Texans releasing JJ Watt

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know that I agree Milano can be replaced/upgraded so easily from the draft. 

 

I think he has made himself into an impact player and you're not going to get his level of savvy from a rookie.

 

The double-edged sword of Milano was revealed this season though.  When he's an integral part of the Bills defense and they depend upon him for a bunch of stuff that "next man up" can't do as well, it's a problem if they can't count on him to stay healthy.

 

The other thing is that he and Edmunds are both players who seem to do what they do in part with "zone eyes", and that made them easy prey for a QB with "lying eyes" like Mahomes to manipulate. 

 

In an ideal world, we would keep Milano AND upgrade our DL/Pass rush substantially - but then there is still that "double edged sword" of depending upon Milano and perhaps not being able to "plug and play" a replacement - and whether the scheme we evolved into with him is "good, but not good enough" to beat a team like KC.

 

Interesting times.

 

 

So I both agree and disagree with this Hap. I agree in the sense that I think people have resigned themselves to Milano moving on and are now allowing themselves to believe that Milano is just a role player who didn't add much to the defense. That 100% undervalues him and it is not just as easy as go pluck any random will linebacker who walks across your path out of the draft. What I will say is because that smaller, faster, coverage style player at will isn't a fit in every system (not even in every 4-3 defense) they do tend to get pushed up the draft board less. That is how we ended up with Matt Milano initially. His instincts and coverage skills were all there at Boston College but teams looked and said, too small or not enough range for other schemes. So it isn't going to be easy to replace Matt with someone as good, definitely. But we will have a chance to find another diamond in the rough if our scouts have been out there looking for it and anticipating this becoming a need. 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Only quoting this line @Shaw66 because I think it is an interesting comparison for where the Bills are now. Frank Clark is overpaid. Not just a little bit overpaid. A lot overpaid. His cap number was top 3 for defensive ends in 2020 and is #1 for defensive ends in 2021. He had only 6 sacks and 9 hurries in 2020. The Chiefs also overpaid to sign him. They traded a 1st and a 2nd and swapped 3rds. It was a significant overpay. But they said "we need an upgrade at edge rusher, we are in a window, sod the cost let's do it."

 

I don't think the Frank Clark trade when you consider cost, contract and production will ever be considered good value. But hey, the Chiefs needed an upgrade on the edge they got an upgrade on the edge and they won a Superbowl. I'm not sure a 32 year old JJ Watt on a 2 year $24m contract, and playing in a different scheme than the one he has played his whole career is particularly great value (though it is better than Clark!) The point is the Bills need an upgrade on the Dline and it might be worth overpaying the real world value to try and force them over the top. 

 

I still think a better fit is someone who is more of a speedy, bendy, outside 4-3 end, but JJ Watt is available and if he stays healthy he can still impact football games. If he comes to Buffalo then he will be judged as much on whether he is the missing piece as he is on whether he ever lives up to a pure economic value. 

Age and past injury concerns are legitimate worries.
 

While Watt has played DE in a 34 scheme predominantly, it is worth noting that he has played in one-gap 34 schemes as opposed to the two-gap variation. Going from playing a one-gap 34 DE scheme to playing a one-gap 43 DE scheme is not a concern at all, especially with a player of Watt’s athleticism. Besides, given the specialization in today’s game, teams are all playing a combination of different fronts during the course of a game, anyway. The Bills and Browns wouldn’t be pursuing Watt if he weren’t a scheme fit. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Age and past injury concerns are legitimate worries.
 

While Watt has played DE in a 34 scheme predominantly, it is worth noting that he has played in one-gap 34 schemes as opposed to the two-gap variation. Going from playing a one-gap 34 DE scheme to playing a one-gap 43 DE scheme is not a concern at all, especially with a player of Watt’s athleticism. Besides, given the specialization in today’s game, teams are all playing a combination of different fronts during the course of a game, anyway. The Bills and Browns wouldn’t be pursuing Watt if he weren’t a scheme fit. 

 

I think he can play in this scheme. He is JJ Watt. He can play in anything. I am not as sold as you that he will be as effective in it. 

[K-9]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he can play in this scheme. He is JJ Watt. He can play in anything. I am not as sold as you that he will be as effective in it. 

If he were younger and without the past injury concerns, I would make an argument as to why he’d be more effective as a DE in a 43 scheme. But that’s a moot point at this juncture. Suffice to say, I agree that he can play in any scheme and I’ll leave it at that. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

If he were younger and without the past injury concerns, I would make an argument as to why he’d be more effective as a DE in a 43 scheme. But that’s a moot point at this juncture. Suffice to say, I agree that he can play in any scheme and I’ll leave it at that. 

 

If he were younger and without past injury concerns we wouldn't be having the discussion. Peak JJ Watt was super elite. Those players excel in anything.

[K-9]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If he were younger and without past injury concerns we wouldn't be having the discussion. Peak JJ Watt was super elite. Those players excel in anything.

Age and health are certainly relevant, regardless of what scheme he ends up playing in, so I see them as his only limiting factors. We agree he has the ability to play in any scheme, so I guess I’m curious as to why you raised the issue of Watt “... playing in a different scheme than the one he’s played his whole career” as a concern.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Age and health are certainly relevant, regardless of what scheme he ends up playing in, so I see them as his only limiting factors. We agree he has the ability to play in any scheme, so I guess I’m curious as to why you raised the issue of Watt “... playing in a different scheme than the one he’s played his whole career” as a concern.

 

 

 

Because I don't think he has the speed and bend to really be that constant edge presence which is what I think our need is. He will upgrade our D as a part of the rotation playing some base end and then reducing down to 3T in obvious pass situations but I think maximum effectiveness he'd have been able to be a dominant rusher either from the 7 or even the 9T in this scheme. I am not sure he is going to be able to be that now. Doesn't mean I am not interested in the Bills having him... but he isn't the perfect scheme fit as compared to our scheme need. 

[LabattBlue]

16 hours ago, DJB said:

Anyone remember how many pages the Mario Williams thread was? 

 

Will this one surpass it?

 

[ndirish1978]

I just realized that I was more excited about Mario than I am about JJ Watt... must be the age. I'm pretty much over all the speculation on Watt already. 

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

 

After this offseason, the Bills will probably have Top 5 paid (at their position) players in Josh Allen, Tre White and Mitch Morse.

It's possible they can restructure Morse, but then I imagine Stephon Diggs will start pushing for a new contract.

Dion Dawkins sits just outside the Top 10 on offensive tackles.  Jordan Poyer is just outside the Top 10 on safeties.

 

My point is that our roster, in terms of salary cap, is starting to get a little bit top-heavy.

Every team can have a handful of big contracts.  But after your QB and maybe 2-3 other positions, those big contracts are eventually going to start costing talent everywhere else.

 

Would you rather have a roster with several big name Pro-Bowlers, hoping they can make up for big weaknesses at a couple other spots?  Or would you rather have a couple Pro-Bowlers, and strong depth across the board?  1 good player + 2 below average players?  Or 3 good players.  In my opinion, the latter is a better recipe for consistent/long-term success. 

 

The Bills were close this year.  Their offseason plan should be improving a few places, without upsetting what worked in 2020.

If JJ Watt costs them a combination of Matt Milano, Darryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, or forces them to cut guys who have contributed... he's not worth it.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, ndirish1978 said:

I just realized that I was more excited about Mario than I am about JJ Watt... must be the age. I'm pretty much over all the speculation on Watt already. 

Injuries have me concerned but I'm the type of person that says worry about that when it happens. I will be excited to sign Watt but he's not someone I'm hoping they sign. I'm hoping to see some legit DL help added. The guy I really want is Delvin Tomlinson. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Injuries have me concerned but I'm the type of person that says worry about that when it happens. I will be excited to sign Watt but he's not someone I'm hoping they sign. I'm hoping to see some legit DL help added. The guy I really want is Delvin Tomlinson. 

Hell yeah me too. Matter of fact sign him, draft a DE, and focus the rest on Oline and weapons. Finish off LB and CB next year. I know D will be a little weak for another year but quite a bit can be masked by being better up front.

[BillnutinHouston]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. Ideally I want to pay him $36m over 3 with the clear understanding that he will get paid $24m over 2 in cash terms but allow me to spread it over 3 for cap terms with the other $12m being fake money. 

 

You have that kind of money?  Impressive.

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

After this offseason, the Bills will probably have Top 5 paid (at their position) players in Josh Allen, Tre White and Mitch Morse.

It's possible they can restructure Morse, but then I imagine Stephon Diggs will start pushing for a new contract.

Dion Dawkins sits just outside the Top 10 on offensive tackles.  Jordan Poyer is just outside the Top 10 on safeties.

 

My point is that our roster, in terms of salary cap, is starting to get a little bit top-heavy.

Every team can have a handful of big contracts.  But after your QB and maybe 2-3 other positions, those big contracts are eventually going to start costing talent everywhere else.

 

Would you rather have a roster with several big name Pro-Bowlers, hoping they can make up for big weaknesses at a couple other spots?  Or would you rather have a couple Pro-Bowlers, and strong depth across the board?  1 good player + 2 below average players?  Or 3 good players.  In my opinion, the latter is a better recipe for consistent/long-term success. 

 

The Bills were close this year.  Their offseason plan should be improving a few places, without upsetting what worked in 2020.

If JJ Watt costs them a combination of Matt Milano, Darryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, or forces them to cut guys who have contributed... he's not worth it.

 

 

Thanks.  This is an excellent post.  It states very well the real challenge that McBeane have created for themselves, which is is that they are building for sustained, long-term excellence.   They aren't building on the theory that you have a window and you have to add some elite players to take advantage of the window.   

 

Having said that, they certainly should be willing to acquire elite players if it makes sense.   What you point out is that JJ may not make sense - he may in fact impair their long-term building plans.   

 

Of course, that's exactly the argument about Milano, too.   The Bills only should be spending big dollars on their true core players, like Allen and White and a few others.  The difference between Milano and Watt is that signing Watt is less likely, from a cap perspective, to impair long-term building than Milano.  Watt will take a two-year deal and be done; Milano will tie up money longer term. 

 

I don't say any of that to prove that signing Watt would be the right thing.   It's a complicated question - how important is a player like Watt to McD's defensive scheme?   How much would his contract get in the way of the long-term plan?  How is his health?   There are questions that have to be weighed all over the place.  We all can have opinions about how to balance those questions; in the end, all that will matter is how McBeane balance them.  

 

Thanks for the interesting comment. 

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

You have that kind of money?  Impressive.

 

I ain't done too bad for myself 😉

[MasterStrategist]

50 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

After this offseason, the Bills will probably have Top 5 paid (at their position) players in Josh Allen, Tre White and Mitch Morse.

It's possible they can restructure Morse, but then I imagine Stephon Diggs will start pushing for a new contract.

Dion Dawkins sits just outside the Top 10 on offensive tackles.  Jordan Poyer is just outside the Top 10 on safeties.

 

My point is that our roster, in terms of salary cap, is starting to get a little bit top-heavy.

Every team can have a handful of big contracts.  But after your QB and maybe 2-3 other positions, those big contracts are eventually going to start costing talent everywhere else.

 

Would you rather have a roster with several big name Pro-Bowlers, hoping they can make up for big weaknesses at a couple other spots?  Or would you rather have a couple Pro-Bowlers, and strong depth across the board?  1 good player + 2 below average players?  Or 3 good players.  In my opinion, the latter is a better recipe for consistent/long-term success. 

 

The Bills were close this year.  Their offseason plan should be improving a few places, without upsetting what worked in 2020.

If JJ Watt costs them a combination of Matt Milano, Darryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, or forces them to cut guys who have contributed... he's not worth it.

 

 

Great points.

 

I agree, but 1 area that I'd comment on is the tradeoff (your final paragraph).

 

I think Beane and group have done wonders, but they have also eaten up a good chunk of cap in very avg players (ie: Murphy, Winters, Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Norman).  Yes, Williams did work out, and Feliciano to a degree, for us and also fits this category..  But I'd rather see them sign a JJ and give up these type of acquisitions, and better develop our draft picks.  

 

For that reason, I'd leave Milano out of the comparison.  So to me, it comes down to maximizing value (roi) at each position group and they've done a poor job on the DL, slightly better at OL.  They've knocked it out of thr park at Safety, and also WR. Of course Qb has been a great return.  But they need to start hitting on the trenches, and I guess they tried but haven't had a "diggs" like impact guy there.

[The Red King]

The Bills' pass rush has been a fatal flaw and I hate to say that we can upgrade any other parts of the team we want, but if we can't put consistant, if not heavy, pressure on elite QBs like Mahomes and Brady (both of which we face next season), they will shred us.  I may be wrong, but I don't see us making it any further then the Championship Game without an upgraded pass rush.

 

As such, I am praying we get Watt.  Yes, he's a risk, but if that risk pays off it could push the Bills over the threshold.  We may have to over pay depending on what he has left in the tank, but if he can help eliminate a glaring weakness, I'm for it.  I'd love to see a more aggressive D this season, instead of the passive "bend but don't break" damage-mitigating D we had last season.

[TheBeaneBandit]

5 minutes ago, The Red King said:

The Bills' pass rush has been a fatal flaw and I hate to say that we can upgrade any other parts of the team we want, but if we can't put consistant, if not heavy, pressure on elite QBs like Mahomes and Brady (both of which we face next season), they will shred us.  I may be wrong, but I don't see us making it any further then the Championship Game without an upgraded pass rush.

 

As such, I am praying we get Watt.  Yes, he's a risk, but if that risk pays off it could push the Bills over the threshold.  We may have to over pay depending on what he has left in the tank, but if he can help eliminate a glaring weakness, I'm for it.  I'd love to see a more aggressive D this season, instead of the passive "bend but don't break" damage-mitigating D we had last season.

I would add him and draft another. 👍 Being dominant up front can mask other deficiencies a bit.

 

[BuffaloRebound]

Watt choosing Bills has chance of bringing other guys along who are also chasing rings.  Kind of like what Brady’s presence does.  There’s a lot of vets who are gonna get cut.  If we can’t get Gronk, then a guy like Kyle Rudolph is intriguing if Vikings cut him.  Does Sherman take less money to chase a ring.  Milano’s replacement.  A vet RB.  I think Watt picking the Bills would have an add-on effect.  

[Billznut]

Agreed. It would show proof of Buffalo as having fully “arrived” as a free agent destination going forward. I think Watt signing here could have added benefits now and in the future for the organization over and above what his play hopefully brings on the field. And I gotta believe this is all heavily playing into Beane’s decision on Watt in addition to obvious scheme matters. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Billznut