Texans releasing JJ Watt

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

(snip)

only 4 players who were in the top 10 in double teams ALSO were in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. They are Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Chase Young and JJ Watt. (....)

Joey Bosa has the largest contract for a DE. 5/$135M with an AAV of $27M.

Myles Garrett has the 2nd largest contract for a DE. 5/$125M with an AAV of $25M.

Chase Young has the 15th largest contract (rookie deal). 4/$34M with an AAV of $8M. 
 

That’s a lot of coin... on average $20M. Now you’re in the right to be concerned about Watt being older, he’s 32 and those guys are 25 or younger. You’re right to be worried about injuries with him as compared to those guys. If that’s your concern, I understand. 
 

The root of it is, Watt at 32 performed similar to them and we’re talking about $8M in savings associated with that type of production due to various factors such as age and injury history. Healthy and you have an absolute steal, hurt and you have a signing that really can’t be much worse than Trent Murphy. 
 

I think it’s really a snap call with where the Bills are right now. They need an elite pass rusher, he still is, and those guys aren’t growing on trees. If that type of guy is available it’s because they have some warts, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. 

 

It's been reported that when negotiations for the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers trade were ongoing, the (then) San Diego Chargers wanted Osi Umenyiora as part of the deal and the Giants said that's a deal-breaker: "we don't trade young pass rushers".   It's true that elite pass rushers, if available, fetch a high price or sign for a high price, or go high in the draft.

 

I have a hunch that McDermott and Frazier have not assigned the same importance, in their scheme, to an elite pass rusher that some of their peers have.  If you look at what positions the team has prioritized in the draft for defense, it's been 1) CB 2) MLB.  Clearly the team recognized that an elite QB is critical and Beane needed to "sell the farm" to position himself in the draft to take one.  But we haven't seen the same efforts for a pass rusher.

 

I think buried in some of this discussion is the fact that there are pass rushers and pass rushers.  There are guys who can win their battles and get to the QB as part of a strong OL.  And there are game-wreckers - guys who can win so fast they make life hell on a QB all by themselves.

 

Jerry Hughes is the former.  His best sack and QB Hit totals (2013, 2014) came as part of an elite DL - Hughes, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus.  He's gonna be 33 next season.  It seems to me that when the Colts expected him to be a game-changing player on his own, it didn't work out too well.

Mario Addison, also going to be 34 next season, is, I think, similar.  His best sack and QB Hit totals came more recently - 2016-2019 - the beginning of that stretch, under McDermott with a similar philosophy of having the DL get pressure as a unit to give the ends a chance to make plays.   Judging by the contract, I believe the Bills felt they could get at least 2 years of strong performance out of him.

JJ Watt, in his heyday of 2012-2015 was, I think, the latter - a "force of nature", a guy who can be so explosive and win so fast he can wreck the game all on his own.  He'll be 32 next season, so actually younger than our two current DEs.  He's a step above what we have.

 

For whatever the talk about "setting a foundation",  I don't believe Frazier and McDermott got what they hoped for from the FA additions of Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  Maybe the 1TDT was the sticking point - maybe they made those additions expecting that Lotulelei would be there and Harrison Phillips would be back to form or even taking a step.  But it just never functioned as intended.  There were "breadcrumbs" dropped by various guys in the secondary about "guys buying in".

 

I'm rambling.  If the question is, "Is it worth it for the Bills to sign Watt?" I guess it depends upon for what?  Last year the Bills signed 33 year old Mario Addison to a three year, $30.45 million, $13.25 million fully guaranteed.  All the guaranteed money was last year and they can move on for $4M dead cap, so it could be looked at as a 1 year, $13.24M contract.  Would 32 year old JJ Watt be worth that?  I would say, absolutely! 

 

Would he be worth a 1 yr, $20M contract?  I would say that depends upon whether or not we can retain or have in place whatever other pieces on the line to maximize his effect.  We would need to cut all 3 of Addison, Butler, and Jefferson plus likely not re-sign Milano and Daryl Williams to make that happen, I'd guess?

 

I will say this - I know you've expressed the view that the "Carolina Connection" isn't the big deal or the hindrance some here see it as.  The 2015 Panthers DL that went to the Superbowl (and proved "not good enough") was essentially Johnson-Lotulelei-Kawan Short-Mario Addison.  We have 2 of those 4 here.  If we add Short, I can't help feeling that McDermott needs someone to sew him a sampler "You Can't Go Home Again" or the like.

 

[Reed83HOF]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

TKO stated today that you need the pass rusher, if QB is 1A the pass rusher is 1B in terms of need

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago.  

 

 

Only quoting this line @Shaw66 because I think it is an interesting comparison for where the Bills are now. Frank Clark is overpaid. Not just a little bit overpaid. A lot overpaid. His cap number was top 3 for defensive ends in 2020 and is #1 for defensive ends in 2021. He had only 6 sacks and 9 hurries in 2020. The Chiefs also overpaid to sign him. They traded a 1st and a 2nd and swapped 3rds. It was a significant overpay. But they said "we need an upgrade at edge rusher, we are in a window, sod the cost let's do it."

 

I don't think the Frank Clark trade when you consider cost, contract and production will ever be considered good value. But hey, the Chiefs needed an upgrade on the edge they got an upgrade on the edge and they won a Superbowl. I'm not sure a 32 year old JJ Watt on a 2 year $24m contract, and playing in a different scheme than the one he has played his whole career is particularly great value (though it is better than Clark!) The point is the Bills need an upgrade on the Dline and it might be worth overpaying the real world value to try and force them over the top. 

 

I still think a better fit is someone who is more of a speedy, bendy, outside 4-3 end, but JJ Watt is available and if he stays healthy he can still impact football games. If he comes to Buffalo then he will be judged as much on whether he is the missing piece as he is on whether he ever lives up to a pure economic value. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

 

I think the Frazier/McDermott defense for years has been built on having a DL of "good not great" players who both "do their 1/11" and play fiercely when they're in (enabled by having a rotation, so they get breathers).

 

I think the AFC championship game and Superbowl have to leave them asking both  "are the guys we currently have, actually good enough to get the job done?" and "is this philosophy and scheme actually the right road?"

[BillsFan2313]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

 

Throw in a lifetime supply of wings for his wife, from a place of her choosing, and no one will beat that deal. 

[Einstein's Dog]

18 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Short and Addison were much better players when they went to the SB..... that being said, I’m sick of the Carolina connection. It’s been just a pile on of overvaluing and overpaying mediocre or washed up players. 
 

I don’t know what to say about a coach who doesn’t put a high value pass rushers.... really hope this isn’t their mentality. Especially within the scheme they play. 

I wouldn't mind the newest Carolina possibility K Short.  It seems like a lot of people here will lose it, and that would just be an added benefit.

 

This FO and coach have placed a high value on the DL.  Wasn't it the most money in the league?  I'm in agreement in hoping they tweak the investment.  They've already started, the early draft picks of Oliver and Epenesa can help eliminate the costly depth of the Butler/Murphy/Jeffersons.  Now move on from them and add a premier top guy (and yes I classify Watt as one of those).

 

On Watt news, I'm getting a little nervous.  Was hoping for news today.  I am of the opinion the longer it drags on the lower the odds for the Bills.

[ndirish1978]

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

On Watt news, I'm getting a little nervous.  Was hoping for news today.  I am of the opinion the longer it drags on the lower the odds for the Bills.

 

Who knows how it is going and whether he and the Bills have talked terms at all yet or just general levels of interest. But I am pretty sure the Bills will have a number and they will hold to that number. They are not going to call him every morning offering to add another half million to seal the deal. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

 

Your drink of choice angers me lol! Jk that was awesome man!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Short and Addison were much better players when they went to the SB..... that being said, I’m sick of the Carolina connection. It’s been just a pile on of overvaluing and overpaying mediocre or washed up players.

 

Valuing/overpaying 🤷‍♂️.  To an extent, one could argue that all FA are overvalued and overpaid.  They're also, at times, difference makers.  There was a point that it was hard to get FA to come to Buffalo, and familiarity with the coach/system is a selling point.  Familiarity of the coach with the players is another selling point.

 

I would hope this past season has taken us into contention for being a good destination.

 

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I don’t know what to say about a coach who doesn’t put a high value pass rushers.... really hope this isn’t their mentality. Especially within the scheme they play. 

 

Please note that "high value" or "doesn't put a high value" on pass rushers wasn't exactly what I said.  My words were "I have a hunch that McDermott and Frazier have not assigned the same importance, in their scheme, to an elite pass rusher that some of their peers have."  To put some more detail behind that: Chicago gave up 2 1st round picks AND made Mack, a former #5 overall pick, the highest-paid defender in the league.  They were basically "name your price _________________________"

 

The Bills did something not dissimilar with Mario Williams and Marcel Dareus.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Who knows how it is going and whether he and the Bills have talked terms at all yet or just general levels of interest. But I am pretty sure the Bills will have a number and they will hold to that number. They are not going to call him every morning offering to add another half million to seal the deal. 

I agree with the Bills having a number.  I just think if the Watt team was going to take the offer they would want to put it out there on a Friday afternoon - get a whole weekend news cycle.  Plus if it goes longer, Green Bay and Pitt come more into play.

[Buffalo03]

12 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

I honestly don't know why we can't cut Quentin Jefferson, Vernon Butler and Mario Addison to make room for both. Cutting those 3 guys will open $26 million of cap space on top of what they will have once they get the cap figures. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

 

Do you think we could structure it like $10M and $14M to reduce cap hit this year? Or even $8M, $16M? Maybe fully guaranteed?

[YoloinOhio]

41 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

Milano is a LB who can he replaced (or gasp - upgraded) at pick 30 or even later for what he does. His role can be played by a rookie imo more easily than most other positions on the D In an ideal world he would be back. But we weren’t beating KC with him either. I don’t think a player in the draft at 30 or beyond (or maybe anywhere) comes in and makes the immediate impact to the D of a JJ watt. For what he can provide in power, technique, drawing doubles, freeing up Hughes, in the short term gains, let alone mentoring Oliver and epenesa in the long term gains. The SB window is now. He’s a greater impact to the D right now than Milano and Milano can be replaced/upgraded in two months. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Do you think we could structure it like $10M and $14M to reduce cap hit this year? Or even $8M, $16M? Maybe fully guaranteed?

 

We absolutely could, if that's his ask, but it would cost us more next year.  Something like $2M salary, $12M signing bonus - $14M in Watt's pocket plus $8M cap hit this year or add in a voidable year for $6M; then $10M salary/roster bonus next year for a $16M or (voidable year) $14M cap hit next year. 

 

Yeah, Watt would want most of that guaranteed.  The cool thing would be if the Bills could add some incentive bonuses around things like games played, sacks etc.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Do you think we could structure it like $10M and $14M to reduce cap hit this year? Or even $8M, $16M? Maybe fully guaranteed?

 

Yes. Ideally I want to pay him $36m over 3 with the clear understanding that he will get paid $24m over 2 in cash terms but allow me to spread it over 3 for cap terms with the other $12m being fake money. 

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I can't argue with you, you're right. 

Still I don't think the evidence is as overwhelming as so many here seem to believe that he is still worth the $10-12 million per year they say he will cost whoever signs him. But of course I could be wrong. If the Bills sign him, I will seriously hope I am wrong. 

We'll see.

It must be nice to be as smart as you are. 

 

I’m better looking than I am smart. And I’m ugly as all get out. 

 

For the record - I was being sarcastic with previous post. 

 

Peace, homie 😎

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We absolutely could, if that's his ask, but it would cost us more next year.  Something like $2M salary, $12M signing bonus - $14M in Watt's pocket plus $8M cap hit this year or add in a voidable year for $6M; then $10M salary/roster bonus next year for a $16M or (voidable year) $14M cap hit next year. 

 

Yeah, Watt would want most of that guaranteed.  The cool thing would be if the Bills could add some incentive bonuses around things like games played, sacks etc.

 

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. Ideally I want to pay him $36m over 3 with the clear understanding that he will get paid $24m over 2 in cash terms but allow me to spread it over 3 for cap terms with the other $12m being fake money. 

 

Thanks Guys.

 

I've been confused, thinking I was the crazy one, seeing so many people saying "With the cap situation this year, I bet we'll see a lot of 1-year deals so players can really hit Free Agency next year". And that made no sense to me.

 

If anything, I think we'll see more long term deals, with 2021 being low paid and all the real money shifted down the line, and likely guaranteed to some extent. Not like the old-school backloaded contracts where you knew the player was never going to see a penny of the last 3 years.

56 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

 

It's not that we CANT sign Milano. It's that we shouldnt sign Milano at such a high price.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Milano is a LB who can he replaced (or gasp - upgraded) at pick 30 or even later for what he does. His role can be played by a rookie imo more easily than most other positions on the D In an ideal world he would be back. But we weren’t beating KC with him either. I don’t think a player in the draft at 30 or beyond (or maybe anywhere) comes in and makes the immediate impact to the D of a JJ watt. For what he can provide in power, technique, drawing doubles, freeing up Hughes, in the short term gains, let alone mentoring Oliver and epenesa in the long term gains. The SB window is now. He’s a greater impact to the D right now than Milano and Milano can be replaced/upgraded in two months. 

 

I don't know that I agree Milano can be replaced/upgraded so easily from the draft. 

 

I think he has made himself into an impact player and you're not going to get his level of savvy from a rookie.

 

The double-edged sword of Milano was revealed this season though.  When he's an integral part of the Bills defense and they depend upon him for a bunch of stuff that "next man up" can't do as well, it's a problem if they can't count on him to stay healthy.

 

The other thing is that he and Edmunds are both players who seem to do what they do in part with "zone eyes", and that made them easy prey for a QB with "lying eyes" like Mahomes to manipulate. 

 

In an ideal world, we would keep Milano AND upgrade our DL/Pass rush substantially - but then there is still that "double edged sword" of depending upon Milano and perhaps not being able to "plug and play" a replacement - and whether the scheme we evolved into with him is "good, but not good enough" to beat a team like KC.

 

Interesting times.

 

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I wonder what the time line is on this thing. Will it spill into the beginning of FA in mid March? Or is he close to signing somewhere now?