The Great Tremaine Edmunds Debate

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Plus, we only see the plays when Edmunds gets beat.  We don't see the plays where Edmunds presence, where his speed and length, cause the QB to go elsewhere with the ball.  That's a huge impact on the defense that is not reflected at all in the stats.  

 

I wish I could shout the bolded part from a megaphone during any and all Tremaine Edmunds debates.

I do not think that most fans understand the overall effect Edmunds has on the pass defense, just by virtue of his height, speed, and wingspan. It's not something statistically quantifiable. Even by watching the All-22, it wouldn't be easy to discern what type of effect Edmunds has on each passing play without also knowing what the opposing QB's primary reads were, and what his thought process was as the play unfolded.

I also think -- and I have no proof of this, it's just a feeling I have -- that McDermott and Frazier will take the trade-off of Edmunds being just average against the run and in terms of physicality, so long as he can continue to affect/disrupt the passing game in the way that he usually does. 

The thing that bugs me just a little bit about Edmunds is that while he is often IN POSITION to make game-changing interceptions, he doesn't often make them. It seems like we are always seeing him JUST miss interceptions -- bobbling, double catching, seeming surprised/flustered. If he could simply turn some of those "almost interceptions" into ACTUAL interceptions and continue to work on being more physical at the point of contact, he'd ascend to "elite" status. 

 

[jletha]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The Bills defensive scheme relies upon "zone eyes" - the defenders make decisions by reading the QB's eyes.

Mahomes is the master of "Lying Eyes".  He will manipulate the defenders into making decisions based upon his eyes, then throw where they aren't.

Mahomes abused Edmunds, it was ugly. He over-pursued many times.

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, jletha said:

Mahomes abused Edmunds, it was ugly. He over-pursued many times.

Yes, he took advantage of Edmunds, but I don't think it was Edmunds fault.   The Chiefs crossed receivers in the zone that Edmunds waited for, and Mahomes waited for Edmunds to cover one of them.  When Edmunds committed, Mahomes threw the other way.   That's a scheme problem, not an Edmunds problem.  

 

One play was very clear in the replays - Kelce was crossing right to left and Edmunds had him.  Mahomes broke right, outside the pocket as if to take off running.   Edmunds followed Mahomes, which opened a passing lane to Kelce.   Mahomes completed the pass.   If Edmunds had stayed with Kelce, Mahomes was on his way up the field.  Scheme, plus a QB who can execute it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree with you on year 2. I think 2019 was comfortably his best season as a Bill. He doesn't make enough plays, I agree with.

 

 

Agreed.....almost none at all definitely falls in the range of not enough.😉

 

I also agree that they will pick up his option.    If they did not they would look pretty foolish having traded up to get him and defended ad nauseam his play in the position they moved him to 3 years ago.  Same with if they moved him outside now.    

 

At this point I think the only way to right the wrong might have to be by accident.........have Edmunds go down for 4-6 games early.........have another LB fill in and actually make plays........and then have Edmunds come back as an OLB and do the same.    

 

[BuffaloRebound]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a really good point.  Beane's drafting is on the line here - there's a lot of big draft capital invested in the defense, and it needs to perform better than it jiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

 

As for Edmunds, I'm still an Edmunds supporter, for several reasons.   

 

I agree with some of the complaints about him.   My biggest complaint is that he isn't as physical as the MLB should be.   It's the single biggest thing that makes him different from Keuchly, whom I consider to be the ideal MLB.   Keuchly is a solid, sure tackler; Edmunds still plays like he's done his job so long as he's in the place where he's supposed to be.   

 

 

This.  He’s in the right spot to make plays but doesn’t.  He’s gotta start finding that inner dawg/swagger if he wants to take next step.  He has the tools to be elite.  That’s what’s so frustrating about him.  

[ColoradoBills]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. It feels like there is a constant desire for everyone to "pick a side" on the Edmunds debate when the reality is somewhat in the middle. He took a big step rookie year to year 2, but then he took a step back last year and he was inconsistent at best. For the 16th pick of the draft "net neutral" is not really enough. He has to be making more plays than he is missing to help the defense step back up into the top 10. Ed Oliver the same. He was a little more consistent than Edmunds in 2020 but still had too many down moments where he disappeared for stretches of games. AJ I give a bit more of a pass to because he was a rook with no proper off season and trying to change his body composition at the team's request but he has to take a step in 2020 as well. All three of them need to improve. 

 

 

To add I have little hope left for Harrison Phillips after last year... maybe that's harsh but it is how I feel. Some of his performances were atrocious. 

 

I was thinking the same thing.  Edmunds is the type of player IMO with very good qualities mixed with some not so good tendencies.

It's going to be a big year for him the season.  The only debate is do they pick up the 5th year option.

I think we will see that Beane does pick it up.  I hear what some say about the Tag v 5th Year but I just don't see the tag being used.

 

His $12.7M hit next year may end up being a few million more than his actual worth (as of now) but I'm pretty sure he will have the

next 2 seasons of play with the Bills before a solid decision would be made one way or the other.  Last offseason was entirely about

Josh Allen and the passing game but I think this offseason will be a big refocus on the Defense (including the running game).  I get the

feeling that McDermott and Frazier put some new wrinkles in the D and I will see how TE plays if that happens.

 

I got no problem with 2 more years and personally I am rooting for the young man.

[Governor]

Convert him to safety.

[Mango]

It all depends on value of an extension. Edmunds is a decent MLB. Not great. Not terrible. My big thing is, between some of the Edmunds projections for an extension work ~$15M, that will have the Bills spending about $32M on Klein, Milano, and Edmunds alone. That’s right around top 5 money for LB spending in the league, and that doesn’t account for depth. 
 

I don’t know how you justify spending that much money on what has been just an OK group after you extend Allen. 
 

I don’t want to create another hole because I think Edmunds is at worst serviceable. But I don’t want to dedicate that much money to a middling LB Corp. 

 

I agree with @GunnerBill, I think McBeane are committed to the kid. But I would feel more comfortable if he signed closer to Milanos value. 

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

If it doesn't have anything to do with Mahomes, what are you knitpicking about. They got to the AFC championship game besting the Colts and Ravens in the process. The Ravens game was won by the defense. Lamar was shut down by an underachieving D-line and speed at the 2nd level. 2019 was the year we had a top 5 defense in football with Edmunds in the middle. All of a sudden Edmunds is the problem. What a tough room.

Edmunds doesn’t make plays that wins football games.  I can remember one “big time” play he has made.....in his career.  And it was on the first possession of the game.  Stopping Mostert on 4th and goal at the one on MNF this year. Then Moss fumbled the ball right back to them.  
 

He needs to be much better if we’re going to extend him. I know it won’t happen, but I’d trade him for a 2nd rd pick right now and draft Nick Bolton with the pick.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And there's another piece to this, that others have talked about.  McD is very clear that his D requires a lot of pressure on the QB from the front four.   McD doesn't want to be blitzing, because he wants Milano and Edmunds covering all the space they do.   That's why Gunner's point about Oliver and Epenesa and Philips is important.   There's three high picks on the defensive line that really need to show more than we've seen.   So far as I was concerned, the biggest difference between the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl was Tampa's ferocious pass rush, pass rush that game from the front four.   Pressure on great QBs is the only solution, and it has to be pressure generated without blitzing all the time.

 

Agreed, which is why the Bills minimal activity on DL during FA is of concern to me.

 

OTOH, I'm not so sure but what many of the FA the Bills have signed are not that much better than Addison and Hughes have shown the potential to be.  And Addison just "bet on himself" by voiding out his 2022 contract as part of the haircut the Bills asked him to take.  Butler also "bet on himself" by taking a haircut, and it's Hughes last year under contract.

 

So essentially one way to look at it is, the Bills are throwing down and saying "Stand and Deliver" to Harrison Phillips, Oliver, Butler, and Hughes, and Addison - and except for Oliver, this is a contract year audition.

 

Whether they can rise to the challenge without destroying McD/Frazier defense by free-lancing instead of buying in, TBD (to be determined)

[Eastport bills]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Edmunds doesn’t make plays that wins football games.  I can remember one “big time” play he has made.....in his career.  And it was on the first possession of the game.  Stopping Mostert on 4th and goal at the one on MNF this year. Then Moss fumbled the ball right back to them.  
 

He needs to be much better if we’re going to extend him. I know it won’t happen, but I’d trade him for a 2nd rd pick right now and draft Nick Bolton with the pick.  

You being one of the elite talent evaluators, you're confident there would be an improvement with this rookie for a team on the cusp of a championship. OK, thanks for straightening that out. Also, I would take a small position on Edmunds being retained, but what do I know.

[Governor]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Edmunds doesn’t make plays that wins football games.  I can remember one “big time” play he has made.....in his career.  And it was on the first possession of the game.  Stopping Mostert on 4th and goal at the one on MNF this year. Then Moss fumbled the ball right back to them.  
 

He needs to be much better if we’re going to extend him. I know it won’t happen, but I’d trade him for a 2nd rd pick right now and draft Nick Bolton with the pick.  

Yeah, I think we should be proactive about this. Just fix it already. Either take a 3rd or use him to move up a few spots and be done with it.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

You being one of the elite talent evaluators, you're confident there would be an improvement with this rookie for a team on the cusp of a championship. OK, thanks for straightening that out. Also, I would take a small position on Edmunds being retained, but what do I know.

We’re building a long term winner here. The biggest obstacles in building a winner are bad contracts. Edmunds 5th year option has to be decided on soon, before we know if last seasons play is who he is.  If he plays like he played last year I can’t see how Beane would think that he’s worth the money he may command just based on his age and physical traits.  The talent is evident.  No doubt. His ability to process quickly, is not.  

 

He was picked on over and over by the 2 legit passing QBs he faced in the playoffs.  I hear other says that no one can defend Kelce.  He owns almost every Lb not named Lavonte David. True.  What about Jack Doyle, Trey Burton and Mo Allie-Cox?  Edmunds is too easily manipulated by the QBs eyes.  It’s a MAJOR problem.
 

His length and speed was supposed to be his best asset, which was supposed to make him the ideal coverage LB.  instead, QBs had a QB rating of over 120 when targeting Edmunds in 2020. Over 120......targeting Edmunds.  My elite talent evaluation skills are telling me that that isn’t good.  It’s in fact, terrible.  One of the worst in the league.  Yet this is what he is supposed to be good at.  

If we could get a draft pick that would allow us to draft Nick Bolton on a 4 year contract paying him 1M a year for Edmunds, I’d sign on the dotted line right now. 
 

I hope that I’m wrong.  I bought an Edmunds jersey the day after we drafted him.  I bought an autographed jersey as well.  I had huge expectations for the kid and think that there’s still some hope that he can figure it out.....but I’d cut bait right and get something for him right now based on what I saw from him last season. 
 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We’re building a long term winner here. The biggest obstacles in building a winner are bad contracts. Edmunds 5th year option has to be decided on soon, before we know if last seasons play is who he is.  If he plays like he played last year I can’t see how Beane would think that he’s worth the money he may command just based on his age and physical traits.  The talent is evident.  No doubt. His ability to process quickly, is not.  

 

He was picked on over and over by the 2 legit passing QBs he faced in the playoffs.  I hear other says that no one can defend Kelce.  He owns almost every Lb not named Lavonte David. True.  What about Jack Doyle, Trey Burton and Mo Allie-Cox?  Edmunds is too easily manipulated by the QBs eyes.  It’s a MAJOR problem.
 

His length and speed was supposed to be his best asset, which was supposed to make him the ideal coverage LB.  instead, QBs had a QB rating of over 120 when targeting Edmunds in 2020. Over 120......targeting Edmunds.  My elite talent evaluation skills are telling me that that isn’t good.  It’s in fact, terrible.  One of the worst in the league.  Yet this is what he is supposed to be good at.  

If we could get a draft pick that would allow us to draft Nick Bolton on a 4 year contract paying him 1M a year for Edmunds, I’d sign on the dotted line right now. 
 

I hope that I’m wrong.  I bought an Edmunds jersey the day after we drafted him.  I bought an autographed jersey as well.  I had huge expectations for the kid and think that there’s still some hope that he can figure it out.....but I’d cut bait right and get something for him right now based on what I saw from him last season. 
 

 

 

 

It's a good point that bad contracts are a big obstacle to long-term success.   

 

And I clearly don't know what to do about Edmunds.   However, I do wonder why you think that Edmunds is going to get a big contract from someone if his game is fundamentally flawed by his processing speed.  I mean, maybe you're right - maybe he just can't make on-field decisions as quickly and as accurately as necessary to play the position.  But if that's so obvious, why would he get a "big contract"?  

 

One thing I learned several years ago, I think when Jairus Byrd's contract was up, was that the agents, the players, and the teams know how much players are worth.  It's become even more true over the years.   Teams don't overpay for players in free agency like they used to.  The Bills knew how much Byrd was worth, and they had the discipline to let someone overpay him if they wanted to.  Now, and for the past few years, the Clowneys and Richard Shermans and other guys with big press clippings but less than stellar recent play sit in free agency for weeks or months and eventually sign for not a ton of money.  

 

So, I think that one of three things is likely:   Edmunds is actually very valuable to this defense (despite the concerns we fans have), and the Bills will exercise the option and/or extend to keep him long-term, not exercise and let him test the market, like Shaq Lawson and Milano, and see what happens, or extend him on more of a prove-it deal, which means the Bills will be looking actively for a replacement. 

 

What I don't think is going to happen is that Edmunds is going to get a mega-contract from any other team.   If he's worth a mega-contract, the Bills will pay him.   If he isn't, no one else will.  

[Eastport bills]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We’re building a long term winner here. The biggest obstacles in building a winner are bad contracts. Edmunds 5th year option has to be decided on soon, before we know if last seasons play is who he is.  If he plays like he played last year I can’t see how Beane would think that he’s worth the money he may command just based on his age and physical traits.  The talent is evident.  No doubt. His ability to process quickly, is not.  

 

He was picked on over and over by the 2 legit passing QBs he faced in the playoffs.  I hear other says that no one can defend Kelce.  He owns almost every Lb not named Lavonte David. True.  What about Jack Doyle, Trey Burton and Mo Allie-Cox?  Edmunds is too easily manipulated by the QBs eyes.  It’s a MAJOR problem.
 

His length and speed was supposed to be his best asset, which was supposed to make him the ideal coverage LB.  instead, QBs had a QB rating of over 120 when targeting Edmunds in 2020. Over 120......targeting Edmunds.  My elite talent evaluation skills are telling me that that isn’t good.  It’s in fact, terrible.  One of the worst in the league.  Yet this is what he is supposed to be good at.  

If we could get a draft pick that would allow us to draft Nick Bolton on a 4 year contract paying him 1M a year for Edmunds, I’d sign on the dotted line right now. 
 

I hope that I’m wrong.  I bought an Edmunds jersey the day after we drafted him.  I bought an autographed jersey as well.  I had huge expectations for the kid and think that there’s still some hope that he can figure it out.....but I’d cut bait right and get something for him right now based on what I saw from him last season. 
 

 

 

 

When I see the D-line putting little pressure on quality QBs and a scheme that isolates Edmunds on underneath routes I don't take stats like that seriously. How was his performance in 19, when Phillips had 10 sacks and the Bills had a great defense. When Milano played and the D-line played good run defense, Edmunds played good enough to win 10 in a row. You want big plays that's fine, give me a mlb who can run down tailbacks and running QBs. Give me Ws. That's what you get with Tremaine. 

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We’re building a long term winner here. The biggest obstacles in building a winner are bad contracts. Edmunds 5th year option has to be decided on soon, before we know if last seasons play is who he is.  If he plays like he played last year I can’t see how Beane would think that he’s worth the money he may command just based on his age and physical traits.  The talent is evident.  No doubt. His ability to process quickly, is not.  

 

He was picked on over and over by the 2 legit passing QBs he faced in the playoffs.  I hear other says that no one can defend Kelce.  He owns almost every Lb not named Lavonte David. True.  What about Jack Doyle, Trey Burton and Mo Allie-Cox?  Edmunds is too easily manipulated by the QBs eyes.  It’s a MAJOR problem.
 

His length and speed was supposed to be his best asset, which was supposed to make him the ideal coverage LB.  instead, QBs had a QB rating of over 120 when targeting Edmunds in 2020. Over 120......targeting Edmunds.  My elite talent evaluation skills are telling me that that isn’t good.  It’s in fact, terrible.  One of the worst in the league.  Yet this is what he is supposed to be good at.  

If we could get a draft pick that would allow us to draft Nick Bolton on a 4 year contract paying him 1M a year for Edmunds, I’d sign on the dotted line right now. 
 

I hope that I’m wrong.  I bought an Edmunds jersey the day after we drafted him.  I bought an autographed jersey as well.  I had huge expectations for the kid and think that there’s still some hope that he can figure it out.....but I’d cut bait right and get something for him right now based on what I saw from him last season. 
 

 

 

 

 

True.  I will say though the 5th year option can work both ways.  In the case of Edmunds it can be thought of as one more year to come

to a long term decision.  Exercising the the 5th negates having to decide on the possibility of what you are calling a "bad contract".

 

The way I see it the only risk is that Edmunds does not play to the $12.7M 5th year contract.  So I guess that risk is what will Edmunds

true 2022 worth be?  If he gives you $7-8M in value the risk for another year of evaluation is not that great.

IMO.

[colin]

im up and down on edmunds, and i still think he'd be a better outside backer in a more traditional 43 (which we aren't gonna run, so i suppose it just doesn't matter).

 

the one thing that impresses me about edmunds, besides his truly elite athletic gifts, is that he is not up on his play one bit.  in all the interviews he's had, he's simply not happy with how he has played to this point.  he basically doesn't come off the field, and is super duper young, so i think he's set himself up to improve greatly this season coming.

 

i think this is his make or break year in buffalo.  he will right the wrongs and make the plays that he is capable of, and be consistent, or he is gonna be let go.  given the continuity on the team, i think with another goofy covid off season it could put the bills in a decent advantage situation, so my expectation is that he shows improve.

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's a good point that bad contracts are a big obstacle to long-term success.   

 

And I clearly don't know what to do about Edmunds.   However, I do wonder why you think that Edmunds is going to get a big contract from someone if his game is fundamentally flawed by his processing speed.  I mean, maybe you're right - maybe he just can't make on-field decisions as quickly and as accurately as necessary to play the position.  But if that's so obvious, why would he get a "big contract"?  

 

One thing I learned several years ago, I think when Jairus Byrd's contract was up, was that the agents, the players, and the teams know how much players are worth.  It's become even more true over the years.   Teams don't overpay for players in free agency like they used to.  The Bills knew how much Byrd was worth, and they had the discipline to let someone overpay him if they wanted to.  Now, and for the past few years, the Clowneys and Richard Shermans and other guys with big press clippings but less than stellar recent play sit in free agency for weeks or months and eventually sign for not a ton of money.  

 

So, I think that one of three things is likely:   Edmunds is actually very valuable to this defense (despite the concerns we fans have), and the Bills will exercise the option and/or extend to keep him long-term, not exercise and let him test the market, like Shaq Lawson and Milano, and see what happens, or extend him on more of a prove-it deal, which means the Bills will be looking actively for a replacement. 

 

What I don't think is going to happen is that Edmunds is going to get a mega-contract from any other team.   If he's worth a mega-contract, the Bills will pay him.   If he isn't, no one else will.  

Good post.  I share the sentiment regarding how big his contract will be.  Watching Kwon Alexander get 4years 54M had me thinking about Edmunds future contract the moment I saw it.  I was initially thinking we’d be on the hook for 16-17m a year.  Since then, he’s made 2 pro bowls (don’t ask me why other than lack of competition) and is now on one of the SB favorites.   
 

at this point, I think someone in the league would pay him 13-15M per year just based on his age and god given attributes and abilities. I think he’s worth about 7-8M, if that.  The cap will be our enemy for the next decade.  We need to make the correct decisions.  Keeping and paying a guy 13M+ that is often a detriment to the team and targeted by the opposition is the kind of move that sinks ships imo.  Not every time, but sometimes.  And sometimes is enough to make me wary.  
 

I know it won’t happen, but I’d be very happy if we could trade him for a draft pick that we could then in turn use on his replacement.  4 years of 1M per year = gold.  It’s a huge roll of the dice, for sure.  The rookie may suck.  But at least he will suck getting paid 1M as opposed to sucking (which Edmunds did much of last year, as evidenced by the QB rating when targeting him) while taking up a lot of cap space 

7 minutes ago, colin said:

im up and down on edmunds, and i still think he'd be a better outside backer in a more traditional 43 (which we aren't gonna run, so i suppose it just doesn't matter).

 

the one thing that impresses me about edmunds, besides his truly elite athletic gifts, is that he is not up on his play one bit.  in all the interviews he's had, he's simply not happy with how he has played to this point.  he basically doesn't come off the field, and is super duper young, so i think he's set himself up to improve greatly this season coming.

 

i think this is his make or break year in buffalo.  he will right the wrongs and make the plays that he is capable of, and be consistent, or he is gonna be let go.  given the continuity on the team, i think with another goofy covid off season it could put the bills in a decent advantage situation, so my expectation is that he shows improve.

I’m sure he gets his fair share of getting verbally destroyed by coaches in film session. He makes some poor decisions, and often very late decisions.  
 

I know I’ve said some harsh things about the kid, but I stand by my thoughts.  What we do with him with have a huge impact on whether or not we win a super bowl.  The QB of the D needs to be a leader.  I haven’t yet seen him become that leader.  Jordan Poyer is the Qb of our D.  I hope that changes this season.  There’s nothing I’d like more than for Edmunds to prove me wrong.  He’s a great kid and a hard worker, I have no doubt.  He just needs to be a better MLB. 

[Rocky Landing]

I haven't read through this thread, and if I did, I doubt I would read anything that would change my mind.

In my opinion, Edmunds has not reached his ceiling-- not even close. In my opinion, Edmunds will be a Bill for a long time, and in my opinion, Edmunds will eventually achieve elite status.

 

Flame away.

[John from Riverside]

The only thing I’m really disappointed in Edmonds about is given his speed I thought that he would be much better against Tight ends we are not good against tight ends on the bills as for people bad mouthing him for this and for that yes his play has been up and down but he has shown a lot of promise

Edited April 15, 2021 by John from Riverside