Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF): Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate" Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd) The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions. But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 When the metrics don’t seem to match the results, it makes it hard to believe it actually means anything 9 1 2
Solomon Grundy Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF): Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate" Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd) The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions. But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs) Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES
LABILLBACKER Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: When the metrics don’t seem to match the results, it makes it hard to believe it actually means anything What does any of this convoluted pff %/win rate even mean? I vote for grain of salt. 1 3 2
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: What does any of this convoluted pff %/win rate even mean? I vote for grain of salt. 🧂 🧂 🧂 🧂 1
Success Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 I feel like this is one where "eye test" matters a bit. Also, it's hard to put context around some of the stats. I don't know how much stock we can put on the running stats when we hardly run - or the passing stats when all we really do is pass. Interesting #'s, though. I'd be surprised (as I'm sure many would) if the focus of the offseason isn't the trenches. I doubt we see any big moves or high draft picks on skill positions, or the secondary on D. 1 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF): Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate" Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd) The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions. But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs) Stats. one needs more than a graphic to see what they actually mean. just saying
TPS Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF): Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate" Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd) The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions. But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs) I remember reading about the pass blocking/D Rush somewhere, and I believe it was based on a specific time (e.g. 2 seconds?) engaged with the primary blocker.
DCOrange Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: What does any of this convoluted pff %/win rate even mean? I vote for grain of salt. These numbers are actually from ESPN. They break it down here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings. This link also gives you the top 10 list for individual players at each of these metrics as well as the team rankings. Quote Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. In run stop win rate, a defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he's in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backwards; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within three yards of the line of scrimmage. If a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss, and vice versa. More details at the following two links if you want more than just a summary of what the metrics mean: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29813062/introducing-new-nfl-run-blocking-run-stopping-stats-how-run-block-win-rate-run-stop-win-rate-work Edited February 11, 2021 by DCOrange 2 1 1
TheFunPolice Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES Yes! Slaton 1
thenorthremembers Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES The Bills dont have a problem with the BIG portion, at least on the O-Line. Its the nasty part they lack.
colin Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 given how ineffective we were at rushing the passer when it mattered and how we didn't have a ton of sacks, i think we can consider this pass rush win rate as goofy. also, if 4 of 5 linemen hold their blocks all day, but one guy get's beat immediately off the snap, inside, it's a blow up play and possibly a fumble, but the stats would say 80% win rate. what these stats tell me more than anything is that on OL, our tackles are solid, and our interior line is weak, and we knew that watching the team. on the DL side, our guys have enough skill and moves to cause some trouble for OLs, but clearly not enough to impact the game without blitzing. i think our depth of JAGs pad our stats, our like 6th through 8th lineman all have some pass rush ability, but them beating a block after 2 seconds of hand fighting and not making a play isn't making a difference. which is why you pay such a massive premium for a real pass rusher vs a guy who is pretty good.
Nextmanup Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 Data like this is highly subjective. They suggest we have a team pass blocking win rate of 64%. If 9 other people computed that for the season, you would get 9 other percentages. My "win" may not be your "win". And a lot of these are shade of gray stuff in the middle.
HereComesTheReignAgain Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 “Stats are for losers” - Josh Allen 2
GunnerBill Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 2nd in the NFL in pass rush win does feel the one of those stats that doesn't meet the eye test. Though I will say that my eyes tell me both Ed and Jerry win a lot of rushes that don't result in production. Conversely Mario Addison wins rarely but when he does he generally makes a play. I think finishing his rushes consistently is a real area for development for Oliver. I feel like there were sacks there for him this year that he failed to seal the deal on. 1 1
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: When the metrics don’t seem to match the results, it makes it hard to believe it actually means anything I don't understand why folks are saying this. The stats seem to reflect the results-- a team that pass blocked well, run blocked poorly, and had a guy on defense (Hughes) that got consistent pressure. Re Hughes, you would hope the high pressure rate translates into more sacks--I guess that is the only surprising aspect of the stats, to me. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 11, 2021 Author Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: These numbers are actually from ESPN. They break it down here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings. This link also gives you the top 10 list for individual players at each of these metrics as well as the team rankings. More details at the following two links if you want more than just a summary of what the metrics mean: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29813062/introducing-new-nfl-run-blocking-run-stopping-stats-how-run-block-win-rate-run-stop-win-rate-work This is fantastic, @DCOrange. Thanks for giving a source for context 1 1
DCOrange Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: I don't understand why folks are saying this. The stats seem to reflect the results-- a team that pass blocked well, run blocked poorly, and had a guy on defense (Hughes) that got consistent pressure. Re Hughes, you would hope the high pressure rate translates into more sacks--I guess that is the only surprising aspect of the stats, to me. Re: Hughes and the pass rush, it does make me wonder if it might be helpful to know the percentage of plays where 2 or more defenders beat their blocker. Based on Hughes' win rate and our lack of actual pressures this year, it makes me wonder if it basically just boiled down to Hughes beating his man, the QB being able to climb the pocket or side-step Hughes and then the QB is totally fine because everyone else is successfully blocked. Also, if I remember right, teams tended to get the ball out quickly against us before our line really even had a chance to get home. 2
BuffaloRebound Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 If Hughes could grab and hold on, he’d be a double digit sack guy every year. 1
LeGOATski Posted February 11, 2021 Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said: Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES Build a bully? 1
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