Beane says no "blockbuster" moves. Do you believe him?

[billspro]

I expect lots of good values in free agency this year. He may trade up in the draft. That’s what he does haha.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think we won't see any major moves in the draft.  

 

Beane loves having draft picks, and he doesn't need to add a superstar to the team.   He might LIKE to add a superstar - we'd all like that, but he doesn't need to do it.   So, I seriously doubt he's going to package picks to move up in the first round.  

 

However, I don't think a free agent star is out of the question.   No one knows yet where the cap will be, no one knows yet whether someone like Milano is going to leave for the best deal he can find, and no one knows yet which vets, if any, Beane would be willing to cut to create some additional cap space.  What he do know is that Beane is fearless.  Although I doubt it will happen, I won't be surprised if he makes some cap moves and signs a big-time player.  

 

If he's going after a big-time player, I think it's gotta be an offensive or defensive lineman.   That's where the Bills could use a serious upgrade: A disruptor on the defensive line or a stud offensive lineman.   If for example, it came down to writing a big check to Milano or to JJ Watt, Milano could be history.   I think Beane already quietly signaled that he thinks Milano wants more than the Bills will pay (at his press conference he talked about Milano in the same way he talked about Philips and Lawson last year), and as we all know, McDermott always says that his defense starts with pressure from the front four.  With the 30th pick in the draft, you can find a guy with Milano's physical skills, but you've got to be awfully lucky to find a disrupting pass rusher.  

 

As others have said, it's going to be very important that Beane gets a good player at the end of the first round.  

 

You read the "tea leaves" on Matt Milano the same way I did.  Of course, with the salary cap, what's unknown is what the market will offer him as a player who is considered very good, but has injury questionmarks and might not fit well in every scheme.

 

But I heard the same things you did and came to a different conclusion about the draft vs FA.  I think you did too, you're just not assembling the pieces. the same way. 

 

You said it yourself: with the 30th pick in the draft, you've got to be awfully lucky to find a disruptive pass rusher.  What do we badly need on the team?  Even people who hardly ever agree on this board see it the same way: we need a disruptive pass rusher.

 

Those guys are big-ticket FA (Beane said don't expect a big FA move).  They are also pricy and as FA, overpaid.  Beane made it clear we want to re-sign as many of our guys as we can.  Then, on WGR the next day, he was asked about the draft and said "you know me, I like to move around."

 

To me, that says if there's a disruptive pass rusher Beane thinks he can get in the draft, he's more likely to package picks and trade up than he is to break the bank to go after a FA.

 

That said, the unknown again, is the market this year.  If there are FA bargains to be had, expect Beane to go shopping.  But, there are 8 teams with >$20M in free cap space, and disruptive pass rushers are just one step down from QB in commanding the best market.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You read the "tea leaves" on Matt Milano the same way I did.  Of course, with the salary cap, what's unknown is what the market will offer him as a player who is considered very good, but has injury questionmarks and might not fit well in every scheme.

 

But I heard the same things you did and came to a different conclusion about the draft vs FA.  I think you did too, you're just not assembling the pieces. the same way. 

 

You said it yourself: with the 30th pick in the draft, you've got to be awfully lucky to find a disruptive pass rusher.  What do we badly need on the team?  Even people who hardly ever agree on this board see it the same way: we need a disruptive pass rusher.

 

Those guys are big-ticket FA (Beane said don't expect a big FA move).  They are also pricy and as FA, overpaid.  Beane made it clear we want to re-sign as many of our guys as we can.  Then, on WGR the next day, he was asked about the draft and said "you know me, I like to move around."

 

To me, that says if there's a disruptive pass rusher Beane thinks he can get in the draft, he's more likely to package picks and trade up than he is to break the bank to go after a FA.

 

That said, the unknown again, is the market this year.  If there are FA bargains to be had, expect Beane to go shopping.  But, there are 8 teams with >$20M in free cap space, and disruptive pass rushers are just one step down from QB in commanding the best market.

Thanks.  Those are all good thoughts.   As I just said responding to Thurman in the thread about whether Beane will make any big splashes, none of us knows.  

 

Good thoughts about the disruptive pass rusher.   My pipe dream is JJ Watt.   I don't think he fits in the category over-priced free agent category.   I think salary is going to be secondary for him - he's going to move for the best football environment on a championship potential team.   Something on line says he has a net worth of $50 million, which may be high, but it's probably at least $30 million.   He's a smart guy, and he understands that he's already set for life.  I'd guess that in his mind, $10 million a year on a team he really wants to be on is a better deal than getting a bigger contract from the Bengals. 

 

My problem with moving up to draft a pass rusher is that those guys are very hit-or-miss in the draft.   The highest the Bills could reasonably move, just guessing, is to 10 or 15, and you're not going to find a certifiable disruptor there.    

 

Everything has changed with the Bills, including the off-season.   The off-season now is interesting for completely different reasons.  

[somnus00]

My opinion is the biggest moves will be who we lose, not who we pick up. I think we lose Milano, Feliciano, and Roberts, and Brown. Bean is going to need a great draft this year. My vote would be for trading down and taking 3 2nd round picks. Unless someone like Micah Parsons falls to 30 (could happen due to locker room issues).

[3rdand12]

On 1/30/2021 at 2:48 PM, WhoTom said:

He said not to expect any blockbuster moves. Undoubtedly, however, if the right deal falls into his lap, he'll jump on it.

 

Beane will never tell the press what he's really planning. I'll bet he's a damn good poker player.

 

I agree. Hard to consider he would limit his options.

 But do not expect any big money spent if FA might be simpler said by him

[3rdand12]

15 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

My opinion is the biggest moves will be who we lose, not who we pick up. I think we lose Milano, Feliciano, and Roberts, and Brown. Bean is going to need a great draft this year. My vote would be for trading down and taking 3 2nd round picks. Unless someone like Micah Parsons falls to 30 (could happen due to locker room issues).

this is going to be a very interesting of season for Bills and us fans as well.

great times to be a fan !
Do Bills have enough young depth to bring up players at WR. In the secondary ?
 Needs might be DE LB TE OG. Draft well Mc Beanes
and OT if we cannot keep Williams (which we should make a strong effort. That is a big deal IMHO

 conversely ?   RB will fix itself cheaply i bet.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

I could see Beane trading for Von Miller.

 

It wouldn't be a first round pick........maybe not even a second because his team control(team option year) ends after this season and he is in the middle of some controversy(which I think will blow over).......so it might not qualify as a blockbuster but that's the kind of move that could really help change the defense in the short term. 

 

 

 

 

[Mat68]

Diggs level? No.  Someone we may not think will come to Buffalo or a player we feel isnt getting targeted?  Buffalo needs dudes.  Days 1 and 2 if the draft they need to find them.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mat68

[Boxcar]

17 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Why? 

 

Only one RB went in the first round last year. At #32 overall. And in fact over the last five drafts only 1 RB has been selected in the first round in 3 of the 5 drafts dating back to 2017.

 

I don't see a lot of teams with Running Back as a big need either. I could see the Jets or Dolphins possibly taking one just because they each have the luxury of two first round picks. So they could possibly take one with their later first round pick. Maybe the Steelers?

 

Of picks 17-32, where it would be likely a RB or two would come off the board, majority of those teams are set at RB. Jets, Dolphins and Steelers are the ones that standout. Of the five teams that pick before the Bills 25 to 29, none of them would take a RB. 

 

All that said, I'm not sure it is wise for the Bills to be taking a RB in the first round.

Someone earlier said that an Alvin Kamara type of back would be ideal for this team, and that is true, imo. Najee Harris seems to fit that mold somewhat. Josh clearly doesn't trust Singletary, so it would be nice to have a RB who can catch and run.

[Putin]

On 1/30/2021 at 3:33 PM, Success said:

Ultimately, you can't do a Diggs type of deal every offseason.

 

This offseason just feels like it needs to be methodical & focused.  Have a solid draft, and work FA to fill holes and continue to build depth instead of getting a big splash at just one position.

 

Frankly, I feel like we can stand pat at a variety of positions: WR, TE, CB and even LB.  The MAIN focus should be building the D line, followed by getting one good RB - either in FA or the draft.

 

But whatever Beane decides, I'm all in.  He has earned a great deal of trust.

 

I agree with with everything except the TE , there are 3 great TE’s in this draft I hope we can grab  one of them , or maybe a trade for one but we need a better performance out of our TE position , go ahead and add a RB to that list as well 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Putin

[somnus00]

2 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

this is going to be a very interesting of season for Bills and us fans as well.

great times to be a fan !
Do Bills have enough young depth to bring up players at WR. In the secondary ?
 Needs might be DE LB TE OG. Draft well Mc Beanes
and OT if we cannot keep Williams (which we should make a strong effort. That is a big deal IMHO

 conversely ?   RB will fix itself cheaply i bet.

It will definitely be interesting to see what Beane does.

 

As much as I love Roberts and appreciate what he provides, I think they might opt to replace him with McKenzie (who took a punt the distance a few weeks ago).

 

I think your "needs" are pretty spot on. I would add CB2 to the list. What I'd love to see is us trade down from the 30th pick and use the 3 second round picks on CB, OLB, OG.

I left Williams off of my list of cuts because I think the Bills make him the priority free agent to re-sign.

 

And yes, we need a fast RB. Those can be found in later rounds. I do not want an RB at pick 30.

[stuvian]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I could see Beane trading for Von Miller.

 

It wouldn't be a first round pick........maybe not even a second because his team control(team option year) ends after this season and he is in the middle of some controversy(which I think will blow over).......so it might not qualify as a blockbuster but that's the kind of move that could really help change the defense in the short term. 

 

 

 

 

I'd love to see it even if it seems splashy by our standards

[Success]

36 minutes ago, Putin said:

I agree with with everything except the TE , there are 3 great TE’s in this draft I hope we can grab  one of them , or maybe a trade for one but we need a better performance out of our TE position , go ahead and add a RB to that list as well 

 

I'd be okay w/ that.  I just don't see it as a big position of need - but I get that the jury is still out on Knox.

 

[Putin]

2 hours ago, Success said:

 

I'd be okay w/ that.  I just don't see it as a big position of need - but I get that the jury is still out on Knox.

 

Knox is still on his rookie contract and he’s ok for #2 TE but IMO we need a playmaker at #1 spot at least someone with reliable hands especially in the end zone, and I would be all for using our first round pick on a TE , or even a running back , look at what the Chiefs did with their 1st round pick last year ... 

 

[ndirish1978]

We need a lot of help on Defense. I could see us changing a LITTLE bit from Beane's usual MO of "sign 3-4 mid-tier players to compete for 2 positions" and instead look for 1-2 actual playmakers if the money is right. But no, I don't see us offering JJ Watt 17M per after he gets cut.

[3rdand12]

On 1/31/2021 at 6:14 PM, somnus00 said:

It will definitely be interesting to see what Beane does.

 

As much as I love Roberts and appreciate what he provides, I think they might opt to replace him with McKenzie (who took a punt the distance a few weeks ago).

 

I think your "needs" are pretty spot on. I would add CB2 to the list. What I'd love to see is us trade down from the 30th pick and use the 3 second round picks on CB, OLB, OG.

I left Williams off of my list of cuts because I think the Bills make him the priority free agent to re-sign.

 

And yes, we need a fast RB. Those can be found in later rounds. I do not want an RB at pick 30.

Thanks for the good note.

Reasonable call about McK.  Value added as he can play WR, Gadget master. Punt return and hopefully can grow into Roberts replacement in Kick returns.  ( and i am a good fan of Andre )

CB2 might come from D Jackson
 or at least  rotating him in  more. But if they see an upgrade out there that is not Josh Norman. take a hard look.
 

RBs are a dime a dozen ! I read it here 
Go Bills

I sincerely hope you are correct about Williams. He has returned to nearly elite form.

Hope McBeanes can make deal every one is pleased with. My biggest hope actually for the off season. Protect Josh l

[Mr. WEO]

On 1/31/2021 at 11:03 AM, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  Those are all good thoughts.   As I just said responding to Thurman in the thread about whether Beane will make any big splashes, none of us knows.  

 

Good thoughts about the disruptive pass rusher.   My pipe dream is JJ Watt.   I don't think he fits in the category over-priced free agent category.   I think salary is going to be secondary for him - he's going to move for the best football environment on a championship potential team.   Something on line says he has a net worth of $50 million, which may be high, but it's probably at least $30 million.   He's a smart guy, and he understands that he's already set for life.  I'd guess that in his mind, $10 million a year on a team he really wants to be on is a better deal than getting a bigger contract from the Bengals. 

 

My problem with moving up to draft a pass rusher is that those guys are very hit-or-miss in the draft.   The highest the Bills could reasonably move, just guessing, is to 10 or 15, and you're not going to find a certifiable disruptor there.    

 

Everything has changed with the Bills, including the off-season.   The off-season now is interesting for completely different reasons.  

 

 

Watt is in the twilight of his career.  In the last 2 drafts, guys like Chaisson (9 sacks as a rookie, drafted #20 in 2020) and Brian Burns and Montez Sweat (16 sacks in 2 seasons each and drafted 16 and 26 in 2019...Bills took Oliver at #9--OOF!) are there in the middle off drafts.

 

Aging big name DE/DT's are cashing checks from their new teams.  Pass.

[BigDingus]

The one thing you can damn-near count on is that he'll move up in the draft at some point.

He might stay put in round 1 & snag a good RB that falls to them, but otherwise I'd think this draft is mainly about getting some size & speed on the DL & LB groups, possibly another CB opposite of Tre.

[BobbyC81]

On 1/30/2021 at 12:05 PM, Draconator said:

Kentucky has a lake (or two). Just close your eyes, and imagine the ocean...

That reminds me of when my parents came out west for my wedding.  Took them to see the sights.  “Here”s the ocean!”

Response: “Eh, we have the lake.”