could be going from a low 2nd to a high 2nd.

 

I don’t have it, but someone posts every year the trade value Jimmy Johnson or others assess to value of a pick.  I don’t care to see it now, but after free agency calms down, on can make an intelligent argument for going from one spot to another.

[JaCrispy]

Can’t afford to trade up this year...have to be more frugal...we are not 1 piece away...

[GunnerBill]

If the right player slides to #24 or #25 I could see a small move up, if the board falls another way at #30 and there is interest in the pick I could see a small move back. Both are on the table IMO.

[cage]

That's probably too hard to predict from #30.  Given that they are transitioning to a point where our good players need to be re-signed, there will be a need to balance that out with cheaper talent.  I'd like to see us trade back if they can pick up an extra #3 or something like that.  However, Beane tends to get excited about players that he's targeting and has typically been more aggressive to trade up.  I imagine that the cost will prevent him from doing so and he'll stay disciplined and pick someone at #30.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

The membership of TBD, and the rest of the Buffalo fanbase concur with Dr. Rumack:

 

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

I could definitely see them trading back. With Allen's contract looming, the need for talented young players on their rookie contracts will increase. 

[JMF2006]

I am a stay where they are guy.

 

I say use all the draft picks to procure players.

 

With the lower cap they need to get at least 4 serviceable players.

 

I have a lot of confidence that Beane and crew can do that based on past performance.

[The Jokeman]

If a team is looking to move up to get a QB so have the extra year to play with (see Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, Minnesota and Tedy Bridgewater) I'm all for trading down to acquire a few more picks. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

I'm inclined to think that trading down for an extra pick in a COVID affected draft might pay off, but who the hell knows.