Gunner's 2021 FINAL Mock Draft on PAGE 21

[OldTimer1960]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Here is the update..... version 2.0 (only 1 round this time) is here!!

 

1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Clemson

No change here. Lawrence is the Jaguars’ pick.

 

2 New York Jets – Zach Wilson, Quarterback, BYU

Sam Darnold has gone and the Jets are now locked in on Wilson.

 

3 San Francisco 49ers – Justin Fields, Quarterback, Ohio State

The 49ers didn’t trade up to #3 for any other position. This is to select a Quarterback. The question now is which one? I know all the buzz is Mac Jones but I have felt since I started on Fields’ tape that he is a perfect fit in a Shanahan style offense that simplifies reads while he develops as a reader of the field.

 

4 TRADE! New England Patriots – Trey Lance, Quarterback, North Dakota State (Patriots get #4; Falcons get #15, #46, #122 & 2022 1st round pick)

The Patriots have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason and they don’t have a toon of remaining needs but it matters for nothing without better quarterback play. If the 49ers are serious about holding onto Garoppolo then their only remaining option is the draft so they pay the piper and move up for Trey Lance.

 

5 Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, Offensive Tackle, Oregon

I have heard the rumours linking Ja’Marr Chase with Cincy and it would be a typical Bengals move. But I am going to give them more credit than they’re due here and stick with my prediction that they select Penei Sewell to protect Joe Burrow’s blindside for the next decade.

 

6 Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts, Tight End, Florida

Miami’s free agent addition of Will Fuller gives them the speedy separator at receiver that I think was an essential need. They could still add a further receiver at this spot but Kyle Pitts is almost a receiver and tight end rolled into one and is an intriguing option.

 

7 Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons, Linebacker, Penn State

Everyone has been mocking a wide receiver here and with good reason, the Lions’ top 3 options left in free agency. However, think back to the Dan Campbell press conference. Did that sound like a guy about to draft a receiver with his first pick? Or would a hard hitting linebacker (also a major need for Detroit) be more his style?

 

8 Carolina Panthers – Patrick Surtain, Cornerback, Alabama

There are two ways the Panthers could go here. They could add Rashawn Slater and plug him in at left tackle but this is a deep tackle class and they might be able to address the spot in round 2. It is a comparatively thin corner class outside of the round 1 guys and so they nab Surtain here, who has the highest floor in the draft and can be penciled in as a long term starter.

  

9 Denver Broncos – Rashawn Slater, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

The Broncos could still go corner here even though they brought Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby in as free agents, but with Surtain gone and Caleb Farley’s back issue, I could see them passing and instead adding further strength to their offensive line. I would expect Slater to start at left tackle with Garrett Bolles sliding to the right side.

 

10 Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, Cornerback, South Carolina

Even before Farley’s injury I had heard that the Cowboys were really high on Horn. They have a desperate need at corner and he fits nicely in the scheme that new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn wants to run.

 

11 New York Giants – Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Alabama

Even with Kenny Golladay in the fold this is a need for the Giants. Waddle’s speed and ability to line up all over the formation is a good compliment for Golladay’s vertical threat.

 

12 Philadelphia Eagles – DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Alabama

The Eagles might have taken Jalon Reagor in the first-round last year but even if that works out longer term they still have a need for playmakers on the outside and the way the board has fallen Smith is pretty much the best player available.

 

13 Los Angeles Chargers – Alijah Vera-Tucker, Offensive Tackle, USC

The Chargers tackle situation is desperate as even their underwhelming 2020 starter at left tackle, Sam Tevi, left in free agency. Vera-Tucker solidified himself as a first-round pick by looking equally dominant at left tackle in 2020 as he did at guard in 2019.

 

14 Minnesota Vikings – Kwity Paye, Edge Rusher, Michigan

The Vikings have a major need at edge. Other than Danielle Hunter, coming off a year away and surgery on a herniated disk, they have 7th rounders and undrafted free agents at the position. Paye is the best 4-3 end in the class.

 

15 (From New England) Atlanta Falcons – Caleb Farley, Cornerback, Virginia Tech

The Falcons have needs everywhere on the defensive side of the ball. I am not sure how Caleb Farley’s back is going to check out but his camp are describing his recent procedure as “minor”. It might be a risk the Falcons just have to take for a potential difference maker.

 

16 TRADE! Tennessee Titans – Gregory Rousseau, Edge Rusher, Miami (Titans get #16, Cardinals get #22, #85 & #100)

This trade works for three reasons… i. the Raiders, Dolphins and Colts are all teams who could be in the edge rusher market so you need to jump them; ii. the Titans tried and failed to address the position in free agency last year; iii. the Cardinals have no 3rd or 4th round picks in this draft and will be keen to replenish their stock in those middle rounds. Why Rousseau? I heard Mike Vrabel interviewed in the run up to the last draft and he said he really values length in edge rushers. Rousseau at 6’7 and with huge, long, arms fits the profile.

 

17 Las Vegas Raiders – Trevon Moehrig, Safety, TCU

The Raiders are a difficult team to predict but Moehrig is Mike Mayock’s type of football player. Smart, instinctive, flies to the football and forces turnovers. Two first round safeties in three drafts wouldn’t be great positional value though.

 

18 Miami Dolphins – Azeez Ojulari, Edge Rusher, Georgia

I mocked an edge rusher (Rousseau) here in v1.0 too but it makes even more sense to me now after Miami moved on from their two big 2020 free agent edge signings in Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson. I am not completely sold on the undersized Ojulari but he is a better fit for 3-4 teams like the Dolphins.

 

19 Washington Football Team – Christian Darrisaw, Offensive Tackle, Virginia Tech

I remain sold on this pick too. Left tackle is a big hole on a team that made the playoffs as a below .500 club but if they can sort out the Quarterback position they are not that many other pieces away. Darrisaw is not the finished article but his potential is sky high.

 

20 Chicago Bears – Mac Jones, Quarterback, Alabama

The Bears tried to sign Russell Wilson and ended up with Andy Dalton. I just don’t see how you can try and sell your fanbase on a Quarterback competition between Dalton and Nick Foles. If one of the five Quarterbacks falls this far you have to believe that Ryan Pace will feel the pressure to select him.

 

21 Indianapolis Colts – Greg Newsome, Cornerback, Northwestern

The Cots brough Xavier Rhodes back for another year but on a very modest contract and while he and 2019 2nd rounder Rock Ya-Sin mean the cupboard isn’t totally bare at corner they definitely need an upgrade. Newsome is raw but has elite coverage skills and feels like a Chris Ballard type of player.

 

22 (From Tennessee) Arizona Cardinals – Travis Etienne, Running Back, Clemson

The Cardinals have a need at corner and at interior offensive line but this is early for players at either spot. Kliff Kingsbury has his two big guys on the outside in D’Andre Hopkins and AJ Green but their offense needs explosive speed – and Travis Etienne is the man to bring that both running out of spread formations and as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

23 New York Jets – Jaylen Mayfield, Offensive Tackle, Michigan

The Jets spent their free agency dollars on the defense for the most part, while adding Corey Davis to 2020 2nd rounder Denzel Mims at wideout. Strangely though, given the Sam Darnold experience, they didn’t upgrade the protection for their latest franchise saviour at Quarterback. Adding Jaylen Mayfield at right tackle to Mekhi Becton on the left side means edge rushers will have a hard job getting to Zach Wilson.

 

24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, Running Back, Alabama

The Steelers brought Big Ben back and then re-signed Juju Smith-Schuster on a one-year deal. They are all in on a last ride in 2021 and to do that they have to find more offensive balance and so Harris makes sense as a scheme fit and an immediate upgrade at running back.

 

25 Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Linebacker, Notre Dame

Urban Meyer has always struck me as a guy who worries about what players can do and not what they can’t. I can imagine the Jags using JOK similarly to the way that the Chargers have used Derwin James – he might nominally start at safety but he would be let loose to go and make plays.

 

26 Cleveland Browns – Jaelen Phillips, Edge Rusher, Miami

The Browns need help on defense. I would, ordinarily, say that their back 7 is the greater need but with Olivier Vernon having departed the idea of plugging Phillips in opposite Myles Garrett might just be too good to pass on.

 

27 Baltimore Ravens – Terrace Marshall, Wide Receiver, LSU

The Ravens need more weapons for Lamar Jackson. The reason I see Marshall as a fit is his experience playing inside as a big slot. We know Jackson is a much better, more accomplished thrower inside the numbers and Marshall can run those tough routes across the middle and has the speed to go deep down the seam.

 

28 New Orleans Saints – Kelvin Joseph, Cornerback, Kentucky

The Saints are currently penciling in 33 year old journeyman Patrick Robinson in as their starter at corner opposite Marshon Lattimore and to make things worse Lattimore is playing on his 5th year option and their cap situation means a long term deal is tricky to do. Joseph is underrated and more than held his own against the best receivers in the SEC.

 

29 Green Bay Packers – Jamin Davis, Linebacker, Kentucky

It won’t impress Green Bay fans or Aaron Rodgers but I am going defense here and it is two Kentucky Wildcats in a row in the first round of the NFL draft! After letting Blake Martinez walk in free agency last offseason the interior linebacker spots were a major weakness in 2020, Davis is a beast and a day 1 upgrade.

 

30 Buffalo Bills – Joseph Ossai, Edge Rusher, Texas

This is not exactly the position the Bills would hope to find themselves in at #30 but a result of being a team in the hunt for a Superbowl is that you often end up without your first choice of players at end of round 1. We know that Dan Morgan was at the Texas pro day and very much focused on Ossai so maybe the Bills take a punt on the raw talent and athleticism here – even if he might not be a day 1 contributor.

 

31 Kansas City Chiefs – Liam Eichenburg, Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

Everyone knows the Chiefs need tackle help and I am going to go for Eichenburg ahead of Alex Leatherwood and Teven Jenkins because of his ability to man the blind side. He is a polished, high floor player who is capable of stepping in as an opening day starter.

 

32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, Defensive Tackle, Alabama

The Buccaneers success in 2020 was as much about their fearsome defensive front as it was about Tom Brady’s offense, but they are old up there. Vita Vea is locked in as their nose tackle but Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston are the starters at those end positions of the 3 man front and both are well into their 30s. Barmore would give them some youth in reserve and ready to take over in 2022.

 

 

Okay... I'm gonna put my hard hat on.... flame away!

 

Did Ja’Marr Chase get arrested or fail a drug test? 😀

 

I guess that Ossai is as good an option as Bills will have available, they are really in no mans land at 30 looking for DE or CB.  With what will be available at those positions, they have to at least consider other positions even if the need isn’t that big.

Edited April 11, 2021 by OldTimer1960

[Virgil]

In this scenario, Mac Jones is the smoke screen QB that everyone says they want, but they actually pass and he falls?

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Did Ja’Marr Chase get arrested or fail a drug test? 😀

 

I guess that Ossai is as good an option as Bills will have available, they are really in no mans land at 30 looking for DE or CB.  With what will be available at those positions, they have to at least consider other positions even if the need isn’t that big.

 

 

Darn! I missed Chase out hahaha. Good spot..... 

[OldTimer1960]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

Darn! I missed Chase out hahaha. Good spot..... 

I really enjoy reading your draft analysis- you clearly invest a lot of time and effort - much appreciated!

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I really enjoy reading your draft analysis- you clearly invest a lot of time and effort - much appreciated!

 

I've had a little re-jig - thanks for spotting. It is easy done, you get to a point where you are moving picks around and suddenly someone drops off totally haha. 

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner, as for the Bills, is this what do you think they should do if draft fell this way or what they would do?

 

If the former, didn't you say you prefer Eichenberg for us?

[HappyDays]

If the board falls that way I would expect the Bills to draft Jayson Oweh. Everything I read about him screams McDemott and Beane pick. The advantage that Ossai has is he apparently has very high character and leadership traits, loves the game, and is known to practice hard. I don't know where Oweh grades on those traits but we know those traits matter to this regime. If Ossai is the pick I would prefer it to be after a slight trade down. In this scenario maybe a team wants to trade up for Eichenberg or Mayfield or Leatherwood before the Chiefs pick. That's a realistic scenario I could see play out, if Beane wants to trade down for the first time ever.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

If the board falls that way I would expect the Bills to draft Jayson Oweh. Everything I read about him screams McDemott and Beane pick. The advantage that Ossai has is he apparently has very high character and leadership traits, loves the game, and is known to practice hard. I don't know where Oweh grades on those traits but we know those traits matter to this regime. If Ossai is the pick I would prefer it to be after a slight trade down. In this scenario maybe a team wants to trade up for Eichenberg or Mayfield or Leatherwood before the Chiefs pick. That's a realistic scenario I could see play out, if Beane wants to trade down for the first time ever.

 

I would be very anti Oweh. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

If the former, didn't you say you prefer Eichenberg for us?

 

You could make a convincing case that Eichenberg is the BPA at pick 30 in this scenario. But that would feel like a waste of a pick to me. OT is low on our list of needs. I'd much rather take a developmental player in the mid-rounds. We've seen Beane trade up when BPA and need aligh with a certain player; what we haven't seen is what he'll do when BPA and need DON'T align at our original pick. It could be a good opportunity for him to trade down if the clear BPA wouldn't help our team this year.

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I've had a little re-jig - thanks for spotting. It is easy done, you get to a point where you are moving picks around and suddenly someone drops off totally haha. 

Totally understand, I used to enjoy doing mocks as well.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner, as for the Bills, is this what do you think they should do if draft fell this way or what they would do?

 

If the former, didn't you say you prefer Eichenberg for us?

 

Mocks are predictions, so this is what I think they might do - based really on just the intel from the Texas pro day and the board falling that way. I'd consider Ossai as well, but yes... despite not having a positional "need" at tackle I'd consider Eich very strongly. 

[Rocky Landing]

Wondering what @GunnerBill and others' thoughts are on Jayson Oweh?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Rocky Landing said:

Wondering what @GunnerBill and others' thoughts are on Jayson Oweh?

 

His tape is very meh. 

[HappyDays]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I would be very anti Oweh. 

 

That's a sentiment I see shared by many on this board, but he fits the 1st round prototype this regime looks for.

 

Another scenario I could see if the board fell this way is the Bills trading up with the Steelers for Owusu-Koramoah. It would probably cost our 3rd round pick to do so.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's a sentiment I see shared by many on this board, but he fits the 1st round prototype this regime looks for.

 

Another scenario I could see if the board fell this way is the Bills trading up with the Steelers for Owusu-Koramoah. It would probably cost our 3rd round pick to do so.

 

He certainly fits the "toolsy" description... great athlete. Just very limited evidence of him being an elite prospect as a football player. 

[4merper4mer]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would be very anti Oweh. 

Aaron Maybinot flashbacks?

 

Also, if the Falcons are moving down 11 spots, they better get a hell of a lot more than that from NE.

[ghostwriter]

I have Sam Cosmi and Jackson Carman ahead of Liam Eichenberg.

[glazeduck]

Would be pretty tempted to try and move back a couple picks with Oweh and Ossai on the board, but if it breaks that way I’d be very okay with “reaching” a little oh Ossai. All we need out of a DE pick this season is a guy who can develop long-term but go hunt in passing situations. That’s ossai to a tee!

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Aaron Maybinot flashbacks?

 

Also, if the Falcons are moving down 11 spots, they better get a hell of a lot more than that from NE.

I hate that comparison.  Maybin weighed 220ish and was really productive, albeit for one season.  Oweh is 250+ and was never ever productive.  
 

I really hope oweh isn’t the pick, but I do think he’ll be on our board due to his overall athleticism

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Aaron Maybinot flashbacks?

 

Also, if the Falcons are moving down 11 spots, they better get a hell of a lot more than that from NE.

 

It is just under what the Dolphins got. They got two future firsts and a 3rd. A second this year and a future first is about equivalent to the two firsts. And then a 4th because the value gap is a bit smaller than the one the 49ers were bridging.