Simms breakdown of the game

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Never said that....The Diggs trade and Josh Allen’s massive improvement put them over the top.

 

I’m looking at individual players. Butler, Addison, Jefferson, and Klein were all given a substantial amount of money and all of them are pretty average players.(Klein played really well down the stretch though) Bad use of resources, IMO. 

It really depends on what you emphasize - going all in on stars and ignoring injury risk, or emphasizing risk management and building a deeper roster of potential starters. You can pay stars and hope that they never get hurt because what's behind them ain't gonna work, or you can pay a bunch of decent mid-level starting NFL players to mitigate the risk of collapse if stars get injured. I'm not saying one way is better than the other, but I do believe that injuries are so common that they have to be factored into team building. The Bills chose the second option for this season at least, and it basically worked even if it wasn't enough to make them competitive with the best team in the league. 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by dave mcbride

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I hadn’t seen this posted yet, but if it has, apologies. The basic takeaway: Simms sounds like us, and his recommendation — that the Bills need more Jimmies and Joes — makes a ton of sense. Specifically, he says they need one more top-level pass catching threat, an elite d-lineman that teams have to worry about, and another good cover corner.  That all makes sense to me (I’ve been thinking for a while that they need an upgrade at the other corner spot). 

 

I don’t get what Jimmies and Johns mean.  What is that about?
 

But Bills fans don’t want to face this reality but elite talent was the difference in this game.  Obviously not everyone can have Mahomes, Hill, and Kelcie but like Simms said they could have Allen, Diggs, and one more threat.

 

Agree completely about the defense.  Outside of Tre White, you have several above average players (Hyde, Poyer Hughes, Milano) and a few other solid contributors - but not really top end talent.    
 

Unfortunately I believe the Bills envisioned Edmunds and Oliver to be those elite players.  Unfortunately both are closer to being just average, Edmunds maybe a bit below.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

If there was ever a year to try and find gamechangers, this is it.  The cap situation will make some guys available who would normally never hit FA.  

 

See us with Matt Milano.  Some teams will look at him as a guy who wouldn't normally be available in FA.

 

We can create a good bit of cap space by cutting Butler, Jefferson, Addison and Brown, then restructuring a couple guys.  

 

IMO, Darryl Williams is the only must re-sign.

 

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks for McDermott (and Frazier, if he doesn't hire with the Texans).

 

They've built the defense around McDermott's philosophy, which I think someone analogized to playing against a boa constrictor: it just tries to wrap around you and hold you, then when you're in its grasp it opens its mouth and bites.  It's built around having a lot of good players who do their 1/11 vs say, 8 JAG and 3 stars.  And it obviously worked adequately to well against 15 or so teams.

 

The complete meltdown vs. KC has to have him questioning whether that philosophy needs substantive revision.  At least, it should have him questioning it.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Ed Oliver was supposed to be that d-lineman. Instead, he's a role player. This is extremely frustrating.

Instead, he’s a 1tech taking on 2 blockers all game.  While he’s not the player we’re hoping for, he took one for the team all season playing out of position.....hence allowing people to say that he’s not good....and doing someone else’s job.  287 lb 1 tech.  Good luck.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I don’t get what Jimmies and Johns mean.  What is that about?
 

But Bills fans don’t want to face this reality but elite talent was the difference in this game.  Obviously not everyone can have Mahomes, Hill, and Kelcie but like Simms said they could have Allen, Diggs, and one more threat.

 

Agree completely about the defense.  Outside of Tre White, you have several above average players (Hyde, Poyer Hughes, Milano) and a few other solid contributors - but not really top end talent.    
 

Unfortunately I believe the Bills envisioned Edmunds and Oliver to be those elite players.  Unfortunately both are closer to being just average, Edmunds maybe a bit below.  

This is now a common phrase: "It's not about the X's and O's; it's about the Jimmies and Joes" --meaning that coaching and schemes aren't decisive, but rather the talent level of the players on the field.

Edited January 27, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Alphadawg7]

People are over reacting to one game.  First, the real reason we lost this game was simply because KC secondary and pass coverage was by FAR the best game they played all year.  Their red zone defense was close to the worst in the NFL this year and we were the best in the Redzone, yet they managed to hold up several times with was the difference in the game.  

 

Never have I seen our receivers down field completely blanketed like that for much of the game.  Yes, Hill and Kelce killed us, but they kill most teams.  We knew that going in.  What no one really expected was the elite play of the secondary and stiff Redzone defense, at least not at the levels they played on Sunday.  

 

If we play that game 10 times, no way that secondary and Redzone defense holds up that well in all those games.  It is what it is, hats off to the Chiefs, their defense came up huge for them Sunday.  

 

So...we dont need to tear apart our team or have a complete shift in philosophy on how Beane builds this team.  They will make some roster decisions related to the cap and then they will target replacements and add some pieces where we need help.  I expect some BEEF to be added to our DL and that to be the top priority this offseason, and wouldn't be surprised to see some people acquired via trade, FA, or draft to challenge to start at CB, TE, and in the trenches.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, JohnNord said:

But Bills fans don’t want to face this reality but elite talent was the difference in this game.  Obviously not everyone can have Mahomes, Hill, and Kelcie but like Simms said they could have Allen, Diggs, and one more threat.

 

I don't see where "Bills fans don't want to face this reality"

 

Just now, JohnNord said:

Agree completely about the defense.  Outside of Tre White, you have several above average players (Hyde, Poyer Hughes, Milano) and a few other solid contributors - but not really top end talent.    
 

Unfortunately I believe the Bills envisioned Edmunds and Oliver to be those elite players.  Unfortunately both are closer to being just average, Edmunds maybe a bit below.  

 

You're exactly correct IMO.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Instead, he’s a 1tech taking on 2 blockers all game.  While he’s not the player we’re hoping for, he took one for the team all season playing out of position.....hence allowing people to say that he’s not good....and doing someone else’s job.  287 lb 1 tech.  Good luck.

 

In the game film I watched, Oliver is not playing 1TDT all game every game.  He still played a lot of 3TDT, in fact the most common rotation I saw was Oliver at 3TDT and Butler at 1TDT.    But Butler also played 3TDT at time as did even Harrison Phillips!!!  They basically had no one who wanted (or could) lock down the 1TDT spot, so they did it by committee.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In the game film I watched, Oliver is not playing 1TDT all game every game.  He still played a lot of 3TDT, in fact the most common rotation I saw was Oliver at 3TDT and Butler at 1TDT.    But Butler also played 3TDT at time as did even Harrison Phillips!!!  They basically had no one who wanted (or could) lock down the 1TDT spot, so they did it by committee.

He’s played a lot of 1 tech this season.  Not all 1 tech.  
 

like i said, he isn’t the player we were hoping to get, but he’s better than many here are making him out to be

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

A lot of people are wanting another Thurman. While that would be DOPE, how about another Bruce Smith, or Daryl Talley? 

We need both and it's not impossible to at least upgrade Singletary and Hughes. I'm not saying 2 HOFers will drop in our lap but we can do much better than this useless run game and pass rush.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

People are over reacting to one game.  First, the real reason we lost this game was simply because KC secondary and pass coverage was by FAR the best game they played all year.  Their red zone defense was close to the worst in the NFL this year and we were the best in the Redzone, yet they managed to hold up several times with was the difference in the game.  

 

Never have I seen our receivers down field completely blanketed like that for much of the game.  Yes, Hill and Kelce killed us, but they kill most teams.  We knew that going in.  What no one really expected was the elite play of the secondary and stiff Redzone defense, at least not at the levels they played on Sunday.  

 

If we play that game 10 times, no way that secondary and Redzone defense holds up that well in all those games.  It is what it is, hats off to the Chiefs, their defense came up huge for them Sunday.  

 

So...we dont need to tear apart our team or have a complete shift in philosophy on how Beane builds this team.  They will make some roster decisions related to the cap and then they will target replacements and add some pieces where we need help.  I expect some BEEF to be added to our DL and that to be the top priority this offseason, and wouldn't be surprised to see some people acquired via trade, FA, or draft to challenge to start at CB, TE, and in the trenches.  

This is the second time this happened against the Chiefs, though. The Bills had 206 yards of total offense when they faced them earlier (to the Chiefs' 466) and punted a ton of times. Allen was inaccurate on 24 percent of his throws too. This is the team they have to beat if they want to advance, and that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Chiefs basically dominated them twice, and in both games the Bills' offense was stymied. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Don Otreply]

33 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Couldn't agree more.  What a horrible roster Beane and McDermott put together this year.

 

They only made it to the AFC Championship game.  

 

Amateurs....

While I fully agree with your sarcasm, better use of currently available personnel / acquiring more impactful players in two or three other positions would certainly help, not just with competing against KC, but more handily beating the others team we play. Jmo. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Like A Mofo]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

A lot of people are wanting another Thurman. While that would be DOPE, how about another Bruce Smith, or Daryl Talley? 

 

 

I get what you mean about wanting another Bruce Smith but I think a lot of us throw that name around too casually.

 

Bruce Smith wasn't just an All Pro. He just wasn't a great player. Even more then a HOF. Bruce Smith IMO was a generational player at his position.

 

I'd settle for finding a JJ Watt type

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, the real reason we lost this game was simply because KC secondary and pass coverage was by FAR the best game they played all year.

 

That was a big reason but not the biggest. Their offense scored TDs at will. They could have picked their score but they stopped trying when the game was already out of hand. Our offense would have needed to play a flawless game to have a chance.

 

IMO we have 4 needs to take down KC. In order of importance they are:

1) Game changing edge rusher - This is how teams have beat Mahomes. If you can't get pressure with 4 you aren't stopping him. Unfortunately this is the biggest need but also the hardest to get. I would make a splash free agency signing even if it means Milano walks.

2) RB with speed and pass catching ability - This is the best way to attack their defense right now. They were giving Singletary no respect at all. A RB that can passes in the flat and accelerate is a huge mismatch against their LBs especially when they have to give so much respect to our receivers and leave a spy on Allen. This can be obtained in the draft.

3) Better #2 WR - John Brown is a serviceable receiver but not of the caliber you need to keep up with KC. We need someone opposite Diggs that they have to respect. I'd let Brown walk and draft a receiver on day 2. Maybe look into Allen Robinson if we can afford it.

4) Better #2 CB - Again, Wallace is just serviceable. You can put White on Hill or Kelce but the other one will run free. I would draft a CB and look into signing Sherman. Not gonna get a huge upgrade here but try to improve.

[Inigo Montoya]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

We had a great year, but as McDermott noted in his presser, every year is a new opportunity with new challenges. The sort of allocation priorities indicated in the posts you are disagreeing with are genuine issues. I believe McDermott recognizes them and that they will be addressed.

 

Hey Dr. Who.  I'm being flip with ScottLaw because he's a troll.

 

My point is that Beane and McDermott put together a fantastic roster this year that swept our division and made it all the way to the final four with a roster comprised of a lot of mid-range free agents signings.  Beane did this out of necessity.  He didn't have any other choice if he wanted to field a competitive roster this year.  I think McDermott put it pretty succinctly, the Chiefs are in year 8 of their build, the Bills are in year 4.  

 

Good teams are built through the draft.  It's a cliché because it's true.  Andy Reid has had 8 drafts to do that.  Beane hasn't.  Give Beane some more drafts to stock the roster with young talent on cheap rookie deals and we won't have to go out and sign a bunch of mid level free agents to market level contracts to fill out the roster.  Andy Reid doesn't go crazy in free agency, he doesn't have to, he has built his roster through the draft.

 

Beane isn't a fool, he can look at the roster and see that he has a lot of money tied up in mid level free agent players.  I suspect that after this year's draft we will have less of that, and following the next year's draft, even less.  Look at our likely roster next year and you will see it happening already.  Epenesa in, one of the free agent defensive ends out.  Gabe Davis in, John Brown out.  Cam Lewis or Dane Jackson in, Josh Norman out.  Ike Boettger in Brian Winters out.  It's a process.

 

Andy Reid made it to the AFC Championship game and lost in his 6th season in KC.  They won the Super Bowl in his 7th.  Beane started a total rebuild four years ago and we have already made it to the AFC Championship game. It looks to me that we are ahead of where KC was in their rebuild.  I have faith in Beane to continue to make smart draft picks and build this roster that same way KC has built theirs.  He just needs more time and more drafts to do it. 

 

This year Beane had no other choice than to fill in the gaps in the roster with mid-level free agents.  That will change.  Beane knows what he is doing.

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[DCbillsfan]

I think McD's D line rotation needs to go.  They are spending a lot of cap space and draft picks on 8 DL guys who don't get to the QB enough.

 

Get a DE who is a game changer and a game wrecker who will play most of the game if not all of it.  I know it will cost big $ but needs to be done.

 

Upgrade CB2.  How many games do we need to see that this is a weakness?

 

Draft a Center who plays LG in 2021.  In 2022, let Morse go and move draftee to Center.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep.... Their allocation of cap space last offseason was badly managed. Outside of the Diggs trade.....Butler, Addison, Jefferson, Klein are not impact players. They are borderline solid players but nothing spectacular and this team needs more stars. Specifically on the defensive line and another skill player offensively, IMO. 

 

I would argue that outside of Allen, and a couple other players who "might" develop into that, that is basically what we got out of Beane's drafts as well. These are picks from rounds 1-4 by Beane. Not bad, don't get me wrong. But not really any huge impact players in that bunch. 

Epenesa
Moss
Davis
Oliver
Ford
Singletary

Knox

Edmunds

Phillips

Taron Johnson

 

[JohnNord]

59 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't see where "Bills fans don't want to face this reality"

 

 

You're exactly correct IMO.

Haha what I meant is that everyone wants a scapegoat.  “McDermott cost us the game” or “Frazier’s scheme is too soft” is simpler than taking a deeper look into the matchups that gave the Bills trouble.

 

IMO the Bills lost to a football team that had elite talent in key positions that the Bills were weak in.  

[All_Pro_Bills]

16 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

I think McD's D line rotation needs to go.  They are spending a lot of cap space and draft picks on 8 DL guys who don't get to the QB enough.

 

Get a DE who is a game changer and a game wrecker who will play most of the game if not all of it.  I know it will cost big $ but needs to be done.

 

Upgrade CB2.  How many games do we need to see that this is a weakness?

 

Draft a Center who plays LG in 2021.  In 2022, let Morse go and move draftee to Center.

Three guys on the D line will probably get released once the 2021 off-season starts after SB55.  None of them played up to their 2020 contracts and carrying them under their 2021 cap number isn't a good allocation of cap money.    

 

Mario Addison 2021 cap hit 10.163M, dead cap hit $4M

Quinton Jefferson 2021 cap hit 8M, dead cap hit $1M

Vernon Butler 2021 cap hit 7.8M, dead cap hit $1M

 

Plus

John Brown 2021 cap hit 9.53m, dead cap hit $1.6M

 

Other possibilities

Tyler Matakevich 2021 cap hit 3.7M, dead cap hit 350K

A J Klein 2021 cap hit 6.4M, dead cap hit 4M

 

Moving those players off the roster would free up around $45M for signing Allen to an extension, a couple impact free agents and mid-tier players, and some raises for others on the roster.

 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they are going to abandon their scheme. I think they need to try and work in some wrinkles. I went back and watched the Pats play the Chiefs earlier in the season last night and they played a lot of 8 man coverage with man / zone combinations. Now admittedly the Pats are a bit more of a multiple coverage team than the Bills in the sense they mix man and zone as part of their standard coverage packages in any event. But I think that is a potential wrinkle for the Bills. A bit more combination coverage that plays zone but mans up the corners on the outside. They need a better #2 corner to make that an option because even though I'm not talking about leaving them on a island it does require better 1 on 1 skills than Levi Wallace possesses. It is those sorts of wrinkles that I think they need to look at schematically and then they just need more speed on defense. More Jimmys and Joes. Because we were just outplayed by better talent on Sunday as much as anything. They need edge rush desperately, nobody beats the Chiefs without it so it seems. 

 

This also reminds me of the "unbeatable" Pats teams that the Giants took down 2x--the way the Giants were built on D was perfect to disrupt Brady's normally unflappable & efficient O, namely, intense pressure generated even without the blitz, by having monsters capable of crashing the front of the pocket with no extra rushers required. 

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/50776/beating-tom-brady-and-patriots-involves-using-blueprint-provided-by-giants

“Definitely create a dirty pocket to where he’s not comfortable.” Brady said passing against the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI was “like throwing in a forest." Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul batted down a pair of passes. Michael Strahan had a batted pass in the 2008 contest. “That’s what we wanted to do. That’s what [Brady] does anyway,” Umenyiora said. "The edge rush doesn’t really bother him much. You need to have some really good interior rushers.”

 

Side note--the Giants D coordinator for their 2007 season SB win over the Pats? Steve Spagnuolo--who of course we just saw in KC.