Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[DJB]

https://theathletic.com/2365170/

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/701/john-brown (for those without the Athletic but want to see a short blurb)

 

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia said John Brown likely won't be back with the Bills in 2021. 

 

 

Brown, 31 in April, would be a $9.53 million cap hit for a team that will struggle to stay under the league's salary cap. Buffalo would save more than $7 million if they release the veteran wideout this offseason. He was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season, averaging 3.6 receptions per game for 45.3 yards and three touchdowns in one of the NFL's pass heaviest offenses. Brown's departure would pave the way for Gabriel Davis to become an every-down outside receiver after an impressive rookie campaign in which he averaged 17.1 yards per catch on 62 targets. Davis would make for an intriguing pick in best ball leagues in a Josh Allen-led offense. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by DJB

[Charles Romes]

A healthy Kenny Stills in 21 will easily outperform John Brown’s 2020. Thank you for the career year 2019 John Brown.  Critical for Josh’s development. 

[Dkollidas]

Speculation, not really anything substantive.

I mean he literally said “was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season” and I get that’s a reflection of his stats... but quoting it as his fantasy numbers just seems kind of... simple.

 

I’ll admit I haven’t really been much of a Buscaglia fan. He has a big base because of his work on local tv and now on the athletic...

 

but he almost seems kind of PFF’y.

”I found this stat and since this stat exists it means this player is good/bad, no matter what other stats you show me or film I see”. 

 

 

[DJB]

13 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

Speculation, not really anything substantive.

I mean he literally said “was a fantasy non-factor for much of the 2020 season” and I get that’s a reflection of his stats... but quoting it as his fantasy numbers just seems kind of... simple.

 

I’ll admit I haven’t really been much of a Buscaglia fan. He has a big base because of his work on local tv and now on the athletic...

 

but he almost seems kind of PFF’y.

”I found this stat and since this stat exists it means this player is good/bad, no matter what other stats you show me or film I see”. 

 

 

 

I agree its totally speculation and likely wishful thinking on Joe's part. Once he makes a decision on a player he has a hard time changing his mind no matter what the information tells us..

[JohnNord]

It’s all Joe B’s speculation.  It’s not like he’s citing info from sources.  With that being said, he probably right 

[Worstcaseontario]

I think john takes a home town discount

[Fr. Jerk]

They might want to reconsider. His touchdown dance is pretty darn dope, ya dig?

[NI Bills Fan]

Joe Marino also mentioned he thought the Bills might well move on from Brown in his podcast (Locked on Bills) earlier this week.

 

 

[RichRiderBills]

Why isn't he talking about the possible trade value? I really think John Brown has a potential trade value at 8 mil per year for a burner wide receiver who can...in the right system... catch 70 balls. This guy is not garbage, and he could always do a new deal. Lets also talk about restructuring.

 

 I don't think he's neccesarily a cut. 

[ghostwriter]

Of course he’s gone, been saying it for months now. For the fans clamoring to keep him, that my friends is none other than an emotional response. Business wise, Gabe Davis is more than ready to take over. Draft another one RDs 1-3. Move on. 

[thenorthremembers]

Will Fuller or Curtis Samuel come on down.

[Rico]

17 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

A healthy Kenny Stills in 21 will easily outperform John Brown’s 2020. Thank you for the career year 2019 John Brown.  Critical for Josh’s development. 

Is Stills still with the program? I thought I saw that him & Freeman (among others on the practice squad) were gone after the season.

[Aussie Joe]

Joe B has got a gut feeling about something 

 

No inside knowledge or something he heard apparently, just he has looked up Spotrac to  find out his cap hit like we all have..

[947]

11 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Why isn't he talking about the possible trade value? I really think John Brown has a potential trade value at 8 mil per year for a burner wide receiver who can...in the right system... catch 70 balls. This guy is not garbage, and he could always do a new deal. Lets also talk about restructuring.

 

 I don't think he's neccesarily a cut. 

Brown has almost no trade value. It's not just the Bills who know he's not worth a $9.53M cap hit, every team does, and nobody is taking that on. If a team wants him, they'll wait to see if he gets cut, then offer less than half of that amount.

[Don Otreply]

I hope folks understand that make believe football  grading has no bearing on coaching and FO decision making, pretty darn lame inclusion to the reasons players are kept or cut by a team. 

 

Go Bills!!! 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I think the title would be better if it included something like "Joe B Roster Projection" or "Joe B Speculates"

 

We all can see that John Brown has a big cap hit in a tight cap year, but it's just Joe's speculation at this point that he won't be back vs. a comment one of the Bills FO or someone close to John Brown has made.  It's also possible the Bills may ask him to re-structure.

 

RE: Joe's perception "developing internal replacement in Gabriel Davis are all point toward another direction".  Gabe Davis isn't exactly a slug with a 40-time of 4.54, but he doesn't have Brown's 4.34 speed to take the top off a defense.  Several here commented that our offense was less effective without Brown in there.

 

Of course, if Brown is injured and doesn't have it either 🤷‍♂️ he doesn't add that aspect either.

 

Joe B calls it that both Vernon Butler AND Quinton Jefferson will be gone, and I don't see that. He basically just went down a list of top-10 Bills players salaries and picked all the players who weren't just renegotiated to be cut, plus Lee Smith.

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

I don’t think you need to be a Rhodes Scholar to say he won’t be back at his current contracted amount...

 

Its certainly possible he is cut, but I think something like a $3m reduction might also be on the table. I can’t see any other team that will offer better than $4-5m in 2021, and at least if he stays healthy he can get some good numbers in the Bills offense to sign a new deal elsewhere in 2022..

 

I’m sure their medical assessment of him will come into play as well... does he have chronic injuries or can he get back to 2019 John Brown?

 

 

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Will Fuller or Curtis Samuel come on down.

Spotrac says Fullers market value is 16.7 mill a year.  Samuel 12.4 mill

 

i could only see us doling out that kind of cash it it were a one year deal and I doubt they’d want a 1 year deal. 
 

back to the OP, I’m glad that we are going to save 7 mill by cutting him.  Love the guy, but his availability lessens his value as did his inability to get open vs the chiefs. 
 

I’m not a fan of letting him go and not replacing him with another capable weapon.  Maybe they plan on:

-Diggs

-Davis

-Beasley 

-resign Mckenzie for 2-3 mill per and have him as the 4th

-hope Hodgins takes a step or two this offseason and have him compete with a draftee.  
-Also letting Robert’s go and having Mckenzie as the returner.

 

I’m not a fan of this, but would be happy with as long as we could upgrade our OL, RB and run game.  That’s the keep for me offseason.

 

our offense needs to evolve and become multidimensional.  As long as we can do that, we’ll have a chance to win the super bowl

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I don’t think you need to be a Rhodes Scholar to say he won’t be back at his current contracted amount...

 

Its certainly possible he is cut, but I think something like a $3m reduction might also be on the table. I can’t see any other team that will offer better than $4-5m in 2021, and at least if he stays healthy he can get some good numbers in the Bills offense to sign a new deal elsewhere in 2022..

 

I’m sure their medical assessment of him will come into play as well... does he have chronic injuries or can he get back to 2019 John Brown?

 

I think the x-factor in this is Kenny Stills.  I think we brought him in for a 3 week audition of his work habits and how he "meshed" with the WR room.

If we really liked that, we probably made him a contract offer.  He probably wants a bigger contract offer.  But if he takes it, his speed could make Brown expendable.

[wppete]

I don’t see them cutting Brown. It’s not a bad contract and when healthy John Brown is a great #2 or #3 and I think he is a bigtime locker room presence.