Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Dukestreetking said: Rog, thanks for reply. I understand WAR vav baseball. I actually thought you were going deep Wharton MBA on me! Funny, I never thought of WAR application to football, but it could make sense. You've hit on something here. Baseball lends itself to complex statistical analysis, thus analytics more mature. But, w football players wearing 24/7 "G&C harnesses" (basically, 3 DoF accelerometers), AWS, etc.. the data can now be integrated for current/historical reliability...and thus use of WAR. The way I tend to view the WAR concept as it relates to football is through a very high level mathematical principal. With respect to WAR, does he pass the smell test!! LOL Don't think there's a good way to apply any real hard evidence, just more of a gut feel is the player worth the money or could they find a better more efficient solution. Maybe someone much smarter could figure out a way to actually develop some method to apply WAR, but not me.
RaoulDuke79 Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, Mat68 said: I think he is right. I dont think he replicates 2019 again. Certainly not with Diggs in the lineup.
Putin Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 5:22 PM, thenorthremembers said: Will Fuller or Curtis Samuel come on down. I wouldn’t mind that at all but I think we have bigger needs at other positions
Chicken Boo Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 6:41 PM, Aussie Joe said: Its certainly possible he is cut, but I think something like a $3m reduction might also be on the table. I can’t see any other team that will offer better than $4-5m in 2021 You might want to take a look at current WR contracts. Willie Snead is making $6 million a season.
Aussie Joe Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: You might want to take a look at current WR contracts. Willie Snead is making $6 million a season. You are aware that there is an expected decrease in Cap space around the League this off season? This is a bad year to be hitting the FA market if he is cut ...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 48 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said: Certainly not with Diggs in the lineup. Beasley damned near broke 1000 yds with Diggs in the lineup 22 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: You are aware that there is an expected decrease in Cap space around the League this off season? This is a bad year to be hitting the FA market if he is cut ... Still 8 teams with >$20M cap space - some ridiculously more - and 5 either have or will likely draft QB and could use WR Only takes one team with a need for your skills and a good offer
RaoulDuke79 Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Beasley damned near broke 1000 yds with Diggs in the lineup. Diggs is taking more throws away from Brown than Beasley. Beasley is the go to slot guy. Brown was the #1 until Diggs came along. We have another burner in McKenzie, so I think we could lose him without losing too much per se.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, RaoulDuke79 said: Diggs is taking more throws away from Brown than Beasley. Beasley is the go to slot guy. Brown was the #1 until Diggs came along. We have another burner in McKenzie, so I think we could lose him without losing too much per se. McKenzie is a free agent 1
Aussie Joe Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Still 8 teams with >$20M cap space - some ridiculously more - and 5 either have or will likely draft QB and could use WR Only takes one team with a need for your skills and a good offer Yep...only takes one to want him... But if I have got a lot of cap space and I look at the list of WR’s available..: do I want JB instead of someone that maybe doesn’t have his injury concerns? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/
LABILLBACKER Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 4 hours ago, RaoulDuke79 said: Certainly not with Diggs in the lineup. Yeah with Diggs & Beasley chewing up 80% of the targets and with the immergence of Davis, Smoke is odd man out with that contract. But we'll all be grateful in what he meant to Josh and this team in 2019.
Mountain Man Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 On 05/02/2021 at 11:22 PM, thenorthremembers said: Will Fuller or Curtis Samuel come on down. Makes no sense. The reason you cut Brown is to free up essential space.
Aussie Joe Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mountain Man said: Makes no sense. The reason you cut Brown is to free up essential space. So we aren’t signing Fuller for 4 yrs $67M? 1
DCofNC Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't understand this suggestion. Brown's current cap hit is $9.5M and you're proposing to convert it to $7M and add a year? So if you cut him, you get hit with 1.6M dead cap, his overall cap hit to keep him is 9.5M, his base salary is 7.05M, so if he gets cut, he essentially loses all guarantees of money this year and the Bills take a $1.6M cap hit for not keeping him. This is option one. The Bills would then have to replace him, which I think it’s pretty obvious they would not be able to do with a quality veteran for less than 4-5 million a year, probably more. My purposed idea is to convert his salary this year into signing bonus, and kill his other bonuses for the year, he gets paid 7.05M and doesn’t have to worry, winner. Add a year of non guaranteed money to the deal, now the Bills have a cap hit this year of 1.6M for his original signing bonus and 3.6M for this bonus. You keep your number 2 WR for a 5.2M cap hit. Winning. Now next year if you want to move on, designate him a post June 1 cut, the 3.6M in cap you moved to next year can be deferred over 2 seasons, so he’s only a dead cap hit of 1.8M for 2 years. If you keep him then you can play with it from there. I would much rather have a true #2 WR, who is already trusted and knows the system for $5.2M than have to rely on Davis or somebody like Stills who will cost about the same anyway. 1
The Firebaugh Kid Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: McKenzie is a free agent And a huge priority to sign and USE WAY MORE.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 34 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: And a huge priority to sign and USE WAY MORE. I don't disagree especially if he could do punt returns and we move on from Roberts. Though he was a mixed bag vs. Miami - one great and one scary as hell. In any event, unless McKenzie gets unexpected huge money from someone else, he's fast and he's nimble and obviously willing to do whatever he's asked. I think we should keep him.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, DCofNC said: So if you cut him, you get hit with 1.6M dead cap, his overall cap hit to keep him is 9.5M, his base salary is 7.05M, so if he gets cut, he essentially loses all guarantees of money this year and the Bills take a $1.6M cap hit for not keeping him. This is option one. The Bills would then have to replace him, which I think it’s pretty obvious they would not be able to do with a quality veteran for less than 4-5 million a year, probably more. My purposed idea is to convert his salary this year into signing bonus, and kill his other bonuses for the year, he gets paid 7.05M and doesn’t have to worry, winner. Add a year of non guaranteed money to the deal, now the Bills have a cap hit this year of 1.6M for his original signing bonus and 3.6M for this bonus. You keep your number 2 WR for a 5.2M cap hit. Winning. Now next year if you want to move on, designate him a post June 1 cut, the 3.6M in cap you moved to next year can be deferred over 2 seasons, so he’s only a dead cap hit of 1.8M for 2 years. If you keep him then you can play with it from there. I would much rather have a true #2 WR, who is already trusted and knows the system for $5.2M than have to rely on Davis or somebody like Stills who will cost about the same anyway. Thank you, I understand now, it wasn't clear to me before. But I think the Bills have to pay him at least league minimum salary. John Brown has 7 years so $1.05M assuming not much rise this year. So that would become a $6.25M cap hit. (I'm looking for where I read this and can't find it). Or I guess in your scenario, convert all but league minimum into signing bonus so we'd pay him $1.05M + $6M bonus, and have a cap hit of $1.05M + 3M + $1.6M or $5.65M cap hit this year and $3M next. I expect that Beane and his capologists have clever plans, but at some point the Bills need to make hard decisions. I also expect that Brown would at least want to test the waters if there's a team that would like him without a pay cut. It wouldn't shock me if Beane would trade him for a late round pick. Remember some of the players Beane traded. I think there are two questions: One is, what do the Bills think about his injury history? Brown, like Milano, is a talented player who makes an impact when he's healthy but is hard to replace with the "next guy up" if he's not (Brown: speed+route running). So when he's out for several games, the offense has to be re-worked to some extent. Brown had multiple injuries this season - foot, knee, and ankle. The Bills could think that these were a cascade from the original injury and just "one of those things" and he could have a 16 game season next year. Or they could think that it's part of being a smaller WR who has been hammered for 7 years by big WR and likely to continue or accelerate as he ages. The other is, Brown seems able to be neutralized and taken out completely in big games by physical corner play. Do they want to move in a different direction? I think they brought Kenny Stills in to have a look-see whether he was someone they could work with who has similar speed, but is bigger and heavier and might in theory, be harder to take away. None of us know the outcome of that look.
billsfan_34 Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 6:12 PM, Worstcaseontario said: I think john takes a home town discount I think going into age 32, he wont have an option.
Doc Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 7 hours ago, Mountain Man said: Makes no sense. The reason you cut Brown is to free up essential space. It makes no sense because Fuller can't stay healthy. Fuller would be an interesting get and could come fairly cheap.
billsfan_34 Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 13 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said: I agree. Health is an issue. What $8M saved if let go. Are there other needs we need to fill? Yes. Can we replace 30-40 receptions through the draft with someone that can potentially bring this WR group to elite.... yes. Use that $8M and resign say Daryl Williams? Seems simple. I like Elijah Moore at 30, he replaces Brown and McKenzie. Future replacement slot guy for Beasley even though he can play everywhere. Keep getting skill positions on offense though the draft and fill some needs on defense through FA. I think Diggs, Beasley, Davis and Moore can be a group for the next 3-4 years. Extend Diggs and Beasley. Restructure Brown or let him walk. Davis is ready, Stills is in the wings, and Roberts/McKenzie play/can play ST’s. The FO does not have a tough decision here.
AlCowlingsTaxiService Posted February 7, 2021 Posted February 7, 2021 He’s as good as gone. Fans who believe otherwise are thinking from their hearts. 2
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