"First Round Picks are Over-rated": Discuss

[hjnick]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

the Rams were an example of a trade for a rookie QB.

 

when was the last time a QB like Deshaun Watson was available for a trade?  I’ll save you time.  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/amp/the_biggest_quarterback_trades_in_nfl_history/s1__28469687
 

the answer is never.  Not even close.  Why? Because no team will trade a QB as good as Deshaun Watson.  
 

I used an example of trading Josh Allen.  What amount of picks would you trade Josh Allen for?  I don’t think I’d trade him for 5 1sts and 5 2nds.  He is the reason we have a chance to win the Super Bowl.  Why would you trade that?  Just so you can use all of those picks to try and acquire a QB as good as Josh Allen and hope that you can get a few other players that pan out.  Not worth the risk imo.  It took us over 20 years to find a franchise QB.  It took Houston the entire history of their franchise to find one.

 

No team has set the market for trading an elite top 5 QB.  It hasn’t been done 

 

the jags wouldn’t take 3 1st rd picks for Lawrence imo

Thanks for the link.  Very cool. 

 

Plunkett was actually traded for 3 1st round picks.

 

There are lots of players (QBs mostly) that are 'untradeable'.  I bet nobody has called the Bills and seriously asked if Josh Allen is available.  Houston has gotten themselves in this mess because of their total mismanagement of the franchise from ownership down and I don't blame Watson for wanting to leave that dysfunctional situation.

 

The floodgates of 'other' QBs being available IMO is because the franchises looking to deal QBs are tired of them, don't think they are good enough, or saw the ludicrous price the Rams paid for Stafford and said to themselves "Hell, they got that for Stafford!!!", please take my QB too for that price."

 

BTW, if the Jets, Miami, or Atlanta called Jacksonville about the #1 pick, I bet they would listen for 3 #1 picks and only have to drop 1-3 spots AND they still get a QB. (They might throw in some 2's and 3's as well).

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by hjnick

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

A. Are you good enough to make a run?

B. Are you actually acquiring an upgrade?

 

Okay, so there are two criteria that need to be met in order for it to be a good deal. 
 

We all seem to be in agreement that Buffalo is good enough to make a run, that’s why the conversation started, people want Buffalo to make a move. Criteria A is satisfied. 
 

Then we move on the criteria B. Is any GM going to go out and intentionally acquire a downgrade when making a splash move? Generally if you’re making a move, you’re making the move because you believe the player is an upgrade. 

 

So what happens if it doesn’t work out and they turn out to not be the missing piece that everyone thought they were getting? This could happen for a variety of reasons too. So now with the benefit of hindsight you’ll judge the decision based on the circumstances that management has no control over? 
 

Seems loaded. 

[PrimeTime101]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Who are your three complete busts? Maybin, Manuel, and ... McKelvin? Leodis certainly wasn't worth the pick, but he lasted for a while and started for while. He was a good returner too. I wouldn't call him a complete bust, I guess. 

 

Spiller had one genuinely elite season, and Dareus was terrific while playing under his first contract (2011-14). Gilmore won a defensive MVP (not for us, of course), and Watkins remains a pretty good player (who we overpaid for). 

What you don't mention is that their defense has greatly improved. It was the best in the NFL this season.

next time read my content, I said who my 3 busts were but out side that the last 5 years we have done just fine.

[FireChans]

48 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Okay, so there are two criteria that need to be met in order for it to be a good deal. 
 

We all seem to be in agreement that Buffalo is good enough to make a run, that’s why the conversation started, people want Buffalo to make a move. Criteria A is satisfied. 
 

Then we move on the criteria B. Is any GM going to go out and intentionally acquire a downgrade when making a splash move? Generally if you’re making a move, you’re making the move because you believe the player is an upgrade. 

 

So what happens if it doesn’t work out and they turn out to not be the missing piece that everyone thought they were getting? This could happen for a variety of reasons too. So now with the benefit of hindsight you’ll judge the decision based on the circumstances that management has no control over? 
 

Seems loaded. 

That’s not the only option. The other option is doing “nothing.” Just keep drafting JAGs and filling holes.

 

Also, quite importantly, just because management thinks they are trading for an upgrade doesn’t mean I agree. If the Rams traded for Carson Wentz, I wouldn’t agree with the move. But because I agree Stafford is an upgrade, I do.

 

I’m not judging anything on the benefit of hindsight. I loved the Diggs trade at the time. If Diggs sucked and demanded a trade, I’d be disappointed. But that wouldn’t change that I agreed with the trade.

 

You have to accept that you can make the right decision and have things not work out. That’s gambling and that’s life.

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s not the only option. The other option is doing “nothing.” Just keep drafting JAGs and filling holes.

 

Also, quite importantly, just because management thinks they are trading for an upgrade doesn’t mean I agree. If the Rams traded for Carson Wentz, I wouldn’t agree with the move. But because I agree Stafford is an upgrade, I do.

 

I’m not judging anything on the benefit of hindsight. I loved the Diggs trade at the time. If Diggs sucked and demanded a trade, I’d be disappointed. But that wouldn’t change that I agreed with the trade.

 

You have to accept that you can make the right decision and have things not work out. That’s gambling and that’s life.

Well then yes, I agree with you on almost everything. I wasn’t quite sure of your position on certain portions, that’s why I continued to ask for clarification. 

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

next time read my content, I said who my 3 busts were but out side that the last 5 years we have done just fine.

That post does not say who the busts were. I just read it again. That's what I was responding too. If you posted that info elsewhere, I didn't think to chase it down (and nor would I ever do that).

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

We’ve had this argument too many times, so I’m going to take a different approach. 
 

What GM or organization do it better than Beane/Buffalo when it comes to not making mistakes? 
 

or

 

Which playoff organization has a better cap situation? It can’t just be pure cap space because they all have guys that are set to be FA.  I would say Indianapolis is a logical place to start, but they don’t have a QB, so idk if the overall situation is “better.” 

 

 

This is a tremendous question and probably should be explored in a thread of it's own rather than here.

 

@GunnerBill would you want to tackle where you think the Beane front office ranks in decision making compared to the current front offices around the league?

 

To get a better perspective...........remove their QB decisions.

 

Yes those are huge..........selecting Allen was why they got to a championship game............but trading the Mahomes pick to KC to defer selecting a QB to 2018 so Beane could do it in person is also why they got beat and will be favored to be beaten in matchups with KC for the foreseeable future, most likely.

 

My take is that aside from Allen, Brandon Beane and the "all star" cast of personnel people have been pretty pedestrian.

 

His results are not only skewed by the great QB but because he bought and over-paid for a quicker turnaround than he was going to get with his modest work in drafting.    The method they used to start their regime was risky.......ridding themselves of the prior regimes first and second round picks on principle dug them a roster hole that they were going to need to be efficient to dig out of.  

 

Currently Beane has one of the oldest rosters in the NFL and he's up against the cap because he paid top dollar to build up depth and special teams in the very short term.   Yes I know.......he can "get out of" deals.......but when you then ultimately end up paying $13M for one year of Mario Addison........that's not a win.

 

Maybe the development side isn't helping him out enough...........I am sure he didn't just pluck a guy like Wyatt Teller out of the locker room unannounced.........someone on the ground likely deemed him expendable as well, likely McDermott.  

 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[BuffaLoko]

21 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Well the Rams did apparently miss on their last 1st round pick.

and corrected their miss, by trading to a 1st round whiff from DET!! 😅

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, hjnick said:

Thanks for the link.  Very cool. 

 

Plunkett was actually traded for 3 1st round picks.

 

There are lots of players (QBs mostly) that are 'untradeable'.  I bet nobody has called the Bills and seriously asked if Josh Allen is available.  Houston has gotten themselves in this mess because of their total mismanagement of the franchise from ownership down and I don't blame Watson for wanting to leave that dysfunctional situation.

 

The floodgates of 'other' QBs being available IMO is because the franchises looking to deal QBs are tired of them, don't think they are good enough, or saw the ludicrous price the Rams paid for Stafford and said to themselves "Hell, they got that for Stafford!!!", please take my QB too for that price."

 

BTW, if the Jets, Miami, or Atlanta called Jacksonville about the #1 pick, I bet they would listen for 3 #1 picks and only have to drop 1-3 spots AND they still get a QB. (They might throw in some 2's and 3's as well).

 

 

It’s not about dropping 1 spot for Jax.  It’s about getting the QB many see as the best QB prospect since Peyton.  Some see him as the best Qb prospect ever.  While the guys they’d end up with (Wilson or Fields) aren’t nearly the prospects that Lawrence is.  I don’t think they’d trade that pick unless they were to get an established star qb in return + picks 

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

This is a tremendous question and probably should be explored in a thread of it's own rather than here.

 

@GunnerBill would you want to tackle where you think the Beane front office ranks in decision making compared to the current front offices around the league?

 

To get a better perspective...........remove their QB decisions.

 

Yes those are huge..........selecting Allen was why they got to a championship game............but trading the Mahomes pick to KC to defer selecting a QB to 2018 so Beane could do it in person is also why they got beat and will be favored to be beaten in matchups with KC for the foreseeable future, most likely.

 

My take is that aside from Allen, Brandon Beane and the "all star" cast of personnel people have been pretty pedestrian.

 

His results are not only skewed by the great QB but because he bought and over-paid for a quicker turnaround than he was going to get with his modest work in drafting.    The method they used to start their regime was risky.......ridding themselves of the prior regimes first and second round picks on principle dug them a roster hole that they were going to need to be efficient to dig out of.  

 

Currently Beane has one of the oldest rosters in the NFL and he's up against the cap because he paid top dollar to build up depth and special teams in the very short term.   Yes I know.......he can "get out of" deals.......but when you then ultimately end up paying $13M for one year of Mario Addison........that's not a win.

 

Maybe the development side isn't helping him out enough...........I am sure he didn't just ***** a guy like Wyatt Teller out of the locker room unannounced.........someone on the ground likely deemed him expendable as well, likely McDermott.  

 

 

 

Which playoff teams currently have better cap situations than Buffalo? 
 

And if we’re going to look at how they rank in terms of decision making it has to be centered around the last 4 years since they took over, you can’t applaud the Chiefs for ending up with Kelce when it happened 5 years before Beane and McDermott were in Buffalo and weren’t presented the opportunity to select him or not, or sign X free agent.
 

Strictly looking at their decision making the last 4 years compared to their peers. 

[hjnick]

17 hours ago, NewEra said:

It’s not about dropping 1 spot for Jax.  It’s about getting the QB many see as the best QB prospect since Peyton.  Some see him as the best Qb prospect ever.  While the guys they’d end up with (Wilson or Fields) aren’t nearly the prospects that Lawrence is.  I don’t think they’d trade that pick unless they were to get an established star qb in return + picks 

 

I don't disagree with you about Lawrence, I wouldn't trade down either.  What I was trying to say is if you REALLY are going to potentially spend SIX (6) #1 picks for Watson, why not look into trying to get Lawrence instead.

 

If you can get Lawrence, then you also get the cheap contract for 5 years with that.  OR if you love one of the 'other QB's' in this draft, trade with the Jets for the #2 pick.

 

Maybe Houston should try and trade w/ Jacksonville...?

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, hjnick said:

 

I don't disagree with you about Lawrence, I wouldn't trade down either.  What I was trying to say is if you REALLY are going to potentially spend SIX (6) #1 picks for Watson, why not look into trying to get Lawrence instead.

 

If you can get Lawrence, then you also get the cheap contract for 5 years with that.  OR if you love one of the 'other QB's' in this draft, trade with the Jets for the #2 pick.

 

Maybe Houston should try and trade w/ Jacksonville...?

It just depends who you like more and your teams cap situation.  
 

Lawrence, as great as he looks to be....has yet to prove that he’s even a decent nfl qb.  There’s still a chance that he doesn’t pan out.  Watson has proved to be one of the best QBs in the league and is about to hit his prime.  A proven commodity and he’s only 4 years only than Lawrence.  
 

regardless, Lawrence won’t be traded.  If I’m the Texans gm, Watson wouldn’t be traded either 

[hjnick]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It just depends who you like more and your teams cap situation.  
 

Lawrence, as great as he looks to be....has yet to prove that he’s even a decent nfl qb.  There’s still a chance that he doesn’t pan out.  Watson has proved to be one of the best QBs in the league and is about to hit his prime.  A proven commodity and he’s only 4 years only than Lawrence.  
 

regardless, Lawrence won’t be traded.  If I’m the Texans gm, Watson wouldn’t be traded either 

I agree with you.  I would do whatever it takes to mend the fences with Watson and keep him in Houston.

[BuffaloBill]

On 2/2/2021 at 8:56 PM, Big Turk said:

They are also destroying their cap by paying top dollar instead of paying for players on rookie contracts. It's why their cap situation is a disaster and doesn't look like it will be improving anytime soon.

 

 

You can’t separate cap from draft as both have serious impact on how well a team can do over time.  Once you have a high dollar QB you have to fill in the rest of your roster through excellent drafts and value FA’s. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

You can’t separate cap from draft as both have serious impact on how well a team can do over time.  Once you have a high dollar QB you have to fill in the rest of your roster through excellent drafts and value FA’s. 

 

The first round picks they are trading for players making multiple times what a player on a rookie contract would be making adds up when you do it as much as they do.

 

They are putting themselves in cap stress by default