Gunner's 2021 FINAL Mock Draft on PAGE 21

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. I don't hide from it. I missed on Josh. Quote it to me any time. It is the most delighted I have ever been to have missed I can tell you that much. If that means you don't read anything else I write I'd suggest that is your loss but it is also your choice.

 

I don't have a problem reading anything you write; most of it agree with.  I'm bored tonight, so I am trolling through the archive folder on the day Josh was drafted.  Your take in comparison was pretty mild to many of the other posters.   At least you had the candor to own up to it.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

I don't have a problem reading anything you write; most of it agree with.  I'm bored tonight, so I am trolling through the archive folder on the day Josh was drafted.  Your take in comparison was pretty mild to many of the other posters.   At least you had the candor to own up to it.  

 

Never run from the ones you get wrong. 

 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Never run from the ones you get wrong. 

 

 

Later you said this, "Will I hope Allen fails? Of course I won't, I hope I have to eat an almighty bowl of crow. I hope I become known as the guy who doubted Josh Allen..."

 

...and you did, so kudos to you.

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Later you said this, "Will I hope Allen fails? Of course I won't, I hope I have to eat an almighty bowl of crow. I hope I become known as the guy who doubted Josh Allen..."

 

...and you did, so kudos to you.

 

 

I got the same "you are rooting against the Bills" when I said Mike Evans and Morgan Moses were going to be better pros than Sammy Watkins and Cyrus Koundjio too. On that occasion I was spared the crow. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Never run from the ones you get wrong. 

 

 

But have you filled out the Apology Form?

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But have you filled out the Apology Form?

 

 

Meh. I don't fill out forms. I have people for that.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

So you want to bring back the entirety of one of the worst run blocking lines in the league?  
 

Maybe it was the scheme....but maybe it wasn’t.  I’m really afraid to bring back the same line unless we can get Mongo for 4-5M and Williams 7-9M.  

 

It was also one of the best pass blocking lines in the league and I do put the blame in terms of the poor run blocking more so on a variety of factors. The first being the line shuffling around a lot, Mongo, Mitch, and Ford were shuffled around the lineup and Ike wasn't a consistent part of the line for half the season. The second as you mentioned being the scheme. The last being the success of the passing game leading to a lack of grinding down of defensive lines. It is a passing league and if I can retain Mongo for a deal similar to Spain (5-6 million aav) or just a tid bit more and Williams for 9-10 million aav I do it. I am willing to "overpay" a bit for Williams as I think he was arguably the best O-line player, is in his prime for his position (he will be 29 in 2021 and O-line players tend to play well into their early 30's) but I get the injury concern although he has been fairly healthy 3 out of the last 4 seasons, so I think that is overstated a bit. 

 

I think given your limited draft resources and the win now window it would be a mistake to draft a rookie up high for what could be a possible downgrade (certainly very risky given learning curve of O-line play in the league the past 10ish years) in play at a critical position. I am not saying you massively overpay for either but I give them each a good offer as I don't want to create holes for an O-line unit that was very good at protecting Josh and I think can be good at creating holes if they stay fairly healthy and adjust their scheme/game calling. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

It was also one of the best pass blocking lines in the league and I do put the blame in terms of the poor run blocking more so on a variety of factors. The first being the line shuffling around a lot, Mongo, Mitch, and Ford were shuffled around the lineup and Ike wasn't a consistent part of the line for half the season. The second as you mentioned being the scheme. The last being the success of the passing game leading to a lack of grinding down of defensive lines. It is a passing league and if I can retain Mongo for a deal similar to Spain (5-6 million aav) or just a tid bit more and Williams for 9-10 million aav I do it. I am willing to "overpay" a bit for Williams as I think he was arguably the best O-line player, is in his prime for his position (he will be 29 in 2021 and O-line players tend to play well into their early 30's) but I get the injury concern although he has been fairly healthy 3 out of the last 4 seasons, so I think that is overstated a bit. 

 

I think given your limited draft resources and the win now window it would be a mistake to draft a rookie up high for what could be a possible downgrade (certainly very risky given learning curve of O-line play in the league the past 10ish years) in play at a critical position. I am not saying you massively overpay for either but I give them each a good offer as I don't want to create holes for an O-line unit that was very good at protecting Josh and I think can be good at creating holes if they stay fairly healthy and adjust their scheme/game calling. 

Good points.  I just don’t want to see the same line out there again under the direction of Daboll.  I don’t want our season to depend on Feliciano having success vs Chris Jones.  He looked like a little boy being rag dolled by a bully.  It was embarrassing.  I hope they learned their lesson watching Josh run for his life as our season faded away.  The great pass blocking line you speak of, wasn’t so great vs the DL we’ll have to go through again next season.  The same defense that played dime the entire game because they knew our OL couldn’t open a hole in the run game to save their season.  
 

maybe a Daboll will switch up the scheme and find success with it. Their so-so defense dominated our offense two times last year.  It might be a fireable offense if our season ends in the same fashion with the same OL.  We were embarrassed.

[JGMcD2]

On 2/21/2021 at 4:44 AM, GunnerBill said:

30 Buffalo Bills – Greg Newsome, Cornerback, Northwestern

Talking of guys sneaking into round 1 Greg Newsome out of Northwestern is one of my biggest draft crushes. He is raw but his skillset is the dream combination of size, speed, athleticism and recognition skills is what NFL defensive coordinators dream of. He has the potential to form the best corner combination in the NFL with Tre White on the other side.

The more I read about this guy @GunnerBill, the more I’m falling in love. 
 

I didn’t think I wanted a CB in RD1, but I’d be extremely happy with Newsome at 30. Unfortunately, it looks like you’re right and he’s catching some helium in media outlets and across the league. 

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

The more I read about this guy @GunnerBill, the more I’m falling in love. 
 

I didn’t think I wanted a CB in RD1, but I’d be extremely happy with Newsome at 30. Unfortunately, it looks like you’re right and he’s catching some helium in media outlets and across the league. 

 

If all this mock did was cause people to go and actually look at this guy I will take that as a win. Really good prospect.

[JGMcD2]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If all this mock did was cause people to go and actually look at this guy I will take that as a win. Really good prospect.

I should add that I really enjoyed this mock draft. 
 

I’ve been poking around on here for years, but I’ve somehow never seen any of your mocks. It’s a shame, because this is impressive. 
 

I absolutely love content like this. I look forward to the rest of the series! 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

@GunnerBill.... have you ever mocked the bills in the 30s? 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

@GunnerBill.... have you ever mocked the bills in the 30s? 

 

Haha, nope. It is really hard because there are so many unknowns. There were a lot of years where you could narrow the Bills pick down to 3 or max 4 guys because of where they were. Makes a nice change!

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Haha, nope. It is really hard because there are so many unknowns. There were a lot of years where you could narrow the Bills pick down to 3 or max 4 guys because of where they were. Makes a nice change!

Did you mock Stefon Diggs last year? 😉

[John from Riverside]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. I don't hide from it. I missed on Josh. Quote it to me any time. It is the most delighted I have ever been to have missed I can tell you that much. If that means you don't read anything else I write I'd suggest that is your loss but it is also your choice.

Everyone misses....Gunner gets it right more often then not

[Bill from NYC]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Never run from the ones you get wrong. 

 

Wrong? I thought that when the Bills traded for Rob Johnson, he would lead us to a Superbowl. 

 

Keep doing what you're doing. 👍

[jlgarsh]

Great read, and putting this together must have taken hours! 
 

I just think if Harris or Etienne are there at 30, the Bills take the RB. Moss is a fine rotational back, but Singletary regressed badly year 2 and unless the Bills feel Antonio Williams can be the guy, they need a back desperately just to even hint at a running game.

[TheBeaneBandit]

18 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

Great read, and putting this together must have taken hours! 
 

I just think if Harris or Etienne are there at 30, the Bills take the RB. Moss is a fine rotational back, but Singletary regressed badly year 2 and unless the Bills feel Antonio Williams can be the guy, they need a back desperately just to even hint at a running game.

Not my first preference, but I'm good with Harris. It is a plug and play position so that is a plus too. 

[GunnerBill]

For what it is worth Matt Miller (formerly of Bleacher Report, now ESPN) has started his own subscription draft site and he posted his "What I would do" mock this morning and had the Bills taking Newsome at #31.

 

Zaven Collins went the pick before them at #29 to Green Bay for the big Collins fans.

[GunnerBill]

Here is the update..... version 2.0 (only 1 round this time) is here!!

 

1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Clemson

No change here. Lawrence is the Jaguars’ pick.

 

2 New York Jets – Zach Wilson, Quarterback, BYU

Sam Darnold has gone and the Jets are now locked in on Wilson.

 

3 San Francisco 49ers – Justin Fields, Quarterback, Ohio State

The 49ers didn’t trade up to #3 for any other position. This is to select a Quarterback. The question now is which one? I know all the buzz is Mac Jones but I have felt since I started on Fields’ tape that he is a perfect fit in a Shanahan style offense that simplifies reads while he develops as a reader of the field.

 

4 TRADE! New England Patriots – Trey Lance, Quarterback, North Dakota State (Patriots get #4; Falcons get #15, #46, #122 & 2022 1st round pick)

The Patriots have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason and they don’t have a toon of remaining needs but it matters for nothing without better quarterback play. If the 49ers are serious about holding onto Garoppolo then their only remaining option is the draft so they pay the piper and move up for Trey Lance.

 

5 Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, Offensive Tackle, Oregon

I have heard the rumours linking Ja’Marr Chase with Cincy and it would be a typical Bengals move. But I am going to give them more credit than they’re due here and stick with my prediction that they select Penei Sewell to protect Joe Burrow’s blindside for the next decade.

 

6 Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts, Tight End, Florida

Miami’s free agent addition of Will Fuller gives them the speedy separator at receiver that I think was an essential need. They could still add a further receiver at this spot but Kyle Pitts is almost a receiver and tight end rolled into one and is an intriguing option.

 

7 Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons, Linebacker, Penn State

Everyone has been mocking a wide receiver here and with good reason, the Lions’ top 3 options left in free agency. However, think back to the Dan Campbell press conference. Did that sound like a guy about to draft a receiver with his first pick? Or would a hard hitting linebacker (also a major need for Detroit) be more his style?

 

8 Carolina Panthers – Patrick Surtain, Cornerback, Alabama

There are two ways the Panthers could go here. They could add Rashawn Slater and plug him in at left tackle but this is a deep tackle class and they might be able to address the spot in round 2. It is a comparatively thin corner class outside of the round 1 guys and so they nab Surtain here, who has the highest floor in the draft and can be penciled in as a long term starter.

  

9 Denver Broncos – Rashawn Slater, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern

The Broncos could still go corner here even though they brought Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby in as free agents, but with Surtain gone and Caleb Farley’s back issue, I could see them passing and instead adding further strength to their offensive line. I would expect Slater to start at left tackle with Garrett Bolles sliding to the right side.

 

10 Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, Cornerback, South Carolina

Even before Farley’s injury I had heard that the Cowboys were really high on Horn. They have a desperate need at corner and he fits nicely in the scheme that new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn wants to run.

 

11 New York Giants – Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Alabama

Even with Kenny Golladay in the fold this is a need for the Giants. Waddle’s speed and ability to line up all over the formation is a good compliment for Golladay’s vertical threat.

 

12 Philadelphia Eagles – Ja’Marr Chase, Wide Receiver, LSU

The Eagles might have taken Jalon Reagor in the first-round last year but even if that works out longer term they still have a need for playmakers on the outside and the way the board has fallen Chase is easily the best player available.

 

13 Los Angeles Chargers – DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Alabama

The Chargers have a big need at tackle but it’s a good class and they might well be able to fill that spot in round two. Smith is the best player available and while the Chargers don’t have an immediate need at receiver, Mike Williams is a free agent after this season.

 

14 Minnesota Vikings – Kwity Paye, Edge Rusher, Michigan

The Vikings have a major need at edge. Other than Danielle Hunter, coming off a year away and surgery on a herniated disk, they have 7th rounders and undrafted free agents at the position. Paye is the best 4-3 end in the class.

 

15 (From New England) Atlanta Falcons – Caleb Farley, Cornerback, Virginia Tech

The Falcons have needs everywhere on the defensive side of the ball. I am not sure how Caleb Farley’s back is going to check out but his camp are describing his recent procedure as “minor”. It might be a risk the Falcons just have to take for a potential difference maker.

 

16 TRADE! Tennessee Titans – Gregory Rousseau, Edge Rusher, Miami (Titans get #16, Cardinals get #22, #85 & #100)

This trade works for three reasons… i. the Raiders, Dolphins and Colts are all teams who could be in the edge rusher market so you need to jump them; ii. the Titans tried and failed to address the position in free agency last year; iii. the Cardinals have no 3rd or 4th round picks in this draft and will be keen to replenish their stock in those middle rounds. Why Rousseau? I heard Mike Vrabel interviewed in the run up to the last draft and he said he really values length in edge rushers. Rousseau at 6’7 and with huge, long, arms fits the profile.

 

17 Las Vegas Raiders – Trevon Moehrig, Safety, TCU

The Raiders are a difficult team to predict but Moehrig is Mike Mayock’s type of football player. Smart, instinctive, flies to the football and forces turnovers. Two first round safeties in three drafts wouldn’t be great positional value though.

 

18 Miami Dolphins – Azeez Ojulari, Edge Rusher, Georgia

I mocked an edge rusher (Rousseau) here in v1.0 too but it makes even more sense to me now after Miami moved on from their two big 2020 free agent edge signings in Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson. I am not completely sold on the undersized Ojulari but he is a better fit for 3-4 teams like the Dolphins.

 

19 Washington Football Team – Christian Darrisaw, Offensive Tackle, Virginia Tech

I remain sold on this pick too. Left tackle is a big hole on a team that made the playoffs as a below .500 club but if they can sort out the Quarterback position they are not that many other pieces away. Darrisaw is not the finished article but his potential is sky high.

 

20 Chicago Bears – Mac Jones, Quarterback, Alabama

The Bears tried to sign Russell Wilson and ended up with Andy Dalton. I just don’t see how you can try and sell your fanbase on a Quarterback competition between Dalton and Nick Foles. If one of the five Quarterbacks falls this far you have to believe that Ryan Pace will feel the pressure to select him.

 

21 Indianapolis Colts – Greg Newsome, Cornerback, Northwestern

The Cots brough Xavier Rhodes back for another year but on a very modest contract and while he and 2019 2nd rounder Rock Ya-Sin mean the cupboard isn’t totally bare at corner they definitely need an upgrade. Newsome is raw but has elite coverage skills and feels like a Chris Ballard type of player.

 

22 (From Tennessee) Arizona Cardinals – Travis Etienne, Running Back, Clemson

The Cardinals have a need at corner and at interior offensive line but this is early for players at either spot. Kliff Kingsbury has his two big guys on the outside in D’Andre Hopkins and AJ Green but their offense needs explosive speed – and Travis Etienne is the man to bring that both running out of spread formations and as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

23 New York Jets – Alijah Vera-Tucker, Offensive Tackle, USC

The Jets spent their free agency dollars on the defense for the most part, while adding Corey Davis to 2020 2nd rounder Denzel Mims at wideout. Strangely though, given the Sam Darnold experience, they didn’t upgrade the protection for their latest franchise saviour at Quarterback. Vera-Tucker solidified himself as a first-round pick by looking equally dominant at left tackle in 2020 as he did at guard in 2019 and he could start either at guard or right tackle as a rookie.

 

24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, Running Back, Alabama

The Steelers brought Big Ben back and then re-signed Juju Smith-Schuster on a one-year deal. They are all in on a last ride in 2021 and to do that they have to find more offensive balance and so Harris makes sense as a scheme fit and an immediate upgrade at running back.

 

25 Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Linebacker, Notre Dame

Urban Meyer has always struck me as a guy who worries about what players can do and not what they can’t. I can imagine the Jags using JOK similarly to the way that the Chargers have used Derwin James – he might nominally start at safety but he would be let loose to go and make plays.

 

26 Cleveland Browns – Jaelen Phillips, Edge Rusher, Miami

The Browns need help on defense. I would, ordinarily, say that their back 7 is the greater need but with Olivier Vernon having departed the idea of plugging Phillips in opposite Myles Garrett might just be too good to pass on.

 

27 Baltimore Ravens – Terrace Marshall, Wide Receiver, LSU

The Ravens need more weapons for Lamar Jackson. The reason I see Marshall as a fit is his experience playing inside as a big slot. We know Jackson is a much better, more accomplished thrower inside the numbers and Marshall can run those tough routes across the middle and has the speed to go deep down the seam.

 

28 New Orleans Saints – Kelvin Joseph, Cornerback, Kentucky

The Saints are currently penciling in 33 year old journeyman Patrick Robinson in as their starter at corner opposite Marshon Lattimore and to make things worse Lattimore is playing on his 5th year option and their cap situation means a long term deal is tricky to do. Joseph is underrated and more than held his own against the best receivers in the SEC.

 

29 Green Bay Packers – Jamin Davis, Linebacker, Kentucky

It won’t impress Green Bay fans or Aaron Rodgers but I am going defense here and it is two Kentucky Wildcats in a row in the first round of the NFL draft! After letting Blake Martinez walk in free agency last offseason the interior linebacker spots were a major weakness in 2020, Davis is a beast and a day 1 upgrade.

 

30 Buffalo Bills – Joseph Ossai, Edge Rusher, Texas

This is not exactly the position the Bills would hope to find themselves in at #30 but a result of being a team in the hunt for a Superbowl is that you often end up without your first choice of players at end of round 1. We know that Dan Morgan was at the Texas pro day and very much focused on Ossai so maybe the Bills take a punt on the raw talent and athleticism here – even if he might not be a day 1 contributor.

 

31 Kansas City Chiefs – Liam Eichenburg, Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

Everyone knows the Chiefs need tackle help and I am going to go for Eichenburg ahead of Alex Leatherwood and Teven Jenkins because of his ability to man the blind side. He is a polished, high floor player who is capable of stepping in as an opening day starter.

 

32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, Defensive Tackle, Alabama

The Buccaneers success in 2020 was as much about their fearsome defensive front as it was about Tom Brady’s offense, but they are old up there. Vita Vea is locked in as their nose tackle but Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston are the starters at those end positions of the 3 man front and both are well into their 30s. Barmore would give them some youth in reserve and ready to take over in 2022.

 

 

Okay... I'm gonna put my hard hat on.... flame away!

 

Edited April 11, 2021 by GunnerBill