All_Pro_Bills Posted February 15, 2021 Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, RochesterRob said: I see a fair amount of flawed thinking here. Let's leave politics out of it and just talk technology. I see a lot of assumptions here that while the unwashed rural folk will be swept away never to be seen again that the cul-de-sac crowd will go onward and upward. Not so fast. Technology is expanding exponentially which is invisible to most people who are not specifically looking for it. Will a law firm keep on or add lawyers when AI develops to a point where an entity can prepare and execute cases for the managing partners instead of a living being? Will hospitals need a myriad of specialists when AI entities can perform diagnosis and implement procedures to heal patients? Will a manufacturing firm need to keep hiring engineers fresh out of college when AI can do the same work with far less chance of error? What's the 30 year old cul-de-sac resident going to do in 20 years when technology gives him a hard push out of his career. Consolidation is not going away whether it be in business, law, or medicine. I remember studying the concept of the big box chain store at college decades ago while most Americans blissfully shopped the local lumber company, hardware store, mom and pop grocery, and banked at the local First National Bank in their community. There are going to be flat out fewer opportunities for an increasing amount of people living in this country. Our economy is rooted in most Americans bringing home a paycheck. What happens when the paychecks ran out 5 years ago and savings is just about exhausted. Go ahead and talk to me like the buggy whip maker in 1925 who said automobiles will never fully replace the horse. Or the candlestick maker who said that there will still be a healthy market for candles. Or the chimney sweep who said that most Americans will keep on burning wood. Whether it be 2000 BC, 1492 AD, or Carnegie in 19th Century America the desire by the ruling class has been to take as much of the human factor out of making money as possible. I would agree that's one potential future but I'd ask you to consider the concept that human history and evolution is not linear but rather cyclical. Civilizations rise and fall like the grandeur of Roman Empire was followed by the depths of Dark Ages and then the enlightenment of the Renaissance. Economic booms are proceeded by economic busts and so forth. War leads to destruction while the following peace leads to a rebuilding. Progress does not follow some straight line extrapolation. That's why most forecasts of the future are wrong. The forecasters are thinking in a linear fashion and their models reflect this thinking. What you're describing is an evolution in not only technology but in the amount of energy that can be made available as more efficient and abundant sources become available. From brute force human labor all the way to petroleum and nuclear leading to the "green energy" movement of present day. I'd recommend reading "The Long Emergency" by Kunstler. The premise behind most of the authors conclusions is the oil age presented the human race with a one time endowment of an abundance of energy and once that is gone none of the available alternatives will replace it much less provide more energy for future expansion. While I don't agree with all of his conclusions it does raise a lot of interesting questions.
T master Posted February 15, 2021 Posted February 15, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: What freedoms have you lost? How? What’s changed? First it's freedoms we ALL have lost not just 1 but all !! Use to be you could take a man at his word and make a deal with a hand shake we use to leave our doors open at night we would even leave the screens open and be able to trust no one would break in wouldn't do that now and seldom locked the house . We use to walk miles down the road for halloween with out a worry of much of anything but getting candy - played hoops a quarter of a mile down the road every night road our bikes there and back also road them 7 miles to school & back you know any kids that do that today ? Too didn't have to worry back then about guns in school because we handled our disputes out side with our fists if need be and if by chance we got our dads guns (because we knew where every one of them were) we knew we would get a ass whipping you would never forget we were held accountable for your actions - Can't do that today it's politically incorrect to use negativity or discipline to raise a child correctly 🙄 Today if you discipline a kid if they need it which some not all do you are a child abuser for spanking them even if it's deserved , but no we'll just send them to time out or count to 3 which you never get to as to not have to get up and actually take care of your child & that's because the gov't is to far in a place where they don't belong and have tried to take over telling us how to be "Great (politically correct) Parent" ... Use to be you could have a preacher talk about verses in the Bible and not have it considered hate speech . Use to be if someone was trying to burn the American flag a true American would care enough to try and stop them Now the military that fight for that flag try to stop some one from disgracing the flag they will more than likely be jailed trying to stop said person from defacing the flag even though 100's of thousands have given their life for it but they burn it today like its just a rag with no meaning . Need any more ??? Edited February 15, 2021 by T master 1 1
US Egg Posted February 15, 2021 Posted February 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, T master said: First it's freedoms we ALL have lost not just 1 but all !! Use to be you could take a man at his word and make a deal with a hand shake we use to leave our doors open at night we would even leave the screens open and be able to trust no one would break in wouldn't do that now and seldom locked the house . We use to walk miles down the road for halloween with out a worry of much of anything but getting candy - played hoops a quarter of a mile down the road every night road our bikes there and back also road them 7 miles to school & back you know any kids that do that today ? Too didn't have to worry back then about guns in school because we handled our disputes out side with our fists if need be and if by chance we got our dads guns (because we knew where every one of them were) we knew we would get a ass whipping you would never forget we were held accountable for your actions - Can't do that today it's politically incorrect to use negativity or discipline to raise a child correctly 🙄 Today if you discipline a kid if they need it which some not all do you are a child abuser for spanking them even if it's deserved , but no we'll just send them to time out or count to 3 which you never get to as to not have to get up and actually take care of your child & that's because the gov't is to far in a place where they don't belong and have tried to take over telling us how to be "Great (politically correct) Parent" ... Use to be you could have a preacher talk about verses in the Bible and not have it considered hate speech . Use to be if someone was trying to burn the American flag a true American would care enough to try and stop them Now the military that fight for that flag try to stop some one from disgracing the flag they will more than likely be jailed trying to stop said person from defacing the flag even though 100's of thousands have given their life for it but they burn it today like its just a rag with no meaning . Need any more ??? How many in here would support what Rick Monday did? Survey says: ????? (my hand is up) 1 2
RochesterRob Posted February 15, 2021 Posted February 15, 2021 58 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: I would agree that's one potential future but I'd ask you to consider the concept that human history and evolution is not linear but rather cyclical. Civilizations rise and fall like the grandeur of Roman Empire was followed by the depths of Dark Ages and then the enlightenment of the Renaissance. Economic booms are proceeded by economic busts and so forth. War leads to destruction while the following peace leads to a rebuilding. Progress does not follow some straight line extrapolation. That's why most forecasts of the future are wrong. The forecasters are thinking in a linear fashion and their models reflect this thinking. What you're describing is an evolution in not only technology but in the amount of energy that can be made available as more efficient and abundant sources become available. From brute force human labor all the way to petroleum and nuclear leading to the "green energy" movement of present day. I'd recommend reading "The Long Emergency" by Kunstler. The premise behind most of the authors conclusions is the oil age presented the human race with a one time endowment of an abundance of energy and once that is gone none of the available alternatives will replace it much less provide more energy for future expansion. While I don't agree with all of his conclusions it does raise a lot of interesting questions. Please give me a prediction as to how you see the next 20-25 years. It will impact most people who are here on this board. The way of life is going to change. Nobody will be immune to it. At what point will it be that the federal government decide that you do not need money. That a basic provision will be handed out for a person to have the very basics in life such as food, clothing, transportation, etc. in a very subsistent life style and nothing more? 1
All_Pro_Bills Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 14 hours ago, RochesterRob said: Please give me a prediction as to how you see the next 20-25 years. It will impact most people who are here on this board. The way of life is going to change. Nobody will be immune to it. At what point will it be that the federal government decide that you do not need money. That a basic provision will be handed out for a person to have the very basics in life such as food, clothing, transportation, etc. in a very subsistent life style and nothing more? 20 years is a long time. And I'm no futurist. But I don't share some bleak and grey vision that people will simply serve no purpose other than to exist. I expect there will be enough thinking and independent individuals that will choose to make a different type of society. But in 20 years I don't think the Democratic or Republican parties will exist. I see the central government being and becoming more ineffective and losing a lot of its power so I don't see the "big brother" scenario playing out. Shopping malls will disappear. Some large scale war will have occurred or be in progress. We still won't have flying cars. Oil and gas will still be around. Green energy will be important but will not replace fossil fuel sources. A revival of nuclear power will present itself. All the social issues of today will appear unimportant and trivial relative to the challenges of the time. "Hard" skills will be a must. Globalization will give way to localization. Technology in science and medicine will continue to make progress but technology will not be revered with any God-like qualities to replace human interaction or control.
SoCal Deek Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned but there’s a real movement to abolish the entire notion of countries altogether. The American way of life? It’s entirely possible that there won’t be an America at all. It will be replaced with a border less single planet civilization all sharing resources in an effort to eliminate disease, poverty, income inequality, tribalism, and of course reverse climate change. And while that’s happening, behind the scenes a few powerfully well connected people will amass tremendous wealth and control.
RochesterRob Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said: 20 years is a long time. And I'm no futurist. But I don't share some bleak and grey vision that people will simply serve no purpose other than to exist. I expect there will be enough thinking and independent individuals that will choose to make a different type of society. But in 20 years I don't think the Democratic or Republican parties will exist. I see the central government being and becoming more ineffective and losing a lot of its power so I don't see the "big brother" scenario playing out. Shopping malls will disappear. Some large scale war will have occurred or be in progress. We still won't have flying cars. Oil and gas will still be around. Green energy will be important but will not replace fossil fuel sources. A revival of nuclear power will present itself. All the social issues of today will appear unimportant and trivial relative to the challenges of the time. "Hard" skills will be a must. Globalization will give way to localization. Technology in science and medicine will continue to make progress but technology will not be revered with any God-like qualities to replace human interaction or control. 20 years is not all that long a time and I am not all that old. I don't know how different that you could make society than what it is now versus what it was a couple of generations ago. There are only so many ways that you can derive food and only so many ways that you can have sex and we have explored the vast majority of them. Only so many ways to have altered conciouness. There is too much money and power to be had for certain people for a central government to fade away. More power plants are going to be needed to be built if we are going to have battery power vehicles. And nobody is talking about what needs to be done when a battery reaches the end of its useful life. Hard skills such as growing gardens and tending other plants? The trend is having very small space around most residences. Where is the land going to come from? Will people be driven off of their land so others may have use of it in the name of green revolution? Localization means a loss of power of globalists. They will not allow a long term trend to root down into the soil. Technology is god to many many people. I remember many years ago in my student residence that they could not do basic accounting in terms of charging rent and board without a computer to tabulate it on. We were talking at the most 20 people. The data entry into the computer was negligibly shorter than a paper based ledger accounting system.
All_Pro_Bills Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, RochesterRob said: 20 years is not all that long a time and I am not all that old. I don't know how different that you could make society than what it is now versus what it was a couple of generations ago. There are only so many ways that you can derive food and only so many ways that you can have sex and we have explored the vast majority of them. Only so many ways to have altered conciouness. There is too much money and power to be had for certain people for a central government to fade away. More power plants are going to be needed to be built if we are going to have battery power vehicles. And nobody is talking about what needs to be done when a battery reaches the end of its useful life. Hard skills such as growing gardens and tending other plants? The trend is having very small space around most residences. Where is the land going to come from? Will people be driven off of their land so others may have use of it in the name of green revolution? Localization means a loss of power of globalists. They will not allow a long term trend to root down into the soil. Technology is god to many many people. I remember many years ago in my student residence that they could not do basic accounting in terms of charging rent and board without a computer to tabulate it on. We were talking at the most 20 people. The data entry into the computer was negligibly shorter than a paper based ledger accounting system. Central governments and powerful monopolies do fade away or get removed or replaced. History is littered with such examples. Governments, empires, corporations, whole industries. I suspect citizens of Rome or Egypt or the Spanish and British empires, the Aztecs when the conquistadors arrived, or hundreds of Monarchs throughout history had expectations of power and control into the future forever. Then the Huns showed up at the city gates or the public lost faith and looked to other arrangements. Complex systems fail. Sometimes they fail because the cost of maintaining and running them exceeds the benefit. Sometimes they fail because people just lose faith in them. What is more inefficient and ineffective than the US government? How much faith do we have in the government to get anything right? I completely agree with you regarding Electric Vehicles. But I don't see the issue of where all this power generation to "fuel" the EV fleet is going to come from being discussed a lot. Just by doing some simple math. The US consumes about 9.3 million barrels of gasoline daily. At 44 gallons per barrel. One gallon of gasoline produces 44Kw of energy output. A standard 2x4 solar panel produces 1.5Kw per day. Ignoring efficiency factors one way or the other it would take 29 solar panels to replace the output of one gallon of gasoline. If my math is right it would require 269.7 million solar panels to replace one days gasoline consumption operating at spec to 1.5Kw. And as I'm not an electrical engineer or an expert on the efficiencies or inefficiencies of EV or the internal combustion engine I'd leave it to those experts to derive an exact number. Whatever the specific number might be its a big one. As such I think the 100% EV fleet idea is a wild fantasy absent some massive amount of new uninterruptible generation capacity.
RochesterRob Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 3 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Central governments and powerful monopolies do fade away or get removed or replaced. History is littered with such examples. Governments, empires, corporations, whole industries. I suspect citizens of Rome or Egypt or the Spanish and British empires, the Aztecs when the conquistadors arrived, or hundreds of Monarchs throughout history had expectations of power and control into the future forever. Then the Huns showed up at the city gates or the public lost faith and looked to other arrangements. Complex systems fail. Sometimes they fail because the cost of maintaining and running them exceeds the benefit. Sometimes they fail because people just lose faith in them. What is more inefficient and ineffective than the US government? How much faith do we have in the government to get anything right? I completely agree with you regarding Electric Vehicles. But I don't see the issue of where all this power generation to "fuel" the EV fleet is going to come from being discussed a lot. Just by doing some simple math. The US consumes about 9.3 million barrels of gasoline daily. At 44 gallons per barrel. One gallon of gasoline produces 44Kw of energy output. A standard 2x4 solar panel produces 1.5Kw per day. Ignoring efficiency factors one way or the other it would take 29 solar panels to replace the output of one gallon of gasoline. If my math is right it would require 269.7 million solar panels to replace one days gasoline consumption operating at spec to 1.5Kw. And as I'm not an electrical engineer or an expert on the efficiencies or inefficiencies of EV or the internal combustion engine I'd leave it to those experts to derive an exact number. Whatever the specific number might be its a big one. As such I think the 100% EV fleet idea is a wild fantasy absent some massive amount of new uninterruptible generation capacity. You know what Egypt, Rome, Spain, and the British lacked that governments have today? Rapid communication and surveillance. Plus today's governments have the benefit of learning history even if the population under them is ignorant of history. Had King John modern communication and surveillance he would never have agreed to the Magna Carta as he would know what most of his opponents were up to. Plus he would employ hot wenches as spies to gather information on what the various dukes and earls were complaining about relative to the king.
SoCal Deek Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 51 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: You know what Egypt, Rome, Spain, and the British lacked that governments have today? Rapid communication and surveillance. Plus today's governments have the benefit of learning history even if the population under them is ignorant of history. Had King John modern communication and surveillance he would never have agreed to the Magna Carta as he would know what most of his opponents were up to. Plus he would employ hot wenches as spies to gather information on what the various dukes and earls were complaining about relative to the king. Are you saying King John knew Fang Fang? 😉
T master Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 12:11 PM, Tiberius said: What freedoms have you lost? How? What’s changed? Still waiting for your reply to what i wrote about this at least do the thumbs down thing if you can't think of a response i know you've read it by now . Same as it ever was ...
Big Gun Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 (edited) On 2/16/2021 at 8:50 AM, SoCal Deek said: I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned but there’s a real movement to abolish the entire notion of countries altogether. The American way of life? It’s entirely possible that there won’t be an America at all. It will be replaced with a border less single planet civilization all sharing resources in an effort to eliminate disease, poverty, income inequality, tribalism, and of course reverse climate change. And while that’s happening, behind the scenes a few powerfully well connected people will amass tremendous wealth and control. That's the leftist goal. What could go wrong there..... Edited February 17, 2021 by Big Gun
oldmanfan Posted February 17, 2021 Author Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, T master said: First it's freedoms we ALL have lost not just 1 but all !! Use to be you could take a man at his word and make a deal with a hand shake we use to leave our doors open at night we would even leave the screens open and be able to trust no one would break in wouldn't do that now and seldom locked the house . We use to walk miles down the road for halloween with out a worry of much of anything but getting candy - played hoops a quarter of a mile down the road every night road our bikes there and back also road them 7 miles to school & back you know any kids that do that today ? Too didn't have to worry back then about guns in school because we handled our disputes out side with our fists if need be and if by chance we got our dads guns (because we knew where every one of them were) we knew we would get a ass whipping you would never forget we were held accountable for your actions - Can't do that today it's politically incorrect to use negativity or discipline to raise a child correctly 🙄 Today if you discipline a kid if they need it which some not all do you are a child abuser for spanking them even if it's deserved , but no we'll just send them to time out or count to 3 which you never get to as to not have to get up and actually take care of your child & that's because the gov't is to far in a place where they don't belong and have tried to take over telling us how to be "Great (politically correct) Parent" ... Use to be you could have a preacher talk about verses in the Bible and not have it considered hate speech . Use to be if someone was trying to burn the American flag a true American would care enough to try and stop them Now the military that fight for that flag try to stop some one from disgracing the flag they will more than likely be jailed trying to stop said person from defacing the flag even though 100's of thousands have given their life for it but they burn it today like its just a rag with no meaning . Need any more ??? These ae not freedoms as in freedoms guaranteed by our Constitution, these are ways of life that have changed. And I wish some hadn't. I agree about kids being trusted to be more responsible back in my day. We would go out the door after breakfast in the summer, be home for lunch and dinner, and other than that we played and Mom wasn't arranging play dates. Too much helicopter parenting now. As for other things you mention, locking your door was either done or not done depending on where you lived. I had my share of fights back then, but no one had the relative easy availability of guns with multiple shot magazines as they do now. That is a sad part of today's society; we have freedom guaranteed to bear arms but I would argue as did Justice Scalia that you do not have the right to bear any arm you want. Parents should be allowed to parent, but they should not be allowed to beat up their kid, and that should not have been allowed in my day either. There is a difference between discipline and abuse. As for the flag, I applaud what Rick Monday did, but also stand up for the right of someone to burn the flag in protest as detestable as I find that practice. And as for preachers, I am all for preachers like my pastor, who preaches the Gospel and Christ's teaching every Sunday, who preaches of a God of love who asks His children to serve others in His name, as opposed to the so-called evangelical preachers who are nothing but politicians hiding in a preacher's clothes and who don't have the slightest clue what evangelism in His name means. So we agree on some things and not on others. But I would argue that my basic freedoms as granted by our Constitution have not changed through the years. 1
Tiberius Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, T master said: Still waiting for your reply to what i wrote about this at least do the thumbs down thing if you can't think of a response i know you've read it by now . Same as it ever was ... I’m sorry, totally forgot. What freedoms did you lose? What oppression are you suffering from? I’ll be back in awhile to see answer. I mean if AOC hasn’t already arrested you yet
Tiberius Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, T master said: First it's freedoms we ALL have lost not just 1 but all !! Use to be you could take a man at his word and make a deal with a hand shake we use to leave our doors open at night we would even leave the screens open and be able to trust no one would break in wouldn't do that now and seldom locked the house . What?? When was this? When was there no crime? Did you realize that the crime rate is way down from the 90's?
T master Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Tiberius said: I’m sorry, totally forgot. What freedoms did you lose? What oppression are you suffering from? I’ll be back in awhile to see answer. I mean if AOC hasn’t already arrested you yet If you would have read the reply i referenced you would know but As usual you just don't pay attention to any thing but what fits or just pass over it ! I haven't been arrested because i obey the laws but i'm sure there is someone out there that could twist my thoughts or words into something they don't like ! I'm oppressed by the lack of common sense interjected in rational thought or conversation by career politicians .
Tiberius Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, T master said: We use to walk miles down the road for halloween with out a worry of much of anything but getting candy - played hoops a quarter of a mile down the road every night road our bikes there and back also road them 7 miles to school & back you know any kids that do that today ? I see kids out playing all the time. We have hoop courts down the road that kids are always playing at. We have Holloween still. What are you talking about? On 2/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, T master said: Too didn't have to worry back then about guns in school because we handled our disputes out side with our fists if need be and if by chance we got our dads guns (because we knew where every one of them were) we knew we would get a ass whipping you would never forget we were held accountable for your actions - Can't do that today it's politically incorrect to use negativity or discipline to raise a child correctly 🙄 You want more fighting? Huh? And, gun violence is nothing new. Gun massacres are more common, though. We also have more safeguards to protect women from drunk abusive husbands, thanks to liberals. That's a good thing, right? The Violence Against Women Act was real good. Agreed?
Tiberius Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, T master said: Today if you discipline a kid if they need it which some not all do you are a child abuser for spanking them even if it's deserved , but no we'll just send them to time out or count to 3 which you never get to as to not have to get up and actually take care of your child & that's because the gov't is to far in a place where they don't belong and have tried to take over telling us how to be "Great (politically correct) Parent" ... Can you give us examples of this? My friends children are super well behaved, respectful and nice. They don't seem to need beaten on. Hitting kids is generally stupid, teaches them that violence solves problems. It doesn't. But are there lots of examples of simple spankings resulting in arrests of parents? I have seen cases of child abuse, serious, horrible abuse, where parents complained they were not allowed to "discipline" their kids. Would you let a teacher punch your child in school if he/she were acting up?
T master Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Tiberius said: I see kids out playing all the time. We have hoop courts down the road that kids are always playing at. We have Holloween still. What are you talking about? Your definitely 1 of a kind i just hope they broke the mold ! A fool takes no pleasure in understanding, but only in expressing his opinion !!
Tiberius Posted February 17, 2021 Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, T master said: Use to be you could have a preacher talk about verses in the Bible and not have it considered hate speech . What?? Where, at a Klan rally? What are you talking about here? Just now, T master said: Your definitely 1 of a kind i just hope they broke the mold ! A fool takes no pleasure in understanding, but only in expressing his opinion !! Lol, you just described yourself.
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