The Great Tremaine Edmunds Debate

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Come on.  If tackles is a deceiving stat, that "late to arrive" is total bs.  You can't have it both ways.  

 

If the argument is that he takes bad angles, he goes to the wrong gaps, he arrives late on plays, and he has bad instincts, how is it possible that he's in on all these tackles.   They aren't phantom tackles.   He was actually there for the tackle.  

 

Why don't other Bills have all those tackles?   Maybe they're the problem.  

 

On every team your SS and MLB normally lead in team tackles. DL are covered by OL, DBs have coverage assignments, FS is your deep insurance.

 

Those positions have the most off the ball flexibilty and opportunities to make or get in on tackles.

 

Once again, what many notice is Edmunds missing his gaps or simply whiffing on tackles on plays coming at him.

 

What Edmund does possess is great sideline to sideline speed and the ability to chase down just about anyone, but that usually means we gave up yards.

 

I am not the only one that sees this and I have zero against the kid. Just not there on investing pro-bowl money on a long-term deal.

 

Edited April 16, 2021 by WideNine

[JohnNord]

If I’m Brandon Beane, I probably pick up the 5th year option.  But like I said in my original post, the excuses need to stop.  He’s been very inconsistent and regressed this season.  In year 4 he needs to pick it up or else the team will be looking for a new MLB in 2023

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Come on.  If tackles is a deceiving stat, that "late to arrive" is total bs.  You can't have it both ways.  

 

If the argument is that he takes bad angles, he goes to the wrong gaps, he arrives late on plays, and he has bad instincts, how is it possible that he's in on all these tackles.   They aren't phantom tackles.   He was actually there for the tackle.  

 

Why don't other Bills have all those tackles?   Maybe they're the problem.  

FWIW I googled “tackles per snap” and got this.

Edmunds has a tackle per snap rate of 8%, which is 5th on the team.  Milano leads with 10%.  Adams, Klein and Poyer are ahead of him too.  It’s not terrible, but for a MLB it’s not really that good either.  Edmunds played 91% of the defensive snaps so he’s a workhorse with a lot of opportunity to accumulate tackles.

 

I don’t see many here saying he’s awful, just that he hasn’t come close to earning the lucrative second contract expected from the team that drafted him 16th overall.  He’s got this season to prove himself or I expect the Bills to move on.  I really don’t see him being worth $12.7M for his fifth year option either.  That would be fully guaranteed and the decision is due by 5/3. 

[JaCrispy]

26 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

If I’m Brandon Beane, I probably pick up the 5th year option.  But like I said in my original post, the excuses need to stop.  He’s been very inconsistent and regressed this season.  In year 4 he needs to pick it up or else the team will be looking for a new MLB in 2023

2022...if the Bills pick up his 5th year option and Edmunds doesn’t produce, at least, close to elite, they should trade him next offseason for the best offer, so we don’t let him walk for nothing...I would be ok with two 2nd round picks...

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

FWIW I googled “tackles per snap” and got this.

Edmunds has a tackle per snap rate of 8%, which is 5th on the team.  Milano leads with 10%.  Adams, Klein and Poyer are ahead of him too.  It’s not terrible, but for a MLB it’s not really that good either.  Edmunds played 91% of the defensive snaps so he’s a workhorse with a lot of opportunity to accumulate tackles.

 

I don’t see many here saying he’s awful, just that he hasn’t come close to earning the lucrative second contract expected from the team that drafted him 16th overall.  He’s got this season to prove himself or I expect the Bills to move on.  I really don’t see him being worth $12.7M for his fifth year option either.  That would be fully guaranteed and the decision is due by 5/3. 

Well, the Bills numbers aren't that telling.  Only Poyer and Milano ahead of him, of guys who play a lot.   But I fiddled with it and looked at tackles per snap across the league for all linebackers with more than 40 snaps per game.   Edmunds was someplace around 25 or 30 on the list.    Now, on a list sorted that way, you'd expect a good MLB to be someplace a good deal higher than that.  So, that's some interesting data to put on the table.   

 

Still, I'm not convinced.   I mean, I'm convinced, I've always been convinced that what to do about Edmunds is an open question, and it isn't a given that the Bills exercise the fifth year, let alone write a big check beyond that.   It will depend on how McDermott values him.   As I've said, I think McDermott values him much more highly than we do, because McDermott sees things we don't.  I don't know that; but I think it's true.   I think it's true that Edmunds occupies much more space in the short middle of the Bills zone than almost any other middle linebacker.   I think that he covers the run and scrambling QBs from side to side much better than most middle linebackers.   I think McDermott sees him as a guy who causes offenses a lot of problems.   

 

But then I look at that tackles per snap list, the league-wide linebacker list, and I gotta wonder.   Thanks. 

10 minutes ago, RunJoshRun said:

Come On Shaw!  You know guys like Preston Brown and Paul Posluszny also led the Bills in tackles and they were below average.  Edmunds should be making tackles in the spot he's playing!  Great Bills LB's from the past - Stratton, Spielman, Fletcher and Spikes - hit people with authority and were excellent on the blitz.  Edmunds runs around with his arms hanging at his sides waiting for someone to come in his direction!

The ancient history doesn't move me much.  Brown and Pos, yes, they made a lot of tackles, but those defenses funneled the run to them.   Those guys were serious liabilities in the passing game - it's clear that McD is about stopping the pass, and that's why I think he values Edmunds.   There's no question that Edmunds isn't a stud in the run D, but McDermott isn't looking for that stud - he wants a stud in the pass defense.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

If he returns to his 2019 form, this discussion will be long dead.

 

I thought he looked fantastic later half of the season. 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, RunJoshRun said:

You know Bills ancient history more than 90% of the people of this Board - which is good!   Show me any stats that show Edmunds is above average in pass coverage as a MLB?  Passes defended, intereceptions etc.  Not tackles after a catch 15 yards down the field!!

Actually, I'm old enough that I can't remember a lot of the history.   But what I meant about ancient history was that the game is different now.   I don't see a lot of point in comparing Edmunds to Mike Stratton.   Mike Stratton never, never, never could do what the Bills ask Milano to do, and they play the same position on the roster.  

 

If you've read all my posts here today, you'll see that I said that I think - I don't know, but I think - that Edmunds' value is the amount of the field that he covers.  There is no stat for passes not thrown, but I suspect that Edmunds has powerful impact in the middle of the pass defense.   The best corners usually have low passes defended and low interceptions because teams don't throw at them.   I think - but I don't know - that Edmunds has that kind of impact in the Bills pass defense.   

 

I also know that the classic Tampa 2 asks the MLB to drop into the deep middle zone as the two safeties move out to provide the deep coverage on the wide zones.   I don't think there's ever been a middle linebacker with the speed and size (except maybe Urlacher) to handle that assignment.  That skill doesn't show up in any stats.   McD likes the Tampa 2.  

 

And that's really my only point.  I think Edmunds does things on defense that are very important to McDermott.   He's doing those things right now.  Then I add to that Edmunds' work ethic and McDermott's steadfast belief that players get better year after year (until age catches up with them), and I think Beane and McDermott see a guy making a big contribution now and a guy whose contribution will grow.  

[In Summary]

Edmunds: Solid in pursuit (a runner more than a thumper).  Good tackler when he's playing an angle.  Struggles to disengage.  Plays the wrong gap too often (instincts or system based assignments?).  Averages just under 2 sacks a year (pass rush).  Averages 1 interception a year (anticipation and coverage).  Arguably being played out of position (MLB or OLB?) High character person.  Plays much better when not playing with injury (obvious).  Trending towards an expensive 5th year option.  Someone who I hope hits another gear this year.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

Number of tackles is a deceiving stat if taken alone.

 

How many tackles trailing plays?How many tackles for a loss?

 

You miss your gap, or take a bad angle, fail to shed your block, but have the recovery speed and range to chase the play down...AFTER a team makes yards or converts.

 

This is the key difference between reactive and instinctual play from that Mike position.

 

It's not that much of an enigma.

 

 

I don't entirely agree with Badol on Edmunds but his point earlier about too many of Edmunds tackles being from the side is right. So often slow to identify the right gap and hence having to recovery tackle from the side a back that has sprinted through the gap he should have been in.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

If you've read all my posts here today, you'll see that I said that I think - I don't know, but I think - that Edmunds' value is the amount of the field that he covers.  There is no stat for passes not thrown, but I suspect that Edmunds has powerful impact in the middle of the pass defense.   The best corners usually have low passes defended and low interceptions because teams don't throw at them.   I think - but I don't know - that Edmunds has that kind of impact in the Bills pass defense.   

 

In 2019 this was definitely true. Quarterbacks were forced to hold the ball because Edmunds was in the passing lane a lot. I remember watching the all22 of the Cleveland game in particular and just thinking "Edmunds is everywhere Baker wants to go with the ball". 

 

However it was less true in 2020. I am convinced teams watched Edmunds impact in 2019 on film and it was for that reason that we faced a significant uptick in play action against us in 2020. It was all about attacking Edmunds weakness.... his anticipation and negating his strength... his ability to take away passing lanes in the drop back game. Teams got Edmunds to over play the run game and then used tight ends in behind him for fun. That would be helped by better dline play but fundamentally Tremaine has to improve his play recognition and his gap discipline.

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, WideNine said:

Other than his instincts diagnosing plays, hitting the right gaps, taking the right leverage, defending passes, shedding blocks and tacking he was pretty awesome last season.

 

He is a physical freak and an enigma. The enigma is that for some games he will come out and play smart, sound, and aggressive - I will not take that away from him. He also played through a very painful injury, so I am not going to question his heart. Coaches and most fans see the player he could be, then for multi-game stretches he is a non-factor, or a liability....

 

I just don't get it, but mostly I think he just struggles with his instincts/diagnosing plays. That would explain being in poor position to beat blocks, taking the wrong gaps, the bad angles, falling for misdirection and fake moves, the late arrivals on the scene and the poor arm tackling. Players that can quickly diagnose plays look more aggressive simply because they anticipate and knock down passes or are slipping around blocks before they are setup and can get in the backfield or they help turn plays back into pursuit or blow them up before they can gain any traction.

 

Tough one - you would think after so many years playing that position for the Bills coupled with the film study that the mental part of the game would kick in for the kid.

 

 

This is exactly how I feel.

 

i just don’t get it

[ColoradoBills]

14 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

2022...if the Bills pick up his 5th year option and Edmunds doesn’t produce, at least, close to elite, they should trade him next offseason for the best offer, so we don’t let him walk for nothing...I would be ok with two 2nd round picks...

 

Yes, but even if the haul wouldn't be that great it's why picking up the 5th will most likely happen.

Fans are looking at this whole Edmunds thing a little too myopically IMO.

This coming season is an important one for TE and we just all have to be patient and wait to see what happens.

[DQW87]

I'm not sure much about how schemes played into it, but this guy missed a lot of open field tackles this past year that a middle LBer needs to make.  This includes a lot of sliding off the legs of QB's even. I don't know how much injuries played into it, but I rewatched a lot of games and could not believe how many tackles he missed.  It wasn't so much of being in the wrong gap, it was not making the play when he was in the gap.  I hate to say it, and pray I'm proven wrong, but I believe right now he needs to be replaced or moved to outside LBer.

[Nextmanup]

Edmunds should be getting ridiculous tackle counts based purely on where he plays and how he fits into the D.

 

The fact that he doesn't should signal a problem.  

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Edmunds should be getting ridiculous tackle counts based purely on where he plays and how he fits into the D.

 

The fact that he doesn't should signal a problem.  

 

 

 

Especially given how many snaps he plays.   Keuchly was often in the top 5 in McDermott's heyday in Carolina.  

 

We'll see. 

[NewEra]

Meanwhile Jordan Poyer led our team in tackles and had equal sacks, tfl and 1 more qb hit than TE

[TheFunPolice]

Just wait until we get our "block out the sun" sized DT this draft and Star comes back, hopefully bulked up and ready to occupy blockers. 

 

It's a huge part of McDermott's defense. You need the giant DT to occupy so the LBers and other DT can run wild. 

Edited April 16, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[maddenboy]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Yes, but even if the haul wouldn't be that great it's why picking up the 5th will most likely happen.

Fans are looking at this whole Edmunds thing a little too myopically IMO.

This coming season is an important one for TE and we just all have to be patient and wait to see what happens.

-We will pick up the 5th year option.  There is no point asking us to Be Patient, since we only have until the first week of May, 2021, and nothing will change until then (unless we draft his replacement.  Unlikely)

 

-We should, as a business decision, pick it up.  Because (1) its not my money, but (2) who else are we gonna spend it on next year?  Will there be 1 big free agent we neeeeeeed and will regret spending $12MM ish on the, basically, 1-year test drive?  I think not.

 

-me myself, I dont think he will work out for us.  I also think we will let him test the market after year 5, and count on him thinking this is his best spot to grow and compete for championships, and will take a home-town discount.

 

-I agree with the posters that McD is gonna ride this until the bitter end.

 

-I think that if we draft or somehow find our Big Nickel, it might free up Edmonds from pass responsibility just a little.  And less responsibility might just let him be instinctive and make plays.  If he is capable of that. 

 

-Instinct will get you to the right place at the right time.  But will he actually be a Playmaker if he actually arrives on time, or (if instinct is involved) early???

Edited April 16, 2021 by maddenboy

[ColoradoBills]

20 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

-We will pick up the 5th year option.  There is no point asking us to Be Patient until the first week of May, 2021, since nothing will change until then (unless we draft his replacement.  Unlikely)

 

My "be patient" point was not about whether or not they pick up the 5th it was on how TE will play this year.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, DQW87 said:

I'm not sure much about how schemes played into it, but this guy missed a lot of open field tackles this past year that a middle LBer needs to make.  This includes a lot of sliding off the legs of QB's even. I don't know how much injuries played into it, but I rewatched a lot of games and could not believe how many tackles he missed.  It wasn't so much of being in the wrong gap, it was not making the play when he was in the gap.  I hate to say it, and pray I'm proven wrong, but I believe right now he needs to be replaced or moved to outside LBer.

Tremaine will never have the football instincts to fulfill McD's dream of turning him into Luke Keuckly. The have until May to decide if they're going to pay him that $12.9M 5th year option. I'd prefer him outside to use his speed but I think Sean will be stubborn on this one.