Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[YoloinOhio]

I love Smoke but he hits the triple whammy of cap casualty - age, injury, expensive. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

First off, while with the Bills he has averaged a 63 percent catch rate, so your numbers don’t make sense to me. Secondly, deep  threats who get tossed bombs ALWAYS have lower catch rates than guys who catch short throws, and Bruce Arians pushes the ball deep more often than any other offensive coach in the league. Also, his catch rate plummeted when Lamar Jackson replaced Flacco, a good deep ball thrower (see the 2018 game logs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02/gamelog/). This is what accounts for his lifetime catch rate and nothing else. For comparison, look at RB catch rates; they’re usually around 75 percent plus. But RBs don’t take the top off of a defense and force the safeties to play deep. Brown is a currently better player than Davis (who I like; don’t get me wrong), who can’t really move his hips fluidly—which limits him coming out of cuts (just compare him to Diggs and Beasley)—and isn’t fast. (Also, bear in mind that Davis’s stats this year were skewed by two deep Barkley bombs in the finale vs. Miami in garbage time.) Davis is good at contested catches and jump balls, which is good, but remember that Daboll’s scheme is predicated on throwing windows to open guys, not contested throws.

Having said all of this, I don’t expect Brown back. The Bills are cap strapped, and they have make some hard choices. And I won’t be surprised if they draft a speed guy in the third round or so. Also, Brown can go elsewhere and on some teams will be the best receiver available (ie, Jax, NE). 
 

 

 

So you're going to basically throw out 5 years worth of stats to base it all on one and half seasons of data here in Buffalo. Wow this may be the best example I've ever seen of cherry picking data.  Every data point that 's not to your liking you excuse away.  My point too wasn't to say Browns catch percentage wasn't very good, but more to state there just aren't more opportunities in the offense for more passes thrown or completed.

 

Yeah I'll agree Brown was likely hampered with deep balls from Jackson, but Allen is far from elite with throwing deep balls too.  He improved tremendously in the 20 to 25 yard passes, but still struggled with true deep 40+ yard passes.  Admittedly a low percent are even thrown much less completed.

 

Well at least we agree on one thing, likely he won't be back.

[dave mcbride]

15 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So you're going to basically throw out 5 years worth of stats to base it all on one and half seasons of data here in Buffalo. Wow this may be the best example I've ever seen of cherry picking data.  Every data point that 's not to your liking you excuse away.  My point too wasn't to say Browns catch percentage wasn't very good, but more to state there just aren't more opportunities in the offense for more passes thrown or completed.

 

Yeah I'll agree Brown was likely hampered with deep balls from Jackson, but Allen is far from elite with throwing deep balls too.  He improved tremendously in the 20 to 25 yard passes, but still struggled with true deep 40+ yard passes.  Admittedly a low percent are even thrown much less completed.

 

Well at least we agree on one thing, likely he won't be back.

Oh please. In the Bills system—i.e., the one he is playing in NOW—he catches the ball at a 63 percent rate. Also, I suggest you look at the deep throw rates in Arians offenses. They are off the charts, and he was their bomb guy for Palmer. Context actually matters.

 

Also, while I absolutely agree with you Allen’s bomb accuracy issues, on more conventional deep throws (ie, the 25 yard throw on a rope), he is elite. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Oh please. In the Bills system—i.e., the one he is playing in NOW—he catches the ball at a 63 percent rate. Also, I suggest you look at the deep throw rates in Arians offenses. They are off the charts, and he was their bomb guy for Palmer. Context actually matters.

 

The Bills system he's playing in now is a far cry from the 2019 Bills system.  No Diggs who replaced Jones and Foster as the #2.

 

So agree context does matter, makes it easy to cherry pick.

[T master]

16 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

A healthy Kenny Stills in 21 will easily outperform John Brown’s 2020. Thank you for the career year 2019 John Brown.  Critical for Josh’s development. 

 

Not to mention that they have Isiah Hodgins coming in next year and I've heard said he could be better than Davis . He was having a good training camp before he got injured and put on IR . 

 

The Bills WR room is no longer in need of players they are there and even good players get released it will be sad to see Smoke go but that's the NFL ! 

[Nextmanup]

He's an easy upgrade given his inability to remain healthy, especially combined with his high salary.

 

He's one of the more obvious cap-inspired cuts waiting to happen IMO.

 

 

[Rubes]

For a team that is up against the cap and needs $$$ to upgrade both of the lines, it's not hard to imagine this coming. I love the guy, but as Yolo said, he's on the wrong side of 30, has had considerable injuries, and he costs a lot. Restructuring might be an option, but less likely for a guy his age.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Time to move on.  Thanks JB! 

[John from Riverside]

16 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Of course he’s gone, been saying it for months now. For the fans clamoring to keep him, that my friends is none other than an emotional response. Business wise, Gabe Davis is more than ready to take over. Draft another one RDs 1-3. Move on. 
 

 

Gabe Davis doesn’t give you what smoke does on the field he may very well be cut but Gabe Davis does not have the speed to give you what John Brown does hopefully we have a plan for that

[Alphadawg7]

Let’s look at the key factors: 

 

1 - Browns season can’t be fairly judge by the stats sheet, he battled injuries and as a result all of our guys in Diggs, Cole, and Davis had career high years making up for his absence.  And when he got back, those guys were already in rhythm with Josh and the offense.  He is a lot better player for this team than what the stat sheet would say.
 

2 - Davis had an impressive rookie debut and there is reason to have optimism of him starting opposite Diggs.  That being said, we also don’t really know if him or Brown would make the bigger impact opposite Diggs over a full season.

 

3 - Bills will need to look at ways to get some cap relief this season to make some moves to make upgrades necessary to take the next step and knock the Chiefs off.  And Brown does offer them an opportunity to do that and at a position we have 2 studs at (Diggs is stud outside and Cole is stud in slot) and Davis who looks like he is going to be a good WR too.  
 

4 - In 2019 Brown stayed healthy mostly and in 2020 his injury history reared its self again.  At 31, the odds of getting hurt aren’t going down, so his cap hit is an even bigger risk next year as that’s a lot of money on a team with a tight cap hit to be sitting on the sidelines if he struggles with injuries. 
 

For me, looking at the key factors, I do see it as a real possibility they could cut Brown for cap reasons, but it’s also not a lock either.  Brown and Diggs together is something we didn’t get to see enough of with Brown slowed by injuries.  
 

I could see Beane restructuring Brown as much as I can see them making him a cap casualty.  And if they offered him a chance to stay on a lesser deal, I have a feeling Brown would be quite interested in staying here with Josh and a chance to challenge for a Super Bowl.

 

Brown > Stills:  So I hope they find a way to keep him.  But I also have confidence in Davis, so I won’t panic if they had to cut him for cap reasons.

[Success]

We probably have seen his last game in a Bills uniform, but who knows.

 

I love what he did for the team. One of the cogs in the transition from "drought years" to true contender.  He was always dangerous when healthy, and I'm sure a headache for opposing DC's.

 

[Beast]

Honestly, this would be a smart cut and it has nothing to do with John Brown as a player. What I do know is that the offense went on quite a roll when Brown was out so why not save some money and draft or let a cheaper option like Stills get in the rotation?

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I get last years WR class was very deep, but relying on a 6th round draft pick who's established nothing in this league to be a 4th or 5th WR on a potential Super Bowl team is not a good move.

 

If they release Brown I hope and suspect they'll find a way to adequately replace their #2 WR.... not with Gabe Davis or Hodgins. 

 

They didn't seem to have a problem replacing him after the Cardinals game where he went down. In fact, the offense was on fire and they didn't lose a game.

[Aussie Joe]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

As long as he is replaced adequately and they don't just throw Gabe Davis in there to take his spot.

 

So how would you “ adequately “ replace him? Use pick 30? High price FA? 

[DCOrange]

18 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Speculation, not really anything substantive.

I mean he literally said “was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season” and I get that’s a reflection of his stats... but quoting it as his fantasy numbers just seems kind of... simple.

 

I’ll admit I haven’t really been much of a Buscaglia fan. He has a big base because of his work on local tv and now on the athletic...

 

but he almost seems kind of PFF’y.

”I found this stat and since this stat exists it means this player is good/bad, no matter what other stats you show me or film I see”. 

 

 

Not sure if anyone pointed it out and it doesn’t matter much anyways, but the blurb you’re referring to is from Rotoworld which puts everything in the context of fantasy. They were just providing fantasy analysis based on Joe’s assertion that Brown is gone. 

[aristocrat]

Any free agents looking to pad their stats for a year to get a new contract?

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

18 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Why isn't he talking about the possible trade value? I really think John Brown has a potential trade value at 8 mil per year for a burner wide receiver who can...in the right system... catch 70 balls. This guy is not garbage, and he could always do a new deal. Lets also talk about restructuring.

 

 I don't think he's neccesarily a cut. 

This. Wouldn't the best solution be to keep him but restructure and potentially lower his salary/cap hit to $4-5 million? I think Brown still has 'it', just couldn't stay healthy this year. With a restructure, Brown stays in Buffalo where he's well-liked and doesn't have to sort through a depressed FA market and the Bills save $3 million or so. I like Davis a lot, but I don't think he's ready to be the #2 WR just yet. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Let’s look at the key factors: 

 

1 - Browns season can’t be fairly judge by the stats sheet, he battled injuries and as a result all of our guys in Diggs, Cole, and Davis had career high years making up for his absence.  And when he got back, those guys were already in rhythm with Josh and the offense.  He is a lot better player for this team than what the stat sheet would say.
 

2 - Davis had an impressive rookie debut and there is reason to have optimism of him starting opposite Diggs.  That being said, we also don’t really know if him or Brown would make the bigger impact opposite Diggs over a full season.

 

3 - Bills will need to look at ways to get some cap relief this season to make some moves to make upgrades necessary to take the next step and knock the Chiefs off.  And Brown does offer them an opportunity to do that and at a position we have 2 studs at (Diggs is stud outside and Cole is stud in slot) and Davis who looks like he is going to be a good WR too.  
 

4 - In 2019 Brown stayed healthy mostly and in 2020 his injury history reared its self again.  At 31, the odds of getting hurt aren’t going down, so his cap hit is an even bigger risk next year as that’s a lot of money on a team with a tight cap hit to be sitting on the sidelines if he struggles with injuries. 
 

For me, looking at the key factors, I do see it as a real possibility they could cut Brown for cap reasons, but it’s also not a lock either.  Brown and Diggs together is something we didn’t get to see enough of with Brown slowed by injuries.  
 

I could see Beane restructuring Brown as much as I can see them making him a cap casualty.  And if they offered him a chance to stay on a lesser deal, I have a feeling Brown would be quite interested in staying here with Josh and a chance to challenge for a Super Bowl.

 

Brown > Stills:  So I hope they find a way to keep him.  But I also have confidence in Davis, so I won’t panic if they had to cut him for cap reasons.

 

Really good post.   A few adds:

-People keep wanting to plug Davis in for Brown.  They aren't the same player.  Brown (healthy) is faster.  Posted a 4.34 40 time.  At 5'11 178, he also struggles to get open against jams and aggressive press-man coverage (read: holding).  It's not that Gabe Davis is a slug, but 4.54 significantly slower.  On the other hand, as he gains savvy on his route running, his 6'2 and 210 lbs should make him harder to neutralize.

-A lot depends upon the Bills training staff assessment of Brown's injuries this year.  Once a guy has one injury and tries to play through it, injuries can propagate. Do they think it was kind of a freak thing and he'll come back and be healthy next year?  Or do they see it as likely to propegate given his age?  How do they see the risk?

-People also keep wanting to plug Stills in for Brown.  I think Beane had that idea and that' why we saw a 3 week Practice Squad Edition.  The question is: how does Stills see himself?  His last contract was paying him $8M/yr - similar to Brown's $$.  It's not a forgone conclusion that he's gonna sign a bargain basement deal, nor that he'll be fit to carry Brown's jock in our system as a receiver if he does.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

So you're going to basically throw out 5 years worth of stats to base it all on one and half seasons of data here in Buffalo.

 

What would you say to someone who suggested that Mario Addison will be a great pass rusher for us next year because in Carolina, he had 6 straight years of double digit QB Hits and 4 straight years of >=9 sacks?

 

Things someone might respond:

-he's playing next to different people in Buffalo

-he's playing in a somewhat different system now

-he's older and may be starting to fade

 

There are lots of reasons to look at data and consider some stats more or less relevant to the present day.  "Cherry picking" is typically used to describe looking at a bunch of stats for the same time period and choosing the ones which support one's case while ignoring those that don't, without a coherent argument as to why those stats are less relevant.

 

In the case of a WR playing in a given offensive system with a specific QB, there's a case to be made that the more relevant stats are those generated in that system with that QB, not the stats from 3 or more years ago with a different QB in a different system

[Doc]

He's likely right.  Age, cap number/savings and a guy in-house (Stills) points to a divorce between the two.

[cba fan]

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

He's likely right.  Age, cap number/savings and a guy in-house (Stills) points to a divorce between the two.

Stills is no longer on the team and is a FA now. I would like to see him signed though.