A brutally honest look at the Bills' playoff games

[dave mcbride]

22 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

The way I see it, the two biggest weaknesses of Edmunds' game are his information processing and his inability to get off blocks. Whereas, his best strengths are his physical tools and athleticism. If you put him in a situation where he isn't being asked to get off blocks, and where the other team's coaches aren't setting him up to mentally fail, odds are he'll have a good game. Sometimes a rock solid game. When either of those things cease to be true, odds are he'll have a bad game.

 

Will he overcome these limitations or weaknesses in year 4 or year 5 of his career? Maybe, but unlikely. Are you okay living with a middle linebacker who has these limitations? That depends on what your goal is. A guy like that will do well in a lot of his regular season games, but will let you down when he faces a Frank Reich or an Andy Reid or some other opposing coach who set him up to mentally fail. Would these limitations be less relevant at OLB than they are at middle linebacker? That's possible, and I'd be willing to at least entertain the idea of having Edmunds and Milano swap positions. In a perfect world Milano gives you an upgrade at middle linebacker due to being better at information processing, and Edmunds gives you an upgrade at OLB over Milano due to having better physical tools. Not saying that this is how things would pan out, just that it's an option to consider. If Milano is too small for middle linebacker, could he bulk up?

 

Jerry Hughes had 4.5 sacks during the 2019 regular season, and another 4.5 sacks during the 2020 regular season. He only missed one game during the course of those two years. Which is a better use of cap space: paying $9 million per season to an aging and relatively ineffective pass rusher, or paying a young, proven player like Milano $13 million per season? My vote is to use the money on Milano. You blamed Edmunds' poor pass defense statistics in part on a lack of a pass rush. Well, you're paying Jerry Hughes $9 million per year to be a pass rusher. When a guy who's supposed to be your best pass rusher comes up with 4.5 sacks per season, that's part of the problem!

 

You really should read the in depth analyses of LBs and d-linemen by @Majbobby  that he posted in the last couple of days. They are very informed and may (or may not) change your mind.

 

As for Hughes, he had 2 fumble recoveries, a pick, a defensive TD and a pretty fair number of pressures. He also had a 75.3 rating from PFF (quite high) this year, for what that’s worth: https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/jerry-hughes/5556.

 

I never understand fans wanting to get rid of pretty good team leaders who almost never get hurt, especIally in what looks to be a pretty bad pass rush draft. More importantly, you need to address his playoff performances. They are actually more important games than rando games vs. the Jets in week 3.

Edited January 28, 2021 by dave mcbride

[QCity]

If you want brutal honesty this Bills team, as a whole, did not play particularly well in any of their 3 playoff games this postseason.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

A lot could be said but way too conservative all around.

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

Sounds like many of you/us are identifying Edmunds as a guy playing out of position so far in the NFL. 

 

Who thinks he'd be a much better fit either at SLB or WLB in a 4-3, or even more so at basically ANY spot at LB in the 3-4? I've seen 3-4 ILB mentioned once or twice the past few days. Personally, I keep imagining him as a 3-4 OLB, or a standup EDGE guy in whatever alignment. He HAS played that spot a couple times this past season, in fact (against San Fran and New England, I believe). As a standup EDGE his size and athleticism would be more important than his processing and "instincts." Plus he could probably still put on 10-15 LBs and be a scary specimen. 

 

These aren't exactly new ideas here on the boards, at all, but I am seeing posts in this thread that seem to be saying this without wanting to actually say it. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

7 minutes ago, QCity said:

If you want brutal honesty this Bills team, as a whole, did not play particularly well in any of their 3 playoff games this postseason.

 

They played good against the Ravens , just didn't score a lot of points, but holding them to 3 points and harassing Jackson the whole game was impressive.

 

 

[Coffeesforclosers]

The team needs size and speed.  Not full blown "bully ball" type defense or "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type offense, but something.  Say a D-Line in the old Jets style, with three guys in the 310-315 range that are interchangeable at the 1, 3 and 5 techs with a floating Pass Rush specialist/blitzer.  On offense we need bad, bad men at OG, and a one-cut sledgehammer of an RB that punishes Dime and Nickel looks.  Josh, coupled with the sort of running game that says you can put LBs on the field to cover, or you can keep DBs on the field to tackle, would be a nightmare.

 

And if McD could poach Joe D'Alessandris back from Baltimore to coach OL, I'd be alright with that.  

Edited January 28, 2021 by Coffeesforclosers

[Buffalo Barbarian]

13 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Sounds like many of you/us are identifying Edmunds as a guy playing out of position so far in the NFL. 

 

Who thinks he'd be a much better fit either at SLB or WLB in a 4-3, or even more so at basically ANY spot at LB in the 3-4? I've seen 3-4 ILB mentioned once or twice the past few days. Personally, I keep imagining him as a 3-4 OLB, or a standup EDGE guy in whatever alignment. He HAS played that spot a couple times this past season, in fact (against San Fran and New England, I believe). As a standup EDGE his size and athleticism would be more important than his processing and "instincts." Plus he could probably still put on 10-15 LBs and be a scary specimen. 

 

These aren't exactly new ideas here on the boards, at all, but I am seeing posts in this thread that seem to be saying this without wanting to actually say it. 

 

I wouldn't mind seeing him at end , plus he could drop back easily in zone blitzing plays. He definitely plays better when he doesn't have to think and MLB has tons of that.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Buffalo Barbarian

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

I wouldn't mind seeing at end , plus he could drop back easily in zone blitzing plays. He definitely plays better when he doesn't have to think and MLB has tons of that.

 

 

You really think he could be successful with his hand in the dirt? Wouldn't that illuminate his other apparent weakness? Aside from a lack of instincts, posters here also observe his inability to get off blocks against linemen. Obviously any EDGE guy spends a lot of snaps going up against OTs, but the further off the ball they lineup the more likely they are to matchup against TEs, RBs, even WRs. Or at least have a running start/some space when dealing with o-linemen. 

 

We're not exactly disagreeing, but 4-3 DE is the only position (within reason) I DIDN'T suggest. I know 4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs are somewhat interchangeable. But Edmunds to me seems uniquely suited to being a versatile 3-4 LB all over the formation. Or, at least, use him more creatively in the current defense. Let Klein play the Mike full-time, and use Edmunds all over the place: DE, OLB, S, SCB...wherever the matchups make sense. Let him use his length and speed to disrupt. Give him very specific jobs. 

 

Possibly related: man I miss Lorenzo Alexander.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

24 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

You really think he could be successful with his hand in the dirt? Wouldn't that illuminate his other apparent weakness? Aside from a lack of instincts, posters here also observe his inability to get off blocks against linemen. Obviously any EDGE guy spends a lot of snaps going up against OTs, but the further off the ball they lineup the more likely they are to matchup against TEs, RBs, even WRs. Or at least have a running start/some space when dealing with o-linemen. 

 

We're not exactly disagreeing, but 4-3 DE is the only position (within reason) I DIDN'T suggest. I know 4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs are somewhat interchangeable. But Edmunds to me seems uniquely suited to being a versatile 3-4 LB all over the formation. Or, at least, use him more creatively in the current defense. Let Klein play the Mike full-time, and use Edmunds all over the place: DE, OLB, S, SCB...wherever the matchups make sense. Let him use his length and speed to disrupt. Give him very specific jobs. 

 

Possibly related: man I miss Lorenzo Alexander.

 

Well there is no way in Hell we are switching to a 34 so rush end would be it.

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Well there is no way in Hell we are switching to a 34 so rush end would be it.

 

 

There is room for more creative alignments under McDermott.

 

Due to his uncommonly diverse skillset, Lorenzo Alexander, for example, lined up all over the front-7.

 

Even Edmunds himself lined up on the edge in what I think was essentially a 5-1-5, against the 49ers and Patriots* (him and Hughes on the edges with Klein off the ball in the middle).

 

I think the Bills D should tap into that kind of matchup-driven creativity more often. Give a guy like Edmunds more of a narrowly-defined role on each play. Let someone else read-and-react. 

[Arm of Harm]

3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The solution will never be Christian Wade. 

 

Fixed. 🙃

[Bangarang]

Just now, Arm of Harm said:

 

Fixed. 🙃

There’s nothing that indicates Wade is the solution to anything. It’s a cool story but it’s getting weird that people think a guy who has only played, errr mostly practiced, organized football for 2 years is going to come in and suddenly start playing at a high level against some the best football players in the world. 

[Arm of Harm]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I agree with most of your observations, but not sure I like your solutions all that much!

 

#1 Defensive Coaching.  I agree with the bend but don't break concept is what they are playing allowing them to move the chains.  But they've played the same the past two seasons with much better success.  This year though they were bending much more and even breaking more frequently was the issue.  So think the concept might still be fine, but need better players to reduce the frequency of successful drives by the opponent.

 

#2 Defensive Line is a big issue, but drafting a pass rusher may help the defense in maybe 2023, but not next season.  This team is poised next year to make a deep run as IMO next years schedule is more forgiving so this is their chance.  For that reason would rather they sign an actual star FA edge rusher.  I'm fine with getting rid of Butler and Addison to pay this new guy with.  Think I would keep Jefferson though as can play multiple positions and is still only 26 I believe.  The Bills have used a fair amount of draft resources on the Dline as they've drafted; Oliver, Johnson, Epinosa, and Phillips, plus as stated Jefferson is only 26 so it's not like they've ignored this position.

 

The Bills philosophy is we're going to wear you down with our depth and keep rotating solid, but not great players out there.  In 2018 and 2019 it worked, this year not nearly as well.

 

#3 and #4  Agree with waiting a year on Edmunds and drafting an O-lineman pretty high, 2nd round sounds good.  A lot there will also depend on what happens between Morse, Feliciano, and Williams IMO likely only two of the three will be back, which two not certain.  Of the three would prefer Morse being the odd man out.

 

#5  Running Back I don't think Christian Wade is the answer as big of a mess as the running game was this year.  I think I'd go with Williams ahead of him, but from a fan perspective wouldn't want to count on either being the solution for next season.  Obviously the coaches have seen much more of those two, and maybe they think one of them is ready, or they feel the biggest issue was run blocking.  Would make me nervous if Wade or even Williams is their best answer.

 

#6 Tight End is like drafting an edge rusher.  You could draft a TE who in 4 years will be better than Kerce and Gronk combined, but counting on him as a rookie to look better than Knox is a stretch. TE is one of the harder positions to learn.  For those reasons would give Knox another year, though is likely they will want/need at least a #2 TE to replace Kroft, unless they feel Sweeney is ready for that role.  But that's risky with the heart condition he had as could just as easily be medically retired.

 

#1: I think the better offensive coaches in the league have figured out how to attack the soft spots in the already soft zone. The defense's problems are not just a player issue. They are also a scheme issue, especially when facing offenses designed to pick you apart with underneath passes.

 

#2: I'd have absolutely no objection to them signing a star FA pass rusher, assuming that 1) they have the cap space to make it work, and 2) that such a player is available in free agency. To get the needed cap space they'll have to be very disciplined about not overpaying anyone.

 

#3: Do you feel the Bills should upgrade the center position?

 

#5: Of the RBs who are 3rd or lower on the depth chart, Christian Wade is the one who's made the best impression on me thus far. But he was given very little playing time in his first preseason, and his second preseason was canceled due to Corona. What I'd like to see is a return of the preseason, as well as giving abundant preseason playing time to the 3rd or lower RBs on the roster. Let the play on the field decide which of those guys, if any, deserves more playing time in the regular season.

 

#6 I hear what you're saying about TEs taking time to develop. With this team having made it to the AFC Championship Game, there's an argument for drafting a "now" player to give you that last little push. I'll grant that neither a pass rusher nor a TE is necessarily a now player. But, I'd argue that the Bills' window of opportunity is however long Josh Allen is able to maintain an elite level of play. For me personally, I'd like a player who can help us next year of course. But more importantly I want whichever player can do the most to help over the long term.

 

The counterargument to that is that once Josh Allen signs his extension, a large portion of the salary cap will be consumed by his contract. That will decrease the team's ability to surround him with good talent. However, I'm not overly impressed with the talent he's been surrounded with now, except at WR and defensive secondary. Even with his share of the salary cap greatly increasing, I believe we can do a better job of surrounding him with talent in the future, for many years to come, than the job we did this year. If I'm right about that, it reinforces the point that the Bills have a long Super Bowl window.

 

[97bills]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Again, he is 22, he has a more durable frame than Milano, and he's a better athlete. He's also asked to do far, far more. Don't get me wrong; I like Milano, and I know Edmunds needs to improve. But I'm not paying $13-14 million per for Milano, and with that upside, you gotta believe Edmunds can be coached up to come closer to reaching his potential. Hughes' cap number is a little over $9 million, and that's a fair price for a good-not-great DE who is also a team leader who can still bring it in big games (as he's done repeatedly). People forget that in the 2017 must-win finale vs. Miami, he had the highest graded game of any DE that year, if I recall correctly. And he had a great game vs. Jax the next week. Basically, he shows up when it matters. More guys like him, please.

In 2017 you do no it’s 2021 and next season will run into 2022 huges is a rotation player at best now and didn’t sniff rivers or mahomes in the playoffs we need a guy who can bring it every week not one memory in 2017 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

#1: I think the better offensive coaches in the league have figured out how to attack the soft spots in the already soft zone. The defense's problems are not just a player issue. They are also a scheme issue, especially when facing offenses designed to pick you apart with underneath passes.

 

#2: I'd have absolutely no objection to them signing a star FA pass rusher, assuming that 1) they have the cap space to make it work, and 2) that such a player is available in free agency. To get the needed cap space they'll have to be very disciplined about not overpaying anyone.

 

#3: Do you feel the Bills should upgrade the center position?

 

#5: Of the RBs who are 3rd or lower on the depth chart, Christian Wade is the one who's made the best impression on me thus far. But he was given very little playing time in his first preseason, and his second preseason was canceled due to Corona. What I'd like to see is a return of the preseason, as well as giving abundant preseason playing time to the 3rd or lower RBs on the roster. Let the play on the field decide which of those guys, if any, deserves more playing time in the regular season.

 

#6 I hear what you're saying about TEs taking time to develop. With this team having made it to the AFC Championship Game, there's an argument for drafting a "now" player to give you that last little push. I'll grant that neither a pass rusher nor a TE is necessarily a now player. But, I'd argue that the Bills' window of opportunity is however long Josh Allen is able to maintain an elite level of play. For me personally, I'd like a player who can help us next year of course. But more importantly I want whichever player can do the most to help over the long term.

 

The counterargument to that is that once Josh Allen signs his extension, a large portion of the salary cap will be consumed by his contract. That will decrease the team's ability to surround him with good talent. However, I'm not overly impressed with the talent he's been surrounded with now, except at WR and defensive secondary. Even with his share of the salary cap greatly increasing, I believe we can do a better job of surrounding him with talent in the future, for many years to come, than the job we did this year. If I'm right about that, it reinforces the point that the Bills have a long Super Bowl window.

 

 

#1 Coaching.  Could be teams have figured it out, so then up to McD and Frazier to make some more tweaks and/or get some better players.  Definitely the D line needs to get better.

 

#3  Not sure which positions specially needs improving, but if they do sign two out of the three as I mentioned, they are then still at least one starter short.  If Morse goes likely via being cut (unless retires due to concussions) and they sign Felicinao, they could move him to center, then need a guard.  One way or another very likely will need at least one new starter, maybe two.

 

#5  All we've seen of Wade was in meaningless pre-season games and Williams in blow out of Miami when they were running for the bus as they say.  So not sure I like either of them for a team trying to go deep into playoffs.  Think I was something more solid there.

 

Allens contract isn't likely going to be an issue in 2021 or even 2022 and it's an extension that kicks in after he's completed his rookie contract that will include the 5th year option.  Look at Mahomes, he signed extension this past July, but he still had a low cap him this year 2020, and even next year 2021 is reasonable.  In 2022 it jumps up over $30 mil.  Allen if signing this spring/summer would be one year behind so not a huge issue till the 2023 season.

 

Likely the Bills will have to mortgage the future this year to some degree and extend some people further than they'd ideally like to do to free up enough money to make moves now.  KC did it last year.  It can bite you in the long run, but the one thing in the Bills favor is many of their star players are still young, so won't out live their contracts.  But someone like a Jerry Hughes could.

[Arm of Harm]

27 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

There’s nothing that indicates Wade is the solution to anything. It’s a cool story but it’s getting weird that people think a guy who has only played, errr mostly practiced, organized football for 2 years is going to come in and suddenly start playing at a high level against some the best football players in the world. 

 

Let's say you were to make a list of players who were preseason stars before getting a chance to play in the regular season. Fred Jackson's name would be on that list. Stevie Johnson's name would be on it. As would Nate Peterman's. Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson show that players who do well in the preseason can also do well in the regular season, while the Nate Peterman example shows that a guy who's great in preseason might not be so great during the regular season.

 

Christian Wade did exceptionally well during the handful of plays they gave him during the preseason. Was that just a lucky fluke? Maybe. But I think that those plays, along with his rugby accomplishments, together indicate that you might want to take a closer look. Give him more snaps in the preseason and see what he does with them. If he proves to be a disappointment, then you wasted some preseason reps which could have gone to some other player instead. But, you'd also have proof that you were right about him and that I was wrong, and that's got to be worth something! If on the other hand he does something good with his opportunity, then you've just found your speed runningback, without having to use any draft picks or any significant amount of salary cap space.

 

 

 

 

[Arm of Harm]

13 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

#1 Coaching.  Could be teams have figured it out, so then up to McD and Frazier to make some more tweaks and/or get some better players.  Definitely the D line needs to get better.

 

#3  Not sure which positions specially needs improving, but if they do sign two out of the three as I mentioned, they are then still at least one starter short.  If Morse goes likely via being cut (unless retires due to concussions) and they sign Felicinao, they could move him to center, then need a guard.  One way or another very likely will need at least one new starter, maybe two.

 

#5  All we've seen of Wade was in meaningless pre-season games and Williams in blow out of Miami when they were running for the bus as they say.  So not sure I like either of them for a team trying to go deep into playoffs.  Think I was something more solid there.

 

Allens contract isn't likely going to be an issue in 2021 or even 2022 and it's an extension that kicks in after he's completed his rookie contract that will include the 5th year option.  Look at Mahomes, he signed extension this past July, but he still had a low cap him this year 2020, and even next year 2021 is reasonable.  In 2022 it jumps up over $30 mil.  Allen if signing this spring/summer would be one year behind so not a huge issue till the 2023 season.

 

Likely the Bills will have to mortgage the future this year to some degree and extend some people further than they'd ideally like to do to free up enough money to make moves now.  KC did it last year.  It can bite you in the long run, but the one thing in the Bills favor is many of their star players are still young, so won't out live their contracts.  But someone like a Jerry Hughes could.

 

#1. A month or two ago a poster with 716 in his name wrote some top shelf posts about how the Bills' defense had been figured out. This guy was a highly expert poster, and really knew what he was talking about. I believed what he'd written. Then after he'd written those things the Bills' defensive coaching staff was totally dominated by the offensive coaching staffs of the Colts and Chiefs.

 

If McDermott and Frazier are brutally honest with themselves about how badly the Bills' defensive coaching was dominated by those two teams in the playoffs, they'll have taken the first step towards fixing the problem. It's easy to get into certain habits, certain assumptions, patterns. Breaking those things is hard and takes a strong will. Admitting you got totally and completely out-coached (which the Bills clearly did in those two games) gives you the strength of will necessary to shatter those old habits and assumptions, so that new habits can be put in their place.

 

#3. I'm not completely sold on Feliciano, at least not as a long-term answer as a starter. I'm not happy with his performance against the Chiefs! If you're right about Morse, the offensive line might be in need of a new starting center and new starters at each OG position.

 

#5. I don't blame you for wanting something more solid than Wade's handful of preseason plays or the Williams performance against a demoralized Miami defense. But normally, to get "solid" you have to allocate a fairly early draft pick, or a significant amount of salary cap space. I personally would prefer to save those draft picks and salary cap space for other positions. If neither Wade nor Williams nor any of the other 3rd string or lower RBs pans out, you still have Singletary and Moss.

 

[Bangarang]

58 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

Let's say you were to make a list of players who were preseason stars before getting a chance to play in the regular season. Fred Jackson's name would be on that list. Stevie Johnson's name would be on it. As would Nate Peterman's. Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson show that players who do well in the preseason can also do well in the regular season, while the Nate Peterman example shows that a guy who's great in preseason might not be so great during the regular season.

 

Christian Wade did exceptionally well during the handful of plays they gave him during the preseason. Was that just a lucky fluke? Maybe. But I think that those plays, along with his rugby accomplishments, together indicate that you might want to take a closer look. Give him more snaps in the preseason and see what he does with them. If he proves to be a disappointment, then you wasted some preseason reps which could have gone to some other player instead. But, you'd also have proof that you were right about him and that I was wrong, and that's got to be worth something! If on the other hand he does something good with his opportunity, then you've just found your speed runningback, without having to use any draft picks or any significant amount of salary cap space.

 

 

 

 

There is a massive difference between giving an inexperienced guy a shot and calling him a solution. One is reasonable and the other is just silly.

[Arm of Harm]

2 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

There is a massive difference between giving an inexperienced guy a shot and calling him a solution. One is reasonable and the other is just silly.

 

That's a very reasonable distinction. In general, I sometimes don't give enough thought to how my posts might come across to others, which can result in situations where I'm trying to say one thing but people are hearing something different. In this case I labeled a paragraph a "solution" when I should have labeled it a "recommended action."

[Buffalo Barbarian]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

There is room for more creative alignments under McDermott.

 

Due to his uncommonly diverse skillset, Lorenzo Alexander, for example, lined up all over the front-7.

 

Even Edmunds himself lined up on the edge in what I think was essentially a 5-1-5, against the 49ers and Patriots* (him and Hughes on the edges with Klein off the ball in the middle).

 

I think the Bills D should tap into that kind of matchup-driven creativity more often. Give a guy like Edmunds more of a narrowly-defined role on each play. Let someone else read-and-react. 

 

Im all for that , hopefully that happens