Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 32 minutes ago, Doc said: If he sits out, his price tag/value won't decrease at all. His price would be highest now, after what was easily his best career season and a lot of teams looking. He sits a year then teams will be offering less knowing that Houston would be much more desperate to unload him. His value to the Texans is maximized right now--they don't have to move him. His value to the Texans after a year of sitting out in protest will drop his value to the Texans--every interested team will adjust their offer accordingly.
BuffaloRebound Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Texans probably aren't worried about playing Watson in the conference....plus, he's not going to be around in 10-15 years. I would take the better QB and the larger number of 1sts and build my team with all that capital. Darnold's ceiling is higher than backup QB Teddy B. If he lasts that long, Bridgewater's ceiling/career may be that of Fitzy's. I’d rather have Bridgewater than Darnold if I’m the Texans. They are in complete rebuild mode. Darnold hasn’t shown anything in 3 years, and in the unlikely event he turns it around in year 4, you’re stuck with the decision of having to pay him $25m+ for 1 good year and 3 bad ones. No thanks to Darnold. Bridgewater is a good bridge QB and what that franchise will need if they deal Watson. 1
Doc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: His price would be highest now, after what was easily his best career season and a lot of teams looking. He sits a year then teams will be offering less knowing that Houston would be much more desperate to unload him. His value to the Texans is maximized right now--they don't have to move him. His value to the Texans after a year of sitting out in protest will drop his value to the Texans--every interested team will adjust their offer accordingly. If he sits out, his last season will still have been his career best. It won't change anything.
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Doc said: If he sits out, his last season will still have been his career best. It won't change anything. Of course it will. Texans aren't desperate to get rid of him right now. After a year of sitting out, they would be very desperate. That changes the offer in any transaction. 1
Doc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, Mr. WEO said: Of course it will. Texans aren't desperate to get rid of him right now. After a year of sitting out, they would be very desperate. That changes the offer in any transaction. Why would they be desperate? They're recouping the money they've paid him and again they would have had a bad record with or without him. And teams will still want him.
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said: I’d rather have Bridgewater than Darnold if I’m the Texans. They are in complete rebuild mode. Darnold hasn’t shown anything in 3 years, and in the unlikely event he turns it around in year 4, you’re stuck with the decision of having to pay him $25m+ for 1 good year and 3 bad ones. No thanks to Darnold. Bridgewater is a good bridge QB and what that franchise will need if they deal Watson. Teddy B's current contract is 21 million per year, for a backup level QB. If the Texans are just looking to play for a few years at their current level untill they can get a franchise QB, then might as well pick up Fitzpatrick for almost half that much.
mannc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: Of course it will. Texans aren't desperate to get rid of him right now. After a year of sitting out, they would be very desperate. That changes the offer in any transaction. What you’re saying is inarguably true. Doc just likes to make categorical statements with nothing to back them up. He’s done it throughout this thread.
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Doc said: Why would they be desperate? They're recouping the money they've paid him and again they would have had a bad record with or without him. And teams will still want him. Again, they don't have to trade him this year, sot they can sit back and entertain offers. He may play after all. If he sits out, they will have to trade him-- he would be useless to them. Why would teams offer the same after the guy put himself on the shelf for a year (after his only elite career year)? 2 minutes ago, mannc said: What you’re saying is inarguably true. Doc just likes to make categorical statements with nothing to back them up. He’s done it throughout this thread. Give him a few more pages and he'll come around, like it was his thought all along...
BuffaloRebound Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Teddy B's current contract is 21 million per year, for a backup level QB. If the Texans are just looking to play for a few years at their current level untill they can get a franchise QB, then might as well pick up Fitzpatrick for almost half that much. Fair enough about Bridgewater’s contract. He’s due $17m in 2021 and $20m in 2022. That’s a lot for a bridge QB. Fitz at $10m is better option. But I’d still take Bridgewater over Darnold.
Doc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 36 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Again, they don't have to trade him this year, sot they can sit back and entertain offers. He may play after all. If he sits out, they will have to trade him-- he would be useless to them. Why would teams offer the same after the guy put himself on the shelf for a year (after his only elite career year)? Why wouldn't they offer them the same in a year's time? Will he suddenly have forgotten how to play football? That makes no sense. 36 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Give him a few more pages and he'll come around, like it was his thought all along...
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said: Fair enough about Bridgewater’s contract. He’s due $17m in 2021 and $20m in 2022. That’s a lot for a bridge QB. Fitz at $10m is better option. But I’d still take Bridgewater over Darnold. I don't think we've seen the best of Darnold. Teddy has shown all he's got. He's essentially TT with a reattached leg. 30 minutes ago, Doc said: Why wouldn't they offer them the same in a year's time? Will he suddenly have forgotten how to play football? That makes no sense. Already explained. Buyers smell a desperate seller.
Doc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Already explained. Buyers smell a desperate seller. You didn't even come close to explaining why the Texans would need to feel/be desperate in a year's time.
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, Doc said: You didn't even come close to explaining why the Texans would need to feel/be desperate in a year's time. Ok doc.
Doc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Ok doc. Oh wait, it was the "smell."
TheFunPolice Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Doc said: Why would they be desperate? They're recouping the money they've paid him and again they would have had a bad record with or without him. And teams will still want him. Deal making 101. Someone has something you want and they don't want to sell it, and don't need to. You need to come in with a crazy deal just to get their attention. Once you do that, they see how desperate you are for it and ask for even more. Don't want to pay it? OK. They weren't looking to make the deal, you were. And you'll be back, trying to "meet halfway" as you negotiate against yourself and end up offering even more than your already insane "get their attention" offer. That's the position the Texans are in right now, but it is not going to last. The price for Watson's rights is at its peak now. Right now the Texans can say they have no desire to trade him and that he will play, and maybe he will. It's still believable, to some degree, that he is their QB. If I'm Houston I can say You want him? The price is going to really, really hurt. If we even have the conversation. You are going to have to blow us away, because he's our guy. All the pressure in that deal is on whichever team tries to get Houston's attention. Now if Watson eventually refuses to play for the Texans, and even sits out and starts to miss games things change. Now if I'm Carolina (for example) I realize that the Texans are in a tough spot. The longer this is an issue the more and more impossible it becomes for Watson to put the Texans uniform on and take the field for them. Thus, they either make a move by trading him or squander the chance to turn a mess into a win for them by digging in. Sure, he will still have value, but now I know Houston has a real problem and I'm more likely to want a good deal. The one who makes the phone call is in the weaker position, value of the deal-wise. That's fine, if you want the deal badly enough, but if it gets to the point where the Texans are calling teams back the offers will go down. 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: Teddy B's current contract is 21 million per year, for a backup level QB. If the Texans are just looking to play for a few years at their current level untill they can get a franchise QB, then might as well pick up Fitzpatrick for almost half that much. Fitz >>>> Bridgewater. Super nice guy but he is at best a game manager. 1
CincyBillsFan Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 3 hours ago, NewEra said: You really think that a running back (with a 13-16 mill cap hit) and 2 1st rd picks is the best they can do for Watson? BOB is no longer running the team. Maybe CMC + 2 1sts + a mix of 2nds and 3rds. Houston isn’t trading a draft pick that will be used on a QB that a team hopes will be a great QB. They are trading the best QB that will ever be traded in the prime of his career. First off I don't think they will trade Watson. My response was that in the event they had no choice landing CMC and 2 first round picks would be excellent. As for CMC how quickly we forget his 2019 season. He is one of only 2 RB's IMO who can carry a team on his back with the other being Henry. In the modern era of football where super talented QB's throw the ball all over the field and desperate D-coordinators try to take away the intermediate & deep ball by allowing the check down pass, CMC could be a game changing player. CMC has never played with a great QB who was a real threat to push the ball down the field. Yet even with defensive coordinators knowing that CMC was the Panthers only viable offensive threat in 2019 he had over 100 catches WHILE rushing for well over 1,000 yards. If you put CMC in the hands of a truly creative offensive coordinator who is operating a robust passing attack he would be close to unstoppable. This is why if there is even the remotest chance the Bills could get CMC they should do it even if meant not signing another free agent. Like Thurman Thomas was the key ingredient to the Bills glory years CMC, Allen & Diggs would be an unstoppable trio who would put the Bills into multiple Super Bowls. 1
GunnerBill Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: I don't think we've seen the best of Darnold. Teddy has shown all he's got. He's essentially TT with a reattached leg. I think Teddy is a more accurate thrower than Tyrod and he has never really been a running QB. He had 200 yards as a rookie but it was trending down his 2nd year before the injury ahead of his 3rd season and would have continued to regardless IMO because he is a pocket QB. So he is different to Tyrod in that respect. Where he is similar is he does not throw guys open and he holds the football too long waiting for a guy to be college open. Kinda like Tua did this past year too. Teddy has never developed beyond that. Too safe of a decision maker. I agree we haven't seen the best of Darnold. If Darnold is available and I am say Washington or New England or Pittsburgh that is who I'd be calling about. Frankly that's where I'd have gone first if I was Indy too. If I am going to take a punt on a maybe this year because I am not in a position to draft a guy then Darnold would be that maybe. 1
Doc Posted February 25, 2021 Posted February 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said: Deal making 101. Someone has something you want and they don't want to sell it, and don't need to. You need to come in with a crazy deal just to get their attention. Once you do that, they see how desperate you are for it and ask for even more. Don't want to pay it? OK. They weren't looking to make the deal, you were. And you'll be back, trying to "meet halfway" as you negotiate against yourself and end up offering even more than your already insane "get their attention" offer. That's the position the Texans are in right now, but it is not going to last. The price for Watson's rights is at its peak now. Right now the Texans can say they have no desire to trade him and that he will play, and maybe he will. It's still believable, to some degree, that he is their QB. If I'm Houston I can say You want him? The price is going to really, really hurt. If we even have the conversation. You are going to have to blow us away, because he's our guy. All the pressure in that deal is on whichever team tries to get Houston's attention. Now if Watson eventually refuses to play for the Texans, and even sits out and starts to miss games things change. Now if I'm Carolina (for example) I realize that the Texans are in a tough spot. The longer this is an issue the more and more impossible it becomes for Watson to put the Texans uniform on and take the field for them. Thus, they either make a move by trading him or squander the chance to turn a mess into a win for them by digging in. Sure, he will still have value, but now I know Houston has a real problem and I'm more likely to want a good deal. The one who makes the phone call is in the weaker position, value of the deal-wise. That's fine, if you want the deal badly enough, but if it gets to the point where the Texans are calling teams back the offers will go down. As of right now, Watson is basically saying he's done with the team and will sit out. Teams see this. The thing is, the Texans aren't even fielding calls for him so no one is coming in with any deal, crazy or otherwise. So even if he were to sit out next year and gets traded next off-season, we'll never know what the Texans lost by waiting a year. But he will have just as much value next year as this year because he'll still be a top-5 QB and several teams will have an interest in him. That won't change by sitting-out a year. The only thing that will happen is he'll lose money and that just might change his mind about sitting out, which is probably what the Texans are hoping happens. Again they can be a bottom-3 team just as easily without him as with him. 2
Recommended Posts