Long Suffering Fan Posted February 6, 2021 Posted February 6, 2021 This article is behind a paywall: https://theathletic.com/2365170/2021/02/05/buffalo-bills-free-agency-matt-milano-daryl-williams-john-brown/?source=weeklyemail While some people like Joe B and some don't, I have fallen in the first category ever since he was learning his trade at WGR. My basic premise is that a lot of sports opinions, including my own, are bound to be wrong and at least Joe B puts some effort in. A couple of excerpts and summaries of the article: - While $175M is the floor, there has been some talk of it being higher than that for next year. It would need to be at $181M for the Bills to be right at the cap as of now. This accounts for the $3.7M roll over from this year. This does NOT include any current free agents like Mongo or Milano. This means that there HAS to be some cuts - not just that they would be nice, but that they are needed. - There is this take on Trent Murphy that I find hard to argue with: Quote DE Trent Murphy Age: 31 in December Status: Unrestricted free agent Verdict: Goes The Bills made a mistake in keeping Trent Murphy for the 2020 season. They missed out on $7 million in rollover savings to 2021 for a player who was a healthy scratch for eight of the team’s 19 games. Lotulelei’s opt-out and Epenesa’s slow start likely convinced them to retain Murphy, but the Bills could have kept defensive tackle Vincent Taylor, played Jefferson at defensive end and delivered a similar result. Murphy’s contract has now expired, and with Hughes, Addison, Epenesa and Johnson all under contract for 2021, Murphy will likely play elsewhere next season. While understandable, this was still a mistake by McBeane. Having an extra $7M this year would have really helped to sign someone like Mongo or Milano. - His guess (because that is really all it is at this point) at who are cut is Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and (everyone's favorite) Lee Smith, for a total saving of ~$20.5M. He also predicts that there will be a contract restructure for Addison, Morse, and Klein for some additional savings. - With those numbers in mind, his prediction is that Milano will be kept if the cap is $185M and not kept if it is $175M The whole article is worth a read and I recommend it. There is a lot of detail and a lot that sounds right. I am looking forward to see how close he actually gets. 3 1
First Round Bust Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 the hard part of being a GM Lets say the Bills have 20-25M in cap space which reflects it being bumped-up to 185M and some vets are cut or re-structured: 5M has to be budgeted to sign the 2021 draft picks 1.5M goes to the practice squad salaries to carry them over the entire 2021 season 2-3M Beane keeps as annual insurance-carryover per usual now the hidden costs - the RFAs: Ike B (LG) - only Dawkins, Morse and Ford are under contract currently Levi - the other corner - Josh Norman is gone so its Levi and Dane Jackson (and likely a high draft pick) Corey B - led NFL in punt avg and there are 11 UFA punter/potential openings in 2021 backup qb - Barkley is UFA last season 2,25M versus Davis Webb who is RFA - do the math on those 4 positions and either you pay them or risk poach by the teams that have silly cap space, and the Bills have more holes than the current UFA (Milano, Williams, Mongo). So likely-approx half the available cap will taken up by the above Then we can turn to the UFA market and bargain shop....or do you extend Josh this season...the earlier the better as it saves over the long-run
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