glazeduck Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) This is shaping up to be an extremely interesting offseason... On the one hand, we're now one of the best teams in the league, with most of the necessary foundational pieces to truly compete for a title. On the other hand, we have a lot of needs to address, limited cap space, and a back-of-the-round draft slot. I had a longer version of this written out but it became a tl/dr post, so instead of going super deep into my thinking, here's how I'd like us to approach the offseason, philosophy and examples or specifics... Needs (not necessarily in priority order): #2 CB: While a Patrick Peterson would be sweet, McBeane's shown their abilities to evaluate and find underrated CBs. Because of that (even though it's arguably our biggest need), shouldn't be a big "spend" -- I'd look for a younger, mid-tier, high-upside CB that would excel in our zone scheme (Kevin King, Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard, just a few examples) Milano replacement: Another spot I think you'll find "value" at -- need a guy who excels in coverage. Thomas Davis is the name that instantly stands out for obvious reasons, but Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mychal Kendricks, Malcolm Smith, and Todd Davis might all fit the bill at a reasonable cost as well. Pass Rush: This to me is our most glaring need, it's also the most difficult to come by. If there's a reasonable option in the draft, I'd be open to it, but usually those guys go top-15. Ryan Kerrigan or Olivier Vernon might offer the best combo of affordability/availability/performance for the value. On the interior, it's looking like Kawaan Short might get released, again, obvious reasons why that might make sense. OL Help: sounds like retaining Mongo is a matter of working out the #, who knows with Williams, and obviously Ford will be back. Barring a surprise cut, I'm not sure this is a position that we'll see a lot of change in (unless Williams bolts). Kelechi Osemele is someone who might be worth looking into, on the older side of things, but he's a road grader when healthy. Safety depth: This is an underrated one for me. Both Poyer and Hyde are getting up there in years and as others have pointed out, both have reasonably large cap hits. Malik Booker is a guy who I would LOVE to see us sign. He'll probably be more expensive than a lesser need like this should afford, due to his top-10 draft pedigree, but if we can get him cheap enough, I think he'd thrive under McDermott. Absent that, there are a number of lesser-rated CBs in the draft that I think would be tremendous safeties (DD Lenoir, Shaun Wade, Olijiah Griffin, to name a few) TE: While this is absolutely not our most pressing need, it's where I'd love to see us swing big. The TE FA sucks and we just saw what having an impact TE can do for your offense. It'd be costly, but I'd love to see us put a package of picks together to go get Kyle Pitts. He's big, so he'd help in the RZ and on short-distance plays, he's fast and agile so he'd help in stretching the field vertically, he's basically a big-bodied WR and TE in one. We saw what this offense can do with one great receiving weapon, imagine adding that element... RB: If we swing big on Pitts, this would either have to be a vet-min guy or later rd draft pick. I'm sure a lot of you like Patterson, but to me, the best RB in this draft, relative to where he'll be drafted is Jermar Jefferson. That said, there's a number of guys who could probably be had in the 5th/6th range that could work (Jefferson, Sermon, Hubbard) Other: Josh Dobbs for backup QB Late rd. draft depth guys -- swing for the fences: Joshua Kaindoah, Jonathan Adams Jr., EDIT: Nico Collins will also be severely under-drafted. Edited February 12, 2021 by glazeduck 2 1 5
Aussie Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Pitts is a pipe dream unfortunately.... he will get picked in the Top 10 and Beane isn’t trading 2022 Number 1 and other picks to move up that far... 2 2
glazeduck Posted February 12, 2021 Author Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Pitts is a pipe dream unfortunately.... he will get picked in the Top 10 and Beane isn’t trading 2022 Number 1 and other picks to move up that far... IF he goes that high, then I agree, we can only afford to swing so big. That said, QBs, LTs and pass rushers always get pushed up the board. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw all go ahead of him, and it's conceivable that Mac Jones, an edge rusher or two, another OT or two, and Waddle or Chase go ahead of him too. Would have to work out right for us, but if he were there at 12 or 13, it'd be worth our 1, 2 and 3, I think. 1
Rc2catch Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Kawann short has played like 3 games in 2 years or something. And if I recall is 10+ million in dead cap for Carolina to cut. I think corner is ok if wallace is here plus Dane Siran and taron. I think safety is ok, we have Jaquan still and I think Siran Neal was a safety in college and was converted here. I’m sure we’ll add one or bring Marlowe back. Pass rush is 100% priority #1 whoever that may be. I think milanos spot will get filled in the draft paired with Klein and maybe a really low tier free agent. Tight end we have to sign probably at least one. I like Everett from LA. I’d even toss a couple bucks at Jordan reed even with the health concerns. I want Kalif Raymond from Tennessee. Kid killed us in our game against them and I think his speed would be huge here in mckenzies role. Im not as concerned for running backs, I’d like a speedy guy who can return as well if needed. A young Taiwan Jones would be ideal in lower draft rounds. 1
First Round Bust Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) excellent research but your spending cash that we really dont have, for starters I prefer focus on our own FAs esp the RFA - Ike B, Isiah WR, Wallace CB, punter. I would also extend Hyde FA 2022 for 1 year and determine if I can sign Josh to that big extension this season or not, sooner the better as it only goes up every year for QBs and we save millions during a 6-7 year extension for Josh Its a quality year for tackles so I can see us dropping from pick 30 into early second round to get more mid-round picks like a 4th that we dont have currently so we can grab a sleeper TE: I like Tony Poljan who transfer from 1. playing qb to TE 2. to UVA from Cent Mich - kid is smart, 6-7 and 265 - has arm length and body to run block and to shield defenders to make short-yardage or red zone catches while covered..has the body of Gronk more or less https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tony-poljan-1.html Edited February 12, 2021 by First Round Bust 1 1 1
Aussie Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, glazeduck said: Would have to work out right for us, but if he were there at 12 or 13, it'd be worth our 1, 2 and 3, I think. I think we need the 2nd and 3rd this year in particular with lower cap and available space and no 4th either... Edited February 12, 2021 by Aussie Joe 2
glazeduck Posted February 12, 2021 Author Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I think we need the 2nd and 3rd this year in particular with lower cap and available space Kind of the crux of my post, right? What strategy would you take in filling our needs. To me, if you can package 1, 2, and 3 and get Pitts and, say 2 6s back, I think that'd be a massive win. Our personnel dept. has shown an ability to mine gold from a number of different positions (CB, S, OT, specifically) so for me it's "fill in the other gaps in FA, swing for the fences on a true impact guy, and build depth through sleeper picks". To me, the biggest thing holding this whole thing back is another true difference maker -- whether its Pitts, Waddle or a pass rusher they deem is elite (and somehow gettable via trade-up), I think that's a move you have to make. Edited February 12, 2021 by glazeduck 1 2 1
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) Here's my take: O-Line: I'd let Brown walk and use that money to sign Mongo, good chance that happens. Not so sure about Williams, think he'll cost too much so instead will extend Morse contract to reduce his cap hit for this season to free up some money. We'd then have decent starters and depth inside, but would draft a tackle in the 1st or 2nd round and sign a FA tackle for backup depth. Defensive line: I don't like the idea of going after a pass rusher in the draft makes much sense as those are two positions that take some time to excel at and we need good production and improvement in 2021. Instead I'd cut Addison and either Butler or Jefferson. The money saved would be close to $16 mil. With that I'd sign an experienced top edge rusher like a Ngakoue for around that amount. Mid round draft a true replacement for Star and give him a year to develop. Whichever of the combo of Butler or Jefferson that they keep, I'd redo his contract to save a couple million in 2021 TE: Similar to pass rusher, it takes too long to develop a rookie TE so would try and sign someone like J Smith. Could likely come up with enough money to sign him by redoing some contracts, Hyde, Matakevich, Beasley, Klein, Hughes, maybe throw in Diggs and cutting some other players like Smith I'd try and resign McKenzie, he can take Roberts place as a return man but also contribute to the offense so less of a wasted roster slot. I'd let Jones go as Gilliam can fill his role on ST. Certainly sign most of the RFA like Wallace, Boettger, and Bojorquez. The one slot I haven't yet mentioned is Milano. Would try to sign him, but with money as tight as it is not sure they can. Overall LB doesn't have much depth so would try to figure out a way to keep him, but nut sure they can. May end up losing him and Williams. Not to worried about Williams as he can be replaced quickly in draft. LB not so sue we'll get lucky again. Maybe the number make it easier to sign Williams and Mongo, and let Milano walk then instead draft a CB and LB 1st two rounds. My only concern then is we're bringing back the same O line that didn't do a very good job of run blocking. As mentioned earlier I'd use 1st or 2nd round pick on tackle and use the other on either LB, CB and also try to sign vet CB Edited February 12, 2021 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch 1
Aussie Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, glazeduck said: Kind of the crux of my post, right? What strategy would you take in filling our needs. To me, if you can package 1, 2, and 3 and get Pitts and, say 2 6s back, I think that'd be a massive win. Our personnel dept. has shown an ability to mine gold from a number of different positions (CB, S, OT, specifically) so for me it's "fill in the other gaps in FA, swing for the fences on a true impact guy, and build depth through sleeper picks". Giving up that draft capital is too splashy for me this year... I hate trying to speculate now on the draft because it’s kinda pointless until we see what the outcome of FA is... However, I would hope they re- sign Williams, an upgrade at DE and an LB to replace Milano if he likely walks ... I’d consider a restructure of Brown and let Feliciano walk and cut Jefferson , Addison and Butler ... This leaves in no particular order for the draft holes at G, CB2, DT and TE ( less splashy than Pitts) and I wouldn’t hate them taking another swing at C, RB and DE with guys they can find on Day 3
PrimeTime101 Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Our pass rush starts with the inside out. there are a couple DT that are over paid that give us around 13.5 mil we can with ease get a good one tech DT that will make Oliver better, then the DE's better then domino effect starts Oline... Beanie is going to have to be a magician here in FA ... cap issues... going to have to make it happen and find us a better guard at the very least. HB round one top 2.. The Draft gods told me one of them will drop to us... hopefully A second Quality CB this may be a pipe dream this year... there is to much to get before they touch cb,, Next man up here. Second round Edge guy will finish solving our DL woes. WR Davis will fill shoes for #2 for now unless a WR is begging to come to Buffalo at a good price... which I can see happening. FA LB.. same quality as a Milano 5th year option on Allen followed by a 5 year 41 mil a year deal. Rounds 3+ LB, G By doing all of this we.. A. Make our Offense Dynamic B. Solidify our front 4 C. Have the look of a more complete team. Unless our GM can't figure out some Magic on our O'Line, we may struggle here again. IF a top 2 RB does not fall to us it will change everything. G round 1 Edge round 2 And we will find out with a better line if our RB's can stand on our own 2 feet.
glazeduck Posted February 12, 2021 Author Posted February 12, 2021 56 minutes ago, Rc2catch said: Kawann short has played like 3 games in 2 years or something. And if I recall is 10+ million in dead cap for Carolina to cut. I think corner is ok if wallace is here plus Dane Siran and taron. I think safety is ok, we have Jaquan still and I think Siran Neal was a safety in college and was converted here. I’m sure we’ll add one or bring Marlowe back. Pass rush is 100% priority #1 whoever that may be. I think milanos spot will get filled in the draft paired with Klein and maybe a really low tier free agent. Tight end we have to sign probably at least one. I like Everett from LA. I’d even toss a couple bucks at Jordan reed even with the health concerns. I want Kalif Raymond from Tennessee. Kid killed us in our game against them and I think his speed would be huge here in mckenzies role. Im not as concerned for running backs, I’d like a speedy guy who can return as well if needed. A young Taiwan Jones would be ideal in lower draft rounds. Everett is the only TE I'd have even a modicum of interest in as a FA. Even then, if he was going to be a consistent weapon in the passing game that would've happened by now...
Big Turk Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 I wouldn't day we have a "lot" of needs. We have some places we can upgrade but this is still a pretty solid roster as is.
Richard Noggin Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 7 hours ago, First Round Bust said: excellent research but your spending cash that we really dont have, for starters I prefer focus on our own FAs esp the RFA - Ike B, Isiah WR, Wallace CB, punter. I would also extend Hyde FA 2022 for 1 year and determine if I can sign Josh to that big extension this season or not, sooner the better as it only goes up every year for QBs and we save millions during a 6-7 year extension for Josh Its a quality year for tackles so I can see us dropping from pick 30 into early second round to get more mid-round picks like a 4th that we dont have currently so we can grab a sleeper TE: I like Tony Poljan who transfer from 1. playing qb to TE 2. to UVA from Cent Mich - kid is smart, 6-7 and 265 - has arm length and body to run block and to shield defenders to make short-yardage or red zone catches while covered..has the body of Gronk more or less https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tony-poljan-1.html Consistently mocked in the 6th or 7th round. I'm at least interested at that price. Bills have five picks in the final three rounds, and realistically they need to find at least one or two eventual contributors (not sure how that desired and loosely defined "hit"-rate (40%) compares to NFL averages for Day Three picks).
Dr.Sack Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 The Bills have never had a 1,000 yard TE. Dawson Knox is a good athlete but I can never see him turned into a consistent 500 yard a season player. If the Bills want to hoist a Lombardi they need to find a great TE.
papazoid Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 we need to upgrade 6 starters.....that's alot #2 corner, milano replacement, DE, OG, TE, RB
GunnerBill Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 9 hours ago, glazeduck said: IF he goes that high, then I agree, we can only afford to swing so big. That said, QBs, LTs and pass rushers always get pushed up the board. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw all go ahead of him, and it's conceivable that Mac Jones, an edge rusher or two, another OT or two, and Waddle or Chase go ahead of him too. Would have to work out right for us, but if he were there at 12 or 13, it'd be worth our 1, 2 and 3, I think. I love Kyle Pitts. He is only the 2nd tight end ever I have given a true 1st round grade to and by far the best tight end prospect I have evaluated. But trading up significantly for a tight end is just bad strategy. The positional value isn't there. 1
machine gun kelly Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 12 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Giving up that draft capital is too splashy for me this year... I hate trying to speculate now on the draft because it’s kinda pointless until we see what the outcome of FA is... However, I would hope they re- sign Williams, an upgrade at DE and an LB to replace Milano if he likely walks ... I’d consider a restructure of Brown and let Feliciano walk and cut Jefferson , Addison and Butler ... This leaves in no particular order for the draft holes at G, CB2, DT and TE ( less splashy than Pitts) and I wouldn’t hate them taking another swing at C, RB and DE with guys they can find on Day 3 Agreed Joe. Last year there were little bundling of picks league wide due to Covid, and I don’t expect it to change this year. Beane’s going match need/value, which is why it’s more likely we do take a RB in the first as we are at the end of every round. You’re not going to get the best TE, EDGE R, of even CB at 30. You could get one of the best RB’s. 1
Mr. WEO Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) If McBeane are so talented at evaluating and finding underrated CBs, why are they still looking for a #2 CB? And...Josh Norman?? Edited February 13, 2021 by Mr. WEO
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted February 13, 2021 Posted February 13, 2021 'Addressing our needs...' When Bride the Second says this, I generally go hide in the tool shed.
RyanC883 Posted February 14, 2021 Posted February 14, 2021 16 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I love Kyle Pitts. He is only the 2nd tight end ever I have given a true 1st round grade to and by far the best tight end prospect I have evaluated. But trading up significantly for a tight end is just bad strategy. The positional value isn't there. i get the positional value argument. but if he is that good, perhaps the value to this team is there? 12 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: If McBeane are so talented at evaluating and finding underrated CBs, why are they still looking for a #2 CB? And...Josh Norman?? Jackson was a good pickup. I think he js the no.2 next year.
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