Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Really how can you tell, Brown hardly played?  In fact could easily argue the offense looked best the last third or so of the season, Exactly when Brown was out completely.

 

If he just picked the top 10 salaries, then where was White, Diggs, and Dawson, plus he did say to keep Hughes and Morse who are also on the top ten.  What he did was went down the list of players who have large salaries and pretty big cap savings, and under performed in 2020 for what they are paid.

 

Second point first, before you jump on what I wrote, perhaps you could read it?  "He basically just went down a list of top-10 Bills players salaries and picked all the players who weren't just renegotiated to be cut, plus Lee Smith."  Where was White and Diggs, hello, we just renegotiated their contracts this season?

 

I'm not sure where Dawson comes in - Dawson Knox is on a rookie contract.

 

What's your definition of "hardly played"?  Brown played in Weeks 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10 and 17.  As I said "Several here commented that our offense was less effective without Brown in there"; it's not my argument, so I'm not going to defend or support it much, but 9 games is substantial playing time.  Certainly  if Beane and McDermott want more speed, cutting Brown to make room for Davis is probably not that thing unless Brown is hampered.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Speculation, not really anything substantive.

I mean he literally said “was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season” and I get that’s a reflection of his stats... but quoting it as his fantasy numbers just seems kind of... simple.

 

 

 

Yup. A prediction. Certainly one that's very possible, but other things could happen. They could re-negotiate. Might even keep him and make other cuts instead. 

 

Poor headline.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Why isn't he talking about the possible trade value? I really think John Brown has a potential trade value at 8 mil per year for a burner wide receiver who can...in the right system... catch 70 balls. This guy is not garbage, and he could always do a new deal. Lets also talk about restructuring.

 

 I don't think he's neccesarily a cut. 

 

 

This isn't the year you want to be trying to trade away guys with a big contract. There's very little money out there assuming the new cap is what they're predicting.

 

And there will be a lot of WRs hitting free agency and realizing that at least for one year they're not going to get near what their value would ordinarily be.

 

People have said that they could re-negotiate downwards and then trade him. IMO if Brown does re-negotiate, he'd want some kind of guarantee that there'd be no trade, or that he had approval. He wouldn't negotiate down so he could then be traded to a four-win team, especially if the re-negotiation includes an extension. Being cut would be much better for Brown in that case.

 

5 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Speculation, not really anything substantive.

I mean he literally said “was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season” and I get that’s a reflection of his stats... but quoting it as his fantasy numbers just seems kind of... simple.

 

I’ll admit I haven’t really been much of a Buscaglia fan. He has a big base because of his work on local tv and now on the athletic...

 

but he almost seems kind of PFF’y.

”I found this stat and since this stat exists it means this player is good/bad, no matter what other stats you show me or film I see”. 

 

 

 

Yes, speculation.

 

And disagree with Joe all you want, but whatever else you want to say about him, you can't reasonably say he only goes on stats. The guy is a hard-core film-watcher and thoughtfully analyzes it. 

 

But again, you're right, this was only speculation.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Thurman#1

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Joe B has got a gut feeling about something 

 

No inside knowledge or something he heard apparently, just he has looked up Spotrac to  find out his cap hit like we all have..

He had nothing else to write about.  I have no idea what McD and Daboll are thinking much less Beane.  Could they want him to renegotiate his contract, could they want to cut him, or do they acknowledge he was more banged up than he let on, so they give his late season performance a pass?  I don’t know and neither does Joey B.  If he sourced it with someone at OBD, then there might be something to the report.

 

[BillMafia716ix]

I think they can bring Smoke back on a restructured deal. He played the majority of the year hurt. Who’s the deep threat on the roster if they cut smoke? McKenzie is also a FA

[Big Blitz]

I'm ready for Gabe Davis szn but I'll be much more comfortable making a run to the Super Bowl with a #2 like Brown, with Davis slowly gaining more and more snaps as the year goes on.  If Davis was coming in to year 3 I'd feel more confident about him taking the WR2 position, but not coming in to his sophomore season with another pre season of Covid workouts on the horizon.  I want more security.  

 

Gotta have good WR depth.  And if Brown can provide that on a restructured contract then that works for me.   

Edited February 6, 2021 by Big Blitz

[Doc Brown]

I think it depends on where the salary cap lands.  They’ll pry find a way to keep him if it’s closer to 190 million than 175 million.  
 

Having that speed threat stretches a secondary opens things up for Beasley, Diggs, Knox, etc. underneath.  He also has a really good rapport with Allen and is a refined route runner.  
 

I would be uncomfortable with Davis taking the #2 slot.  You’re likely not going to upgrade from the TE so having the same wr crew with that depth that got you to 15-4 is essential.  

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

9 hours ago, DJB said:

https://theathletic.com/2365170/

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/701/john-brown (for those without the Athletic but want to see a short blurb)

 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia said John Brown likely won't be back with the Bills in 2021. 

 

 

Brown, 31 in April, would be a $9.53 million cap hit for a team that will struggle to stay under the league's salary cap. Buffalo would save more than $7 million if they release the veteran wideout this offseason. He was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season, averaging 3.6 receptions per game for 45.3 yards and three touchdowns in one of the NFL's pass heaviest offenses. Brown's departure would pave the way for Gabriel Davis to become an every-down outside receiver after an impressive rookie campaign in which he averaged 17.1 yards per catch on 62 targets. Davis would make for an intriguing pick in best ball leagues in a Josh Allen-led offense. 

What kind of stupid stat pretzel is 17.1 yards per catch on 62 targets??

 

so if he made 10 catches for 171 yards on 62 targets....

 

I know he was better than that, but you've got to be lit to draw a conclusion by  putting those 2 stats together. 

[Dkollidas]

8 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Maybe...but from Buffalo's standpoint can we have even 5 million tied up in a WR 4 in Brown's current role? Especially with large dollars to a KR/WR In Roberts, and McKenzie needing to be replaced via the draft or FA. Not to mention all the other needs...and Diggs and Allen new contracts looming.

 

I hate to bring this up, because Roberts was so clutch during most of the year, but ghosted in the playoffs, and in fact played terrible in the Colts game. It may still be worthwhile to explore the John Brown/ Roberts/ Mckenzie Role being replaced by one dude. Not crazy to say a Kaderius Toney kind of guy could come in and be that.

 

 

I think that’s a valid point.

I also don’t think it’s crazy to wonder if Toney would still be available at 30. I think by draft day he’d require a trade up. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

On 2/5/2021 at 6:14 PM, NI Bills Fan said:

Joe Marino also mentioned he thought the Bills might well move on from Brown in his podcast (Locked on Bills) earlier this week.

 

 

I like Joe Marino, he does a good job of taking the emotions out of things and also reading different indicators. I know during the season Marino was adamant that Brown needed to stay. I do believe another wide receiver is needed to fill Browns role. 
Beasley is the slot and possession receiver

Davis is more of a down the field threat, he needs to work on his coming back to the ball and contested catches. Davis has good hands and great foot work. 
Diggs is the number one who can do it all. 
This is where we need someone else like Brown. Brown is good and flashes great at times. 
This offense needs 4 receivers for it to really work to it’s full potential. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by atlbillsfan1975

[Saxum]

13 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

A healthy Kenny Stills in 21 will easily outperform John Brown’s 2020. Thank you for the career year 2019 John Brown.  Critical for Josh’s development. 

 

Kenny Stills is more speculation than Joe B.  He had a terrible season with Texans  He was targeted 19 times with 10 games with 0 starts.  For 2019 he had a season Bills fans would be critical of. 

 

 

I think it is more likely John Brown will take a pay cut with money capable of being earned back with incentives.  It is what Beane has done in past.

[Ray Stonada]

About Kenny Stills, his best two seasons were 2016 and 2017, when he had 42 catches for 726 yards and 9 TDs, and 58 for 847 and 6TDs. The last three years he caught 37, 40, and 11 balls.

 

John Brown has two 1000 yard seasons. In his last full season, 2019, he caught 72 for 1060 and 6 TDs.

 

There's no reason to think Stills would be a better player. He's 4-5 years out from his best years which don't even match Brown's much more recent best year.

[mjd1001]

14 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Of course he’s gone, been saying it for months now. For the fans clamoring to keep him, that my friends is none other than an emotional response. Business wise, Gabe Davis is more than ready to take over. Draft another one RDs 1-3. Move on. 

I agree. If this team wasn't against the cap with some tough financial decisions, I think it would be a 'no-brainer' that he would stay.  But that isn't the case.

 

When you are tight with money and have to let some players go, the best way to do that is not look at the skill of that player in a vacuum.....but look at how much of a drop-off your replacement will be.  Brown may still be good and valuable, but if there isn't that big of a drop off in who will replace him, those are the moves you make.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Second point first, before you jump on what I wrote, perhaps you could read it?  "He basically just went down a list of top-10 Bills players salaries and picked all the players who weren't just renegotiated to be cut, plus Lee Smith."  Where was White and Diggs, hello, we just renegotiated their contracts this season?

 

I'm not sure where Dawson comes in - Dawson Knox is on a rookie contract.

 

What's your definition of "hardly played"?  Brown played in Weeks 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10 and 17.  As I said "Several here commented that our offense was less effective without Brown in there"; it's not my argument, so I'm not going to defend or support it much, but 9 games is substantial playing time.  Certainly  if Beane and McDermott want more speed, cutting Brown to make room for Davis is probably not that thing unless Brown is hampered.

 

 

 

Yeah he played 9 games, but only about 4 of them he looked half way decent, weeks 1,2,9, & 10.  If the Bills were about $70 mil under the cap, great keep him, or if he's willing to take a pay cut down to about $3 mil then keep him, but doubt he's worth keeping at anything close to $8 mil unless the Bills determine that the 2020 roster is good enough to win the super Bowl next season with and minus upcoming FA.  To improve the team, can't see how they can keep him and improve elsewhere.  Yes they said they want/need more speed, but not so certain they were referring to the WR class.  They need speed a D-line,  LB and RB.

 

The problem is very likely when they signed Brown to a contract, the assumption was in 2020 with a deep WR class we'll draft a true #1.  Likely and hopefully within 1 to 2 seasons at most the rookie will become the clear #1, Brown will be an overpaid #2, but that's OK as our #1 is on a rookie contract. Once they traded for Diggs, that all changed and Brown is now making too much money when you factor in the production they get from the rest of the team at the WR position.

 

Football doesn't use the WAR concept, but if they did, he'd look pretty bad!

 

[dave mcbride]

15 hours ago, DJB said:

https://theathletic.com/2365170/

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/701/john-brown (for those without the Athletic but want to see a short blurb)

 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia said John Brown likely won't be back with the Bills in 2021. 

 

 

Brown, 31 in April, would be a $9.53 million cap hit for a team that will struggle to stay under the league's salary cap. Buffalo would save more than $7 million if they release the veteran wideout this offseason. He was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season, averaging 3.6 receptions per game for 45.3 yards and three touchdowns in one of the NFL's pass heaviest offenses. Brown's departure would pave the way for Gabriel Davis to become an every-down outside receiver after an impressive rookie campaign in which he averaged 17.1 yards per catch on 62 targets. Davis would make for an intriguing pick in best ball leagues in a Josh Allen-led offense. 

These stats are HIGHLY misleading. Brown essentially played in only 8 games and had 34 catches for 458 yards. Extrapolated to 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs. He hasn’t been injury prone in his career, so it’s not a good idea to assume he’ll be hampered by injury again next year.

9 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yeah he played 9 games, but only about 4 of them he looked half way decent, weeks 1,2,9, & 10.  If the Bills were about $70 mil under the cap, great keep him, or if he's willing to take a pay cut down to about $3 mil then keep him, but doubt he's worth keeping at anything close to $8 mil unless the Bills determine that the 2020 roster is good enough to win the super Bowl next season with and minus upcoming FA.  To improve the team, can't see how they can keep him and improve elsewhere.  Yes they said they want/need more speed, but not so certain they were referring to the WR class.  They need speed a D-line,  LB and RB.

 

The problem is very likely when they signed Brown to a contract, the assumption was in 2020 with a deep WR class we'll draft a true #1.  Likely and hopefully within 1 to 2 seasons at most the rookie will become the clear #1, Brown will be an overpaid #2, but that's OK as our #1 is on a rookie contract. Once they traded for Diggs, that all changed and Brown is now making too much money when you factor in the production they get from the rest of the team at the WR position.

 

Football doesn't use the WAR concept, but if they did, he'd look pretty bad!

 

He got hurt in the first half of the Rams game and again in the Cardinals game (after catching 6 balls for 72 yards), so he really played 8 full games. He also didn’t play in the second half of the finale.

[Hebert19]

Having to replace brown means yet another hole.  Covid could again limit offseason so continuity is king again.  We already need LB, DE, TE, CB, RB at a minimum.   Would prefer not to add WR to that list.  

 

Restructure brown...

Draft or sign TE

find some speed at RB 

 

And roll the dice you did enough to beat KC on offense. 

34 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I agree. If this team wasn't against the cap with some tough financial decisions, I think it would be a 'no-brainer' that he would stay.  But that isn't the case.

 

When you are tight with money and have to let some players go, the best way to do that is not look at the skill of that player in a vacuum.....but look at how much of a drop-off your replacement will be.  Brown may still be good and valuable, but if there isn't that big of a drop off in who will replace him, those are the moves you make.

We need all the weapons we can get if we want to get over the hump not less. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

These stats are HIGHLY misleading. Brown essentially played in only 8 games and had 34 catches for 458 yards. Extrapolated to 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs. He hasn’t been injury prone in his career, so it’s not a good idea to assume he’ll be hampered by injury again next year.

He got hurt in the first half of the Rams game and again in the Cardinals game (after catching 6 balls for 72 yards), so he really played 8 full games. He also didn’t play in the second half of the finale.

 

So do you think they should bring him back? And at $8 mil??

 

The problem with your extrapolation exercise is no guarantee those numbers work out.  Allen completed 69% of his passes and threw 572 passes tied for 6th most.  Where do these extra 34 completions to Brown come from?  Likely by reducing the number of catches by Diggs, Beasley, and Davis. 

 

Over his career Brown has caught 53% of passes he was targeted (less than Davis BTW) so to catch 34 more balls, he'd need to be targeted around 65 times.  Do you want Allen to attempt 65 more passes, or again someone else, likely Davis who would be targeted much less and who is making about 10% of the salary Brown is making.  If anything could see them passing less and running slightly more next season.

 

Could they benefit from Browns speed, assuming he still has it, sure; Do they need his additional production, not really.

[without a drought]

15 hours ago, Worstcaseontario said:

I think john takes a home town discount

So, he's going to sign with the dolphins at a bargain rate?

[Mr. WEO]

He's lost his step and was used as a check down late in the season.  Not much of a factor.  No need to keep him.  Can be replaced in the draft (essentially was this year anyway).

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So do you think they should bring him back? And at $8 mil??

 

The problem with your extrapolation exercise is no guarantee those numbers work out.  Allen completed 69% of his passes and threw 572 passes tied for 6th most.  Where do these extra 34 completions to Brown come from?  Likely by reducing the number of catches by Diggs, Beasley, and Davis. 

 

Over his career Brown has caught 53% of passes he was targeted (less than Davis BTW) so to catch 34 more balls, he'd need to be targeted around 65 times.  Do you want Allen to attempt 65 more passes, or again someone else, likely Davis who would be targeted much less and who is making about 10% of the salary Brown is making.  If anything could see them passing less and running slightly more next season.

 

Could they benefit from Browns speed, assuming he still has it, sure; Do they need his additional production, not really.

First off, while with the Bills he has averaged a 63 percent catch rate, so your numbers don’t make sense to me. Secondly, deep  threats who get tossed bombs ALWAYS have lower catch rates than guys who catch short throws, and Bruce Arians pushes the ball deep more often than any other offensive coach in the league. Also, his catch rate plummeted when Lamar Jackson replaced Flacco, a good deep ball thrower (see the 2018 game logs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02/gamelog/). This is what accounts for his lifetime catch rate and nothing else. For comparison, look at RB catch rates; they’re usually around 75 percent plus. But RBs don’t take the top off of a defense and force the safeties to play deep. Brown is a currently better player than Davis (who I like; don’t get me wrong), who can’t really move his hips fluidly—which limits him coming out of cuts (just compare him to Diggs and Beasley)—and isn’t fast. (Also, bear in mind that Davis’s stats this year were skewed by two deep Barkley bombs in the finale vs. Miami in garbage time.) Davis is good at contested catches and jump balls, which is good, but remember that Daboll’s scheme is predicated on throwing windows to open guys, not contested throws.

Having said all of this, I don’t expect Brown back. The Bills are cap strapped, and they have make some hard choices. And I won’t be surprised if they draft a speed guy in the third round or so. Also, Brown can go elsewhere and on some teams will be the best receiver available (ie, Jax, NE).