Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[BobbyC81]

On 2/5/2021 at 5:55 PM, JohnNord said:

With all due respect, why does everyone think pending Bills FA are going to take a “hometown discount?” People said this last about Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips, and the elected to sign for more money.  It’s thought to fault both who had yet to see a big money contract 
 

As much as he probably likes playing in Buffalo, I definitely wouldn’t expect him to take a pay cut to stay.  

I believe Beane will again earn his salary this offseason.  We don’t know what the salary cap number will be, but it doesn’t sound good.  Some good players in the NFL may be shocked when they’re cut and there isn’t a lot of money available. A patient bargain hunter may be able to get some good players at a discount. 

[DCofNC]

23 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thank you, I understand now, it wasn't clear to me before. 

 

But I think the Bills have to pay him at least league minimum salary.  John Brown has 7 years so $1.05M assuming not much rise this year. So that would become a $6.25M cap hit.  (I'm looking for where I read this and can't find it).  Or I guess in your scenario, convert all but league minimum into signing bonus so we'd pay him $1.05M + $6M bonus, and have a cap hit of $1.05M + 3M + $1.6M or $5.65M cap hit this year and $3M next.

 

I expect that Beane and his capologists have clever plans, but at some point the Bills need to make hard decisions.  I also expect that Brown would at least want to test the waters if there's a team that would like him without a pay cut.  It wouldn't shock me if Beane would trade him for a late round pick.  Remember some of the players Beane traded.

 

I think there are two questions: 

One is, what do the Bills think about his injury history?  Brown, like Milano, is a talented player who makes an impact when he's healthy but is hard to replace with the "next guy up" if he's not (Brown: speed+route running).  So when he's out for several games, the offense has to be re-worked to some extent.  Brown had multiple injuries this season - foot, knee, and ankle. 

 

The Bills could think that these were a cascade from the original injury and just "one of those things" and he could have a 16 game season next year.  Or they could think that it's part of being a smaller WR who has been hammered for 7 years by big WR and likely to continue or accelerate as he ages.

 

The other is, Brown seems able to be neutralized and taken out completely in big games by physical corner play.  Do they want to move in a different direction?  I think they brought Kenny Stills in to have a look-see whether he was someone they could work with who has similar speed, but is bigger and heavier and might in theory, be harder to take away.  None of us know the outcome of that look.

 

All valid, there’s ways to make it all work is what I’m getting at.  I don’t know what they think of him.  I know as a player, I’d rather play where I know I’m going to get a shot to perform and win, as odd as this is to say, that’s Buffalo now.

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, ColeB said:

I believe Beane will again earn his salary this offseason.  We don’t know what the salary cap number will be, but it doesn’t sound good.  Some good players in the NFL may be shocked when they’re cut and there isn’t a lot of money available. A patient bargain hunter may be able to get some good players at a discount. 

that’s what I’m hoping for too.  The only problem is that the Bills don’t have a ton of cap space even with the best projection.  So Beane is going to have to get rid of a few players and then be really smart with the limited funds the team.  Either way, I have confidence as well

[YoloinOhio]

8 hours ago, daz28 said:

Half the league has to cut salary.  Many of the remaining teams don't have cash to give all these guys high salaries.  I think you'll see A LOT of restructuring, as NFL players see what happened to NHL players on the UFA front.  If they refuse to re-negotiate, they will be putting themselves in a risk pool, which is unlike any free agency we've ever seen.  I could see Brown playing for $6M here.  

I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a restructure of Brown’s contract 

[billsfan89]

It all depends where the cap sits. If the cap is under 185 million which many think it will be I think Brown is a cap casualty unless he takes a massive pay cut to get his cap number below 5 million. If the cap is over 195 million and the Bills actually have some room to work with then I think Brown can stay esp if he takes a small pay cut to lower his cap number to around 7ish million. 

[billsfan_34]

14 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Not sure I like the idea of Davis as the #2 as we would be downgrading in speed significantly...I actually think our offense needs more speed 

Beasley/Stills number 2 or grab a WR via FA/draft- just my armchair opinion.

Edited February 8, 2021 by billsfan_34

[Mountain Man]

On 07/02/2021 at 6:06 PM, thenorthremembers said:

Right essential space to sign better and younger talent.

To sign existing talent. They need the cap space with Allen's and Edmunds' contracts coming up and both starting safeties near contract end

On 07/02/2021 at 7:27 AM, Aussie Joe said:

So we aren’t signing Fuller for 4 yrs $67M?

On Madden? Maybe

On Planet Earth? Doubtful 

[YoloinOhio]

Random but TIL that he has had his nickname Smokey since birth; it’s not because he is fast 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Brown_(wide_receiver)

[Thurman#1]

On 2/8/2021 at 10:39 AM, Doc said:

 

Even they don't/can't know. 

 

 

Nor can they know it about Allen, Diggs or any player.

 

Unless you think they should let Hughes, Beasley and everyone else the same age go, you have to figure that based on his career so far he's not injury prone, that the odds of injury do go up as people age, but that they seem to be willing to take that risk at that age on guys who aren't prone to injury.

 

They do know him and his willingness to play through injury and his injury history far better than we do.

 

I don't think injury will be much of a factor, unless they know something we don't know, which certainly is possible.

 

IMO they will try to get his salary hit down in some way and keep him, if possible, but he certainly also might be let go. Salary, I think, will be a far bigger determiner of what they do with him than injury.

[machine gun kelly]

On 2/8/2021 at 1:53 AM, daz28 said:

Half the league has to cut salary.  Many of the remaining teams don't have cash to give all these guys high salaries.  I think you'll see A LOT of restructuring, as NFL players see what happened to NHL players on the UFA front.  If they refuse to re-negotiate, they will be putting themselves in a risk pool, which is unlike any free agency we've ever seen.  I could see Brown playing for $6M here.  

Ill agree half the league will purge some contracts, but only 11 are under water as of now.  A recent sign was the Texans starting Center for three years and arguably one of their better and consistent lineman was just released.  The significance was the Texans were already under the cap by $9 mil.

[Don Otreply]

Getting a replacement for John Brown who is his equal across the board will likely cost nearly as much or even more than Brown himself.  It is the difference between the two salaries that reflects any savings, not Browns entire salary.  That and the childish reference to fanmadden being used as an actual reason that a team might trade, wave/cut a player is just plain poor intellectual  journalism, sad reflection on the writer really...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Getting a replacement for John Brown who is his equal across the board will likely cost nearly as much or even more than Brown himself.  It is the difference between the two salaries that reflects any savings, not Browns entire salary.  That and the childish reference to fanmadden being used as an actual reason that a team might trade, wave/cut a player is just plain poor intellectual  journalism, sad reflection on the writer really...

 

With Diggs as the #1 and Beasley in the slot, in this offense the #2 WR is lucky to catch 50 balls a season.  Brown has only exceeded that number twice in his career, in 2019 with the Bills when he was their #1 WR and think one other year early in his career.  Davis on a rookie contract caught in the mid 30's and early in the season wasn't playing as the #2 when Brown was still healthy.  With a year experience and playing as a true #2 all season can see him getting close to 50.  So the only thing Brown gives you that still maybe to be replaced is a little more speed.  You can draft a rookie burner for that and a rookie and Davis together won't cost more than about $2 mil. 

 

Or they sign some vet with speed for $2 to $3 mil.  So unless Brown is willing to take a huge pay cut down to that range can easily seeing him being replaced skill wise and still save $4 mil.

 

For this team to improve to become elite they need improvement in a handful of positions and little to no money available to do that with so they need to cut some players who present a large savings.  To me WR is the one position on this team that has enough depth so can afford to cut him without worrying about losing much production and skill wise.   They can cut D lineman but whomever they cut there, they need to replace with someone better for the team to improve.  As little as Brown played this year, they produced 2nd in the league without him.  So unless he agrees to cut salary in half or so, will be surprised if he's not cut.

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Nor can they know it about Allen, Diggs or any player.

 

Unless you think they should let Hughes, Beasley and everyone else the same age go, you have to figure that based on his career so far he's not injury prone, that the odds of injury do go up as people age, but that they seem to be willing to take that risk at that age on guys who aren't prone to injury.

 

They do know him and his willingness to play through injury and his injury history far better than we do.

 

I don't think injury will be much of a factor, unless they know something we don't know, which certainly is possible.

 

IMO they will try to get his salary hit down in some way and keep him, if possible, but he certainly also might be let go. Salary, I think, will be a far bigger determiner of what they do with him than injury.

 

Again it's a combination of things and the best we have to go off-of is what happened last season.  If any of the older guys you mentioned were coming-off injury-plagued seasons, sure, they'd be candidates for pay cut or being cut. 

 

35 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Getting a replacement for John Brown who is his equal across the board will likely cost nearly as much or even more than Brown himself.  It is the difference between the two salaries that reflects any savings, not Browns entire salary.  That and the childish reference to fanmadden being used as an actual reason that a team might trade, wave/cut a player is just plain poor intellectual  journalism, sad reflection on the writer really...

 

The guy I keep mentioning is Stills.  I think they can get him for $4M, maybe less, and he's been in Buffalo and knows the system.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Doc

[Eastport bills]

Brown became brittle and timid as his role as Josh's prime target became a complimentary option. He is a good receiver when he shows the ability to stay on the field and get consistent separation. He's got to show the swagger that Diggs, Beasley and Davis exhibit on GameDay. A highly motivated FA is probably the answer. 

[gonzo1105]

John Brown won’t be on the team next year. They drafted his replacement in Davis. They have Hodgins they drafted. They can draft another one, sign Stills for much cheaper. It makes no sense to keep a 9 million spot. He’s older, he’s been injured, carries a huge cap number with low dead money. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Wouldn't be surprised if this week start to see some movement either players signing extensions or cuts to free up money.  Match 17th is getting closer. 

 

Are we already in the Tag window??  Thought there was a pinned topic on NFL off-season dates?  Did the pin fall out?

[RyanC883]

Couldn’t we trade Brown for a 4th or 5.  I know he has a big cap hit, but there is likely some market for a late pick.  

On 2/8/2021 at 6:37 AM, ColeB said:

I believe Beane will again earn his salary this offseason.  We don’t know what the salary cap number will be, but it doesn’t sound good.  Some good players in the NFL may be shocked when they’re cut and there isn’t a lot of money available. A patient bargain hunter may be able to get some good players at a discount. 

as long as bargain hunting is not like the DL last year!

[BuffaloRebound]

I know it was only 1 game, but he was pretty bad when I re-watched the Colts playoff game.  Drops, no separation, and basically bullied by the Colts DB’s.  His money would be much better spent on a big bodied TE who can block and move the chains.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Couldn’t we trade Brown for a 4th or 5.  I know he has a big cap hit, but there is likely some market for a late pick.  

 

If there's a market, I'm sure Beane will exploit it.  On the plus side, he's got a solid catch %, low drops, and is 1 season removed from 1000+ yds.  He was just off a top-20 WR in total yards and YPG last year and he was patient and supportive towards a young QB.

 

On the other hand, his current salary/bonuses are at #32 in the league while his YPG this year are down in the 40s somewhere...#49  I think.

 

17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

as long as bargain hunting is not like the DL last year!

 

I think a problem with the "bargain hunting" on DL last year was that they weren't able to play guys in the positions they envisioned when they signed them.  If they'd been able to keep to the plan of platooning Harrison Phillips and Lotulelei at 1TDT, while platooning Butler and Oliver at 3TDT and using Jefferson in a hybrid DT/DE role, I think it's possible the result might have been better.

[Dukestreetking]

6 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

John Brown won’t be on the team next year. They drafted his replacement in Davis. They have Hodgins they drafted. They can draft another one, sign Stills for much cheaper. It makes no sense to keep a 9 million spot. He’s older, he’s been injured, carries a huge cap number with low dead money. 

Yes, I agree w assessment; this is a fair probability

 

But having just re-watched the Cards game, I was reminded of the sheer beauty of this Triple Threat...at times it looked like "they" could not be stopped.

 

Wasn't even a great JA game, but SD-CB-JB went 27 for 274...not too shabby.

 

Alas, I'm basking in nostalgia (despite the loss), and time moves on. But when JB was healthy, there definitely was "a thing".