Chiefs vs Bills rebuild comparison

[Inigo Montoya]

There has been a lot of talk here over the last month comparing the Bills to the Chiefs for all the obvious reasons.  A lot of posters were very hard on Beane and McDermott for the loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.  I was going to post this then but I thought emotions were still too raw for a lot of people.   Losing to the Chiefs was rough, but taken from a distance and with some context, it's clear Beane and McDermott are two years ahead of where Andy Reid and the Chiefs were in their rebuild.  I think the facts show that Mc/B have done an amazing job.  I'd love to have won the Super Bowl this year, that goes without saying, but this was still an incredibly positive season. 

 

Year 1

Reid   Record  11-5    Lost in Wildcard round 

Mc/B  Record  9-7     Lost in Wildcard round 

 

Year 2

Reid    Record   9-7    Missed Playoffs.  

Mc/B  Record   6-10   Missed Playoffs  (Drafted franchise QB Allen)

 

Year 3

Reid    Record   11-5    Lost in Divisional round

Mc/B   Record  10-6    Lost in Wildcard round

 

Year 4

Reid    Record  12-4     Won AFCW   Lost in Divisional round

Mc/B   Record  13-3     Won AFCE    Lost in AFC Conference game

 

Year 5

Reid    Record  10-6    Won AFCW  Lost in Wildcard round  (Drafted franchise QB Mahomes)

 

Year 6

Reid   Record   12-4    Won AFCW   Lost in AFC Conference game

 

Year 7

Reid   Record   12-4   Won AFCW     Won Super Bowl

 

Year 8

Reid   Record   14-2   Won AFCW     Lost Super Bowl

 

Some points I took away;

 

* It's remarkable how much the two teams first 4 seasons mirror each other.

 

* When Mc/B took over the Bills, it had been 17 seasons without playoffs.  When Reid took over the Chiefs it had just been one season. 

 

* Mc/B have already made it to the AFC Championship game in year 4, something that Reid didn't do until year 6 of his rebuild.

 

* Mc/B found their franchise QB in year 2, Reid didn't find his until year 5.  Alex Smith was a solid QB but not an elite QB. 

 

* It took Reid 7 drafts / seasons to assemble a Super Bowl winning roster.

 

* Mc/B didn't have a Super Bowl winning roster this season. By the "Chief Standard" Mc/B have three more seasons to get there to be on pace with Reid.

 

*  Mc/B have done an amazing job building this franchise in just 4 seasons from dumpster fire / 17 year Drought to the second best team in the AFC.

 

* The people who threw Mc/B under the bus after the Chiefs' loss need to step back and take a look at where this franchise is sitting right now with a top 4 NFL QB who is only 24 years old, a sweep of the division and an AFCE championship, playoffs in 3 out of 4 seasons, and a winning culture / roster that has the building blocks in place for sustained success.  

 

* Lastly, rooting for this Bills' team and enjoying this amazing season was one of the few bright spots in a terrible year for most of us, and Mc/B deserve some thanks for that.  

[Man with No Name]

we got our qb a lot quicker than them. we are not working on the same timeline. 

[Inigo Montoya]

16 minutes ago, Man with No Name said:

we got our qb a lot quicker than them. we are not working on the same timeline. 

 

I agree.   We are ahead of the Chiefs' timeline.  That is a credit to Beane and McDermott.  Mahomes stepped onto the field as a starter with a roster that had been in the playoffs 4 out of the previous 5 years.  JA17 was stepping onto the field with a franchise that had made the playoffs once in the previous 18 years and a roster with the highest dead cap hit in the NFL.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[MJS]

I like the analysis. Obviously, it isn't an apples to apples comparison. The Chiefs had a capable QB that they continued to build around and try to win with. The Bills had Tyrod Taylor who was one of the worst starting QB's in the NFL.

 

The Chiefs could look for a new QB at a leisurely pace while building the rest of their team. The Bills needed to find a QB as quickly as possible.

 

Mahomes stepped in with a very good squad around him that had been built up over the past few years under Reid. Allen stepped in to a terrible squad devoid of talent on offense, albeit with a good, overachieving defense.

 

But it is interesting to see that Reid has been working towards this for a long time. Let's hope that McDermott and Beane can produce a Superbowl winning squad in the next couple of years.

Edited February 8, 2021 by MJS

[machine gun kelly]

A. Smith has for his entire career been underappreciated.  He made the Chiefs a competitive team allowing them to compete, and Reid wisely pounced on Mahomes when he saw the opportunity.

 

Inigo, thanks for the optimism, and you’re right.

[JGMcD2]

People are likely going to argue that we’re in a worse position than KC was. They’re going to say KC had a Super Bowl caliber roster that was short a QB and then were able to keep it together for a few years with a young QB making a rookie salary when they hit their peak. Whereas Buffalo is going to have to give Josh a big contract before that peak comes in Buffalo.

 

That’s what they’re going to say. I don’t agree, but that’s going to be the argument. 
 

Also, something about Beane being a crappy drafter because he doesn’t make enough high risk picks, but they crucify him when he makes high risk picks and they don’t immediately become as good as they read they would be on Bleacher Report. Also, probably something about wasting money. They’ll probably say that too. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Malazan]

What were the weights in Reid vs McDermott in those years?

[Maybe Someday]

Reid traded for Alex Smith after he was hired and they resigned him to be their franchise QB. So I’d say we’re ahead of their pace simply because we found our elite QB talent sooner into the process than they did. 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Man with No Name said:

we got our qb a lot quicker than them. we are not working on the same timeline. 

 

 

Reid and Marrone were hired at the same time.  

 

That's the timeline that matters........when Reid arrived in KC.  

 

The Bills and Chiefs were pretty comparable rosters during the Marrone/Rex regimes........it seemed like every year there was a key swing game between them and Reid would always come out on top.

 

There was a home game where Manny Lawson gave up contain for two long runs to Jamal Charles in a game the Bills should have won and another home game they should have won where Jeff Tuel threw that pick six when he had the Bills near the goal line..........then of course the game under Rex where Watkins had like 200 yards receiving in the first half and then the Bills managed to blow that game too!    

 

Three defeats snatched from the jaws of victory that really hurt the Bills playoff chances and enhanced those of the Chiefs.........which greatly contributed to McDermott even being here.

 

By that time, if you were paying attention,  the Chiefs should have been getting on your nerves.

 

So the new guy McDermott comes in and what does he do?   Trades Mahomes to KC when the organization desperately needs a QB.

 

That season the Bills finally got an important win in KC........but KC still made the playoffs.

 

They've been up the Bills azz since Reid got to KC.

 

People might not like THAT timeline but this "we're only in year 4" bullsh*t does not tell the story of these two franchises at all and it's not like the Bills have a roster that's 4 years younger(it's older actually) or that they are separated by like $100M in cap space(only about $20M).    

 

They are peers who are in very similar stages in their development...........the Bills just have had less success.

 

[Thurman#1]

Saying that you want to compare the Chiefs and the Bills rebuild is like saying you want to compare these two fruits:  apples and medium-rare steak.

 

But steak isn't a fruit, you say? Precisely.

 

And the Chiefs didn't rebuild either.

 

You're comparing the Chiefs reload to the Bills rebuild. You can do that. But thinking you're comparing two rebuilds is completely missing the point.

 

The Chiefs could have rebuilt. Instead they brought in Alex Smith as an FA and became a competitive team immediately, winning 11 games the first year and losing the Wild Card game 45 - 44. Whereas with Tyrod we looked absolutely awful in that Wild Card game, scoring three points total.

 

And in Reid's second year there, they went 9-7, while the Bills went 6-10 in McD's second year. That's not close. Especially when the Chiefs 9 - 7 included beating the Patriots in a year when they went 12 - 4 and won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs also beat the 12 - 4 Seahawks that year

 

And that's what tends to happen. Rebuilds suck much more in the first year or two. A reload where you bring in a QB like Alex Smith has a possibility of being relatively pain-free, which is what happened with the Chiefs.

 

 

 

 

And yeah, there's been a lot of criticism for the Chiefs game, but that's exactly because people now are considering our current FO as an extremely capable one. As well they should, Beane and McDermott have been terrific. This is understood extremely widely. When you are criticizing a coach for losing the AFC championship, you're considering him as a successful guy. You're accepting much higher expectations.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Reid and Marrone were hired at the same time.  

 

That's the timeline that matters........when Reid arrived in KC.  

 

The Bills and Chiefs were pretty comparable rosters during the Marrone/Rex regimes........it seemed like every year there was a key swing game between them and Reid would always come out on top.

 

There was a home game where Manny Lawson gave up contain for two long runs to Jamal Charles in a game the Bills should have won and another home game they should have won where Jeff Tuel threw that pick six when he had the Bills near the goal line..........then of course the game under Rex where Watkins had like 200 yards receiving in the first half and then the Bills managed to blow that game too!    

 

Three defeats snatched from the jaws of victory that really hurt the Bills playoff chances and enhanced those of the Chiefs.........which greatly contributed to McDermott even being here.

 

By that time, if you were paying attention,  the Chiefs should have been getting on your nerves.

 

So the new guy McDermott comes in and what does he do?   Trades Mahomes to KC when the organization desperately needs a QB.

 

That season the Bills finally got an important win in KC........but KC still made the playoffs.

 

They've been up the Bills azz since Reid got to KC.

 

People might not like THAT timeline but this "we're only in year 4" bullsh*t does not tell the story of these two franchises at all and it's not like the Bills have a roster that's 4 years younger(it's older actually) or that they are separated by like $100M in cap space(only about $20M).    

 

They are peers who are in very similar stages in their development...........the Bills just have had less success.

 

 

 

 

Sorry, man, that's just a dumb idea.

 

Sure, if you want to judge Marrone and Whaley negatively ... hey, that's totally fair. You'll get a bit of an argument, but only from a relatively few folks.

 

But you have to stretch yourself like you're being racked, drawn and quartered to pretend that McDermott and Beane can be judged in any way by what the Bills did in 2013 to 2017. They can not, by any even slightly logical standard.

 

Comparing the first four years of this regime to the first four years of the Chiefs, makes total sense, as long as you acknowledge that McDermott and Beane rebuilt, while Reid reloaded.

 

And yes, McDermott traded away the pick that became Mahomes. He's made it clear several times since that he simply didn't have time to do what was necessary here as a new coach with a GM he didn't trust to also do the work necessary to vet those QBs. Hard to imagine why McDermott didn't trust Whaley to pick his QB when Whaley had gone all out saying he'd been in on the EJ choice ... why wouldn't you let the guy who apparently chose EJ, let that Doug Whaley choose the QB who would define your legacy with the team?

 

And a team with Josh Allen on it doesn't have to worry much about any earlier QB decisions.

 

Yeah, Whaley - Marrone sucked.

 

But the new regime is only four years old and appears to have pulled off an extremely successful rebuild and be heading in the right direction even faster than Reid did. After Reid's first four years he hadn't reached the Conference championship.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Jobot]

Good and interesting comparison. But don't forget, comparing our trajectory to the Chiefs sounds 'desirable' today (maybe a little less bc they got pummeled in the SB)... But several years from now, if the Chiefs start to decline, the narrative transitions to 'where did the Chiefs go wrong' compared to 'what the Bills did right'. (hopefully)

 

Basically nothing in the NFL is guaranteed no matter how good you just looked in one AFC championship game.. case in point what happened two days ago.

[JGMcD2]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Reid and Marrone were hired at the same time.  

 

That's the timeline that matters........when Reid arrived in KC.  

 

The Bills and Chiefs were pretty comparable rosters during the Marrone/Rex regimes........it seemed like every year there was a key swing game between them and Reid would always come out on top.

The OP is clearly talking about the path the Chiefs took when Reid arrived compared to the path the Bills took when Beane and McDermott arrived and you blatantly ignored that to spew your dogma. Nobody is telling the story of the two franchises, everyone knows the Bills were wholly incompetent pre-McDermott, the 17 year playoff drought is pretty hard evidence. 

@Thurman#1 is spot on. If you’re really trying to critique McDermott and Beane based on what the Bills did from 2013 up until 2017, then you’re just doing your thing and trying to stir the pot. 
 

I know you’re going to say it matters because the Beane ripped apart a team “equally as talented” as KC at the time. Do me a favor and go back and look at those rosters pre-2017 and tell me how many guys that you wish we still had that we could have reasonably kept that would be contributing today? 

[BuffaloRebound]

More interesting to me is how Tampa Bay almost silently put together a hell of a roster the past 6-7 years and wouldn’t even had a playoff appearance to show for it without Brady.  

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

More interesting to me is how Tampa Bay almost silently put together a hell of a roster the past 6-7 years and wouldn’t even had a playoff appearance to show for it without Brady.  

Well, they did replace this guy who was throwing 30 picks a year

[Heavy Kevi]

16 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There has been a lot of talk here over the last month comparing the Bills to the Chiefs for all the obvious reasons.  A lot of posters were very hard on Beane and McDermott for the loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.  I was going to post this then but I thought emotions were still too raw for a lot of people.   Losing to the Chiefs was rough, but taken from a distance and with some context, it's clear Beane and McDermott are two years ahead of where Andy Reid and the Chiefs were in their rebuild.  I think the facts show that Mc/B have done an amazing job.  I'd love to have won the Super Bowl this year, that goes without saying, but this was still an incredibly positive season. 

 

Year 1

Reid   Record  11-5    Lost in Wildcard round 

Mc/B  Record  9-7     Lost in Wildcard round 

 

Year 2

Reid    Record   9-7    Missed Playoffs.  

Mc/B  Record   6-10   Missed Playoffs  (Drafted franchise QB Allen)

 

Year 3

Reid    Record   11-5    Lost in Divisional round

Mc/B   Record  10-6    Lost in Wildcard round

 

Year 4

Reid    Record  12-4     Won AFCW   Lost in Divisional round

Mc/B   Record  13-3     Won AFCE    Lost in AFC Conference game

 

Year 5

Reid    Record  10-6    Won AFCW  Lost in Wildcard round  (Drafted franchise QB Mahomes)

 

Year 6

Reid   Record   12-4    Won AFCW   Lost in AFC Conference game

 

Year 7

Reid   Record   12-4   Won AFCW     Won Super Bowl

 

Year 8

Reid   Record   14-2   Won AFCW     Lost Super Bowl

 

Some points I took away;

 

* It's remarkable how much the two teams first 4 seasons mirror each other.

 

* When Mc/B took over the Bills, it had been 17 seasons without playoffs.  When Reid took over the Chiefs it had just been one season. 

 

* Mc/B have already made it to the AFC Championship game in year 4, something that Reid didn't do until year 6 of his rebuild.

 

* Mc/B found their franchise QB in year 2, Reid didn't find his until year 5.  Alex Smith was a solid QB but not an elite QB. 

 

* It took Reid 7 drafts / seasons to assemble a Super Bowl winning roster.

 

* Mc/B didn't have a Super Bowl winning roster this season. By the "Chief Standard" Mc/B have three more seasons to get there to be on pace with Reid.

 

*  Mc/B have done an amazing job building this franchise in just 4 seasons from dumpster fire / 17 year Drought to the second best team in the AFC.

 

* The people who threw Mc/B under the bus after the Chiefs' loss need to step back and take a look at where this franchise is sitting right now with a top 4 NFL QB who is only 24 years old, a sweep of the division and an AFCE championship, playoffs in 3 out of 4 seasons, and a winning culture / roster that has the building blocks in place for sustained success.  

 

* Lastly, rooting for this Bills' team and enjoying this amazing season was one of the few bright spots in a terrible year for most of us, and Mc/B deserve some thanks for that.  

 

This is a great post and comparison between the two regimes.

 

Only thing is I reject your comment about throwing McD, etc "under the bus" after chiefs loss. Beane and McD have done an amazing job AND losing the AFCCG was mostly on the coaches. They are not mutually exclusive, and we don't have to force an "either, or" argument. They need to get better, and that's ok. Their progress does not delegitamize the need for more growth.

 

The moment you stop obcessing about your failures is the same moment you stop getting better. And we are not done getting better.

[Bangarang]

It’s probably worth mentioning that Reid inherited a team that finished 2-14 before he was hired. 
 

Reid and McD essentially tore their teams down to the studs and both have done a fantastic job in building things back up. 

[FireChans]

16 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I agree.   We are ahead of the Chiefs' timeline.  That is a credit to Beane and McDermott.  Mahomes stepped onto the field as a starter with a roster that had been in the playoffs 4 out of the previous 5 years.  JA17 was stepping onto the field with a franchise that had made the playoffs once in the previous 18 years and a roster with the highest dead cap hit in the NFL.

 

We are behind their timeline.

 

Andy Reid found his franchise QB and won a Super Bowl in his third season (before he needed to be paid). We found our franchise QB and have not won a Super Bowl in his third season.

 

Our cap situation is not much better than there's and they have a better roster than ours.  We are a bridesmaid.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

This is a great post and comparison between the two regimes.

 

Only thing is I reject your comment about throwing McD, etc "under the bus" after chiefs loss. Beane and McD have done an amazing job AND losing the AFCCG was mostly on the coaches. They are not mutually exclusive, and we don't have to force an "either, or" argument. They need to get better, and that's ok. Their progress does not delegitamize the need for more growth.

 

The moment you stop obcessing about your failures is the same moment you stop getting better. And we are not done getting better.

 

The AFCCG was not mostly on the coaches. It was mostly on the players. 

10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It’s probably worth mentioning that Reid inherited a team that finished 2-14 before he was hired. 
 

Reid and McD essentially tore their teams down to the studs and both have done a fantastic job in building things back up. 

 

He did. Albeit not one without talent. It was a 2-14 team with 5 pro bowlers in 2012. Crazy.

[JGMcD2]

56 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We are behind their timeline.

 

Andy Reid found his franchise QB and won a Super Bowl in his third season (before he needed to be paid). We found our franchise QB and have not won a Super Bowl in his third season.

 

Our cap situation is not much better than there's and they have a better roster than ours.  We are a bridesmaid.

 

13 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

People are likely going to argue that we’re in a worse position than KC was. They’re going to say KC had a Super Bowl caliber roster that was short a QB and then were able to keep it together for a few years with a young QB making a rookie salary when they hit their peak. Whereas Buffalo is going to have to give Josh a big contract before that peak comes in Buffalo.

 

That’s what they’re going to say. I don’t agree, but that’s going to be the argument. 
 

Also, something about Beane being a crappy drafter because he doesn’t make enough high risk picks, but they crucify him when he makes high risk picks and they don’t immediately become as good as they read they would be on Bleacher Report. Also, probably something about wasting money. They’ll probably say that too. 

Haha. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by JGMcD2