Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, cba fan said:

Stills is no longer on the team and is a FA now. I would like to see him signed though.

 

OK, was in house...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What would you say to someone who suggested that Mario Addison will be a great pass rusher for us next year because in Carolina, he had 6 straight years of double digit QB Hits and 4 straight years of >=9 sacks?

 

Things someone might respond:

-he's playing next to different people in Buffalo

-he's playing in a somewhat different system now

-he's older and may be starting to fade

 

There are lots of reasons to look at data and consider some stats more or less relevant to the present day.  "Cherry picking" is typically used to describe looking at a bunch of stats for the same time period and choosing the ones which support one's case while ignoring those that don't, without a coherent argument as to why those stats are less relevant.

 

In the case of a WR playing in a given offensive system with a specific QB, there's a case to be made that the more relevant stats are those generated in that system with that QB, not the stats from 3 or more years ago with a different QB in a different system

 

 

Fair point.  But I'd also argue that in the case of lineman either offense or defense, stats are harder to solely gauge off of in general.  As you stated who they are playing next to and the system are bigger factors.  Also age is a big factor which likely hurt Addison.  WR and RB are more stat driven positions and easier to project future based on prior stats.  In this case the poster only wanted to include the past two seasons, forget prior years, but also lets include 2019.  I'd counter ok you don't want to consider years in other systems, fine, but then lets only look at 2020.  Kind of becomes cherry picking when only selecting the best two years.

 

But the more important thing, the poster was making the argument that in a full season Brown was on pace to catch 68 balls. My whole argument was that the only way Brown is catching 68 passes is with guys like Diggs, Bealsey, and Davis catching much less as when the QB is already completing 69% of his passes, there aren't more completions out there.  Likely at the end of the year the number of catches, yards, TD's  aren't going to rise when they are already at record breaking levels.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Fair point.  But I'd also argue that in the case of lineman either offense or defense, stats are harder to solely gauge off of in general.  As you stated who they are playing next to and the system are bigger factors.  Also age is a big factor which likely hurt Addison.  WR and RB are more stat driven positions and easier to project future based on prior stats.  In this case the poster only wanted to include the past two seasons, forget prior years, but also lets include 2019.  I'd counter ok you don't want to consider years in other systems, fine, but then lets only look at 2020.  Kind of becomes cherry picking when only selecting the best two years.

 

I think WR and RB are very system-driven positions.  WR depend upon the QB, and both QB and RB effectiveness depend upon the OL.

 

I can agree that there has to be a criteria, like "last 3 seasons" "only seasons in this system" or it looks kind of cherry-picky

 

19 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

But the more important thing, the poster was making the argument that in a full season Brown was on pace to catch 68 balls. My whole argument was that the only way Brown is catching 68 passes is with guys like Diggs, Bealsey, and Davis catching much less as when the QB is already completing 69% of his passes, there aren't more completions out there.  Likely at the end of the year the number of catches, yards, TD's  aren't going to rise when they are already at record breaking levels.

 

I odn't think that's a good argument.  Completion % is passes caught/passes thrown.  One point to consider is that the Bills ranked only #15 in the league for # of offensive plays with 1034.  #1 is the LA Chargers with 1127, 90 more plays.  For the sake of argument, if those are pass plays, 69% completion would be 62 additional receptions.

 

Crosscheck: the Bills were actually #11 for passing attempts with 596.  #1 was Pittsburgh with 656, or 60 additional pass attempts.  Again at 69% completions, that would be 41 additional passes. 

 

So there are probably more completions out there without invoking new records or anything.  And that's not even addressing plays lost to penalties.

 

I don't quite understand the "68 passes in a full season" argument, but Brown caught 33 passes in 9 games, which would project (in my math) out to 58 receptions in a 16 game season, or 25 additional receptions. 

 

So, if you're looking for 25 additional receptions, they could come from having 60 additional offensive plays (due to converting more 1st downs), of which in a  60% pass ratio 36 would be pass plays and 69% completion would mean 25 additional receptions.

 

I'm not arguing that's probable, just pointing out that it isn't, logically speaking, the "zero sum game" you're portraying where more receptions for Brown mean fewer receptions for Diggs, Beasley and Davis or that Brown's catch % would have to rise or anything

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Brown has great hands and is a very good WR. He has speed that Davis does not. They should keep him and try to redo his contract. This is a passing offense and they need all the playmaker they can find. Get another TE in the draft or FA. 

Brown should know if he gets cut he probably takes a big pay cut. Bills can't replace his skill set easily. In a perfect world he restructures his deal gets his guaranteed income this year and the Bills get some cap relief.

Jefferson, Addison, Roberts, Klein, Murphy, Mantekevich, and Butler are the dead weight that the team needs to release or not re-sign.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Jefferson, Addison, Roberts, Klein, Murphy, Mantekevich, and Butler are the dead weight that the team needs to release or not re-sign.

 

Now you're just trolling, right? 

 

The Bills  should release a DL who took 50% of the defensive snaps, another DL who took 40%, the DE who played 60% of the snaps in his 15 games and was considered critical enough to hold out of the last, the OLB that they currently have under contract who was 4th on the team in tackles, 1st in sacks, and 2nd in QB hits while playing 60% of the snaps, and one of their ace ST players who seems to have moved into the backup LB role, because they're "dead weight"?

 

Amazing how we managed to win 15 games with so much "dead weight" starting or playing key roles.   😆

 

And after we rack up that $10.5M in dead cap cutting these guys who played a lot, what's your plan to replace them?  Oh, I bet it's real specific  -
"get someone else in the draft or FA"

[DCofNC]

Why not approach him with a renegotiation? Just add a year to his deal, convert his salary to signing bonus, with base at vet min, guaranteed for this year.  Low base plus roster bonus for next season, no guarantees (If he’s smart he gets a no offset guarantee thrown in to next year) He gets paid, you keep the weapon and punt the cap hit out a season, which you could then defer again as a post June 1 cut next year, so your cap hit becomes ~7M this year, moves to 4.5 next year, if you keep him the roster bonus kicks it up, or you post June 1 cut and it’s 2.25 against the cap for 2 years.. 

 

Hopefully, Beane is as intelligent as an average guy posting on a message board.  I see no need to lose a talented guy in the middle of a SB window that’s going to get awful tight when Josh resigns.

[Old Coot]

Brown had only 33 receptions but then he was hampered by that leg injury.  He seemed to be a non-factor in several games.

 

Perhaps someone who has studied the all 22's could comment on his performance.  It's difficult to judge a WR's performance when he's not targeted all that much (52 times in 9 games but 4 games with 2 or fewer targets).

[Dukestreetking]

7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Football doesn't use the WAR concept, but if they did, he'd look pretty bad!

The whole comment was very interesting and well-argued. No kidding.

 

So interesting, in fact, that I'm willing to be the dumb guy: what is WAR analysis/concept? Six-sigma related?

 

No need to explain...If you provide a link, I would really appreciate it. Maybe football should be using it!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

Brown had only 33 receptions but then he was hampered by that leg injury.  He seemed to be a non-factor in several games.

 

Perhaps someone who has studied the all 22's could comment on his performance.  It's difficult to judge a WR's performance when he's not targeted all that much (52 times in 9 games but 4 games with 2 or fewer targets).

 

? 2 games with 2 or fewer targets?

LAR which he left halfway with a foot injury (he was on injury report the previous week so probably hampered, 2 targets, 0 receptions

1st NWE in which we only passed 18 times total - Bease and Gabe Davis only saw 2 targets each in that game - Brown had 2 targets,  1 reception for 21 yds

Also saw only 4 targets, 0 receptions in KAN game, in which he had a knee injury (I think) against Las Vegas week 4, was out week 5, and tried to come back probably too soon.

 

So games where he played but was not injured or hampered:

NYJ 70 yds, MIA 82 yds, LVR 42 yds, NWE 21 yds (low pass count) SEA 99 yds, AZ 72 yds, 2nd MIA, 72 yds.

 

If you just want a quick statistical way to understand Brown's impact on the game, it's to look at Davis, Beasley and Brown's numbers together.

Diggs is gonna get his receptions.  Double cover him, put your best guy on him, he's just that good.

So then with Brown in the game, it's "pick your poison". 

Indianapolis played to take away Brown; Davis and Bease went off (0 receptions for Brown: 57 yds for Beasley)

The Ravens played to take away Beasley: Brown 62 yds

Kansas City tried to take away both, but were more successful with Brown (he's easier to mug I guess) Brown 24 yds, Beasley 88.

 

Brown is good, and the key to remember is Cole Beasley's comment after the Ravens game that even when he's not making receptions, he can be opening things up for someone else.

 

39 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Why not approach him with a renegotiation? Just add a year to his deal, convert his salary to signing bonus, with base at vet min, guaranteed for this year.  Low base plus roster bonus for next season, no guarantees (If he’s smart he gets a no offset guarantee thrown in to next year) He gets paid, you keep the weapon and punt the cap hit out a season, which you could then defer again as a post June 1 cut next year, so your cap hit becomes ~7M this year, moves to 4.5 next year, if you keep him the roster bonus kicks it up, or you post June 1 cut and it’s 2.25 against the cap for 2 years..

 

I don't understand this suggestion.  Brown's current cap hit is $9.5M and you're proposing to convert it to $7M and add a year?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think WR and RB are very system-driven positions.  WR depend upon the QB, and both QB and RB effectiveness depend upon the OL.

 

I can agree that there has to be a criteria, like "last 3 seasons" "only seasons in this system" or it looks kind of cherry-picky

 

 

I odn't think that's a good argument.  Completion % is passes caught/passes thrown.  One point to consider is that the Bills ranked only #15 in the league for # of offensive plays with 1034.  #1 is the LA Chargers with 1127, 90 more plays.  For the sake of argument, if those are pass plays, 69% completion would be 62 additional receptions.

 

Crosscheck: the Bills were actually #11 for passing attempts with 596.  #1 was Pittsburgh with 656, or 60 additional pass attempts.  Again at 69% completions, that would be 41 additional passes. 

 

So there are probably more completions out there without invoking new records or anything.  And that's not even addressing plays lost to penalties.

 

I don't quite understand the "68 passes in a full season" argument, but Brown caught 33 passes in 9 games, which would project (in my math) out to 58 receptions in a 16 game season, or 25 additional receptions. 

 

So, if you're looking for 25 additional receptions, they could come from having 60 additional offensive plays (due to converting more 1st downs), of which in a  60% pass ratio 36 would be pass plays and 69% completion would mean 25 additional receptions.

 

I'm not arguing that's probable, just pointing out that it isn't, logically speaking, the "zero sum game" you're portraying where more receptions for Brown mean fewer receptions for Diggs, Beasley and Davis or that Brown's catch % would have to rise or anything

 

 

 

 

 

I'd argue though of all positions WR and RB still may be the best two positions to look at stats

 

Hmmmm.... interesting in that you say the Bills were 11th in pass attempts, but yet Allen was 6th among QB's.  Does that mean that many teams had backup QB's also throwing that many passes that they dropped that far?  There is no QB in the top 15 who played less than 15 games either so so hard to figure out that difference between 11th for the team and 6th for Allen??  There's 11 passes un accounted for Buffalo, recall a couple of passes by McKenzie and Brown.  And 9 unaccounted for in Pitt.

 

The other posters argument was one game Brown was hurt in 1st half, only played half of final Miami game, so add it all up means he played 8 games and for some reason he said Brown caught 34 passes in 8 games, so for 16 games that would equate to 68 catches.  And  BTW if as this poster was arguing Brown did have 68 catches, that would be the 2nd highest total for his career, topped only by 2019 with the Bills when he was their #1 WR

 

 

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Brown has great hands and is a very good WR. He has speed that Davis does not. They should keep him and try to redo his contract. This is a passing offense and they need all the playmaker they can find. Get another TE in the draft or FA. 

Brown should know if he gets cut he probably takes a big pay cut. Bills can't replace his skill set easily. In a perfect world he restructures his deal gets his guaranteed income this year and the Bills get some cap relief.

Jefferson, Addison, Roberts, Klein, Murphy, Mantekevich, and Butler are the dead weight that the team needs to release or not re-sign.

 

You getting rid of 4 def lineman?  So who are you going to replace them with and find the money for the new guys and how do you expect to improve the overall team.  And BTW Murphy's and Roberts are both a  FA so there's no saving there at all.  Just two roster spots to fill

 

The Bills only have I believe it's around 40 players under contract for the 2021 season so that's alot of bodies they need to find and pay for just to field a full roster.  With a team on the verge of winning Super Bowl ,I'd hate to be counting on 6th and 7th round draft picks to make the roster either so maybe 5 draft picks make team.  That leaves about a dozen slots to fill with either rookie or vet FA

 

40 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

The whole comment was very interesting and well-argued. No kidding.

 

So interesting, in fact, that I'm willing to be the dumb guy: what is WAR analysis/concept? Six-sigma related?

 

No need to explain...If you provide a link, I would really appreciate it. Maybe football should be using it!

 

I  haven't seen any statistical analysis for WAR, just more basic understanding.  Actually most I probably saw was in the movie about the Oakland A's LOL

 

Basic understanding is WAR Wins Above Replacement.  You want to sign this expensive FA to take the place of some lower paid player.  How many more wins will the expensive guy get you.  Much easier to project in a stat driven sport like baseball.

 

My gut tells me though Brown at a hit of $9.5 mil vrs G Davis at $.9 mil.  At 10% of the salary Davis comes out way ahead in the WAR game.  Think Davis has more chance of improving on rookie numbers than Brown does too.

 

From Wikipedia:

 

Wins Above Replacement or Wins Above Replacement Player, commonly abbreviated to WAR or WARP, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic developed to sum up "a player's total contributions to his team".[1] A player's WAR value is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player: a player who may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort.[2]

Individual WAR values are calculated from the number and success rate of on-field actions by a player (in batting, baserunning, fielding, and pitching), with higher values reflecting larger contributions to a team's success.[2] WAR value also depends on what position a player plays, with more value going to weaker hitting positions like catcher than positions with strong hitting such as first base.[2] A high WAR value built up by a player reflects successful performance, a large quantity of playing time, or both.

 

[Dukestreetking]

15 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Basic understanding is WAR Wins Above Replacement.  You want to sign this expensive FA to take the place of some lower paid player.  How many more wins will the expensive guy get you.  Much easier to project in a stat driven sport like baseball.

Rog, thanks for reply. I understand WAR vav baseball. I actually thought you were going deep Wharton MBA on me!

 

Funny, I never thought of WAR application to football, but it could make sense. You've hit on something here.

 

Baseball lends itself to complex statistical analysis, thus analytics more mature.

 

But, w football players wearing 24/7 "G&C harnesses"  (basically, 3 DoF accelerometers), AWS, etc..

the data can now be integrated for current/historical reliability...and thus use of WAR.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/5/2021 at 3:22 PM, thenorthremembers said:

Will Fuller or Curtis Samuel come on down.

 Or Nelson Agholor. Basically which ever of the three we will be able to afford.

[RunTheBall]

No one is trading for John Brown. That’s Bill’s fan fantasyland thinking our players are better or more valuable than they are.

 

Only way Brown stays: 1) McBeane thinks his decreased production is solely a result of injury and not losing a step 2) He restructures.

 

It’s that simple. 

 

Given the salary cap next year, I think Brown would be amendable to a restructure and I think he stays assuming #1 is true.

[Doc]

24 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 Or Nelson Agholor. Basically which ever of the three we will be able to afford.

 

I'd look into him and see if he'd come for reasonable money.  If not turn to Stills.  With Brown it's best to know when to move on and I think it's time.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

John Brown disappeared this year and played himself out of town.

I want Beane to use a high draft/trade/FA resource to bring in an another talented WR.

 

 

 

[Old Coot]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

? 2 games with 2 or fewer targets?

LAR which he left halfway with a foot injury (he was on injury report the previous week so probably hampered, 2 targets, 0 receptions

1st NWE in which we only passed 18 times total - Bease and Gabe Davis only saw 2 targets each in that game - Brown had 2 targets,  1 reception for 21 yds

Also saw only 4 targets, 0 receptions in KAN game, in which he had a knee injury (I think) against Las Vegas week 4, was out week 5, and tried to come back probably too soon.

 

So games where he played but was not injured or hampered:

NYJ 70 yds, MIA 82 yds, LVR 42 yds, NWE 21 yds (low pass count) SEA 99 yds, AZ 72 yds, 2nd MIA, 72 yds.

 

If you just want a quick statistical way to understand Brown's impact on the game, it's to look at Davis, Beasley and Brown's numbers together.

Diggs is gonna get his receptions.  Double cover him, put your best guy on him, he's just that good.

So then with Brown in the game, it's "pick your poison". 

Indianapolis played to take away Brown; Davis and Bease went off (0 receptions for Brown: 57 yds for Beasley)

The Ravens played to take away Beasley: Brown 62 yds

Kansas City tried to take away both, but were more successful with Brown (he's easier to mug I guess) Brown 24 yds, Beasley 88.

 

Brown is good, and the key to remember is Cole Beasley's comment after the Ravens game that even when he's not making receptions, he can be opening things up for someone else.

 

Point taken.  He's better than I thought.  I appreciate that you gave supporting facts rather than just an unsupported conclusion.

[CEN-CAL17]

Draft Elijah Moore. Dude is a 4.4 guy, one of the best route runners in the draft. Great hands, can play the slot or outside. Quick, can make people miss. Moore will be a stud in the league, especially with the right QB.

 

People may say 30 is too high. Kid is a stud. McLaurin and Deebo Samuels went early round 2. Potentially Moore can be better. Moore replaces Brown and McKenzie. Moore played RB in high school as well as WR, I think he got backfield carries at ole miss too.

 

Ultimately I’d like to see the Bills trade down 5-6 spots and gain an extra 3rd.... we will see. But Moore will be off the board in top 45 guaranteed. He’s better than Toney who people think is a top 25 pick. Except Toney can’t learn a playbook.... You replace Brown, and save $8M to resign/sign a FA. Seems simple.
 

Diggs, Beasley, Davis, Moore

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by CEN-CAL17

[PrimeTime101]

On 2/5/2021 at 6:49 PM, wppete said:

I don’t see them cutting Brown. It’s not a bad contract and when healthy John Brown is a great #2 or #3 and I think he is a bigtime locker room presence. 

Fact when your talent is your speed, age catches up to you around now. We have enough big talkers in the locker room. John Brown is not Kyle Williams where he was so good with the mental aspect before, during and after games.   Diggs and Allen are more then enough for locker room talkers. When you start mixing in a guy that's getting Injured often on top of it all? if they rework his contract I am fine with it... If they let him go I am fine with it.

 

this is a Not For Long for reasons.

[Mat68]

I think he is right.  I dont think he replicates 2019 again.  

[CEN-CAL17]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Fact when your talent is your speed, age catches up to you around now. We have enough big talkers in the locker room. John Brown is not Kyle Williams where he was so good with the mental aspect before, during and after games.   Diggs and Allen are more then enough for locker room talkers. When you start mixing in a guy that's getting Injured often on top of it all? if they rework his contract I am fine with it... If they let him go I am fine with it.

 

this is a Not For Long for reasons.

I agree. Health is an issue. What $8M saved if let go. Are there other needs we need to fill? Yes. Can we replace 30-40 receptions through the draft with someone that can potentially bring this WR group to elite.... yes. Use that $8M and resign say Daryl Williams? Seems simple. 

I like Elijah Moore at 30, he replaces Brown and McKenzie. Future replacement slot guy for Beasley even though he can play everywhere. Keep getting skill positions on offense though the draft and fill some needs on defense through FA.

 

I think Diggs, Beasley, Davis and Moore can be a group for the next 3-4 years. Extend Diggs and Beasley.