The Great Tremaine Edmunds Debate

[4merper4mer]

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Only if you can get value in return...the return has to be enticing enough (ie I would be cool with two 2nd round picks, or a bottom 1st rounder if we can get it).

 

Only foundational pieces, like Josh and Tre, are off limits...everyone else should be fair game...TE has not earned the title of foundational player to me....and if memory serves, we spent a 1st and 3rd rounder on him- so it would be wise to try and recoup some of that, if possible (if we are not planning on resigning him), so that it’s not a total waste...just my opinion.

So who plays MLB this year.....while we’re trying to make a championship run?

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The problem with this entire thread is that people keep using an old classification for a newer defensive scheme.  McD’s defense does not use a tradItional MLB that plays right behind the line and primarily plays the run.  We play Edmunds and Milano, and they play then because they are each fast and can cover a lot of ground.  If your idea of a MLB is like a Butkus, you will never be happy with Edmunds.  He is not that guy.

 

 

Oh it's not that he just isn't good against the run...........he had a horrendous 114.3 passer rating against last year.     He was probably worse against the pass than the run.    So no, the problem with the thread has nothing to do with expecting him to be a great run defender.

[JerseyBills]

On 4/20/2021 at 1:14 PM, dave mcbride said:

The full guarantee in year five is what makes me very leery of picking up that option. He's a decent player with physical upside, but he's replaceable.  

He's 22 and already a Captain! Voted in house.

He was the starting MLB for 2 years on a top 5 D(18 and 19). 

He's not going anywhere ! He's a cornerstone piece to this team.

 

42 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Oh it's not that he just isn't good against the run...........he had a horrendous 114.3 passer rating against last year.     He was probably worse against the pass than the run.    So no, the problem with the thread has nothing to do with expecting him to be a great run defender.

But he was clearly injured for the first 8-9 games, so I feel that passer rating stat is skewed.  Once healthy, the whole D vastly improved. 

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by JerseyBills

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just saying,  I don't think it's reasonable to compare 1) a player who spent the previous season on another team playing a different schedule (Adams) 2) players who didn't take many full-game snaps last year (Klein and Milano).  Until Week 16, Cookie was only playing 20, 30, 50% of the snaps - fresh fast feet.  When Milano was on IR, Klein had a 3-game stretch of playing >90% of the snaps, but otherwise ditto - 40-50% of the snaps.

 

I also wonder if that's accepted as a great metric for meaningful LB play?  I'm not familiar with that site and couldn't instantly figure out how to make it do what I wanted, but if you look up some of the league's top MLB how do their tackles/snap compare?

I am sure it’s an imperfect metric, but I think it give a more complete picture of Edmunds (and other players) when added to the other stats.  I looked at this link for all LBs with at least 20 snaps per game.  That’s all LBs, not just MLBs.  

 

One has 13%, four have 11%, eight have 10%, eight have 9% and Edmunds is among a group of 30 with 8%.  He’s 40th on the list (assuming that matters) and that the list is ordered by the unrounded percentage.  I don’t think that’s egregiously low and there might be mitigating factors - injury, no true NT to protect him, etc.   But even so it is a lot lower than I’d like for a guy who  is on track for a huge contract. 

The stat I’d love to see is one that shows how far downfield his tackles are.  LBs who effectively and quickly fill their gaps can have about the same number of tackles as ones that don’t but WHERE the tackles happen can be far different.  I can’t find it though. 

 

So we are left using our eyes and sites like PFF to make our judgements.  I wish my eyes told me all good things about him, but they don’t.  And PFF doesn’t help.  They are harder on him than I am.  They have him a 41.2 overall grade in 2020, which ranks him 74th of 83 LBs.  His previous years are better but not really good.  Their rankings aren’t perfect, but they aren’t THAT far off.

 

So we will have some information about what the Bills think of him in the next few weeks.  I doubt they draft anyone to take his place, but maybe they take a day 3 LB for depth and insurance.  The real question is whether or not they pick up his 5th year option.  In any event he has at least this season to step up and show what he can do.  We can speculate but we are going to have that to judge him by before this all gets resolved. 

[BADOLBILZ]

22 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

 

But he was clearly injured for the first 8-9 games, so I feel that passer rating stat is skewed.  Once healthy, the whole D vastly improved. 

 

  

 

The shoulder excuse plays for tackling..........though he injured it blowing a tackle in the first place.........but it doesn't really excuse the results against the pass.    Teams just started taking advantage of his lack of instincts and the fact that he just didn't make plays on the ball in the air in his first two seasons.    In 3 years in the NFL he has proven that the worst thing that can happen when you throw at him is the ball ends up falling incomplete.

[JerseyBills]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

  

 

The shoulder excuse plays for tackling..........though he injured it blowing a tackle in the first place.........but it doesn't really excuse the results against the pass.    Teams just started taking advantage of his lack of instincts and the fact that he just didn't make plays on the ball in the air in his first two seasons.    In 3 years in the NFL he has proven that the worst thing that can happen when you throw at him is the ball ends up falling incomplete.

I mean how do you know it didn't effect that part of his game? Could have easily effected his acceleration , speed and tenacity.  

All I'm saying is the D was top 5 in the 2nd half of the year and I'm convinced Edmunds health played a big factor in that. Yes, it could be a coincidence but I doubt it. 

 

And honestly,  who cares what we think? His teammates clearly respect him and his ability as he earned that C on his jersey at such a young age and only in year 3. That's pretty rare for non QBs. I feel things like that , things that don't show up on the stat sheet should be talked about as well.  I'd be shocked if we don't extend him.

Edited April 21, 2021 by JerseyBills

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I am sure it’s an imperfect metric, but I think it give a more complete picture of Edmunds (and other players) when added to the other stats.  I looked at this link for all LBs with at least 20 snaps per game.  That’s all LBs, not just MLBs.  

 

One has 13%, four have 11%, eight have 10%, eight have 9% and Edmunds is among a group of 30 with 8%.  He’s 40th on the list (assuming that matters) and that the list is ordered by the unrounded percentage.  I don’t think that’s egregiously low and there might be mitigating factors - injury, no true NT to protect him, etc.   But even so it is a lot lower than I’d like for a guy who  is on track for a huge contract.

 

So thank you very much, and I find that list very helpful.

 

One approach, I think, is to say "who are the 5 best middle linebackers in the league right now"?

Probably we all have a bit different list, but Bobby Wagner, LaVonte David, Demario Davis, Deion Jones, maybe Darius Leonard, come to mind.

So when I look at them, I see 7, 8, 7, 7, and 10 tackles/snap.

 

So it kind of looks to me like Tremaine Edmunds, with 8 tackles/snap, is right in line with some pretty fine players 🤷‍♂️

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So thank you very much, and I find that list very helpful.

 

One approach, I think, is to say "who are the 5 best middle linebackers in the league right now"?

Probably we all have a bit different list, but Bobby Wagner, LaVonte David, Demario Davis, Deion Jones, maybe Darius Leonard, come to mind.

So when I look at them, I see 7, 8, 7, 7, and 10 tackles/snap.

 

So it kind of looks to me like Tremaine Edmunds, with 8 tackles/snap, is right in line with some pretty fine players 🤷‍♂️

That’s a fair way to look at it too. 

[BADOLBILZ]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So thank you very much, and I find that list very helpful.

 

One approach, I think, is to say "who are the 5 best middle linebackers in the league right now"?

Probably we all have a bit different list, but Bobby Wagner, LaVonte David, Demario Davis, Deion Jones, maybe Darius Leonard, come to mind.

So when I look at them, I see 7, 8, 7, 7, and 10 tackles/snap.

 

So it kind of looks to me like Tremaine Edmunds, with 8 tackles/snap, is right in line with some pretty fine players 🤷‍♂️

 

Stop me if you've heard this before:

 

Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles playing the same position for McDermott in 2017.

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Stop me if you've heard this before:

 

Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles playing the same position for McDermott in 2017.

 

 

 

Yes and the immediate answer is the Bills knew that was not good enough and moved on from Brown immediately.

 

Why should this be different.  If they were not at all happy with Edmunds - wouldn’t they of looked to switch it up and move him around to OLB or something?  Wouldn’t they look for the veteran replacement and find a different spot for him - if he is as bad as people say.

 

The pat answer is no - the Bills FO has pride and doesn’t want to look bad because he was a high draft pick, but they were not afraid to move and replace Cody Ford on the OLine - even bringing in a veteran replacement, they moved on from Zay Jones another high pick, other picks like Ray Ray McCloud were cut - so it appears the bills staff recognizes failure to produce what they want.  Even so far as drafting Moss after drafting Singletary or bringing in Hollister to help Knox.

 

The facts as we have it right now is that the Bills started Edmunds in year 1 at MLB and he had struggles and issues, but got better as the year went on.  They put him back in the middle in year 2 and he had his best year and was a ProBowl alternate.  Year 1 and 2 he was above average in pass defense including some Ints and TEs struggled mightily against the defense including no TDs in his first year.  The Bills put him back in the middle in year 3 and he was an outright ProBowl selection at the end of the year.  Another fact is that he struggles when DL get their hands on him - he can’t get away and make plays.
 

What are opinions and thoughts seem to be that: Last year he struggled in coverage and against the run.  We also know he was injured, but we will never know exactly how bad, but he missed a game and it seemed to affect him for several others.  There are opinions that he is late and makes a lot of bad run fill reads and makes many tackles down field.  The prevailing opinion, and maybe it is 100% correct, is that he never makes a big or important play. 

 

What we have seen from the Bills is that they must feel he is at least adequate at the job they are asking him to do.  3 years and they have not worked to replace him, bench him, or take him off the field.  He plays just about the highest percentage of snaps on the defense of any player game after game - so they must not consider him to much of a liability.  The Bills do seem to have qualms about what his value is because they have not outright picked up the option and very little has been said about an extension.  
 

Again the proof will be in the action - do they draft a guy like Collins to fill the MLB and move Edmunds around?  Do they not pick up his option after the draft?  Do the Bills tell us they are going to let him play out the season and we will decide his fate after the season?  Do they give Klein more early snaps in the middle and just bring in Edmunds on passing downs?  Does his number and percentage of snaps drop significantly?  These will all tell us what they think.  Right now every indication is that the Bills are fine with him as they have done nothing that limits his time on the field - through 3 FA periods and 2 drafts.  They also did not indicate the option was off the table - just that they were waiting until after the draft - which could indicate something or could be a sign of the Bills working on some long term deals that might give the flexibility to use the option.

[Arm of Harm]

According to Edmunds' critics, he's bad at making reads, bad at shedding blockers, bad at tackling, takes bad angles, is bad in coverage, and doesn't make big plays.

 

According to Edmunds' supporters he's an athletic freak who does a great job of covering a lot of ground, and whose problems are mostly caused by the hole at the 1 tech position, lack of pass rush, the defensive scheme, youth, or the injured shoulder. 

 

There are some areas where I agree with his critics, others were I agree with his supporters. If I were in Beane's place, I wouldn't see him as being worth the 5th year option money, but I'd still like to keep him on the roster for the next few years. Best to wait until you've found an upgrade before parting ways with him. And if he improves, or if you find yourself wanting to use draft resources on some other position more than you want to use them on the next MLB, there's nothing wrong with having him stay on as a starter for a number of years--as long as you don't overpay!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

The pat answer is no - the Bills FO has pride and doesn’t want to look bad because he was a high draft pick, but they were not afraid to move and replace Cody Ford on the OLine - even bringing in a veteran replacement, they moved on from Zay Jones another high pick, other picks like Ray Ray McCloud were cut - so it appears the bills staff recognizes failure to produce what they want.  Even so far as drafting Moss after drafting Singletary or bringing in Hollister to help compete with Knox.

 

(....)

 

What we have seen from the Bills is that they must feel he is at least adequate at the job they are asking him to do.  3 years and they have not worked to replace him, bench him, or take him off the field.  He plays just about the highest percentage of snaps on the defense of any player game after game - so they must not consider him to much of a liability.  The Bills do seem to have qualms about what his value is because they have not outright picked up the option and very little has been said about an extension. 

 

Interesting points.  A small nit corrected above. 

 

I don't think we can draw conclusions about "have not outright picked up the option", because options are not required to be picked up until May 3rd after the draft.  It's widely believed the Bills will pick up Josh Allen's option, but they haven't yet.

 

As far as any extension of Edmunds, I could be wrong but I thought Beane was asked about that in his post-season presser (or maybe on one of the shows) and said that they wanted to work out Allen's contract first.  He mentioned the option during this week's presser, saying that if they can't work out a long term deal it might be difficult for the team to be locked into two 5th year options if the cap is as he expects.

 

24 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

Again the proof will be in the action - do they draft a guy like Collins to fill the MLB and move Edmunds around?  Do they not pick up his option after the draft?  Do the Bills tell us they are going to let him play out the season and we will decide his fate after the season?  Do they give Klein more early snaps in the middle and just bring in Edmunds on passing downs?  Does his number and percentage of snaps drop significantly?  These will all tell us what they think.  Right now every indication is that the Bills are fine with him as they have done nothing that limits his time on the field - through 3 FA periods and 2 drafts.  They also did not indicate the option was off the table - just that they were waiting until after the draft - which could indicate something or could be a sign of the Bills working on some long term deals that might give the flexibility to use the option.

 

Again, good points.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Stop me if you've heard this before:

 

Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles playing the same position for McDermott in 2017.

 

 

 

I thought we stopped using tackles to quantify a player's production like a decade ago.  That's still a thing?

 

I guess people still do that.  Without ever considering where on the field, the down and distance, scheme, et al.

 

Edmunds, if he wants a nice contract, is gonna need to get in line well behind Josh soon.  And it's pretty likely that Josh's contract will drive down their ability to add another high priced player if that's what Edmunds thinks he is.  At least Beane acknowledged the other day that Josh's contract will influence who they re-sign.  

 

But tackles as a metric?  Yeah...

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting points.  A small nit corrected above. 

 

I don't think we can draw conclusions about "have not outright picked up the option", because options are not required to be picked up until May 3rd after the draft.  It's widely believed the Bills will pick up Josh Allen's option, but they haven't yet.

 

As far as any extension of Edmunds, I could be wrong but I thought Beane was asked about that in his post-season presser (or maybe on one of the shows) and said that they wanted to work out Allen's contract first.  He mentioned the option during this week's presser, saying that if they can't work out a long term deal it might be difficult for the team to be locked into two 5th year options if the cap is as he expects.

 

 

Again, good points.

 

I totally agree - I also expect them to pick up Allen’s option either way because his option will be 10-15 million less per than than his final contract most likely - so I think that is a cheap value to add a year to any extension.

 

I think the Bills hoped to get him settled and then work on Edmunds, but after the most recent press conference- you are correct he made it sound like the 2 5th year options might be to much.  Therefore - (and I am only trying to think about this logically) - IF they want to keep Edmunds and they believe the 5th year options are to much, but they are definitely picking up Allen’s - to me logically maybe the order has had changed (or they are working on them simultaneously).
 

Maybe they feel 12-15 million is to much for Edmunds - so they look to forgo the option and get him on a deal like Milano’s with money up front so he gets paid, but an annual salary that is acceptable next year with the expected shrunken CAP - that expands in 2023 when there is more space in play.  

 

If Beane is truly worried about the CAP next season and feels the 5th year option on Edmunds will be tough to squeeze in - then the franchise tag at +2.2 million (or more) will also be difficult - the only 3rd option to keep him around is an immediate extension.  What we as fans do not know is what discussion has already taken place and what framework is set.  
 

Does Beane know what Edmunds is looking for and can it get done?  Does Beane know that Edmunds price tag is outside what he wants and therefore they are really looking at LB with the 1st round pick and then trading Edmunds?  Does Beane feel it is ok to take a risk and let the season play out with Edmunds as an impending FA - knowing he could get a deal done like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano - on the cusp of FA (especially with the tag still available)?

 

The options are crazy - we just have limited knowledge of what the Bills plans are and what value they have assigned Edmunds (and he assigns himself). 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

If Beane is truly worried about the CAP next season and feels the 5th year option on Edmunds will be tough to squeeze in - then the franchise tag at +2.2 million (or more) will also be difficult - the only 3rd option to keep him around is an immediate extension.  What we as fans do not know is what discussion has already taken place and what framework is set. 

 

Just to this point....what I think would be difficult for the Bills to squeeze in would be Allen + Edmund's 5th year option. $35M guaranteed.
 

I think if the Bills exercise Allen's 5th year option THEN get a deal done this summer, they could probably manage franchise tagging Edmunds next year if they feel he merits that.  It would be less than Allen's 5th year option assuming they structure his contract in a way that the biggest hits come down the road.  But maybe my calculus is wrong.

I agree with your point that we fans just don't know enough about how the Bills value Edmunds, how he values himself, and so forth.

 

I suppose I object to the idea of drafting an "Edmunds replacement" and moving on because I feel that draft - let walk - draft to fill holes is how the old Bills operated, and it limits improvement.    I know many here feel just about anyone at MLB would be an improvement, but I tend to feel that's not realistic.  Edmunds isn't Bobby Wagner or Lavonte David but he isn't chopped liver, either.

 

[Rochesterfan]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just to this point....what I think would be difficult for the Bills to squeeze in would be Allen + Edmund's 5th year option. $35M guaranteed.
 

I think if the Bills exercise Allen's 5th year option THEN get a deal done this summer, they could probably manage franchise tagging Edmunds next year if they feel he merits that.  It would be less than Allen's 5th year option assuming they structure his contract in a way that the biggest hits come down the road.  But maybe my calculus is wrong.

 

 

 

Maybe, but my understanding is if they pick up Allen’s 5th year option - that is worth 23 million next season.  If then then extend him - the benefit is that they can actually spread some of the signing bonus into next year (most likely increasing his cap hit for next year, but lessening the cap hit going forward).  I do not believe they can lessen his cap hit next year - the option is the minimum.
 

At that point if they try to franchise tag Edmunds - his hit is 15 million (assuming it stays the same) - therefore by that logic the 2 5th year options would be 35 million, while a franchise tag (15), 5th year for JA (23), and a prorated 1 year of JA’s signing bonus (? - maybe 10 million if he got 50 million signing on a 4 year deal) equals a minimum of 38 million + what ever prorated signing bonus is added to next year.
 

If Beane is struggling to get 35 in - then there would be almost no way to use the franchise tag as all that does is increase the cost.  
 

The benefits of having the tag for Edmunds is no commitment for 2022 - so you are not locked in and you are safe from injury.  I just do not see the tag as a viable option (more of a threat) if they are worried about the 2 5th year options as the tag is more.  
 

Maybe I’m wrong and there is a way to lower JA’s cap hit next year with exercising the option - I just don’t think so.  I think all they can do is use the option cost and any prorated signing bonus to help out in future years.  The best use would be toexercise the option and get him signed this year and extend the signing bonus out over 2 extra years, but that will make it even tighter this year and next.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[Coach Tuesday]

TSW had better get to the bottom of this before the option deadline...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

Maybe, but my understanding is if they pick up Allen’s 5th year option - that is worth 23 million next season.  If then then extend him - the benefit is that they can actually spread some of the signing bonus into next year (most likely increasing his cap hit for next year, but lessening the cap hit going forward).  I do not believe they can lessen his cap hit next year - the option is the minimum.

(...)

Maybe I’m wrong and there is a way to lower JA’s cap hit next year with exercising the option - I just don’t think so.  I think all they can do is use the option cost and any prorated signing bonus to help out in future years.  The best use would be toexercise the option and get him signed this year and extend the signing bonus out over 2 extra years, but that will make it even tighter this year and next.

 

Well, I don't think that's right.  I think a 5th year option is just extending the current rookie contract.  Like any contract, the player can renegotiate and sign a new contract with different terms that then supercedes the previous contract.

 

Let's look at Tre White.  Last May, the Bills picked up his 5th year option for 2021 at a cost of $10M

Then he signed a new deal last summer.

Let's look at his current cap hit: $6.72M is clearly less than $10M, and his $990M salary is clearly less than the $10M salary of the 5th year option.

 

OK let's do another example: Myles Garrett.  The Browns picked up his 5th year option for 2021 last May slating him to earn $15M in 2021.

His current cap hit per Spotrac is $9.4M, with a salary of $1M, which is clearly less than $15M.

 

Basically  I believe you to be mistaken on this point.

[BarleyNY]

Beane’s comments about it being tough to squeeze in both fifth year options seems like face-saving for Edmunds to me. That’s a pretty good strategy if they aren’t picking it up and still want to retain him at a lesser contract.

 

Just to clarify, the two options at the same time (see below) thing didn’t just sneak up on Beane.  He has known what was coming for a long time.  He sure knew when he resigned Milano.  One of the reasons I didn’t think he’d do that was Edmunds’ upcoming contract and I didn’t think he’d want to tie up $25M-$30M a year in two LBs.  It’s possible that the decision was made to keep Milano and either not keep Edmunds or try to retain him at a lesser contract.  We shall see.

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by BarleyNY

[BuffaloRebound]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

Beane’s comments about it being tough to squeeze in both fifth year options seems like face-saving for Edmunds to me. That’s a pretty good strategy if they aren’t picking it up and still want to retain him at a lesser contract.

 

Just to clarify, the two options at the same time (see below) thing didn’t just sneak up on Beane.  He has known what was coming for a long time.  
 

 

This.  Picking up Josh’s 5th year option is a no brainer and should’ve been done yesterday.  Seems bizarre that Beane is lumping the 2 decisions together for some reason.