Texans releasing JJ Watt

[JGMcD2]

20 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

In two years Watt is not going to be playing at a level that warrants the salary he is going to command now. This is a short term move, and pays off if he stays healthy and performs at the "elite" level you expect from him for a full season. I don't think that's hard to understand. Signing him is making a bet that he will, as you say, put them over the top. If he doesn't do that, it's a waste and distraction, and spends money that could be spent on, say, Milano, or some other younger player.

 

Nobody is (likely) signing Watt for more than two years - not sure how what we’re paying him these next two years has anything to do with the caliber of player he is when his contract would be up? Truthfully in free agency in any sport you’re always paying a player what they’re worth based on past production and not future production. That’s just how it works... 
 

In what world is it a distraction? The same world that Diggs was going to be a distraction?

Edited February 19, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Dr. K]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Well yes of course it's a risk. A lot of signings are risks.  But what do you expect? 

 

Them to basically sit on their hands and not take any risks? How do you expect the team to get better with that strategy? 

 

Of course I don't expect them to sit on their hands. That's a straw man argument. Any personnel decision is going to involve risk. I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt. 

 

We'll see what happens. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Nobody is (likely) signing Watt for more than two years - not sure how what we’re paying him these next two years has anything to do with the caliber of player he is when his contract would be up? 
 

In what world is it a distraction? The same world that Diggs was going to be a distraction?

This comparison to Diggs is another straw man argument. Diggs was 26 years old, and was not signed in the midst of a cap squeeze. You're comparing apples and oranges. 

 

I've said my piece here, and there's no point in arguing it further. We'll just have to disagree, as good fans of the same team often do. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dr. K

[mjt328]

27 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

In two years Watt is not going to be playing at a level that warrants the salary he is going to command now. This is a short term move, and pays off if he stays healthy and performs at the "elite" level you expect from him for a full season. I don't think that's hard to understand. Signing him is making a bet that he will, as you say, put them over the top. If he doesn't do that, it's a waste and distraction, and spends money that could be spent on, say, Milano, or some other younger player.

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

[HeHateMe]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

Even a somewhat diminished Watt is probably our best player in the front 7...  At least he plays hard and would be a leader... which we desperately lack.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Of course I don't expect them to sit on their hands. That's a straw man argument. Any personnel decision is going to involve risk. I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt. 

 

We'll see what happens. 

 

 

"I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt."

 

That's a fair assessment.   That means you're evaluating the Watt opportunity as probably a bad bet.  That is, you think it's a relatively small likelihood that he will give the Bills the kind of play that they need.  

 

I won't argue with that assessment - everyone can make his own judgment.   

 

I think the problem with that conclusion, however, is that it leaves the Bills nowhere.  The Bills have a very good team, and one of the things they need to get better is some explosive defensive line play.  They need one or two higher caliber playmakers on the defensive line.   That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago.  

 

So the question is "where are the Bills going to get that kind of playmaker?"   You might get lucky and find one in the draft, but if you do, that guy isn't likely to be a real playmaker for two or three years.  A guy who is going to be a stud as a rookie is very unlikely to fall far enough in the draft for the Bills to get him.   So the Bills are limited to finding their playmaking dlineman in free agency or a trade.   I don't know who's on the list, but it's a very short list of guys who are playmakers and either free agents or available in trade.    They all will be expensive, and they all will carry some risk.  

 

So, if you don't want the Bills to take a chance on Watt, who do you want them to take a chance on?  (If you've answered that in this thread, I'm sorry, I haven't gone to look for it).   Or, do you want the Bills just to stick with what they have, hope Epenesa and Oliver take big steps up, maybe find a role player or two in the draft or free agency?

[JGMcD2]

16 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

This comparison to Diggs is another straw man argument. Diggs was 26 years old, and was not signed in the midst of a cap squeeze. You're comparing apples and oranges. 

 

I've said my piece here, and there's no point in arguing it further. We'll just have to disagree, as good fans of the same team often do. 

So he’s a distraction based on the amount of money? I really don’t understand? Diggs wasn’t supposed to be a distraction because he was acquired when cap was lush and was younger? 
 

I didn’t realize contracts and age were the determining factors in a player being a distraction? Normally when people claim a player is going to be a distraction it’s because of their behavior... 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JGMcD2

[HeHateMe]

What do people think Watt will get assuming a short team deal?  2 years @ 24-30 Million?  More/Less?

[Einstein's Dog]

11 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

What are you basing the "injuries have really taken their toll" on?  Did you really watch all his games and come up with a different opinion/analysis than the guys who did.  What was your win rate and double team rate?

 

It wasn't that long ago that Bills fans saw the damage Watt can do.  That player we saw in the playoff game would be great to have on the Bills.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

 

Watt isn't elite anymore.

 

But elite level DE play costs about $23M per season now.....not $10M-$12M as some have speculated Watt would be paid.......... and there aren't even any elite 4-3 DE's on the market.

 

If you want "elite" QB's, LT's, DE's and CB and WR you pretty much gotta' draft them(or trade for them) and use your team control leverage to get them inked long term the way the Bills did with Tre White.

[Dr. K]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

"I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt."

 

That's a fair assessment.   That means you're evaluating the Watt opportunity as probably a bad bet.  That is, you think it's a relatively small likelihood that he will give the Bills the kind of play that they need.  

 

I won't argue with that assessment - everyone can make his own judgment.   

 

I think the problem with that conclusion, however, is that it leaves the Bills nowhere.  The Bills have a very good team, and one of the things they need to get better is some explosive defensive line play.  They need one or two higher caliber playmakers on the defensive line.   That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago.  

 

So the question is "where are the Bills going to get that kind of playmaker?"   You might get lucky and find one in the draft, but if you do, that guy isn't likely to be a real playmaker for two or three years.  A guy who is going to be a stud as a rookie is very unlikely to fall far enough in the draft for the Bills to get him.   So the Bills are limited to finding their playmaking dlineman in free agency or a trade.   I don't know who's on the list, but it's a very short list of guys who are playmakers and either free agents or available in trade.    They all will be expensive, and they all will carry some risk.  

 

So, if you don't want the Bills to take a chance on Watt, who do you want them to take a chance on?  (If you've answered that in this thread, I'm sorry, I haven't gone to look for it).   Or, do you want the Bills just to stick with what they have, hope Epenesa and Oliver take big steps up, maybe find a role player or two in the draft or free agency?

These are all reasonable arguments for taking a chance on Watt. I don't know what the reasonable alternatives in free agency or trades are if you need an immediate upgrade. I do hope that Epenesa and Oliver will improve their pass rushing abilities. But I also expect Jerry Hughes, whom I like, to hit the wall any day now. 

 

I generally trust Beane to judge what the cost-benefit breakdown is in bringing in D-linemen, though the bets he made on Addison and the others he brought in last season did not really pay off. I think the return of Lotulelei and the improvement of Harrison at tackle might help the run defense, and maybe free up others to rush the passer.

 

If Beane thinks Watt is worth the money and the consequential inability to sign other free agents, then I'll hope he's right.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dr. K

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think Watt is an immediate upgrade over anything they currently have on the defensive line..... what would you like them to do? 

 

Address the position in the draft because it saves you money? Chances are pretty strong you aren't getting an immediate impact player as good as Watt, even at his age.... and hell, why not sign Watt and draft a pass rusher early? You can do both. 

 

That's what exactly I would do.  

 

Watt would be our best defensive lineman immediately.  He's not the elite Watt anymore but getting his snaps from 90% with Houston to 60% or so with us....we could see his juice again.  

 

Every end we would have would be over 30 except AJ and he's not a quick twitch edge guy.  

I don't think Daryl Johnson is anything that can't be replaced easily.  

Edited February 19, 2021 by Royale with Cheese

[mjt328]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

What are you basing the "injuries have really taken their toll" on?  Did you really watch all his games and come up with a different opinion/analysis than the guys who did.  What was your win rate and double team rate?

 

It wasn't that long ago that Bills fans saw the damage Watt can do.  That player we saw in the playoff game would be great to have on the Bills.

 

I'm basing it on him being 32 at the start of next season, along with him missing 13 games in 2016, 11 games in 2017 and 8 games in 2019.

In the 4 seasons prior to when the injuries starting hitting, Watt had 69 total sacks.

In the last 5 seasons since the injuries started, he's got 26.5 total sacks.

 

I realize that pass rushing is about total pressure, and not just about sacks.  But the ELITE guys usually get to the QB and finish the job.  

We already have a pretty good DE (Jerry Hughes) who causes lots of pressure, but isn't great at actually sacking the quarterback.  

 

Watt would certainly be an upgrade over Mario Addison.  But I don't believe he's among the elite guys anymore, and isn't worth getting into a bidding war over... especially considering the cap issues we have at other places on the team.

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's what exactly I would do.  

 

Watt would be our best defensive lineman immediately.  He's not the elite Watt anymore but getting his snaps from 90% with Houston to 60% or so with us....we could see his juice again.  

 

Every end we would have would be over 30 except AJ and he's not a quick twitch edge guy.  

I don't think Daryl Johnson is anything that can't be replaced easily.  

Well I hit the like button, but immediately realized I shoulda hit the glass of beer like the other guy lol

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Dr. K said:

These are all reasonable arguments for taking a chance on Watt. I don't know what the reasonably alternatives in free agency or trades are if you need an immediate upgrade. I do hope that Epenesa and Oliver will improve their pass rushing abilities. But I also expect Jerry Hughes, whom I like, to hit the wall any day now. 

 

I generally trust Beane to judge what the cost-benefit breakdown is in bringing in D-linemen, though the bets he made on Addison and the others he brought in last season did not really pay off. I think the return of Lotulelei and the improvement of Harrison at tackle might help the run defense, and maybe free up others to rush the passer.

 

If Beane thinks Watt is worth the money and the consequential inability to sign other free agents, then I'll hope he's right.

Got it.  Thanks.   I don't disagree.   I trust Beane to do the cost-benefit breakdown (and the evaluation of the risk) too.  

 

And the piece we're missing is implied in what you say.  The piece we're missing is what McDermott and Frazier and others think the Bills need to make the defensive front seven better.  As you say, Epenesa, Oliver, and Star may be much of the solution.   And I agree about Hughes, too.  

 

Like most fans, I may be overly attracted to the star player.   I watched Frank Clark and Chris Jones disrupt things and don't see someone on the Bills who can do that.   I'm thinking it's critical to have that disruptive guy somewhere on the front seven.  Can they make Milano into something like the 3-4 OLB pass rusher?   Bills obviously aren't going to change scheme to do that, but I think someone has to step as something more than just solid at his position.   Hughes almost was that kind of guy in his younger days, but he certainly isn't now.  Oliver hasn't turned into an Aaron Donald-like player.  I don't think Epenesa is that guy - he hasn't flashed that kind of brilliance.  

 

So, I think the question that you and I can't answer is what does McDermott think he needs, and is he correct?   Beane will get him what McD thinks he needs.  

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Well I hit the like button, but immediately realized I shoulda hit the glass of beer like the other guy lol

@Scottlaw drinks the Hard Lemonade’s because beer is too strong for him.  

[Hebert19]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The Bills were in the AFC Championship and need a couple more elite players to get them over the top......not sure how signing Watt compromises them in “building for the long haul”......whatever that means. 
 

 

This.  Beane is smart.  He would sign him 2 or 3 years but make the cap hit to let him walk at the end of those seasons not a big impact.  

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Watt would certainly be an upgrade over Mario Addison.  But I don't believe he's among the elite guys anymore, and isn't worth getting into a bidding war over... especially considering the cap issues we have at other places on the team.

 

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

[TheFunPolice]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's the huge unknown.  Will Star play, and if he plays, will he be "all in" with training and conditioning this spring and preparation/game day next fall?

Or will he be phoning it in?

 

The major prep I want to see Star doing is to commit in the dining room.

 

I want a 350+ lb DT on this team! 

Edited February 19, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

What do people think Watt will get assuming a short team deal?  2 years @ 24-30 Million?  More/Less?

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

[TheFunPolice]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

 

That's perfect. I like a 2 year deal, in case he is really great.