Texans releasing JJ Watt

[Turbo44]

26 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

Who would you rather have? 
 

Kawaan Short 

or Watt? 
 

Short:

 

had 32.5 sacks (seventh-most in franchise history and most for a Panthers defensive tackle), 280 total tackles, 59 tackles for loss and 88 quarterback hits during his eight seasons in Carolina. From 2015-17, Short was third among all NFL defensive tackles in sacks (24.5), fourth in tackles for loss (35) and fifth in quarterback hits (52). His 11 sacks in 2015 are the most by a defensive tackle in a season in team history.

 

Both are a gamble bc of injury history. 

 Both - short will sign a 1 year prove it deal a la D. Williams

[Dr. K]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

 

Let me follow the train of thought here... 
 

You think people are getting caught up in the name and aren’t thinking analytically. 
 

Then numbers (analytics) are brought to your attention to illustrate that he’s still a very impactful player. 
 

Then you say that the numbers don’t matter anymore and you’re just going off of gut? 
 

Tighten it up. 

I can't argue with you, you're right. 

Still I don't think the evidence is as overwhelming as so many here seem to believe that he is still worth the $10-12 million per year they say he will cost whoever signs him. But of course I could be wrong. If the Bills sign him, I will seriously hope I am wrong. 

We'll see.

1 hour ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Well - it's your lucky day. I am an expert.

 

You're wrong.

 

 

It must be nice to be as smart as you are. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dr. K

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, bobobonators said:

What if Star was not coming back?

 

That's the huge unknown.  Will Star play, and if he plays, will he be "all in" with training and conditioning this spring and preparation/game day next fall?

Or will he be phoning it in?

[JGMcD2]

42 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

I can't argue with you, you're right. 

Still I don't think the evidence is as overwhelming as so many here seem to believe that he is still worth the $10-12 million per year they say he will cost whoever signs him. But of course I could be wrong. If the Bills sign him, I will seriously hope I am wrong. 

I appreciate your willingness to admit you’re wrong, really do. It would be easy to dig in and fight back. Thank you for that... seriously. 
 

I want to unpack you text there though, and think about it just in the context of that post. It says only 4 players who were in the top 10 in double teams ALSO were in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. They are Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Chase Young and JJ Watt. 
 

This is just one comparison obviously and cannot be seen as the sole measure for how much he has been paid, BUT I think it’s very illuminating. To be double teamed that often AND beat your double teams tells me you’re creating issues for the opposing offense. Due to that, I want to illustrate what those 3 other players are being paid. 
 

Joey Bosa has the largest contract for a DE. 5/$135M with an AAV of $27M.

Myles Garrett has the 2nd largest contract for a DE. 5/$125M with an AAV of $25M.

 

Chase Young has the 15th largest contract (rookie deal). 4/$34M with an AAV of $8M. 
 

That’s a lot of coin... on average $20M. Now you’re in the right to be concerned about Watt being older, he’s 32 and those guys are 25 or younger. You’re right to be worried about injuries with him as compared to those guys. If that’s your concern, I understand. 
 

The root of it is, Watt at 32 performed similar to them and we’re talking about $8M in savings associated with that type of production due to various factors such as age and injury history. Healthy and you have an absolute steal, hurt and you have a signing that really can’t be much worse than Trent Murphy. 
 

I think it’s really a snap call with where the Bills are right now. They need an elite pass rusher, he still is, and those guys aren’t growing on trees. If that type of guy is available it’s because they have some warts, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Dr. K]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I appreciate your willingness to admit you’re wrong, really do. It would be easy to dig in and fight back. Thank you for that... seriously. 
 

I want to unpack you text there though, and think about it just in the context of that post. It says only 4 players who were in the top 10 in double teams ALSO were in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. They are Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Chase Young and JJ Watt. 
 

This is just one comparison obviously and cannot be seen as the sole measure for how much he has been paid, BUT I think it’s very illuminating. To be double teamed that often AND beat your double teams tells me you’re creating issues for the opposing offense. Due to that, I want to illustrate what those 3 other players are being paid. 
 

Joey Bosa has the largest contract for a DE. 5/$135M with an AAV of $27M.

Myles Garrett has the 2nd largest contract for a DE. 5/$125M with an AAV of $25M.

 

Chase Young has the 15th largest contract (rookie deal). 4/$34M with an AAV of $8M. 
 

That’s a lot of coin... on average $20M. Now you’re in the right to be concerned about Watt being older, he’s 32 and those guys are 25 or younger. You’re right to be worried about injuries with him as compared to those guys. If that’s your concern, I understand. 
 

The root of it is, Watt at 32 performed similar to them and we’re talking about $8M in savings associated with that type of production due to various factors such as age and injury history. Healthy and you have an absolute steal, hurt and you have a signing that really can’t be much worse than Trent Murphy. 
 

I think it’s really a snap call with where the Bills are right now. They need an elite pass rusher, he still is, and those guys aren’t growing on trees. If that type of guy is available it’s because they have some warts, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. 

You're right, I am worried about age and injury. He's played three seasons' worth of games in the last five seasons--basically he missed two of the last five seasons because of injury. How many 32 year old linemen maintain their excellence after that age. A lot of them fall off a cliff. 

 

And this is a short-term move, the kind of thing a team does when it thinks it just needs one or two moves to put itself over the line to get a championship. I can see how some fans might see the Bills as in that position, but I would rather see them build more for the long haul, get younger rather than older. 

 

If the Bills take the chance on him, I hope he stays well and can still perform. I'll be rooting for them regardless. 

[Augie]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's the huge unknown.  Will Star play, and if he plays, will he be "all in" with training and conditioning this spring and preparation/game day next fall?

Or will he be phoning it in?

 

Two different and important questions here. IF he plays is probably a certainty to the team. HOW he plays is more of an unknown. 

 

That’s why they get the big bucks. Their jobs hinge on countless questions like this. 

[DJB]

Anyone remember how many pages the Mario Williams thread was? 

 

Will this one surpass it?

[Johnny Hammersticks]

2 hours ago, bobobonators said:

What if Star was not coming back?

 

Then you have to upgrade the DT (0-1 Tech) position also.  This defense will require a DT beside Oliver who can consistently command double teams.  Those type of players don’t come easy.  May need to be a priority in the draft.  Maybe Kawaan Short or some other FA is the guy.

 

I’d still sign Watt on a 1-2 year deal with 10-12 million AAV though.

[bobobonators]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's the huge unknown.  Will Star play, and if he plays, will he be "all in" with training and conditioning this spring and preparation/game day next fall?

Or will he be phoning it in?

Its definitely a concern. Its probably wrong for me to think this way but im

not really counting on Star next season. Covid is not going to disappear in 6-8mo and im sure the NFL will give players the ability to opt out again for Covid reasons. Last season showed the position is a need if Star is not available. 

[bobobonators]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

I appreciate your willingness to admit you’re wrong, really do. It would be easy to dig in and fight back. Thank you for that... seriously. 
 

I want to unpack you text there though, and think about it just in the context of that post. It says only 4 players who were in the top 10 in double teams ALSO were in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. They are Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Chase Young and JJ Watt. 
 

This is just one comparison obviously and cannot be seen as the sole measure for how much he has been paid, BUT I think it’s very illuminating. To be double teamed that often AND beat your double teams tells me you’re creating issues for the opposing offense. Due to that, I want to illustrate what those 3 other players are being paid. 
 

Joey Bosa has the largest contract for a DE. 5/$135M with an AAV of $27M.

Myles Garrett has the 2nd largest contract for a DE. 5/$125M with an AAV of $25M.

 

Chase Young has the 15th largest contract (rookie deal). 4/$34M with an AAV of $8M. 
 

That’s a lot of coin... on average $20M. Now you’re in the right to be concerned about Watt being older, he’s 32 and those guys are 25 or younger. You’re right to be worried about injuries with him as compared to those guys. If that’s your concern, I understand. 
 

The root of it is, Watt at 32 performed similar to them and we’re talking about $8M in savings associated with that type of production due to various factors such as age and injury history. Healthy and you have an absolute steal, hurt and you have a signing that really can’t be much worse than Trent Murphy. 
 

I think it’s really a snap call with where the Bills are right now. They need an elite pass rusher, he still is, and those guys aren’t growing on trees. If that type of guy is available it’s because they have some warts, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. 

According to ESPN’s PRWR, Jerry Hughes was the 2nd best DE/OLB in the NFL at shedding his blocker within 2.5 seconds. As we all know, Jerry Hughes is not even a top 15 pass rusher in the NFL anymore (love the guy). And he was tied for FIRST with TJ Watt in the NFL in this category. Honestly, its laughable. You can come up with a metric for anything. Hughes had 4.5 sacks. The wrong Watt had 5 sacks. 

 

At some point lets put the advanced metrics away and get down to the meat and potatoes:
 

Watt has missed 32 games in 5 years. He has had 1 great season in 5 years. 5 NFL years in real years might as well be a decade. 
 

Watt is a name at this point and not much more. He was great, and you want him bc you’re still stuck on what he used to be. To argue otherwise, and bring up pass rush win rate when double teamed and 70 degrees out with winds blowing from the NW, lacks candor. Yes, you want the name. 

[BADOLBILZ]

38 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The Bills were in the AFC Championship and need a couple more elite players to get them over the top......not sure how signing Watt compromises them in “building for the long haul”......whatever that means. 
 

 

 

 

Building for the long haul is having an elite QB and then juggling the roster every year.    Winners don't have the luxury of worrying about getting younger.

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, bobobonators said:

According to ESPN’s PRWR, Jerry Hughes was the 2nd best DE/OLB in the NFL at shedding his blocker within 2.5 seconds. As we all know, Jerry Hughes is not even a top 15 pass rusher in the NFL anymore (love the guy). And he was tied for FIRST with TJ Watt in the NFL in this category. Honestly, its laughable. You can come up with a metric for anything. Hughes had 4.5 sacks. The wrong Watt had 5 sacks. 

 

At some point lets put the advanced metrics away and get down to the meat and potatoes:
 

Watt has missed 32 games in 5 years. He has had 1 great season in 5 years. 5 NFL years in real years might as well be a decade. 
 

Watt is a name at this point and not much more. He was great, and you want him bc you’re still stuck on what he used to be. To argue otherwise, and bring up pass rush win rate when double teamed and 70 degrees out with winds blowing from the NW, lacks candor. Yes, you want the name. 

Boy, oh boy. You didn’t read a lick of what I wrote did you? Stop focusing solely on results. It’s quite possibly the worst thing you can do. 
 

Sacks are a made up metric too. If you’re going to give me grief for talking about numbers... don’t bring more numbers into the conversation. Lacks candor. 
 

Sacks are out of the control of the player at the end of the day. The total is reliant on 10 other guys on the field executing to allow 1 - 2 guys to make that play for a loss on the QB. Beating your man or in Watt’s case more often than not, your men... is not. It’s measuring something a player can control... and if replicated over and over again will likely lead to your desired result... sacks. The horror. Would you prefer your defensive ends not get off blocks? 

 

I talked about Watt’s injuries. He just played a full 16 games. Over the last 3 seasons he played 40/48 games and oddly enough the year he missed time (2019) he came back in time for the playoffs and seriously disrupted the game... I forget who that was against? Excuse me if I don’t want to heavily weigh him coming back too quickly from back surgery in 2016 and then fracturing his tibia in 2017. Those aren’t even in the top 5 when it comes to common/reoccurring injuries in the NFL. The torn pec is concerning but he came back in the same season, blew up Josh Allen and then proceeded to play a full 16 games the next season. 

 

I made it fairly clear his injuries are part of the reason he’s not (or shouldn’t) get more than $12-13M and age is another. If injuries weren’t a concern he’d be making $17-$20M. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JGMcD2

[HOUSE]

7 hours ago, DJB said:

Anyone remember how many pages the Mario Williams thread was? 

 

Will this one surpass it?

 

Oh the humanity....

 

[Brennan Huff]

7 hours ago, DJB said:

Anyone remember how many pages the Mario Williams thread was? 

 

Will this one surpass it?

Was there even internet back then?

[Canadian Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, DJB said:

Anyone remember how many pages the Mario Williams thread was? 

 

Will this one surpass it?

 

 

Wasnt it something crazy like 500 pages?

 

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly but i swear it seemed that long

[HOUSE]

2 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

Wasnt it something crazy like 500 pages?

 

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly but i swear it seemed that long

I believe the Antonio Brown thread was the longest. Its still floating out there somewhere

[White Linen]

8 hours ago, bobobonators said:

Its definitely a concern. Its probably wrong for me to think this way but im

not really counting on Star next season. Covid is not going to disappear in 6-8mo and im sure the NFL will give players the ability to opt out again for Covid reasons. Last season showed the position is a need if Star is not available. 

 

It's a position of need when Star is available. 

[Dr. K]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The Bills were in the AFC Championship and need a couple more elite players to get them over the top......not sure how signing Watt compromises them in “building for the long haul”......whatever that means. 
 

 

In two years Watt is not going to be playing at a level that warrants the salary he is going to command now. This is a short term move, and pays off if he stays healthy and performs at the "elite" level you expect from him for a full season. I don't think that's hard to understand. Signing him is making a bet that he will, as you say, put them over the top. If he doesn't do that, it's a waste and distraction, and spends money that could be spent on, say, Milano, or some other younger player.

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dr. K

[Rc2catch]

8 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

In two years Watt is not going to be playing at a level that warrants the salary he is going to command now. This is a short term move, and pays off if he stays healthy and performs at the "elite" level you expect from him for a full season. I don't think that's hard to understand. Signing him is making a bet that he will, as you say, put them over the top. If he doesn't do that, it's a waste and distraction, and spends money that could be spent on, say, Milano, or some other younger player.

 

When you are about to or have your quarterback signed to a bigtime deal EVERY move is basically a short term move. The goal is always to lock up your young core talent. Milano is not part of the core. Signing Watt or anyone is always a risk of injury. But no risk no reward. Darryl williams was a high risk signing despite a lower cap number because he had years of injuries and recent bad play. 
You don’t get many players with as high a ceiling in free agency as watt and that’s why basically every team with playoff aspirations will offer him a contract. Signing Watt even if he’s not 100% who he was is an improvement for every player on our defense and raises the production of probably every player in the front 7. 

[HOUSE]

JJ Watt Will check out the Canadian League today just in-case the Rough Riders are interested..