Stafford to Rams!!

[BillsFan2313]

9 hours ago, Clyde Smith said:

Lions will probably fumble their draft picks with duds and busts anyway lol.

 

Actually, they hired the Rams director of college of scouting as the GM. Lions actually might be in a good spot for once. Goff, 7th pick and three 3rds. That is a good way to start

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

This is the most lopsided trade I've seen since....the Hopkins deal (ok that was only 10 months ago, but this trade is pretty darn bad). 

 

If I'm rating how good Stafford and Goff are, I'd say that Stafford is the 10th best QB in the league and Goff is closer to 15th. I think both of them are closer to being average than they are to being elite. I don't see either of these guys ever winning a superbowl (maybe they could catch fire in the playoffs like Eli Manning). 

 

The Rams are giving up 2x firsts and 1x third for a slight upgrade at QB. A soon to be 33 year old QB that has a lot of wear and tear on his body. It's insane. It's the worst QB trade since Carson Palmer 

 

 

You realise that there is an element of a salary dump at work  as well right?

 

The price the Rams are paying is inflated because Goff's guaranteed money is terrible...

 

As I said upthread... Im curious to see how Stafford goes with the Rams ( I expect them to be better), and Goff goes with the Lions ( I expect them to be worse..) but time will tell...

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

You realise that there is an element of a salary dump at work  as well right?

 

The price the Rams are paying is inflated because Goff's guaranteed money is terrible...

 

As I said upthread... Im curious to see how Stafford goes with the Rams ( I expect them to be better), and Goff goes with the Lions ( I expect them to be worse..) but time will tell...

 

 

 

I disagree that it would require draft capital from the Rams to trade Goff away. Sure, he's a bit overpaid, but I hardly think that contract is a detriment to the point that the Rams would need to pay someone to take him on.  He has the 10th highest cap hit for QB in 2021, and I said in my original post that I think he's the ~15th best QB. There's not enough of a gap there for the Rams to have to unload picks to trade him away. As far as guaranteed money goes....who cares? Unless the owner is a cheapskate I don't see how that is more important than the cap hit 

 

I agree that the Rams will be better with Stafford (but still not good enough to contend for a SB). Is it really worthwhile to trade 2x1sts+ for a guy that's a slight upgrade?

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I disagree that it would require draft capital from the Rams to trade Goff away. Sure, he's a bit overpaid, but I hardly think that contract is a detriment to the point that the Rams would need to pay someone to take him on.  He has the 10th highest cap hit for QB in 2021, and I said in my original post that I think he's the ~15th best QB. There's not enough of a gap there for the Rams to have to unload picks to trade him away. As far as guaranteed money goes....who cares? Unless the owner is a cheapskate I don't see how that is more important than the cap hit 

 

I agree that the Rams will be better with Stafford (but still not good enough to contend for a SB). Is it really worthwhile to trade 2x1sts+ for a guy that's a slight upgrade?

 

Do the Rams have a better chance of winning the SB in 2021 with Stafford ( then Goff )?

 

Vegas seems to think so as they have reduced their odds from 18/1 to 13/1...

 

There is no doubt that McVay has an ego you couldnt jump over, but he has delivered some results since he has been in the coaching role at the Rams.. I think we would all agree that he is not an idiot, however he has all his chips in now and his window for success is only 2-3 years.. 29 other teams ( at least ) arent going to win the Superbowl either in that time frame...

 

Look .. I dont have a dog in this fight so I dont really care what happens ( provided on how it might effect the BIlls) ... but I just think its interesting to see if Stafford really has been a victim of circumstances of playing at a badly coached and managed team this past 10 years and if he was in a better situation he can show us all something. more... thats what I am interested in seeing...

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So FWIW...while the overall #s are similar at a high level, there's this

Goff................................................................................................Stafford

Make of it what you will

To me, the numbers look pretty similar.  I just take issue with the knee-jerk assumption that LA just got a massive upgrade at the position.

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

To me, the numbers look pretty similar.  I just take issue with the knee-jerk assumption that LA just got a massive upgrade at the position.

Well... as you said yesterday... the Rams coach and management think they have got an upgrade.... and their jobs actually depend on it unlike as scrubs here...

[Lfod]

54 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Well... as you said yesterday... the Rams coach and management think they have got an upgrade.... and their jobs actually depend on it unlike as scrubs here...

I can only see it two ways. The Rams think they will win a SB with this trade or they just dislike Goff so much they would throw a lot of assets into moving him. 

 

I think when hindsight comes around a lot of people will know this was not a good trade. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Lfod

[Rochesterfan]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So FWIW...while the overall #s are similar at a high level, there's this

Goff................................................................................................Stafford

Make of it what you will

 

This is exactly what I was saying.  The Lions were built for attacking the deep outsides with their WRs and the intermediate middle with the TE and that was Staffords strengths.  That also leads to longer developing plays and more sacks.  It also tends to hinder the outside zone rushing attacks with quick passes off from that.

 

The Rams have a quick passing attack - lots of run/pass options with roll outs and either getting the ball to the TE or the RB to one side or hitting a crossing receiver going against the flow around 8-12 yards down field.

 

I will be very interested to see will McVay adjust his offense to try and fit what Stafford has traditionally done best.  I do not think they have the players for that as Detroit has had exceptional WRs with speed and size to attack the outside thirds of the field 15-20 yards downfield and Kupp and Woods are more crossing route type receivers.  
 

Can Stafford adjust and does he have enough mobility to consistently make run/pass option reads and quickly diagnose and make reads and throws as well as Goff did in the short areas and behind the LOS?

 

How good is the OLine really for the Rams? They scheme up protections because of play action, roll-outs, and quick read passes.  If Stafford is more of a traditional QB dropping back and holding on to the ball - ala his Detroit days - will the OL hold up or will teams knowing better where he stand be able to pressure him more than they did Goff.

 

The final piece that I think will be very interesting is where you really project these guys stats to be.  Unless Detroit revamps their offense (and I suspect they will) that is a terrible fit for Goff, but I think you will see Detroit become more of a running - short passing team.  
 

Where does Stafford go?  The Rams throw even more than Detroit, but lots of short passes for short gains.  in one less game Goff completed 30 more passes on 20 more attempts, but had less yards.  Does Staffords aggressive throws help open things up or does his decreased completion percentage have an impact.  Does the Rams rushing attack around the end zone limit his TD throws and he is closer to Goff’s 20. 
 

I think they will get a more consistent QB game over game and I think Stafford is marginally better.  I think McVay needs to adjust to Stafford and the team needs to adjust and I do not think they have the cap room or the ability to get new players - so it is going to have to meld.  
 

The biggest issue to me is the Rams did not get a ton of cap room in this deal - especially with some of Stafford’s bonuses due shortly and losing draft picks for essentially the next 3 years just hurts their ability to find cheap replacement level players.  I don’t think Stafford makes them the best team in their division, let alone the NFC, but they are top 3-4.  They got a slight improvement at a cost of 2 #1’s and a 3, but more than the cost they got older and less athletic.  
 

Tampa made that work - but brought in a boat load of new/former weapons to help Brady because of their cap space.  The Rams have to figure it out with the players they got or maybe even with less players due to the cap.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Beane asleep at the wheel again.

[Rochesterfan]

For me - if I was the GM of the Rams, I would have been working with Miami and Houston to try and move Tua to LA, Goff to Houston, and Watson to Miami.  
 

I think between Miami and LA - Houston could have gotten 3 or 4 first round picks and Tua is a better fit to McVay’s offense and you get huge Cap savings in LA to help reload.

 

Miami gets Watson and retains their own first round picks, but gives up the Houston picks.  Tua then goes to the Rams for Goff and another 1st going back for salary dump and maybe the Rams save a 1st or have to sweeten the deal.  
 

I think that would have helped all 3 teams long term and would have been a much better use of resources than the Stafford deal.

[JMF2006]

So the total draft picks the LA Rams spent on Goff were the original trade up from 15 to 1...2 firsts 2 seconds and 2 thirds.

 

To unload him cost another 2 firsts and a third

 

Total tally 4 firsts 2 seconds and 3 thirds...yikes

[colin]

well, im going to keep up my star player design crusade, and say this is a smart move for the rams.  they scheme to get super stars in as many positions as possible (important positions anyhow).  they fill in the rest as needed, and use their stars as a weapon/focal point.  i like that model, and i think our bills can make like 3 moves and have as many stars as anyone else and win our chip.

 

i think goff is actually a solid qb, but as is often said here the greatest ability is availability.  goff is physically slight, and small dings take him out, stafford is a hoss and has played at a high level while legit hurt (shout out to physically small beez, who balled on a broken leg.  he's just a different breed).

 

as hapless showed, stafford is also a legit deep ball threat, goff is simply not. 

[mannc]

40 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

For me - if I was the GM of the Rams, I would have been working with Miami and Houston to try and move Tua to LA, Goff to Houston, and Watson to Miami.  
 

I think between Miami and LA - Houston could have gotten 3 or 4 first round picks and Tua is a better fit to McVay’s offense and you get huge Cap savings in LA to help reload.

 

Miami gets Watson and retains their own first round picks, but gives up the Houston picks.  Tua then goes to the Rams for Goff and another 1st going back for salary dump and maybe the Rams save a 1st or have to sweeten the deal.  
 

I think that would have helped all 3 teams long term and would have been a much better use of resources than the Stafford deal.

With this deal, I see the Rams as having a 1-year window, and if it doesn’t work out, they may find themselves in a Houston-like situation, without a Deshaun Watson to bail them out, and Detroit may end up with a very high draft pick or two, courtesy of this trade.

 

Sure, the Rams have a very good defense, but Aaron Donald is going to be 30, they really don’t have a lot of explosive weapons on offense, and they are in a tough division that’s going to get tougher, as SF gets healthy and Kyler Murray develops in Arizona.  And of course the Rams will have very little draft capital with which to improve things.  
 

It seems to me they are putting a lot of chips in on the idea that Stafford is going to break out at age 33, even though his weapons are arguably less dangerous than what he had in Detroit this year.  With SF getting healthy, and probably improving their QB situation, it’s hard to see the Rams even winning their division, much less making a Super Bowl.  If it doesn’t pan out in 2021, I could see things going south in a hurry there.

Edited February 1, 2021 by mannc

[DCOrange]

An interesting wrinkle to this that nobody seems to be talking about: Detroit’s GM turned down a better offer from Carolina (a top 10 pick) to do his old team a favor (he was just hired away from the Rams a few weeks ago).

 

Maybe he ultimately just wanted to do Stafford a solid and was okay with the Rams package but it’s clearly worse than the #8 overall pick in this years draft. This was not a case of Detroit getting the best value they could for their asset and it just so happened to benefit the GM’s old bosses. 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

An interesting wrinkle to this that nobody seems to be talking about: Detroit’s GM turned down a better offer from Carolina (a top 10 pick) to do his old team a favor (he was just hired away from the Rams a few weeks ago).

 

Maybe he ultimately just wanted to do Stafford a solid and was okay with the Rams package but it’s clearly worse than the #8 overall pick in this years draft. This was not a case of Detroit getting the best value they could for their asset and it just so happened to benefit the GM’s old bosses. 

Or maybe having spent the last few years in the Rams organization, he thinks those first round picks from LA are going to be higher than some people think.  Or maybe he likes Goff, and what QB did Carolina have to offer?

[papazoid]

a see it as a win win

 

rams are in win now mode....stafford is an upgrade over goff. rams move a difficult contract and save $8 mil in cap. rams might still be playing if stafford was on this years team. goff was the weakest link on that team. 

 

first round picks are over valued....to me they are a salary cap slot used on a unknown risky player. rams retain the salary cap space which still can be used on a  known free agent.

 

lions are in win in a couple years mode....they may  draft a QB at #7......then trade goff away now or next season for more picks

[DCOrange]

24 minutes ago, mannc said:

Or maybe having spent the last few years in the Rams organization, he thinks those first round picks from LA are going to be higher than some people think.  Or maybe he likes Goff, and what QB did Carolina have to offer?

Theoretically Carolina could have offered Teddy. Doesn't sound like they did though. If they truly view Goff as the difference between the #8 pick in the draft and future late 1sts, Detroit hired the wrong people. Likewise if their new GM is banking on the Rams having injuries derail their next two years to make the value close. They had the #8 pick there for the taking. It would pretty much take a worst case scenario for the Rams picks to ultimately equal that (if you discount them for being future picks like NFL teams do).

 

Edit: I'm not even saying it's necessarily wrong to take a worse offer to leave on good terms with one of their best ever players. But that's the way it should be framed if journalists are being honest about it.

Edited February 1, 2021 by DCOrange

[Rochesterfan]

27 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Theoretically Carolina could have offered Teddy. Doesn't sound like they did though. If they truly view Goff as the difference between the #8 pick in the draft and future late 1sts, Detroit hired the wrong people. Likewise if their new GM is banking on the Rams having injuries derail their next two years to make the value close. They had the #8 pick there for the taking. It would pretty much take a worst case scenario for the Rams picks to ultimately equal that (if you discount them for being future picks like NFL teams do).

 

Edit: I'm not even saying it's necessarily wrong to take a worse offer to leave on good terms with one of their best ever players. But that's the way it should be framed if journalists are being honest about it.

 

I guess it depends upon what you think about the upcoming drafts.  
 

Maybe they view multiple picks going forward as better than the #8 pick this year, especially if they truly think they are 2 or 3 years away and need to revamp the entire roster.

 

This years draft with the lack of college games played and no combine and limited visits makes it much more difficult.  Maybe the Lions think the next couple of years will allow better scouting and player development than this off season.

 

Just a few thoughts on that. 
 

Now if Carolina offered the #8 and a number 1 next year and maybe Bridgewater - then maybe I think the Lions just did the Rams a favor, but the fact that the picks are next year and the year after does not bother me because I would have a longer term view in Detroit.

 

 

[djp14150]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Yeah he was.  They were so desperate for an upgrade they started a backup over him in the playoffs using the thumb injury as an excuse.

 

he was injured.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

An interesting wrinkle to this that nobody seems to be talking about: Detroit’s GM turned down a better offer from Carolina (a top 10 pick) to do his old team a favor (he was just hired away from the Rams a few weeks ago).

 

Maybe he ultimately just wanted to do Stafford a solid and was okay with the Rams package but it’s clearly worse than the #8 overall pick in this years draft. This was not a case of Detroit getting the best value they could for their asset and it just so happened to benefit the GM’s old bosses. 

I’m not sure it was just to do them a favor. He took the contract but he actually wanted Goff as part of the package. He was Director of College Scouting for the Rams and reportedly a driving force on drafting Goff. He may also see value in 2 picks over 2022-23 over one this year. based on where the lions are in their rebuild, and where the scouting challenges are this year in general let alone starting from scratch with new systems etc. 
 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by YoloinOhio