Texans releasing JJ Watt

[JGMcD2]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The problem with this - and I say it as someone who thinks no reasonable person could consider letting Thomas leave after 2018 a mistake - is that Thomas despite much inferior QB play caught 65% of his targets. With top 5 QB play Knox caught 54%. Even give Knox the same targets I am not sure he delivers the same production.

It would look similar on paper. I will do some quick math.

 

You give Knox 110 targets. His catch rate is 54.5%.

 

110 * 0.545 = 59.95 

 

Call that 60 receptions. His Y/R is 12.

 

60 * 12 = 720

 

He had 3 TD on 24 receptions.

 

3/24 = .125 TD/R

 

.125 * 60 = 7.5 

 

Call that 7 TD

 

Knox 60/720/7

 

Thomas 72/670/6

 

[KOKBILLS]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Why wouldn’t you want this...

 

 

The Bills have plenty of opportunity to shave salary along the D-Line, and if it means opening up enough to bring Watt in for a year or two I'm 100% on board.

 

Let face it, Watt is picture-perfect made for this organization. He's going to be a leader and a process guy from day 1...He'll bring a skill set to the D-Line that the Bills desperately need right now. He's going to make everyone around him better. He's still got that knack for knifing into the backfield with quicks, and I'm not sure there has ever been a better D-Lineman in NFL history and knocking down passes. The Bills REALLY struggled at times on 3rd Down Defense in 2020...If you got JJ and just played him on 3rd Downs there would be a big improvement.

 

It's a no-brainer IMHO...

 

 

 

 

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

It would look similar on paper. I will do some quick math.

 

You give Knox 110 targets. His catch rate is 54.5%.

 

110 * 0.545 = 59.95 

 

Call that 60 receptions. His Y/R is 12.

 

60 * 12 = 720

 

He had 3 TD on 24 receptions.

 

3/24 = .125 TD/R

 

.125 * 60 = 7.5 

 

Call that 7 TD

 

Knox 60/720/7

 

Thomas 72/670/6

 

Isn't this kind of just pretending Knox was open the same amount as him?

[Figster]

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2021/02/nfl-free-agency-rumors-jj-watt-wants-these-4-things-from-next-team-how-do-bills-stack-up.html

 

Not sure If this has been posted yet.

Edited February 14, 2021 by Figster

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So top # of plays: 5 year average 1110.  10 year average 1124.

I think within the limits of a 60 minute game, you probably have a point that there's probably going to be an upper bound somewhere, and maybe it's ~70 offensive plays per game.

 

To look at it from a different angle, Allen was #6 in passing attempts this season, 54 attempts behind the leader, Matt Ryan.  #2 was Tom Brady and #3 was Ben Roethlisberger - all "elder statesmen" QB in this league.  

 

Not that I want the Bills to go even more pass-centric but I think it's a fair point the Bills, practically speaking, have "some meat on the bone" where they could sustain drives and find passes to someone besides Diggs and Beasley.

There is probably room for some extra plays based on this here. I threw it together real quick... just a boxplot of Total Plays each season. Going over 1100 plays is pretty rare and generally an outlier. 

 

Quick summary stats for the total dataset from 2011-2020

 

 Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
    878     994    1018    1023    1052    1191 

 

2020 Bills were above both slightly above the median and the mean with 1034 plays. There aren't significantly more plays on the table, at least not typically, you would have to have a season that would be an outlier to have significantly more plays than we did this year.

 

Another real good season with an increase in plays to get to that Q3 and you're at around 1052 plays... so we run 18 more... that's not enough to spread around... even if we're split 50/50 pass and run to support a guy like Logan Thomas who needed high volume to put up the 72/670/6 line he did.

 

I'll concede we're not at the upper bound, but there is not a lot of wiggle room.

[JGMcD2]

22 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Isn't this kind of just pretending Knox was open the same amount as him?

No. It's assuming that Knox performs similarly with increased targets... a sample size of 16 games makes you fairly confident that's how the player will perform. Obviously it's not perfect and there are other factors. @Hapless Bills Fan keeps beating the horse that Knox was open a lot and just wasn't targeted.. likely because Josh's first read in his progression more often than not is Diggs, followed by Beasley, followed by Brown, followed by Davis before he even gets to Knox.

 

In Washington it was McLaurin followed by Thomas or McKissic as a check down option. 

 

Situations are not all created equal and that's what needs to be recognized. There are a limited amount of plays to go around (the average team over the last 10 years runs 1023 plays per season on offense) and target share isn't created equal. Knox as the 5th option in Buffalo and Thomas as the 2nd option in Washington is drastically different. Looking at their rate stats is a decent albeit not perfect way to compare them had situations flipped. If you have a better way I am all ears.

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Warcodered]

 

[Magox]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

Beane did say don't expect a "splash" in trades/FA this year

 

 

Setting expectations.  

[Turbo44]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

I get that Watt would be a splash as far as media attention goes, but for what the contract would likely look like, I don’t know that Beane would consider that a splash.

 

 

Lol at people pretending Watt is a negative locker room influence. 

After the complete failure of the “splash” signing/trade of Diggs last year, I’m sure Beane’s going to avoid making that mistake again. Ohh....wait....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Love it!

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

It would look similar on paper. I will do some quick math.

 

You give Knox 110 targets. His catch rate is 54.5%.

 

110 * 0.545 = 59.95 

 

Call that 60 receptions. His Y/R is 12.

 

60 * 12 = 720

 

He had 3 TD on 24 receptions.

 

3/24 = .125 TD/R

 

.125 * 60 = 7.5 

 

Call that 7 TD

 

Knox 60/720/7

 

Thomas 72/670/6

 

 

If you use him more no guarantee that his ypc sustains at 12. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

No. It's assuming that Knox performs similarly with increased targets... a sample size of 16 games makes you fairly confident that's how the player will perform. Obviously it's not perfect and there are other factors. @Hapless Bills Fan keeps beating the horse that Knox was open a lot and just wasn't targeted.. likely because Josh's first read in his progression more often than not is Diggs, followed by Beasley, followed by Brown, followed by Davis before he even gets to Knox.

 

Not a dead horse, I hope.  "Drum" would be more my intention.  Singletary too.

 

Actually I think it's because Josh Allen's mental priority list for passing goes something like this:

1) Throw to Diggs anywhere, anytime

2) Throw to anyone else downfield, even if contested catch or requires serious "Toe Drag Swag"

3) place left testicle in pneumatic nutcracker and hit the flashing green "start" button

4) Take The Checkdown!

 

I have hopes for the modification of this priority list as I witnessed in some games this season:

1) Throw to Diggs anywhere, anytime

2) Throw to anyone else downfield, even if contested catch or requires serious "Toe Drag Swag"

3) TF is Bease? Hit him!

4) place left testicle in pneumatic nutcracker and hit the flashing green "start" button

5) Take The Checkdown!

 

There are times when the protections are a jailbreak or the screen pass broke down, and the correct priority list is

1) HOT READ

2) Throw it away

 

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If you use him more no guarantee that his ypc sustains at 12. 

I didn't say it was guaranteed, but a full season worth of opportunities tells me a decent amount about Knox.

 

It will take some time, but I can look into how increase in targets leads to decrease in efficiency overall. My hypothesis is that is doesn't move very much.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Why wouldn’t you want this...

 

 

He has an uncanny ability to get his arms up in passing windows and deflect the ball. It's something no one talks about but it's a big part of what he brings to the table. A DE getting a pick six is practically unheard of but he does it once a year or so.

 

Overpay him a little, who cares. We need a playmaker on defense.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I didn't say it was guaranteed, but a full season worth of opportunities tells me a decent amount about Knox.

 

It will take some time, but I can look into how increase in targets leads to decrease in efficiency overall. My hypothesis is that is doesn't move very much.

 

I think another relevant point is whether any tight end is going to hog targets in this offense? 

 

[BillsCuse]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

He’d be the 15th best player on the Bills and tacitly demand being the top name on the marquee.  Our locker room is solid but that kind of crap will erode anything.

What he has left in the tank is up for debate, but to say he will screw up our locker room is ridiculous.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think another relevant point is whether any tight end is going to hog targets in this offense? 

 

They won’t.

 

Even if we acquired Ertz. They will be a 3/4 option at best.

 

Diggs is the engine. Beasley is the caboose. More weapons are nice but no other player is putting up more than 600 yards if those two are healthy all year.

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said:

So you’re pinning that current situation on Watt?? Yikes, that’s a big time reach

It certainly can’t all be pinned on him but he also didn’t exactly fix it.  That’s a big ask, I get it, but the ask isn’t as big as his ego.  I think he was fine sharing the spotlight with Watson because he is the QB, but Hopkins was a star in the rise and boom, gone.  
 

That was BOB I get it but Watt has been the Sagittarius A* of the Texans galaxy, and everyone knows it.  Maybe BOB knew that they can’t have three sheriffs in town.  No way Watt goes somewhere else and doesn’t get major press before even meeting the guys on his team.  Our team and culture has been built slowly with a strong foundation.  He is the center of the universe IHHO.  I don’t see how that works with him coming in and being the center of everything.

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They won’t.

 

Even if we acquired Ertz. They will be a 3/4 option at best.

 

Diggs is the engine. Beasley is the caboose. More weapons are nice but no other player is putting up more than 600 yards if those two are healthy all year.

Ertz the 4th option 😂😂

[John from Riverside]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think another relevant point is whether any tight end is going to hog targets in this offense? 

 

It does seem to me that Alan looks to go to Dawson Knox quite a bit so I think the answer to that is yes